COVID-19: Scrimmage games | July 23 (NBATV), 26 (NBATV), 28 (FSSW) for DAL

[mtrot]

Doesn't it all depend on the work going into testing for the virus? I look at it as if everyone is tested going into (closed game with no fans) and out of the arena, then there isn't much harm in it. 

Testing is far from perfect. Data at this point estimates the sensitivity of the available testing may be as low as 70% meaning there are many false negatives.

My neighbor, who is a hospital nurse, says they are seeing some false negative results.  To the extent that is true, it could mean that more people have contracted the virus, which would in turn mean that the denominator is larger, which would in turn mean that the actual mortality rate is lower.  Also, the new serology tests will help clarify how many people have actually contracted the virus.  My opinion is that, as the actual mortality rate in the US approaches that of the seasonal flu, momentum will build for at least partially opening back up the economy.  As to how soon contact sports could resume, that's a tough question, and may take a lot longer.

[Jannemann2]

Do we have any other medical workers on this board? What is your experience?
In my hospital in Berlin things are still normal. We have seperate ERs and ICUs for COVID-19 patients. If possible workers from the COVID unit are separated from the remaining nurses and physicians. As of now the situation is still under control and we don´t have any shortages (well maybe gloves). Maybe it´s just the calm before the storm. The case numbers are still growing exponentially.
Before I started working I moved out of the house. My fiance and her sister (plus child) are living together and I moved into my soon to be sister in law´s apartment. Sucks to be alone but it´s better to be safe than sorry.

Watching from europe the situation in the US is really concerning. I don´t think we will see any basketball in the summer. It seems like testing started way to late and the virus spread all over the east and west coast. Only a matter of time before the virus will shut down the rest of the country as well.
Delayed peaks in different states make it even more difficult. NY could be over the worst in a few month (just like Wuhan) but at the same time other states will probably see a peak or just enter lockdown mode.

Two of my closest friends are physicians working in german hospitals in Hamburg and Hessen; sister in law is a nurse engaged with a nurse. Last updates from a few days ago were: things relatively quiet but overall numbers of patients and number of patients with severe conditions slowly increasing. I think Germany does a relatively good job in identifiying the cases with harmless symptoms, explaining the low number of fatal cases compared to the overall known cases.
I'd expect a jump in patients who need intensive care during the next days even so we could have done enough to avoid a breakdown of the medical system for know. Things still fine at your site?

Thumbs up for protecting your family (and the rest of us )!

Greetings from the homeoffice of a stressed IT guy with a 3 year old who tries to ensure all the remoteworkers acutally can access the company resources at home, have new ways to communicate, etc ...

Sucks to have to cancel summer holidays the one year in recent memory I managed to book it early and still pay part of the rent ...

But family is healthy so far, jobs are relatively safe compared to others.

Keep working, keep breathing, keep laughing, guys!

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Doesn't it all depend on the work going into testing for the virus? I look at it as if everyone is tested going into (closed game with no fans) and out of the arena, then there isn't much harm in it. 

Testing is far from perfect. Data at this point estimates the sensitivity of the available testing may be as low as 70% meaning there are many false negatives.

My neighbor, who is a hospital nurse, says they are seeing some false negative results.  To the extent that is true, it could mean that more people have contracted the virus, which would in turn mean that the denominator is larger, which would in turn mean that the actual mortality rate is lower.  Also, the new serology tests will help clarify how many people have actually contracted the virus.  My opinion is that, as the actual mortality rate in the US approaches that of the seasonal flu, momentum will build for at least partially opening back up the economy.  As to how soon contact sports could resume, that's a tough question, and may take a lot longer.

There's testing and testing.

I think the PCR based tests (detecting virus RNA) which are the main tests used up to now are quiet good (highly sensitive, highly specific), but I hear the number of viruses in the throat is heavily reduced while the disease proceeds (even in bad cases) because the main activity of the virus travels down into the lungs. So the probes for testing need to be taken the right way.

Some of the new Antibody based tests that come up now are probably fine (while a lot are not scientifically validated so far), but to detect antibodies against the virus, antibodies need to be there. It takes time for an infected person to develop antibodies so there's a period up to about 10 days where this antibody based tests are completely blind and cannot detect the disease. They could be useful to detect already developed immunity to the disease so.

From what I hear, people are waiting for antigene based tests (detecting the virus proteins). These could be specific, sensitive, cheap and easy enough to take for more widespread testing and would offer quicker results than the PCR tests done in specialized testing facilities/laboratories. But these are probably at least few weeks away (4-6 weeks is the hope for Germany if I remember correctly).

Still need the tests to be available in high quantities to do extensive testing. For Germany, the estimate is we do about half a million tests a week with the PCR based tests. Tests are only taken when people show typical symptoms AND had contact with an infected person or have been in high risk areas. Still only a low percentage of the tests taken are postive so far, suggesting that it doesn't make sense to test the whole population at the moment balancing the necessary resources  and what you could learn from the results. That might be different in other countries where the fatality rate suggests a 10fold higher number of undetected cases.

[burekemde]

Testing is far from perfect. Data at this point estimates the sensitivity of the available testing may be as low as 70% meaning there are many false negatives.

My neighbor, who is a hospital nurse, says they are seeing some false negative results.  To the extent that is true, it could mean that more people have contracted the virus, which would in turn mean that the denominator is larger, which would in turn mean that the actual mortality rate is lower.  Also, the new serology tests will help clarify how many people have actually contracted the virus.  My opinion is that, as the actual mortality rate in the US approaches that of the seasonal flu, momentum will build for at least partially opening back up the economy.  As to how soon contact sports could resume, that's a tough question, and may take a lot longer.
[/quote]

Too much could/might/perhaps/speculation in this. The reality in countries where the outbreak is further ahead seems very different tough. It is way more deadly than the seasonal flu.

Just look at the dead bodies in Italy and Spain. Never happens with the flu. Only the Spanish Flu did this. Look at buildings where only the old are living, they are dying in vast numbers. These are local cases, and not population wise, that illustrates well how it hits the old people.

Another even more thing more important than mortality. Its the infection rate. Nobody is immune. It means everyone will get this if exposed to it. That number is much lower with the flu as there is some herd immunity and spread over many years.

The biggest fear is how much higher the mortality seems to be without treatment in hospital. 90 percent of people in italy die not being able to get to hospital or under way while those that recieve treatment are doing better. That is number reason that everything should be closed in order to not get in situation where hospitals are overloaded. Opening up the country soon is a recipe for major disaster.

[DrMav]

Part of my job involves work in the ICU. It hasn’t hit my region of the country bad, yet, but it is spreading and the situation in Italy and what is developing in New York is what myself and all my colleagues dread being faced with.

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There's testing and testing.

I think the PCR based tests (detecting virus RNA) which are the main tests used up to now are quiet good (highly sensitive, highly specific), but I hear the number of viruses in the throat is heavily reduced while the disease proceeds (even in bad cases) because the main activity of the virus travels down into the lungs. So the probes for testing need to be taken the right way.

The PCR swans are what is being utilized primarily. The specificity is hard to say since we aren’t doing viral culture or have another “gold standard” to compare to, but is probably excellent. The sensitivity, however, does seem to be much worse and may be as low as 70%. Seems that the method of obtaining does play a role as well.

For any confused on sensitivity/specificity, sensitivity is basically “if someone has the disease, the likelihood the test will detect it” meaning false negatives lower it. Specificity is “if someone doesn’t have the disease, the likelihood the test will be negative” meaning false positives will lower it.

In the context of COVID-19, this means we are seeing a fair amount of false negatives via the swab and probably not seeing very many false positives.

[mtrot]

Stay at Home order just issued here in Smith County for two weeks, with a total of 27 cases.  Of those 27, 24 are in Tyler.  Seven cases are said to be travel related and 20 of them are said to be community spread.  I guess I'll be doing a lot of work in the yard.

[Hypermav]

Stay at Home order just issued here in Smith County for two weeks, with a total of 27 cases.  Of those 27, 24 are in Tyler.  Seven cases are said to be travel related and 20 of them are said to be community spread.  I guess I'll be doing a lot of work in the yard.

We did the same in Gregg County yesterday and the streets and open stores are like somebody stepped on an ant bed.  Chick-Fil-A still has their ever present line...  We have 4 whopping cases at my last count.

[ClutchDirk]

I got lucky enough to get a Presidential Order for the Company I work for as exempt from the stay at home. I have to keep working. We had 900 employees in the building yesterday.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thinking about BBall for the first time in a while.  Hollinger article below seems well thought out to me.  Every team finishes the season with five games (Dallas would finish the season with 72 games played.  LAL would only get in 69).  Doesn't really matter as these five games are simply there to get teams back in basketball shape.  Next up playoff play-in.  This gives teams 9-15 some reason to show up.  Top six in each conference are safe.  7 & 8 would essentially play the winner of a single elimination tournament among everyone else.  8 & 9 would line up in the same bracket as would 7 (Dallas) and 10 (New Orleans).  It would be frightening to have to put a season's worth of accomplishment on the line in a single game.  But, if you don't do something like that, what reason to teams 9-15 have to show up for the final five regular season games.  Single elimination would make for some compelling TV.


https://theathletic.com/1696891/2020/03/...ould-work/

[Hypermav]

If 7 and 8 were double elimination against the lottery field, then I would be fine with that format.  Current non playoff teams should not be given a 1 game winner take all against a current top 8 team imo.  

Any way you slice it, the Clippers are probably the toughest opponent to start with for the Mavs.  

Maybe Cuban can get the league to reseed all 16 teams into one bracket instead of East vs West.  

We still play the Clippers in that format.  

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/GetUpESPN/status/124...7091755008

[Mavs2019]

Thinking about BBall for the first time in a while.  Hollinger article below seems well thought out to me.  Every team finishes the season with five games (Dallas would finish the season with 72 games played.  LAL would only get in 69).  Doesn't really matter as these five games are simply there to get teams back in basketball shape.  Next up playoff play-in.  This gives teams 9-15 some reason to show up.  Top six in each conference are safe.  7 & 8 would essentially play the winner of a single elimination tournament among everyone else.  8 & 9 would line up in the same bracket as would 7 (Dallas) and 10 (New Orleans).  It would be frightening to have to put a season's worth of accomplishment on the line in a single game.  But, if you don't do something like that, what reason to teams 9-15 have to show up for the final five regular season games.  Single elimination would make for some compelling TV.


https://theathletic.com/1696891/2020/03/...ould-work/

If this was well thought out, every team would finish with the same amount of games. You simply cannot determine anything with a different amount of games played. Least amount a play-off team has played is 64 (Lakers), most is 67 (Mavs). So it´s an even 70 games. 10 day regular season. Then straight into the post season. Best of 5, best of 5, best of 5, best of 7. Play every other day. Next rounds starts immediately, when all games of the previous round have concluded. That means it will take a maximum of 43 days to complete the play-offs. That means it will take two months to complete all the games. 

Expiring contracts are extended until the completion of the 2019/2020 season. All the salaries are guaranteed. If a player suffers a long-term injury during that extended timeframe, the NBA covers his salary for the 2020/2021 season, too.

Realistic timeframe:

NBA draft + season build up (August)
NBA season (September/October)
Free agency (November)
Training camp (December)
Season start (Christmas)

[StepBackJay]

Feels like the options to me are the following:

1. Cancel the season, award conference "winners" with some kind of lame award in lieu of a championship trophy and call it a day.
2. Hold a very quick tournament in the middle of the summer, maybe in 1 location with no fans even to have something that looks like a playoff. You might not even call it the Larry O'Brian trophy. It could actually use the same type of format they are wanting to use for the regular season tournament. Players would be away from their families and all in one place so you could minimize the impact and this assumes that Covid cases are in steep decline over the summer. You could get in done in a couple of weeks.
3. Keep postponing until you are left with option 1 again.

[michaeltex]

Stay at Home order just issued here in Smith County for two weeks, with a total of 27 cases.  Of those 27, 24 are in Tyler.  Seven cases are said to be travel related and 20 of them are said to be community spread.  I guess I'll be doing a lot of work in the yard.

We did the same in Gregg County yesterday and the streets and open stores are like somebody stepped on an ant bed.  Chick-Fil-A still has their ever present line...  We have 4 whopping cases at my last count.

We're up to 8 now. Not as dire as Dallas or Houston. I keep hoping people will start paying attention sooner rather than later.

I'm over the worst of my basketball withdrawal DTs...

[MrGoat]

Really good visualization of the official stats over time in this video compared to the other epidemics of this century



We really need to flatten that curve soon

[mtrot]

Really good visualization of the official stats over time in this video compared to the other epidemics of this century



We really need to flatten that curve soon

Well, the tough question is, what if, after April, we have not flattened the curve?  What then?  I can see one more month of this economic shut down, but after that, we better start letting people go back to work, or there won't be an economy sufficient to keep the federal government afloat.

[Jannemann2]

The other side of the story ...

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/pathogen_resistance.png

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from https://xkcd.com

[MrGoat]

Really good visualization of the official stats over time in this video compared to the other epidemics of this century



We really need to flatten that curve soon

Well, the tough question is, what if, after April, we have not flattened the curve?  What then?  I can see one more month of this economic shut down, but after that, we better start letting people go back to work, or there won't be an economy sufficient to keep the federal government afloat.

Well that's not even the right question to ask because the federal government will be just fine because they have the 'Federal' Reserve to bail them out, but that would be a looooooong conversation about currency and central banks and I don't want to get too political on a basketball board. 

The real question is more when would letting non essential workers go back to work not be even more detrimental to the economy than staying locked down will be, and that timing is tricky

[IamDougieFresh]

Morey started it but China definitely finished it lmao

[ClutchDirk]

On Friday, ESPN's Brian Windhorst shared the latest school of thought from the league's inner circle, noting there is increased pessimism the NBA can resume the 2019-20 campaign:
"The talks between the players union and the league this week, I've talked to both sides of this issue, and it is clear that the NBA is angling to set up a deal that enables them to shut the season down.
"Now they don't have to do that yet, and the way they're negotiating they're leaving themselves an option either way, but they're not having talks about how to restart the league, they're having financial talks about what would happen if the season shuts down, and I think there is a significant amount of pessimism right now."

[Mavs2019]

These billionaires really get on my nerves. You have nurses, doctors, postman, bus drivers, productions workers in supply industries etc. put their lives on the line every day for shitty wages, while these guys worry about burning some 500M dollar holes in their 2B dollar pockets. Money they all make back in three months, when they invest in the crashed stock market. Why should a single player give up 1% of their salary, when some owners fire lower-level staff.