10 hours ago
I decided to take up the challenge presented by dirkfan's comment to FGump that the team as is didn't have a lot of talent. Back in the golden years when we had Dirk and then Luka, I used to evaluate players we had on the basis of what their role would be on a championship team at that point, to pinpoint what our quantitative needs were in terms of talent quotient. So here's how I look at the roster at the close of the season (presuming a healthy Kyrie and a putatively healthy Lively at the beginning of next season) in order of the talent value of the player (which is not the same as the trade value or longevity issue):
Cooper: Right now, I'd say he rates as a very low level Robin. However, simply looking at the gargantuan BBIQ-based Matrix-I-know-Kung-Fu growth over the course of his rookie season, his maturity, and the completeness of his game, I think that's a huge coronation of how fantastic he is already. Re: Coop vs. Luka's rookie year: Luka of course represents heliocentrism, whereas, this year, Coop (with one single other player, below) *was* the offense this year. Enormous difference. Let him play with some other guys who can score, and watch him explode. If he can get his NBA-range three consistent through hard work this summer (and this young man has the work ethic), he becomes a quite solid Robin. Given what his trajectory and work ethic have already shown us, I think it's clear that the only thing that could existentially prevent him from being a rock-solid Batman by the beginning of year 3 would be major injury problems in the second year. That's it.
Kyrie: 3rd best player on a championship team if he's ready by opening night, which I certainly presume he will be. He was low-level Robin level pre-injury. I think it's pretty risible to assert the possibility of him returning at the same level given the injury and his age.
Naji Marshall: 6th-man quality, if not 6th-man role. A much more reliable create-his-own-shot scorer than PJ, but a fair amount weaker on D. Obviously becomes reasonable contender-level starter if he somehow gets his 3 to 40%.
PJ: Prior to the Luka trade, I would have said 4th-best contender starter quality. With how poor he's played this year, I don't know what to say. I'd say 7th-best quality at this point, but perhaps he bounces back if the team's creation and collective defense improve.
Gafford: Depends on which Gafford we get. They ran lots of pick and rolls with him and Coop at the end of the year and he looked like his old self. Lots of folks saying, "Gaff is just useless here without Luka because he can't do what he's good at." Tell me you didn't watch the last 15 games without telling me you didn't watch the last 15 games. I seem to recall that Kyrie runs a pretty good pick and roll too. If they do that consistently next year, he's more than fine as at least a 20-24 minute center. 7th man level quality based on that.
Lively: Anywhere from 5th-best on a contending team to no place on a contending team. We just don't know how reliable he's going to be next year.
Cisse: Given his motor and talent level, I think he's a fine backup center, even on a contending team. 9th man level.
I would argue that Christie, Bagley, and Middleton are all 10th-man level at this point. Perhaps Klay as well, though I'd prefer to look at him like '11 Peja - 11th man who can help you by playing a role extremely well in a pinch, but not reliably. Nembhard and Williams (due to no D) as 11th men. Powell as a 12th man/locker room presence. Poulakidas 12th man with a bullet. Martin far deep bench. Smith 2-way, Johnson not an NBA player.
In all, after looking at this, I'd have to agree with Dirkfan overall. This is at best a fringe playoff team next year without major moves, and a lot of that hinges on hitting a home run with our lottery pick. I think you need Kyrie around next year for the sake of Flagg and our draftee's (if he's worth caring about in that way) continued growth and maturity, but I could see some value in selling off Naji, PJ, and Gafford, as well as Klay if someone is dumb enough to give you anything for him. I would lean toward keeping Naji and even Gafford unless someone really wows you with value though. As for Lively, I want to see what the new medical staff (please be Casey and co.) says about him before putting him on the market.
Cooper: Right now, I'd say he rates as a very low level Robin. However, simply looking at the gargantuan BBIQ-based Matrix-I-know-Kung-Fu growth over the course of his rookie season, his maturity, and the completeness of his game, I think that's a huge coronation of how fantastic he is already. Re: Coop vs. Luka's rookie year: Luka of course represents heliocentrism, whereas, this year, Coop (with one single other player, below) *was* the offense this year. Enormous difference. Let him play with some other guys who can score, and watch him explode. If he can get his NBA-range three consistent through hard work this summer (and this young man has the work ethic), he becomes a quite solid Robin. Given what his trajectory and work ethic have already shown us, I think it's clear that the only thing that could existentially prevent him from being a rock-solid Batman by the beginning of year 3 would be major injury problems in the second year. That's it.
Kyrie: 3rd best player on a championship team if he's ready by opening night, which I certainly presume he will be. He was low-level Robin level pre-injury. I think it's pretty risible to assert the possibility of him returning at the same level given the injury and his age.
Naji Marshall: 6th-man quality, if not 6th-man role. A much more reliable create-his-own-shot scorer than PJ, but a fair amount weaker on D. Obviously becomes reasonable contender-level starter if he somehow gets his 3 to 40%.
PJ: Prior to the Luka trade, I would have said 4th-best contender starter quality. With how poor he's played this year, I don't know what to say. I'd say 7th-best quality at this point, but perhaps he bounces back if the team's creation and collective defense improve.
Gafford: Depends on which Gafford we get. They ran lots of pick and rolls with him and Coop at the end of the year and he looked like his old self. Lots of folks saying, "Gaff is just useless here without Luka because he can't do what he's good at." Tell me you didn't watch the last 15 games without telling me you didn't watch the last 15 games. I seem to recall that Kyrie runs a pretty good pick and roll too. If they do that consistently next year, he's more than fine as at least a 20-24 minute center. 7th man level quality based on that.
Lively: Anywhere from 5th-best on a contending team to no place on a contending team. We just don't know how reliable he's going to be next year.
Cisse: Given his motor and talent level, I think he's a fine backup center, even on a contending team. 9th man level.
I would argue that Christie, Bagley, and Middleton are all 10th-man level at this point. Perhaps Klay as well, though I'd prefer to look at him like '11 Peja - 11th man who can help you by playing a role extremely well in a pinch, but not reliably. Nembhard and Williams (due to no D) as 11th men. Powell as a 12th man/locker room presence. Poulakidas 12th man with a bullet. Martin far deep bench. Smith 2-way, Johnson not an NBA player.
In all, after looking at this, I'd have to agree with Dirkfan overall. This is at best a fringe playoff team next year without major moves, and a lot of that hinges on hitting a home run with our lottery pick. I think you need Kyrie around next year for the sake of Flagg and our draftee's (if he's worth caring about in that way) continued growth and maturity, but I could see some value in selling off Naji, PJ, and Gafford, as well as Klay if someone is dumb enough to give you anything for him. I would lean toward keeping Naji and even Gafford unless someone really wows you with value though. As for Lively, I want to see what the new medical staff (please be Casey and co.) says about him before putting him on the market.
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