2026 NBA draft thread

[mvossman]

My basic analysis would be rim + floater + 3pt percentage. If you are good at all three that means you know how to protect the ball around the rim and finish through contract and creatively. Floater is also an exit strategy that requires quick thinking and touch. Add a good 3pt percentage and I´d say you have a strong baseline.

Based on that it´s Burries, Philon and Acuff, while staying clear of Flemings, Wagler, Stirtz and Brown. Then those are also the oldest guys and Philon was nowhere near this polished 12 months ago.

That's the thing.  How much better would the other guys look if they had an extra year like Burries and Philon?  Philon made huge jump in sophomore year and we see that a lot (the exception is Acuff who is young and already good at these things).  Its one thing to assess how good these guys are now, but projecting how much better they will in their third year in the NBA is much trickier.

This is why I have a soft spot for Wagler.  He is a late bloomer and those tend to develop better long term.  He already has good size, is a quality playmaker and an elite three point shooter.  Once he adds a little muscle to that frame he should be better at the rim.

[michaeltex]

I've only watched the one Arkansas game against High Point, and I have to say that watching Acuff is a treat. Definitely took over the game offensively but the entire starting 5 made big contributions.

The High Point PG, Martin, was an under-6' pest who was not afraid to speed by everybody to get to the rim. I did see Acuff at least try to slow him down, but nobody did it well. I don't know that Acuff will help defensively, but if he'll at least try, then the offensive pressure he brings will make up the difference.

IMO, anyways.

[vfromlmf]

It's exciting to see so many of the top 8 or 9 players "rising" to the top of the board. By definition, if one guy goes up, anther guy goes down, so you could see a guy like Flemings fall to 7 or 8 through no fault of his own. Flemings is still doing everything that made him the consensus no 5 pick two weeks ago. And Peterson is only falling relative to pre-injury or inflated expectations. Despite all the weird stuff, he's still been a heck of a shot maker and disruptive defender. He might not be the next Shae or Kobe but he looks like he could be an elite point-of-attack defender, who can handle, and make threes.

[Chicagojk]

It's exciting to see so many of the top 8 or 9 players "rising" to the top of the board. By definition, if one guy goes up, anther guy goes down, so you could see a guy like Flemings fall to 7 or 8 through no fault of his own. Flemings is still doing everything that made him the consensus no 5 pick two weeks ago. And Peterson is only falling relative to pre-injury or inflated expectations. Despite all the weird stuff, he's still been a heck of a shot maker and disruptive defender. He might not be the next Shae or Kobe but he looks like he could be an elite point-of-attack defender, who can handle, and make threes.

I agree.  Who knows if anything has changed with scouts but I personally like how Fleming has competition.  For most of the season he was the default number 5.  Maybe he still is.  Although you are also seeing some guys may be getting some love above five.  Not every team will have the same ranking.  Getting a difference of opinion on these guys is the fun part.

[mvossman]

I agree.  Who knows if anything has changed with scouts but I personally like how Fleming has competition.  For most of the season he was the default number 5.  Maybe he still is.  Although you are also seeing some guys may be getting some love above five.  Not every team will have the same ranking.  Getting a difference of opinion on these guys is the fun part.

I think Acuff is the only player with a good chance to move ahead of Flemings.  I have seen Wagler mocked ahead of him, but I doubt that happens.

[Winter]

I think Acuff is the only player with a good chance to move ahead of Flemings.  I have seen Wagler mocked ahead of him, but I doubt that happens.

Agreed. I think Flemings will have the opportunity to showcase his skills with the next game or two (and Houston will likely be favored over Illinois). Arkansas has a much harder hill to climb with AZ.

But you have to love Thursday night with Burries, Acuff, Wagler, and Flemings all playing. For pick #30, Swain is playing as well ....along with Cenac, Krivas, and Stirtz.

[mvossman]

Agreed. I think Flemings will have the opportunity to showcase his skills with the next game or two (and Houston will likely be favored over Illinois). Arkansas has a much harder hill to climb with AZ.

But you have to love Thursday night with Burries, Acuff, Wagler, and Flemings all playing. For pick #30, Swain is playing as well ....along with Cenac, Krivas, and Stirtz.

I have not looked much yet into late first round guys, but everything I have read about Swain (Longhorn fan) is that he will go before 30.

[Winter]

I have not looked much yet into late first round guys, but everything I have read about Swain (Longhorn fan) is that he will go before 30.

Originally he was slotted in the second round (Tankathon still has him at #32 but that was 20 days ago). He's gotten buzz recently though as Texas advanced. Given the fact that a few late rounders will go back to school, I also suspect he will be chosen in the late first round (as will Isaiah Evans I think). Both Evans and Swain looked like good prospects, but I doubt either one will be there when the Mavs pick.

There are some interesting players in the second round, but it seems lacking in SG\SF types. Henri Veesaar is an interesting 7' center at that spot. Good 3-point shooter (and shoots a pretty high volume) and a good defensive rebounder. It's possible he's gone in the first round as well.

[Smitty]

Originally he was slotted in the second round (Tankathon still has him at #32 but that was 20 days ago). He's gotten buzz recently though as Texas advanced. Given the fact that a few late rounders will go back to school, I also suspect he will be chosen in the late first round (as will Isaiah Evans I think). Both Evans and Swain looked like good prospects, but I doubt either one will be there when the Mavs pick.

There are some interesting players in the second round, but it seems lacking in SG\SF types. Henri Veesaar is an interesting 7' center at that spot. Good 3-point shooter (and shoots a pretty high volume) and a good defensive rebounder. It's possible he's gone in the first round as well.

You've hit on most of the names I've targeted for the Mavs with that late pick also. The only ones missing are Aday Mara, Meleek Thomas, and Christian Anderson. 
For me, I'd have them stacked like this: I. Evans, D. Swain, A. Mara, C. Anderson, M. Thomas, H. Veesaar. 

If the Mavs love any one or two of them, I think they'll have to trade up to make sure they get 'em. You never really know how it's going to go in the late first/early second. Like you said, some of these guys will go back to school and get another bag. Overall, I'd be really happy with any one of those guys on my list, whether it's a trade up or stand pat at 30.

[Winter]

You've hit on most of the names I've targeted for the Mavs with that late pick also. The only ones missing are Aday Mara, Meleek Thomas, and Christian Anderson. 
For me, I'd have them stacked like this: I. Evans, D. Swain, A. Mara, C. Anderson, M. Thomas, H. Veesaar. 

If the Mavs love any one or two of them, I think they'll have to trade up to make sure they get 'em. You never really know how it's going to go in the late first/early second. Like you said, some of these guys will go back to school and get another bag. Overall, I'd be really happy with any one of those guys on my list, whether it's a trade up or stand pat at 30.

Yeah, Mara has looked really good recently.... maybe too good to still be there. Meleek Thomas I've followed for awhile since he's a Razorback, but he hasn't quite made the cut for me. He's played well lately though, and might be available at that spot. Anderson of course is someone we should target if possible, but all these guys will likely be gone I think.

Another guy that isn't listed anywhere is Allen Graves at Santa Clara. He's suddenly getting a lot of buzz now. He's a 6'9 forward who has some nice stats. Good passer and good defender. Might be this year's Cedric Coward. Santa Clara just lost to Kentucky in the first round. Allen scored 17 points in that game. He looks like strong competitor for the Carlos Boozer look-alike contest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Wj0fFSJiRk

NBA Rumors just said this today: 

• Allen Graves, from Santa Clara, was not expected to be a significant player in the 2026 draft, but he has impressed with his defense and passing, according to Woo. Graves may still be best served by spending another year in college and working on his jumper, but the 6’9″ forward has fans in the NBA and a strong pre-draft process could put him in position to be drafted this season, Woo notes.
  

[Smitty]

Yeah, Mara has looked really good recently.... maybe too good to still be there. Meleek Thomas I've followed for awhile since he's a Razorback, but he hasn't quite made the cut for me. He's played well lately though, and might be available at that spot. Anderson of course is someone we should target if possible, but all these guys will likely be gone I think.

Another guy that isn't listed anywhere is Allen Graves at Santa Clara. He's suddenly getting a lot of buzz now. He's a 6'9 forward who has some nice stats. Good passer and good defender. Might be this year's Cedric Coward. Santa Clara just lost to Kentucky in the first round. Allen scored 17 points in that game. He looks like strong competitor for the Carlos Boozer look-alike contest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Wj0fFSJiRk

NBA Rumors just said this today: 

• Allen Graves, from Santa Clara, was not expected to be a significant player in the 2026 draft, but he has impressed with his defense and passing, according to Woo. Graves may still be best served by spending another year in college and working on his jumper, but the 6’9″ forward has fans in the NBA and a strong pre-draft process could put him in position to be drafted this season, Woo notes.
  

I haven’t watched Graves. The only thing I know about him is the No Ceilings guys are pretty high on him.

[michaeltex]

Regarding the #30 pick...

Since it's a FRP, there is 3 years of guaranteed money attached, correct? It was ~$2.75M last year (120% of scale), and will likely stay about the same this year, based on recent cap information.

So my question is whether or not it is worth it to take on 3 years of guaranteed money, at just under vet minimum $$, or trade back into the 2nd round where you have more flexibility in contract negotiations? Something like #30 for two SRPs, or a young developing player with a year or two experience?

I'm asking because NIL money will make some players go back to school if they think they'll draft higher next year, so late FRPs may be just selecting from the SRP pool anyway. So why tie up salary, even if it is relatively minor in the scheme of things? Instead, you still get rights and can put them on a "make me love you" deal. Just don't screw it up like they did with Brunson's contract and lose the RFA leverage at the end.

[F Gump]

I agree.  Who knows if anything has changed with scouts but I personally like how Fleming has competition.  For most of the season he was the default number 5.  Maybe he still is.  Although you are also seeing some guys may be getting some love above five.  Not every team will have the same ranking.  Getting a difference of opinion on these guys is the fun part.

I suspect that with scouts and team evaluators, they aren't nearly as fickle as we are.

Another thing we have to consider is that the various rankings we see online (such as tankathon) might never have been "accurately" reflecting the views of NBA teams. We look mostly at game stats, and they consider so much more.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I haven’t watched Graves. The only thing I know about him is the No Ceilings guys are pretty high on him.

Less athletic Robert Covington meets a taller Thybulle with an outside shot?

[DanSchwartzgan]

I suspect that with scouts and team evaluators, they aren't nearly as fickle as we are.

Another thing we have to consider is that the various rankings we see online (such as tankathon) might never have been "accurately" reflecting the views of NBA teams. We look mostly at game stats, and they consider so much more.

I agree.  I will point out that (I believe) Tankathon moves players around to generate page views.  One day Burries is #10 and the next he’s #16 and he didn’t have a poor performance in the interim.  In fact, just the opposite (and as of today is back at #10).

I’ve long been dubious that all of these PG prospects will go one after another.  There just aren’t that many teams needing PG’s.  If the ratings are fairly close, some of these teams will draft for need or for a position of greater usefulness.  I wonder what teams will do with the senior Lendeborg if Michigan goes all the way.  Ready to contribute immediately,  but more of a finished product in terms of upside from here.

[F Gump]

Regarding the #30 pick...

Since it's a FRP, there is 3 years of guaranteed money attached, correct? It was ~$2.75M last year (120% of scale), and will likely stay about the same this year, based on recent cap information.

So my question is whether or not it is worth it to take on 3 years of guaranteed money, at just under vet minimum $$, or trade back into the 2nd round where you have more flexibility in contract negotiations? Something like #30 for two SRPs, or a young developing player with a year or two experience?

I'm asking because NIL money will make some players go back to school if they think they'll draft higher next year, so late FRPs may be just selecting from the SRP pool anyway. So why tie up salary, even if it is relatively minor in the scheme of things? Instead, you still get rights and can put them on a "make me love you" deal. Just don't screw it up like they did with Brunson's contract and lose the RFA leverage at the end.

Good question. 

If I'm sitting there at 30 and I see no one I like all that much, then trading out and picking up extra future draft capital to do so makes sense. 

OTOH if there's a player I like to a strong degree that's sitting there to be taken, I would never trade down. Trade down and the player you like plus all the decent choices may be gone. 

As for whether pick 30 this year has any real potential, while it's possible NIL options might whittle down the choices, there's no guarantee a future draft will offer something better. Some years, by the time you get to round pick 25 or 30, it's all junk. This draft looks better than that.

[Winter]

I agree.  I will point out that (I believe) Tankathon moves players around to generate page views.  One day Burries is #10 and the next he’s #16 and he didn’t have a poor performance in the interim.  In fact, just the opposite (and as of today is back at #10).

I’ve long been dubious that all of these PG prospects will go one after another.  There just aren’t that many teams needing PG’s.  If the ratings are fairly close, some of these teams will draft for need or for a position of greater usefulness.  I wonder what teams will do with the senior Lendeborg if Michigan goes all the way.  Ready to contribute immediately,  but more of a finished product in terms of upside from here.

The question of the age of draft picks came up in a podcast I was watching. 

It's a really a discussion of "upside". I'm not entirely sure, but I suspect the media draft analysts don't much factor in age when ranking players (or at least not as much). Analysts anlyze how a player will look on team A. What does he bring to a team and what are his skills? 

A team GM, however, is different. A GM has to imagine what skill that player will need to work on and how long will it take before the player is the absolute optimum player drafted. How will he look when his rookie contract comes up? Can his problem areas be fixed? How long will it take? 

If you get an older player, you don't want many problem areas. Guys like Lendeborg are interesting, because most of his metrics are pretty advanced at age 23-24. But you have to be sure - maybe a bit more sure - than if you drafted someone younger.

I personally think Lendeborg is starter material on some team. It won't be the Mavs, but I'm interested to see how he progresses in the NBA.

[Winter]

I agree with Dan about Tankathon. I don't really believe it fully evaluates player progress and history. I'm not exactly sure how it works, but I just see it as a list of talked about players.

In fact, I'm not entirely sure how I feel about any mock draft to be honest. I think if we could sneak a peek at some GM evaluations, we'd have a better sense player rankings.

[michaeltex]

Aren't all mock drafts just exercises in hand waving at this point? Until the draft order is established and we know who will actually be available, it's wishful thinking.

But it's fun to dream about a better future with the present looks so bleak.

[khaled1987]

Regarding the #30 pick...

Since it's a FRP, there is 3 years of guaranteed money attached, correct? It was ~$2.75M last year (120% of scale), and will likely stay about the same this year, based on recent cap information.

So my question is whether or not it is worth it to take on 3 years of guaranteed money, at just under vet minimum $$, or trade back into the 2nd round where you have more flexibility in contract negotiations? Something like #30 for two SRPs, or a young developing player with a year or two experience?

I'm asking because NIL money will make some players go back to school if they think they'll draft higher next year, so late FRPs may be just selecting from the SRP pool anyway. So why tie up salary, even if it is relatively minor in the scheme of things? Instead, you still get rights and can put them on a "make me love you" deal. Just don't screw it up like they did with Brunson's contract and lose the RFA leverage at the end.

Someone more educated in this regard could correct me, but there are few advantages for 30th pick over 2nd round pick, beside picking earlier (remember Desmond Bane and Tyrell Terry?)
First, it is just 2 years contract, not 3. So for example, Cooper Flagg has only next year guaranted money, but we will have to decide before next season starts. So, it is very rare that teams don't pick 3rd year unless they are sure he is total bust. Still, if the player is bad, you can cut your loss so early, money is only attached for 2 years.

OTOH, if the players turns out good? he is on 4 years contract and then RFA, unlike 2nd round picks, who you can have them on 3 years contract and then RFA, or 4 years contract and URFA (Brunson). 

I don't see the money being an issue in that regard, you shouldn't be thinking about it at that point of the draft, there is easier ways to save money.

OTOH