2026 NBA draft thread

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Let's say the Mavs were to land the 2nd pick and Dybantsa had gone first. Would you have the ballz to trade down to #5 and pick Acuff? I would, especially if it netted other considerable assets. I don't view Peterson or Boozer so much higher than Acuff that I would think it’s a colossal blunder. I'd take Acuff, a future 1st and a young piece (Tre Johnson/Keyshawn George, Egor Demin, or Isaiah Collier/Ace Bailey if someone is gobsmacked for Peterson.

[Scott41theMavs]

Let's say the Mavs were to land the 2nd pick and Dybantsa had gone first.  Would you have the ballz to trade down to #5 and pick Acuff?  I would, especially if it netted other considerable assets. I don't view Peterson or Boozer so much higher than Acuff that I would think it’s a colossal blunder. I'd take Acuff, a future 1st and a young piece (Tre Johnson/Keyshawn George, Egor Demin, or Isaiah Collier/Ace Bailey if someone is gobsmacked for Peterson.

I'm thinking Peterson falls below Acuff at this point, but maybe I'm exaggerating. Point being, trading down to 5 and thinking you're going to get Acuff might be dangerous.

[Scott41theMavs]

Mavs most likely spot to pick (roughly 50%) is 7 or 8.  Most likely the draft will go something like:

Dybansta
Boozer
Peterson
Wilson
Acuff
Flemings

That means Mavs will be picking from a group including some of Wagler, Brown, Burries, Philon

The next most likely spot is top 4 (roughly mid 30s percent).  Most folks on the board (and most folks in NBA circles) feel that you should target top talent over things like fit.  That means Mavs would likely grab one of those first 4 guys in the list.

Anything else will be an outlier.  If Mavs managed to finish 6th worst (I have no illusions they can make 5th) then they have a 9 percent change of getting 6th pick (at 7 they have zero chance) and if they finish 7th they have a 14% chance of finishing worse than 8th.

If the Mavs pick fourth and the odd man out of the so-called Big Four is Peterson, I would break things if the Mavs didn't take Flemings or Acuff.

[KillerLeft]

Mavs most likely spot to pick (roughly 50%) is 7 or 8.  Most likely the draft will go something like:

Dybansta
Boozer
Peterson
Wilson
Acuff
Flemings

That means Mavs will be picking from a group including some of Wagler, Brown, Burries, Philon

The next most likely spot is top 4 (roughly mid 30s percent).  Most folks on the board (and most folks in NBA circles) feel that you should target top talent over things like fit.  That means Mavs would likely grab one of those first 4 guys in the list.

Anything else will be an outlier.  If Mavs managed to finish 6th worst (I have no illusions they can make 5th) then they have a 9 percent change of getting 6th pick (at 7 they have zero chance) and if they finish 7th they have a 14% chance of finishing worse than 8th.

It's really starting to sink in how much of a missed opportunity ending in the 6th-7th spot might end up being.

[Mavs2021]

Based on this data set, why am I not hearing Stirtz in any of these discussions? 19.7/2.7/4.5 with 1.5 steals on 48/36/84 shooting percentages. Not as flashy as some of the top 5 and a little older, but looks to be a solid player. Is it an age thing (22)? Maybe this is his ceiling instead of his floor?

Well the fact that he is projected 1st round is actually a credit to his ability. The Murray brothers are the only other players from Iowa picked in the top 40 in the last 22 years and then Tankathon´s reference ended.

[mvossman]

Spot on. I think there's a case that if the Mavs land at 4, they could talk themselves into Acuff or Flemings though. When I did my "feelings" about each potential prospect, I wasn't talking about where they were drafted, just that they were Mavericks. AJ-Boozer-Wilson-Acuff were my top 4, so who knows... Not that I see Peterson dropping to 5, just how I feel about it all as it stands today. It's much more likely it'd come down to Wilson or one of those two PG's at 4 for the Mavs.

I think so too.  Peterson has too much upside not to go top 3.  Again I know fit is not supposed to matter, but I can't help thinking that Wilson could be a dominate small ball 5 and the thought of a Wilson/Flagg frontcourt would make it easier for me to pull the trigger at 4.

[Smitty]

It's really starting to sink in how much of a missed opportunity ending in the 6th-7th spot might end up being.

They are in the 6th spot. But it's the least likely place they'll pick.

[KillerLeft]

They are in the 6th spot. But it's the least likely place they'll pick.

I get it. (I meant 6th/7th in terms of odds placement, not pick order - I worded it confusingly, sorry). I'm just saying...that doesn't feel like a job done well enough, at the moment. 

Still, they had worse odds last year, right?

[mvossman]

He has some nice highlights (explosive plays and deep range) but I couldn't help but notice how often he seems to hit the court hard on falls.  It will not be fun if he has any kind of lingering back issues.  I still have PTSD issues from watching AD fall down.

[mvossman]

I get it. (I meant 6th/7th in terms of odds placement, not pick order - I worded it confusingly, sorry). I'm just saying...that doesn't feel like a job done well enough, at the moment. 

Still, they had worse odds last year, right?

Way worse.  To be fair, they would have had to start super hard tanking from day 1 to get in top 5.  They have done a good job to have a reasonable shot at 6.

[Scott41theMavs]

Thanks. Personally, in my (admittedly currently ignorant) opinion, he might be my #2 Mavs target, right after Dybansta. 

After watching some of the former pro players speak (recklessly, kind of) about Peterson's health concerns, I'm not nearly as scared of him as I used to be, so he'd still be much higher on my list than he seems to be around here, too. 

I like Acuff, but not as much as those others. 

You're telling me that NONE of them is a realistic possibility?

For a second I was scratching my head about this comment, then the lightbulb went on that you were concerned he was a headcase/malingerer and therefore talk of legit health problems assuaged whatever worries you had about that.

My "I'm out" with regard to Peterson is not the offcourt prima donna worries, health, or alleged lack of love for the game. It's that when he played, it was like someone was holding his family hostage and was going to kill them all if he passed the ball. I don't care how good of a scorer you are, if you can't successfully pass consistently - especially from a guard spot - you are profoundly useless garbage as a basketball player. And it's not a matter of, "well, my teammates suck, so I have to do it all" - hell, no, his team was better when he didn't play. You put that together with the other concerns, and I wouldn't pick him in the top ten if I were an NBA GM. He might have some future in the league as a sixth man microwave (perhaps the best of all-time, best case scenario), but you need a starter in the top ten.

[Mavs2021]

Let's say the Mavs were to land the 2nd pick and Dybantsa had gone first.  Would you have the ballz to trade down to #5 and pick Acuff?  I would, especially if it netted other considerable assets. I don't view Peterson or Boozer so much higher than Acuff that I would think it’s a colossal blunder. I'd take Acuff, a future 1st and a young piece (Tre Johnson/Keyshawn George, Egor Demin, or Isaiah Collier/Ace Bailey if someone is gobsmacked for Peterson.

I´d trade down as far as I can to still grab Wilson, if Dybantsa is gone.

[Smitty]

Still, they had worse odds last year, right?

Much worse, they jumped up from 11 last year. It'd be nice to have Lady Luck on our side again this year. Rewarding an "ethical tank".

[Chicagojk]

I understand the Peterson's concerns.   I tend to go against the grain with draft stuff until late, but man I think people are really discounting Peterson and his upside.    His shot making is so good.    I am not sure if I would take him 1, 2 or 3 on my draft board now, but I think the tide has swung too far with him.

[Smitty]

I understand the Peterson's concerns.   I tend to go against the grain with draft stuff until late, but man I think people are really discounting Peterson and his upside.    His shot making is so good.    I am not sure if I would take him 1, 2 or 3 on my draft board now, but I think the tide has swung too far with him.

Interviews will be really important for him. Like combine measurements will be important for some of the other Guards. He's talented, that's for sure.

[mvossman]

I understand the Peterson's concerns.   I tend to go against the grain with draft stuff until late, but man I think people are really discounting Peterson and his upside.    His shot making is so good.    I am not sure if I would take him 1, 2 or 3 on my draft board now, but I think the tide has swung too far with him.

The real question will be if Mavs get 3 and AJ and Boozer are off the board.  Are you going to pass over Peterson?  Are you going Wilson?  Are you going with one the PGs (Acuff/Flemings)?

[numnuts23]

The real question will be if Mavs get 3 and AJ and Boozer are off the board.  Are you going to pass over Peterson?  Are you going Wilson?  Are you going with one the PGs (Acuff/Flemings)?

My guess is Peterson is still gonna go top 2 - too much hype around him not to.  He's a scorer and his game likely translates to the NBA better than Boozer.  

So it's gonna be AJ vs Peterson for the top pick.

[Winter]

To Mvossman's question: I'd go Wilson and wouldn't blink.

We can get another PG. I'm not sure you can get another Wilson.

[F Gump]

The real question will be if Mavs get 3 and AJ and Boozer are off the board.  Are you going to pass over Peterson?  Are you going Wilson?  Are you going with one the PGs (Acuff/Flemings)?

I suspect the entire NBA would select Peterson in that scenario. It seems they all REALLLLLLLY value him. (I'm not convinced he even drops to 2, frankly).

But in that scenario, personally I'd pick Wilson. I think he's the best shot at a future superstar in this draft, with Dybantsa a close second.

[Chicagojk]

The real question will be if Mavs get 3 and AJ and Boozer are off the board.  Are you going to pass over Peterson?  Are you going Wilson?  Are you going with one the PGs (Acuff/Flemings)?

It is too early for me to make a decision on rankings.  I will say though that I think any of the top 3 would fit really well with Cooper.   Each one would provide some benefits and negaitives, but I think all three would make it an exciting future (injuries aside).  The way Cooper attacks the rim would fit great with Peterson's shooting.  Add smart, solid pieces around them and we would be cooking if we are lucky to get a top 3 pick.

This is not a concern now, but I think only Boozer would be perfectly fine sharing the spotlight with Cooper.  I think potentially AJ and Peterson may not like playing second fiddle over time.   That is a concern for a much later date.