Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Smitty]

Could you do a full reset and offer Davis, Gafford, Naji for Expirings, Risacher, Okongwu, CLE FRP?

Why the Hawks do it: You don’t trade for AD to “tank”, this season or next. Gafford fills the hole at Center and provides more of what they need there than OO, while Naji fills the bench Wing role that ZR would be leaving. You get to capitalize on your big expirings contracts this TDL in KP and Kennard.

The Mavs go into next season with zero financial issues, which is where a non-contending team should be. They get much younger and start to build a team that is clearly and only Flagg’s.

Kyrie (33) - Nembhard (22) - Top 20 FRP
Christie (22) - Klay (35)
Risacher (20) - Top 8 FRP
Flagg (19) - PJW (27)
Lively (21) - Okongwu (25)

Only Kyrie and Klay in your top 10 are “old”.
This is putting all your assets in one basket for a full reset. I like the roster and fit of the above though… Lively’s health would be the biggest X-factor going forward!

This was where my head was at last night. The full reset I referenced. Looking at the financials for next year and the impact on this hypothetical:

15 roster spots totals ~$173.6M, assuming the above plus DLO, Martin, Hardy, VetMin Center. This not only moves them below the Aprons, but well out of the tax entirely. Saving nearly $175M in payroll + tax.

If the Mavs do nothing next year, they are projected to have a payroll of ~$225M. The tax bill alone would be another ~$125M.


For the Hawks, this would be their depth chart:

Daniels | McCollum
NAW | Vit
Naji | Kispert
Johnson | Gueye
Davis | Gafford | Asa

Then they get to add the #1 Pick (currently) to that squad next year... Dybantsa slotted in for Naji? Or Peterson in for Daniels? Whew!


Edit: To solve the 4-3 lopsided trade, before FGump yells at me. The Mavs could waive Kennard or agree to a buyout, as well as waive Exum to then sign Nembhard this season. They would have the flexibility to do so under A2 post-trade.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

 It doesn't appear the ligament injury will dramatically lower his value from whatever that value is/was.  

I don't see how you came to this conclusion.

[mvossman]

Yes I saw what Stein said. I didn't take it as gospel (and still don't). It was wayyyyyyyyy out of the norm for Stein to say something like that - and go extreme "sky is falling" -- and because I think he's smarter than that, I don't really buy into what he said any more than all the trade talk extremes we've heard that DS noted. Why did he say what he did, and come at it that way? I have no idea. 

"Its nowhere in the ballpark of what you are asking for. I realize you want to get maximum value for AD, but this can be taken too far.   We have watched Ainge ask for too high prices, wait too long and get lower return on players than if he would have been reasonable to begin with." -- I understand you. But you are working from the mindset that the Mavs are feeling (or need to feel) pressure (or even desperation) to move AD. And I don't think they are. So I think they are going to look for full value. They might be negotiable, if the deal otherwise gets close, and there are multiple ways they could compromise, assuming in general they get a strong offer. But they have to be chased, and they can't be the one chasing (to try to satisfy ATL's or someone else's fondest wishes) to ensure a deal happens. Chasing a deal, and making sure the other side gets whatever they demand, that's Nico-style negotiating (factually proven), and it gets you killed in the deal.

I agree it was out of the norm for Stein to say that, but I am not assuming there was some agenda there, and I think he is more plugged in on player value than you or I (his assessment was lower than mine as well).

Are you saying the Mavs don't ever need to move AD?  I think they should try to maximize his return, do you disagree?  When you are dealing with an older player who is already starting to show signs of that age, you are on a bit of a clock regarding maximizing return.

[F Gump]

SMITTY: "Could you do a full reset and offer Davis, Gafford, Naji for Expirings, Risacher, Okongwu, CLE FRP?"

It's an interesting exercise. That ends with ATL paying tax and is a 4-for-3 (problematic). Tweaking it to solve both of those would be hard, but a bigger issue would be what it does to ATL's future payroll. It almost certainly lands them well over the tax line, and that's a deal-killer. That also assumes they simply let McCollum walk, rather than try to keep him or swap him in a SNT.

[Smitty]

SMITTY: "Could you do a full reset and offer Davis, Gafford, Naji for Expirings, Risacher, Okongwu, CLE FRP?"

It's an interesting exercise. That ends with ATL paying tax and is a 4-for-3 (problematic). Tweaking it to solve both of those would be hard, but a bigger issue would be what it does to ATL's future payroll. It almost certainly lands them well over the tax line, and that's a deal-killer. That also assumes they simply let McCollum walk, rather than try to keep him or swap him in a SNT.

I hear your concern and don't disagree entirely. I've read up some on the tax issue with Atlanta. Most seem to think that Onsi and the ownership group would pay tax for a contender, which they would consider themselves in this hypothetical. The ones that don't need to be paying tax are the Mavs. Plus, there are ways to help alleviate that from Hawks side next year. If they get Dybantsa for example, you now have Naji's expiring to move for air at a bare minimum. Or you do something with Kispert. Anyway, the Hawks and any money problem for next year is the GM's job to execute at the direction of the ownership group.

Edit: I did some rough math and this hypothetical would put the Hawks at ~$199.2M with 14 roster spots next year, with the projected tax line at ~$201M. *No McCollum*

[F Gump]

Are you saying the Mavs don't ever need to move AD?  I think they should try to maximize his return, do you disagree?  When you are dealing with an older player who is already starting to show signs of that age, you are on a bit of a clock regarding maximizing return.

Yes, moving him anytime soon might not be their best way to go. It depends. What's the offer now that's too good to turn down?

Yes, careers run out at some point. Players age. But if you get diddly amount of talent in return for him now (and "air" is not talent), then I believe the better path is to keep him and let him be your talent and not someone else's. Because you always need good players. And you can ALWAYS get next-to-nothing later, as well as now. What's the rush to get some crappy pieces of journeyman junk on the roster?

OTOH if the offer now is a strong return, then yes trading him soon is worth considering. 

And the fact he wants more max contract money down the line is a plus. That means he has incentive to work his azz off to stay healthy and play like a superstar for two years, so that the next team will pay him like that. If he doesn't do that, no one will give him that deal. But if he does, his value to the Mavs AND his trade value go way up day by day, week by week.  

That's my 2c on it.

[Chicagojk]

DLO's minutes will be interesting to monitory.  I can't imagine there is much interest in him out there.   Are the Mavs just done with him?  In like, you are not getting in the game, so get comfortable.  Setting up a summer decision for him to either sit for another year and make an easy 6 million or look for a better spot to see if he can extend his NBA career.  If I had to guess, i would think he picks that option up next year.  Although, maybe he gets  prime condo in Marina Bay Sands instead

[Mavs2021]

This is getting boring. Can´t they trade Exum for Ingles, so we have something else to talk about for 20 minutes.

[mvossman]

Yes, moving him anytime soon might not be their best way to go. It depends. What's the offer now that's too good to turn down?

Yes, careers run out at some point. Players age. But if you get diddly amount of talent in return for him now (and "air" is not talent), then I believe the better path is to keep him and let him be your talent and not someone else's. Because you always need good players. And you can ALWAYS get next-to-nothing later, as well as now. What's the rush to get some crappy pieces of journeyman junk on the roster?

OTOH if the offer now is a strong return, then yes trading him soon is worth considering. 

And the fact he wants more max contract money down the line is a plus. That means he has incentive to work his azz off to stay healthy and play like a superstar for two years, so that the next team will pay him like that. If he doesn't do that, no one will give him that deal. But if he does, his value to the Mavs AND his trade value go way up day by day, week by week.  

That's my 2c on it.

I disagree with this statement "air is not talent".  Air can absolutely be talent.  It can mean the full MLE (see Naji), it can mean they don't trade other players (talent) to clear up space and it can mean they don't send out assets (eventual talent) to clear up space.

I get the argument that cap space is not enough to send out AD (and actually agree with it) but it seems like your line for worthy trade is so high that he would never get traded and he walks in two years.  I'm not sure how that is trading talent for talent?

[Chicagojk]

No intel, but I think per reporting and hunches that Toronto and Atlanta are two teams who could be still involved.

For Toronto it is Barrett and Quickly/Poetl.   No draft assets.  No expiring, but the best player in Barrett that the Mavs could get.

For Atl it is KP, Kennard and Newell (maybe replace a first instead of Newelll or add if there are other teams involved).   Mavs get expirings but not potential long term fits unless Newell develops.  

Both offers don't really interest me at the moment.

[vfromlmf]

Five optimistic but reasonable AD trade packages:

ATL: KP + Kennard + Risacher + FRP --> $41M expiring + young player (20) + pick
This option has been discussed at length and I think if it were really an option, the deal would be done. Atlanta seems to be holding out Risacher. They might be offering Newell and/or no pick. 

DET: Harris + Ivey + Holland --> $26M expiring + two young players (23 and 20). Ivey extension $20-25M.
Detroit doesn’t need to do this deal but if they’re serious about winning a title, they’ll give it a hard look. Dallas wouldn’t get a pick but the two young players are both recent 5th overall picks. Dallas would also gain the flexibility of dealing Ivey if they don’t want to extend him. 

CHI: Vucevic + Collins + White (25) + FRP —> $39M expiring + youngish player (25) + pick. White extension $25-30M
I don’t think this deal makes Chicago a contender but there are a lot of reasons for them to like this deal. White can play next to Kyrie but Dallas will likely need to shed salary to sign him to an extension. They could also move White later.

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett or Quickley + 2 FRP --> Starting center + $30M youngish player (25 or 26)  + 2 picks
This deal frees up Dallas to also move Gafford, potentially for expiring money and another FRP. Barrett is on a shorter deal than Quickley and could be moved or retained at a number that’s similar to what Coby White is likely to get. 

CHA: Sexton + Green + Williams + Mavs ’27 —> $26.7M expiring + $27.2 expiring following year + likely lottery pick
I don’t see this deal as likely but if the Hornets want to see if Ball can win, they could do worse than making him the second best player next to a high character veteran. For Dallas, this deal would extend the tank to two years resembling San Antonio’s rebuild.

[meistermatze]

I think we should also trade Flagg for whatever we can get. He’s just one torn Achilles away from being completely worthless. Did you see how he turned his ankle the other night? 

It’s just a matter of time before his value tanks completely.

I assume you are trolling and you do understand the fallacy of a false equivalence, right?

You can not seriously apply the same reasoning to a healthy 19 y/o and a guy like Davis who will turn 33 and has the longest injury-history on any active player in this league.

Not to mention their difference in inherent worth to the franchise, their potential or the amount of money the cost.

[Dirknows]

Five optimistic but reasonable AD trade packages:

ATL: KP + Kennard + Risacher + FRP --> $41M expiring + young player (20) + pick
This option has been discussed at length and I think if it were really an option, the deal would be done. Atlanta seems to be holding out Risacher. They might be offering Newell and/or no pick. 

DET: Harris + Ivey + Holland --> $26M expiring + two young players (23 and 20). Ivey extension $20-25M.
Detroit doesn’t need to do this deal but if they’re serious about winning a title, they’ll give it a hard look. Dallas wouldn’t get a pick but the two young players are both recent 5th overall picks. Dallas would also gain the flexibility of dealing Ivey if they don’t want to extend him. 

CHI: Vucevic + Collins + White (25) + FRP —> $39M expiring + youngish player (25) + pick. White extension $25-30M
I don’t think this deal makes Chicago a contender but there are a lot of reasons for them to like this deal. White can play next to Kyrie but Dallas will likely need to shed salary to sign him to an extension. They could also move White later.

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett or Quickley + 2 FRP --> Starting center + $30M youngish player (25 or 26)  + 2 picks
This deal frees up Dallas to also move Gafford, potentially for expiring money and another FRP. Barrett is on a shorter deal than Quickley and could be moved or retained at a number that’s similar to what Coby White is likely to get. 

CHA: Sexton + Green + Williams + Mavs ’27 —> $26.7M expiring + $27.2 expiring following year + likely lottery pick
I don’t see this deal as likely but if the Hornets want to see if Ball can win, they could do worse than making him the second best player next to a high character veteran. For Dallas, this deal would extend the tank to two years resembling San Antonio’s rebuild.

I've long thought Charlotte could be a spot for Davis. They're never likely to get a player as big a name as him ever by trade request or in free agency. However, they'll be losing out on likely a lottery pick in 2027, so I think they hold our pick. Hate the Toronto deal, the others I would have some level of interest in.

[BigDirk41]

Five optimistic but reasonable AD trade packages:

ATL: KP + Kennard + Risacher + FRP --> $41M expiring + young player (20) + pick
This option has been discussed at length and I think if it were really an option, the deal would be done. Atlanta seems to be holding out Risacher. They might be offering Newell and/or no pick. 

DET: Harris + Ivey + Holland --> $26M expiring + two young players (23 and 20). Ivey extension $20-25M.
Detroit doesn’t need to do this deal but if they’re serious about winning a title, they’ll give it a hard look. Dallas wouldn’t get a pick but the two young players are both recent 5th overall picks. Dallas would also gain the flexibility of dealing Ivey if they don’t want to extend him. 

CHI: Vucevic + Collins + White (25) + FRP —> $39M expiring + youngish player (25) + pick. White extension $25-30M
I don’t think this deal makes Chicago a contender but there are a lot of reasons for them to like this deal. White can play next to Kyrie but Dallas will likely need to shed salary to sign him to an extension. They could also move White later.

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett or Quickley + 2 FRP --> Starting center + $30M youngish player (25 or 26)  + 2 picks
This deal frees up Dallas to also move Gafford, potentially for expiring money and another FRP. Barrett is on a shorter deal than Quickley and could be moved or retained at a number that’s similar to what Coby White is likely to get. 

CHA: Sexton + Green + Williams + Mavs ’27 —> $26.7M expiring + $27.2 expiring following year + likely lottery pick
I don’t see this deal as likely but if the Hornets want to see if Ball can win, they could do worse than making him the second best player next to a high character veteran. For Dallas, this deal would extend the tank to two years resembling San Antonio’s rebuild.

HARD PASS on the Toronto deal. The others are interesting.

[mvossman]

No intel, but I think per reporting and hunches that Toronto and Atlanta are two teams who could be still involved.

For Toronto it is Barrett and Quickly/Poetl.   No draft assets.  No expiring, but the best player in Barrett that the Mavs could get.

For Atl it is KP, Kennard and Newell (maybe replace a first instead of Newelll or add if there are other teams involved).   Mavs get expirings but not potential long term fits unless Newell develops.  

Both offers don't really interest me at the moment.

I don't think Toronto can send Quickly.  He is their only PG.  That means Barett + Poeltl.  I would need two firsts just for that to not be a negative package.  I don't see any chance that happens.

If its anything it most likely will be Atlanta.  Newell does not move the needle for me that much.  If it ends up being Newell or the CLE pick I would go with the pick.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I don't think Toronto can send Quickly.  He is their only PG.  That means Barett + Poeltl.  I would need two firsts just for that to not be a negative package.  I don't see any chance that happens.

If its anything it most likely will be Atlanta.  Newell does not move the needle for me that much.  If it ends up being Newell or the CLE pick I would go with the pick.

Jamal Shead backs up Quickley, but maybe he's no more than a backup. The versatile Scottie Barnes also handles playmaking duties.

[mvossman]

Five optimistic but reasonable AD trade packages:

ATL: KP + Kennard + Risacher + FRP --> $41M expiring + young player (20) + pick
This option has been discussed at length and I think if it were really an option, the deal would be done. Atlanta seems to be holding out Risacher. They might be offering Newell and/or no pick. 

DET: Harris + Ivey + Holland --> $26M expiring + two young players (23 and 20). Ivey extension $20-25M.
Detroit doesn’t need to do this deal but if they’re serious about winning a title, they’ll give it a hard look. Dallas wouldn’t get a pick but the two young players are both recent 5th overall picks. Dallas would also gain the flexibility of dealing Ivey if they don’t want to extend him. 

CHI: Vucevic + Collins + White (25) + FRP —> $39M expiring + youngish player (25) + pick. White extension $25-30M
I don’t think this deal makes Chicago a contender but there are a lot of reasons for them to like this deal. White can play next to Kyrie but Dallas will likely need to shed salary to sign him to an extension. They could also move White later.

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett or Quickley + 2 FRP --> Starting center + $30M youngish player (25 or 26)  + 2 picks
This deal frees up Dallas to also move Gafford, potentially for expiring money and another FRP. Barrett is on a shorter deal than Quickley and could be moved or retained at a number that’s similar to what Coby White is likely to get. 

CHA: Sexton + Green + Williams + Mavs ’27 —> $26.7M expiring + $27.2 expiring following year + likely lottery pick
I don’t see this deal as likely but if the Hornets want to see if Ball can win, they could do worse than making him the second best player next to a high character veteran. For Dallas, this deal would extend the tank to two years resembling San Antonio’s rebuild.

I think the ship sailed on the ATL with the AD injury and not sure it was ever an option.

I think the Mavs could find room for White if its semi reasonable deal. 

The TOR deal is terrible.

Most of these deals have at least 3 players coming to Mavs for 1.  Would need to alter to make the number of players on each side more even.

[vfromlmf]

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett or Quickley + 2 FRP --> Starting center + $30M youngish player (25 or 26) + 2 picks

The TOR deal is interesting if you think about it like a 3-team deal involving Gafford for expirings + FRP.

Dallas would essentially swap their starting center (Gafford) for Poeltl + FRP. Gafford and Poeltl make close to the same money next year; and in '27-'28 Poeltl will make about $10M more than Gaff; and Poeltl's last year is only guaranteed $5M when Gaff is guaranteed $19M. So Dallas would end up saving money if they waive Poeltl in '28-'29. Or they could keep him if he's playing well. Also keep in mind Barrett is exporing next year if you don't like him. The total deal would look like

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett + 2 FRP for AD

Mystery team: expiring + FRP for Gafford

DAL: AD + Gafford for Poeltl + Barrett + 3 FRP --> $14.4M expiring + $30M expiring next year + 3 FRP

[mvossman]

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett or Quickley + 2 FRP --> Starting center + $30M youngish player (25 or 26)  + 2 picks

The TOR deal is interesting if you think about it like a 3-team deal involving Gafford for expirings + FRP.

Dallas would essentially swap their starting center (Gafford) for Poeltl + FRP. Gafford and Poeltl make close to the same money next year; and in '27-'28 Poeltl will make about $10M more than Gaff; and Poeltl's last year is only guaranteed $5M when Gaff is guaranteed $19M. So Dallas would end up saving money if they waive Poeltl in '28-'29. Or they could keep him if he's playing well. Also keep in mind Barrett is exporing next year if you don't like him. The total deal would look like

TOR: Poeltl + Barrett + 2 FRP for AD

Mystery team: expiring + FRP for Gafford

DAL: AD + Gafford for Poeltl + Barrett + 3 FRP --> $14.4M expiring + $30M expiring next year + 3 FRP

The fact that the last year of Poeltl is only 5 mil helps.  In no universe would you willingly pay him nearly 30 mil in his age 34 season.

You can trade Gafford without doing this deal.

Not a fan of Barrett contract either.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

All those offers that were posted, subtract one 1st rd pick and that's probably the ceiling right now.

ATL: you'd be lucky to get Risacher. you're not getting Risacher and a 1st

DET: not getting both Ivey and Holland. one if you're lucky

CHI: you're not getting that first

TOR: you will probably get one 1st for taking on the Poetl deal

It just feels like an echo chamber in here without any regard for what the rest of the NBA world is saying, even people that cover the Mavs. It's like a repeat of last summer.