MAVS NEWS:

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Kia Rookie Ladder: Cooper Flagg leapfrogs Kon Knueppel for No. 1
Dallas' standout rookie has stepped up as a go-to guy and moves into the No. 1 spot as the Top 5 undergoes big changes.

1.Cooper Flagg
2. Kon Knueppel
3. Derik Queen
4. Cedric Coward
5. Jeremiah Fears
6. VJ Edgecombe
7. Dylan Harper
8. Ryan Nembhard
9. Ace Bailey
10. Ryan Kalkbrenner





Never heard of Ryan Kalkbrenner.  Am I a casual?

The 7'1, 260 lb. center, Kalkbrenner, played at Creighton and was a 2nd round pick and 4 yr senior.  He had a good career there.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Kia Rookie Ladder: Cooper Flagg leapfrogs Kon Knueppel for No. 1
Dallas' standout rookie has stepped up as a go-to guy and moves into the No. 1 spot as the Top 5 undergoes big changes.

1.Cooper Flagg
2. Kon Knueppel
3. Derik Queen
4. Cedric Coward
5. Jeremiah Fears
6. VJ Edgecombe
7. Dylan Harper
8. Ryan Nembhard
9. Ace Bailey
10. Ryan Kalkbrenner



Never heard of Ryan Kalkbrenner.  Am I a casual?

This rookie ladder will remain fluid for most of the year, unless someone takes a significant leap in consistency.

[Smitty]

@MavsFilmRoom
Cooper Flagg’s trainer on Coop playing PG early in the season:

“I know there was criticism about him playing in that role. However, I think from a developmental standpoint, it was actually really good for him just because he had to have the ball in his hands. He had to handle pressure full court. Now when you see him with the ball, there is a sense of comfort.”

[Chicagojk]

With the Blazers loss last night, the Mavs are now your #10 seed in the West.  With some winnable games coming up, they may move up more.   Looking below them, the Trailblazers should be better.   Losing hope in LAC figuring it out.  After that it gets brutal finding who is going to win games.   

Tonights game may be interesting.  Dallas has played well.   They have beat teams mostly missing a core player.  Also, when you are bad you always have to wonder if you got the best from the other team.  Sometimes they think just by showing up they can win.   Although, it will be interesting to see if they blow the doors off against a team they are better than.  Sometimes that tells you a lot as well.

[omahen]

With the Blazers loss last night, the Mavs are now your #10 seed in the West.  With some winnable games coming up, they may move up more.   Looking below them, the Trailblazers should be better.   Losing hope in LAC figuring it out.  After that it gets brutal finding who is going to win games.   

Tonights game may be interesting.  Dallas has played well.   They have beat teams mostly missing a core player.  Also, when you are bad you always have to wonder if you got the best from the other team.  Sometimes they think just by showing up they can win.   Although, it will be interesting to see if they blow the doors off against a team they are better than.  Sometimes that tells you a lot as well.

Portland is somehow quietly falling apart. They had a very nice October start of the season, but are just 5-14 in November and December.  They were supposed to be a good defensive team, but the lowly NO scored 143 points against them last night. Even this was not a consequence of some extremely hot shooting. I didn't watch the game but box score suggests NO was doing whatever they wanted. 

Portland has some interesting young players in Avdija, Sharpe, Camara and Clingan. Henderson tbd. But they also have several vets and if their result free fall continues, they might think about becoming sellers. Jrue and Grant are on bloated 3 year deals that will be difficult to move, even though both could be interesting to some contenders. Williams and Thybulle are expiring - contenders could again be interested, but they are unlikely to fetch more than a SRP or so.

[Chicagojk]

Portland is somehow quietly falling apart. They had a very nice October start of the season, but are just 5-14 in November and December.  They were supposed to be a good defensive team, but the lowly NO scored 143 points against them last night. Even this was not a consequence of some extremely hot shooting. I didn't watch the game but box score suggests NO was doing whatever they wanted. 

Portland has some interesting young players in Avdija, Sharpe, Camara and Clingan. Henderson tbd. But they also have several vets and if their result free fall continues, they might think about becoming sellers. Jrue and Grant are on bloated 3 year deals that will be difficult to move, even though both could be interesting to some contenders. Williams and Thybulle are expiring - contenders could again be interested, but they are unlikely to fetch more than a SRP or so.

I haven't seen much of them.  Every time I see Sharpe, I think that guy should be a star.   Others who watch basketball for a living have a more even take and some question his play.  Still though, I see no reason why he should not be pushing for all star games in his future.  Maybe I only see his good game/good plays though.   I really like Avdija too.   I am also a fan of Clingan, but worry about his long term health.   This was a big year for Henderson so it sucks he has been injured.  I thought he was making some progress last year, even if it was still uneven.  Still a long way from being the hyped consolation prize of that draft.  This year was really important for him.   

They had the coaching stuff that I am sure has impacted the team.    I also wonder if the mix of veterans and youth is not a good fit with the team struggling.   It can be a challenge when your veterans are making the big money and probably not your best players.   With that being said, they should be much better than how they have been playing.

[Smitty]

8 more games in Dec:
@ Utah (9-15)
Vs Detroit (20-5)
@ Philadelphia (14-10)
@ New Orleans (4-22)
Vs Denver (18-6)
@ Golden State (13-13)
@ Sacramento (6-19)
@ Portland (6-19)

Only 3 teams over .500… Mavs will need to be road warriors though. A 5-3 or 6-2 finish is possible, maybe even probable.

Kyrie’s return date is soon approaching?? The Mavs have a real shot at being 16-18 before a Jan 1 return game.

Would have been impossible to imagine such a thing a few weeks ago.

[DanSchwartzgan]

8 more games in Dec:
@ Utah (9-15)
Vs Detroit (20-5)
@ Philadelphia (14-10)
@ New Orleans (4-22)
Vs Denver (18-6)
@ Golden State (13-13)
@ Sacramento (6-19)
@ Portland (6-19)

Only 3 teams over .500… Mavs will need to be road warriors though. A 5-3 or 6-2 finish is possible, maybe even probable.

Kyrie’s return date is soon approaching?? The Mavs have a real shot at being 16-18 before a Jan 1 return game.

Would have been impossible to imagine such a thing a few weeks ago.

Welcome to the play-in.  Currently already up to #10 in the West.

This is the AD conundrum.  You can't get value if you don't play him.  If you play him, you can't get a premium pick.

The second part of the conundrum is...if you don't trade him, should you still make moves around the edges?  Gafford?  Klay?  Something to reduce salary involving Martin/Hardy/DLo?  Those three have played 45, 30 and 60 minutes over the last six games with a good bit of that being because PJ missed four of those games.

Naji the starter began with the Clipper game.  Recall AD was out (B2B) and PJ was out.  He's started all six of this 5 of 6 run.  These six games plus one in mid-November represent the only seven games he's started.  As a starter, Naji is 17.6/4.6/3.3 and is shooting .385 from three with a TS% of .699.  The O-rating in those games is 143 and the D-rating is 116.  It feels weird to remove the shooters (Max or Klay) from the starting lineup, but if this small sample size holds, it will be hard to change him out.  

In a similarly small sample (5 games), Christie is more efficient as a sub.  Klay has also thrived as a sub.  His 3% is .383 vs .338 as a starter and his TS% as a sub is .541 vs .444.  On thing about Klay, there is a huge ORating - DRating deficit when he plays whereas Christie is a positive in this measure.  It feels a bit unfair to Klay because there have been times where he's been asked to carry the load for some bad lineups where Christie is never called upon to do that.  It is worth watching to see if overall team health helps that, but he still shows a big deficit in his 4 December games.  PJ Washington is the other player who is similarly bad at this.  Flagg was earlier in the season, but has recently turned that around.  

I go though all of that to wonder out loud if there might be a Klay (or Klay/Dlo or Klay/Powell or Klay/Hardy) trade out there even if we are trying to win with Kyrie back.  Olynyk/Carter Bryant?

[SleepingHero]

StatMuse (@statmuse)
Highest clutch FG% by a player with 50+ clutch points this season:

59.3 — Cooper Flagg
54.3 — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
53.3 — Cade Cunningham
44.2 — Tyrese Maxey
38.7 — James Harden

[KillerLeft]

StatMuse (@statmuse)
Highest clutch FG% by a player with 50+ clutch points this season:

59.3 — Cooper Flagg
54.3 — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
53.3 — Cade Cunningham
44.2 — Tyrese Maxey
38.7 — James Harden

Amazing. And most of it coming from 17ft in or closer. Imagine what the Mavs will have when this kid improves his outside shooting. He's doing this now, while basically being only a one-level (1.5 level) scorer.

[Smitty]

Welcome to the play-in.  Currently already up to #10 in the West.


I go though all of that to wonder out loud if there might be a Klay (or Klay/Dlo or Klay/Powell or Klay/Hardy) trade out there even if we are trying to win with Kyrie back.  Olynyk/Carter Bryant?

The Mavs only need to finish the regular season at 8 for the chance at a 1-game shot for the 7 seed and avoiding OKC entirely. Well, until Coop leads us to the WCF of course.

The Klay thing is tricky to me. He’s been much better and this team needs the shooting/spacing he provides. I was moving him in the rumored Mathurin/Gafford swap, because I see his role being filled there. It was a 3 team deal, but doesn’t have to be. 

DAL: Mathurin, Kleber (expiring), Vincent (expiring)
LAL: Klay, Hardy
IND: Gafford

I struggled with who would need a “sweetener”. The expiring Maxi and Gabe frees up $23.5M next season, with Klay and Hardy off the books. That feels like a good year 1 starting number for Mathurin as a RFA. 

Klay to Lakers doesn’t have to be the team either. I was just getting him to LA and on a “contender”. Several teams could use him and have an expiring or two. The framework is there.

[Chicagojk]

Welcome to the play-in.  Currently already up to #10 in the West.

This is the AD conundrum.  You can't get value if you don't play him.  If you play him, you can't get a premium pick.

The second part of the conundrum is...if you don't trade him, should you still make moves around the edges?  Gafford?  Klay?  Something to reduce salary involving Martin/Hardy/DLo?  Those three have played 45, 30 and 60 minutes over the last six games with a good bit of that being because PJ missed four of those games.

Naji the starter began with the Clipper game.  Recall AD was out (B2B) and PJ was out.  He's started all six of this 5 of 6 run.  These six games plus one in mid-November represent the only seven games he's started.  As a starter, Naji is 17.6/4.6/3.3 and is shooting .385 from three with a TS% of .699.  The O-rating in those games is 143 and the D-rating is 116.  It feels weird to remove the shooters (Max or Klay) from the starting lineup, but if this small sample size holds, it will be hard to change him out.  

In a similarly small sample (5 games), Christie is more efficient as a sub.  Klay has also thrived as a sub.  His 3% is .383 vs .338 as a starter and his TS% as a sub is .541 vs .444.  On thing about Klay, there is a huge ORating - DRating deficit when he plays whereas Christie is a positive in this measure.  It feels a bit unfair to Klay because there have been times where he's been asked to carry the load for some bad lineups where Christie is never called upon to do that.  It is worth watching to see if overall team health helps that, but he still shows a big deficit in his 4 December games.  PJ Washington is the other player who is similarly bad at this.  Flagg was earlier in the season, but has recently turned that around.  

I go though all of that to wonder out loud if there might be a Klay (or Klay/Dlo or Klay/Powell or Klay/Hardy) trade out there even if we are trying to win with Kyrie back.  Olynyk/Carter Bryant?

Bryant for Dallas would be awesome.  Klay would help SA too.  It just feels like Bryant is too good of a longterm for to move him for a short term move.  I was thinking Sochan maybe more available.  Adding another non shooter is worrisome and you would really need to like the player.

[Winter]

Welcome to the play-in.  Currently already up to #10 in the West.

This is the AD conundrum.  You can't get value if you don't play him.  If you play him, you can't get a premium pick.

The second part of the conundrum is...if you don't trade him, should you still make moves around the edges?  Gafford?  Klay?  Something to reduce salary involving Martin/Hardy/DLo?  Those three have played 45, 30 and 60 minutes over the last six games with a good bit of that being because PJ missed four of those games.

Naji the starter began with the Clipper game.  Recall AD was out (B2B) and PJ was out.  He's started all six of this 5 of 6 run.  These six games plus one in mid-November represent the only seven games he's started.  As a starter, Naji is 17.6/4.6/3.3 and is shooting .385 from three with a TS% of .699.  The O-rating in those games is 143 and the D-rating is 116.  It feels weird to remove the shooters (Max or Klay) from the starting lineup, but if this small sample size holds, it will be hard to change him out.  

In a similarly small sample (5 games), Christie is more efficient as a sub.  Klay has also thrived as a sub.  His 3% is .383 vs .338 as a starter and his TS% as a sub is .541 vs .444.  On thing about Klay, there is a huge ORating - DRating deficit when he plays whereas Christie is a positive in this measure.  It feels a bit unfair to Klay because there have been times where he's been asked to carry the load for some bad lineups where Christie is never called upon to do that.  It is worth watching to see if overall team health helps that, but he still shows a big deficit in his 4 December games.  PJ Washington is the other player who is similarly bad at this.  Flagg was earlier in the season, but has recently turned that around.  

I go though all of that to wonder out loud if there might be a Klay (or Klay/Dlo or Klay/Powell or Klay/Hardy) trade out there even if we are trying to win with Kyrie back.  Olynyk/Carter Bryant?

It is interesting how we take Naji for granted. The few times he's mentioned is when we're looking at trade material. Yet, his game is almost predictably solid most nights with double digit offense and above average defense. It feels like he's been more valuable than PJ on most nights.

Klay I think has value as a role player for some playoff team, and I agree that should there be a way we can translate into another young shooter (or perhaps another center if Gafford is out-going).

[Chicagojk]

I love Gafford but also thought he would be the odd man out here. With Lively’s injury, there is no reason to move him if you don’t get an offer you can’t turn down. Gafford has been hurt for most of the year and has not been very good when he has played. He has played through a lot of injuries and you have to credit him for that. With Lively out, there should be plenty of time for him when he is healthy, so you could really build his value back up. I have liked some potential trades with him but I am quite fine just keeping him and getting him right.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The Mavs only need to finish the regular season at 8 for the chance at a 1-game shot for the 7 seed and avoiding OKC entirely. Well, until Coop leads us to the WCF of course.

The Klay thing is tricky to me. He’s been much better and this team needs the shooting/spacing he provides. I was moving him in the rumored Mathurin/Gafford swap, because I see his role being filled there. It was a 3 team deal, but doesn’t have to be. 

DAL: Mathurin, Kleber (expiring), Vincent (expiring)
LAL: Klay, Hardy
IND: Gafford

I struggled with who would need a “sweetener”. The expiring Maxi and Gabe frees up $23.5M next season, with Klay and Hardy off the books. That feels like a good year 1 starting number for Mathurin as a RFA. 

Klay to Lakers doesn’t have to be the team either. I was just getting him to LA and on a “contender”. Several teams could use him and have an expiring or two. The framework is there.

If the plan is to keep AD and try to win, it is 8th seed or bust for me.  If we get there, you are risking losing the play-in with 7 (at that point, go ahead and lose the next game too).  But, if you win, you get whoever is the 2nd seed and avoid the OKC side of the bracket.

If the plan is to keep AD, I like still doing things around the edges that get us younger.  So, I'm all for the Gafford/Mathurin part of this.  I think you have to keep Indy out of the tax (which doesn't quite happen with the way that is constructed).  I also don't see much return for Klay other than expiring guys.  I personally think Mathurin is more valuable than Gafford (though each would be valuable to their new team).  So, I can see the thought process of LA giving up something else (2nds?) and it going to Indy.  The trick with this is LAL is so close to the first apron and Indy is so close to the tax that the numbers are challenging.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I love Gafford but also thought he would be the odd man out here.  With Lively’s injury, there is no reason to move him if you don’t get an offer you can’t turn down.  Gafford has been hurt for most of the year and has not been very good when he has played.  He has played through a lot of injuries and you have to credit him for that.  With Lively out, there should be plenty of time for him when he is healthy, so you could really build his value back up.  I have liked some potential trades with him but I am quite fine just keeping him and getting him right.

Starting Monday you could do Gafford/Hardy for Mathurin/Jackson.  Jackson isn't a world beater, but he joins Powell in trying to solve the non-AD minutes at Center without Gafford.  Indy stays under the tax by $1.0mm and Dallas moves enough under the 2nd apron to cut Exum and sign Nembhard.  The whole thing is elegant financially and positionally (C/SG for C/SG).

BTW: Gafford/Dlo also works.

[Chicagojk]

Starting Monday you could do Gafford/Hardy for Mathurin/Jackson.  Jackson isn't a world beater, but he joins Powell in trying to solve the non-AD minutes at Center without Gafford.  Indy stays under the tax by $1.0mm and Dallas moves enough under the 2nd apron to cut Exum and sign Nembhard.  The whole thing is elegant financially and positionally (C/SG for C/SG).

BTW:  Gafford/Dlo also works.

I would move Gafford to either Mathurin or White.  I am not that familiar with Mathurin so not really sure why Indy may not pay him.  I think he is good and still young.  I am not sure if either of those headliners are possible for Gafford.  With both expecting contracts you also need to consider how either would fit longterm here.  Mavs need guards but they do have a lot of bodies when healthy.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Indy has the other Nembhard brother signed to a reasonable contract.

Mathurin is tough to figure out. Last year, he shot 34% from three in 72 games. He also provides you with almost no playmaking for a guard, averaging around 2 assists per game for his career. Primarily been a slasher type in his career.

Is this year a breakout? He's only played in 14 games so far this year.

[F Gump]

... and Dallas moves enough under the 2nd apron to cut Exum and sign Nembhard....

Rushing to get Nembhard on the 15 man is NOT a goal for DAL and carries no benefit to the team. Or to Nembhard either. Nor do they really need to make any move at all to make it possible.

They will let the 50-game limit run its course (which happens in late Feb, or later, depending on games lost to injury). Then they will waive Exum (if they haven't used his expiring as needed trade filler) and convert Nembhard's deal to 15-man, minimum salary, 2 years. Assuming they do nothing else between now and then, by then they will have more than enough cap room to do that.

By doing it that way, the cap hit this season on RN contract, and his tax hit, will be lessened. 

In the meantime, there is no difference in RN's game, ability to play, pay, etc etc. He's just being paid off the books, so to speak, for the time being.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Rushing to get Nembhard on the 15 man is NOT a goal for DAL and carries no benefit to the team. Or to Nembhard either. Nor do they really need to make any move at all to make it possible.

They will let the 50-game limit run its course (which happens in late Feb, or later, depending on games lost to injury). Then they will waive Exum (if they haven't used his expiring as needed trade filler) and convert Nembhard's deal  

I can never tell from your writing style (which often feels needlessly aggressive) if you are telling this to me or for the benefit of the board.  If me, recall who it was who pointed out the 'waive Exum' part to you not that long ago.