MAVS NEWS:

[Chicagojk]

Question...is it the worst thing in the world to keep AD?   Lets say he remains relatively healthy and the Mavs make or miss the playin game but don't make the real playoffs.    Lets also say they don't strike lottery gold again and pick around 10.    If they take that pick and really like that player, it is the worst thing in the world to keep AD and Kyrie even with good offers heading into next season.  It is a pretty deep and talented team...probably not a real contender yet.  Although, are any of the trades we have discussed putting the Mavs in a better spot for the next 1-2 years?  Remember eventually AD and Kyrie contracts expire.    When does it look more appealing to keep them and then have the potential cap room (with younger players) in a few years?   

After this year, Mavs will have three first round picks in the next 4 years.   Most, if not all, will be very late first round picks.   But they are first round picks.   A good scouting dept won't hit on all three, but can they hit on 1.5?

I understand it though, there are 3-4 times a game when AD falls down when my first thought is that he will never play basketball again.   I just am not crazy with any of the deals I have seen.

[SleepingHero]

Question...is it the worst thing in the world to keep AD?   Lets say he remains relatively healthy and the Mavs make or miss the playin game but don't make the real playoffs.    Lets also say they don't strike lottery gold again and pick around 10.    If they take that pick and really like that player, it is the worst thing in the world to keep AD and Kyrie even with good offers heading into next season.  It is a pretty deep and talented team...probably not a real contender yet.  Although, are any of the trades we have discussed putting the Mavs in a better spot for the next 1-2 years?  Remember eventually AD and Kyrie contracts expire.    When does it look more appealing to keep them and then have the potential cap room (with younger players) in a few years?   

After this year, Mavs will have three first round picks in the next 4 years.   Most, if not all, will be very late first round picks.   But they are first round picks.   A good scouting dept won't hit on all three, but can they hit on 1.5?

I understand it though, there are 3-4 times a game when AD falls down when my first thought is that he will never play basketball again.   I just am not crazy with any of the deals I have seen.

No its completely valid to keep AD.

If he remains healthy and Kyrie returns, the Mavs are competitive. Are they contenders? That I'm not sure of, but competitive means a higher trade value. 

If AD is injured, the Mavs can get a higher draft pick. Win-win truthfully. Any shortcut deal where we get a pu-pu platter of JAG's from CHI would be a massive mistake.

[KillerLeft]

All true. Still, for someone that was labeled as a 'work in progress' on the offensive side of the ball, very impressive.

What's most impressive is that the label is very, very accurate and he's STILL making a noticeable impact.

[mvossman]

Question...is it the worst thing in the world to keep AD?   Lets say he remains relatively healthy and the Mavs make or miss the playin game but don't make the real playoffs.    Lets also say they don't strike lottery gold again and pick around 10.    If they take that pick and really like that player, it is the worst thing in the world to keep AD and Kyrie even with good offers heading into next season.  It is a pretty deep and talented team...probably not a real contender yet.  Although, are any of the trades we have discussed putting the Mavs in a better spot for the next 1-2 years?  Remember eventually AD and Kyrie contracts expire.    When does it look more appealing to keep them and then have the potential cap room (with younger players) in a few years?   

After this year, Mavs will have three first round picks in the next 4 years.   Most, if not all, will be very late first round picks.   But they are first round picks.   A good scouting dept won't hit on all three, but can they hit on 1.5?

I understand it though, there are 3-4 times a game when AD falls down when my first thought is that he will never play basketball again.   I just am not crazy with any of the deals I have seen.

Reasons not to keep AD:

The timeline is not there.  The list of big men AD size aging well into their mid 30s and beyond is not long.  It will be years before Flagg hits his peak and the future draft picks you mention will probably not impact winning before AD is well past his prime.

The team is not good enough.  With a healthy AD and Kyrie its a good team, but not good enough to be a contender.  Its still short on offensive creation.  It would likely require an all in trade for another significant piece to have any chance.  A very dangerous gamble on oft injured players for a short window while setting back the build around Flagg phase years.

An AD trade is not to make the team better in the next 1 to 2 years.  Its to make the team better for the Flagg timeline, which is much farther in the future.

AD is going to want an extension.  How are you addressing that.  That would be another move that could set the reset back significantly.

What does AD want?  I would not be surprised if he would prefer to get traded.  In Dallas he will be forever known as the Nico fuck up.  The fact that the rumors came out that Kyire was not for sell but they are taking offers for AD leads me to believe they talked to both guys and Kyrie wants to stay while AD is ready to move on.

[mvossman]

No its completely valid to keep AD.

If he remains healthy and Kyrie returns, the Mavs are competitive. Are they contenders? That I'm not sure of, but competitive means a higher trade value. 

If AD is injured, the Mavs can get a higher draft pick. Win-win truthfully. Any shortcut deal where we get a pu-pu platter of JAG's from CHI would be a massive mistake.

A Chicago deal would be about picks.  The JAGs would be expiring contracts.  You can make the argument that it might be better to wait until the offseason to trade him (when the logistics are a lot easier) but I believe he was suggesting holding onto AD into next season.

[Mavs2021]

Question...is it the worst thing in the world to keep AD?   Lets say he remains relatively healthy and the Mavs make or miss the playin game but don't make the real playoffs.    Lets also say they don't strike lottery gold again and pick around 10.    If they take that pick and really like that player, it is the worst thing in the world to keep AD and Kyrie even with good offers heading into next season.  It is a pretty deep and talented team...probably not a real contender yet.  Although, are any of the trades we have discussed putting the Mavs in a better spot for the next 1-2 years?  Remember eventually AD and Kyrie contracts expire.    When does it look more appealing to keep them and then have the potential cap room (with younger players) in a few years?   

After this year, Mavs will have three first round picks in the next 4 years.   Most, if not all, will be very late first round picks.   But they are first round picks.   A good scouting dept won't hit on all three, but can they hit on 1.5?

I understand it though, there are 3-4 times a game when AD falls down when my first thought is that he will never play basketball again.   I just am not crazy with any of the deals I have seen.

What do you gain from losing in the play-in/play-off and reducing your chance for a top 4 pick from 26% to about 0 to 7%? 

Do you get so much joy from beating Portland and Phoenix for the next decade or is it getting swept by the Thunder? 

It´s like people are allergic to the possibility of being the next dynasty, so they can win 10 more regular season games. Oh right that cultural experience will help Flagg grow in a winning culture like Luka and appreciate it like Brunson.

[F Gump]

While I am not averse to trading AD, because I think the pieces on the roster all fit once he's gone, I don't think trading AD is the ONLY possible way to make this roster better. It might not even be the best way.

The question shouldn't be about how AD is not perfect, but rather whether you are getting back high level talent or not. A pile of random role players and fringe starters and some low tier draft picks really doesn't move the needle at all. It makes you feel good in the moment to get that huge handful of shiny beads, but you gotta get one or more surefire future stars in order to get full value. AD's impact on the floor is significant, even when he doesn't put up eye-popping stats, because he impacts the game a lot on the defensive end, and that's a LOT to give up.

[mvossman]

While I am not averse to trading AD, because I think the pieces on the roster all fit once he's gone, I don't think trading AD is the ONLY possible way to make this roster better. It might not even be the best way.

The question shouldn't be about how AD is not perfect, but rather whether you are getting back high level talent or not. A pile of random role players and fringe starters and some low tier draft picks really doesn't move the needle at all. It makes you feel good in the moment to get that huge handful of shiny beads, but you gotta get one or more surefire future stars in order to get full value. AD's impact on the floor is significant, even when he doesn't put up eye-popping stats, because he impacts the game a lot on the defensive end, and that's a LOT to give up.

There is no question AD provides valuable impact on the floor when he is available.  You could make the argument that is counterproductive this season.  The goal of an AD trade is not to make the team better right now (it won't) its to make the team better in the future (when AD would be off the team or killing the cap with an extension). 

You talk about low tier draft picks, but odds are the Chicago picks will be better than what Dallas currently has.  That has value for a team building around a young superstar.  AD is not going to land a surefire future star.  He is a very good player but he is also an aging oft injured player on a massive contract.   Teams are not going to give up the kitchen sink for that.  If he struggles with injuries all season and can't play half the games he could very easily become a negative asset for all of that talent.

More than anything, trading AD will ensure this FO won't kid itself into thinking there is a window and trade the remaining future assets in a win now move, and there will no longer be concern regarding an AD extension.  If they can get a couple of decent firsts and maybe an interesting player it will be worth it just to make sure this doesn't happen.

[F Gump]

There is no question AD provides valuable impact on the floor when he is available.  You could make the argument that is counterproductive this season.  The goal of an AD trade is not to make the team better right now (it won't) its to make the team better in the future (when AD would be off the team or killing the cap with an extension). 

You talk about low tier draft picks, but odds are the Chicago picks will be better than what Dallas currently has.  That has value for a team building around a young superstar.  AD is not going to land a surefire future star.  He is a very good player but he is also an aging oft injured player on a massive contract.   Teams are not going to give up the kitchen sink for that.  If he struggles with injuries all season and can't play half the games he could very easily become a negative asset for all of that talent.

More than anything, trading AD will ensure this FO won't kid itself into thinking there is a window and trade the remaining future assets in a win now move, and there will no longer be concern regarding an AD extension.  If they can get a couple of decent firsts and maybe an interesting player it will be worth it just to make sure this doesn't happen.

Good argument and opinion. I just don't happen to agree with it as any sort of wise roster-building approach, especially operating in the fear mindset that "he might not be worth high trade value later, so we better accept low trade value now!"

I'll take high AD value now. Or later. Or keep him and see how far a Davis-Flagg-Kyrie core can take us. And I think ALL of those will eventually lead to a much better outcome than to just take whatever you can get asap.

I've been on the trade AD bandwagon before anyone. And the tank this season bandwagon before anyone. But I am NEVER for the belief that you lessen your talent base considerably in a hurry to turn the page (instead, work to INCREASE the talent, always). I am a Sam Presti fan when it comes to roster building, and that's been his approach. (PS - Hire Presti. Then we don't have to worry about it.)

If you think AD's value is too low to get high value now, just be patient. Trade values for players are a rollercoaster.

[Winter]

I appreciate the back and forth of whether AD stays or goes, but....

I really don't think any Maverick's fan has clear idea to what AD's actual value will be at the TDL. We can make assumptions based on what he cost us, but we really don't know what team would seriously want him. In fact, I'm not sure it will even be known what his value is until another team begins to seriously negotiate with the Mavericks. This organization has to start with what THEY think his value is, and then see if other clubs can get close to that point. We don't know what the Mavericks would accept. How many picks? What type of player? How good is the player? What are the contracts like going forward? What's the financail future if we keep him? This is pretty murky stuff - a lot murkier than other trade deadlines.

There's reason to be pessimitic because there doesn't appear to be a lot of dance partners. But usually around the TDL, at least one appears. It's just hard to imagine that there's one out there that we're going to like as fans.

And of course, we don't even know who the Mavericks GM will be.

[Reunion Mav]

I’m not in a hurry to trade AD for sure. I want our direction set by our new GM who we remain happy with over time because his direction for our team proves to be precocious.

Plus I’m a big fan of our team with AD and Kyrie. I want us to play great to increase value not to mention fun. I’m ok with tanking if it happens organically or anything else. We need to retire from this fun GM thing and let an awesome GM take over. It must be great to be an OKC fan but I bet they still amateur GM for fun but they don’t have to worry near as much.

[mvossman]

Good argument and opinion. I just don't happen to agree with it as any sort of wise roster-building approach, especially operating in the fear mindset that "he might not be worth high trade value later, so we better accept low trade value now!"

I'll take high AD value now. Or later. Or keep him and see how far a Davis-Flagg-Kyrie core can take us. And I think ALL of those will eventually lead to a much better outcome than to just take whatever you can get asap.

I've been on the trade AD bandwagon before anyone. And the tank this season bandwagon before anyone. But I am NEVER for the belief that you lessen your talent base considerably in a hurry to turn the page (instead, work to INCREASE the talent, always). I am a Sam Presti fan when it comes to roster building, and that's been his approach. (PS - Hire Presti. Then we don't have to worry about it.)

If you think AD's value is too low to get high value now, just be patient. Trade values for players are a rollercoaster.

This is a different argument.  I agree on maximizing AD trade value, whatever that might mean.  I can definitely see the argument of waiting until the offseason as it will be easier to find a trade match and the offers at the TDL might be underwhelming.  On the other hand, I don't want to wait too long like we did with KP.  That ended up being for negative value.  If AD is still on the roster at the beginning of next season then they likely failed.

[F Gump]

If AD is still on the roster at the beginning of next season then they likely failed.

I don't think this is true. Putting an artificial deadline on yourself, forcing yourself into a corner, is the perfect recipe for getting screwed in a trade. (See Harrison, N, re Luka.) The deadline should be whenever the high value (plus more) suitor comes calling. There is availability, but only AD to be had, with no clearance sale looming.

If Dumont will find a way to get Presti, then we'll be good. Presti gets it. He always is willing to deal, and provide you what you want - but it has to be at HIS price. That's the posture that must be created. Once Lindsey was gone, Nico never understood it.

[mvossman]

I don't think this is true. Putting an artificial deadline on yourself, forcing yourself into a corner, is the perfect recipe for getting screwed in a trade. (See Harrison, N, re Luka.) The deadline should be whenever the high value (plus more) suitor comes calling. There is availability, but only AD to be had, with no clearance sale looming.

If Dumont will find a way to get Presti, then we'll be good. Presti gets it. He always is willing to deal, and provide you what you want - but it has to be at HIS price. That's the posture that must be created. Once Lindsey was gone, Nico never understood it.

It's being realistic.  If they can't find a decent trade for him this TDL or the offseason the odds of finding a better one later when he is a year or more older is slim.  It also means they will have to manage his cap hit for next season as well as address the extension.

Presti is great but I don't think there is any chance.  I realize these owners are super rich, but so are a lot of owners and there has been no hint of Presti being money whipped to go somewhere else.  There also hasn't been any evidence Dumont is interested in spending that kind of money.  The fact that he skimped on the playoff bonuses is not a good sign.

[F Gump]

It's being realistic.  If they can't find a decent trade for him this TDL or the offseason the odds of finding a better one later when he is a year or more older is slim.

I think that "reality" is only real if you think it is. 

We saw the same equation in OKC when they were "stuck with" Westbrook. And then they weren't, as they got full value for him and then some, from a team who convinced themselves they HAD TO have him. Of course, after that they were "stuck with" CP3, rinse and repeat, Horford, rinse and repeat, etc over and over. They never traded because they HAD TO but instead they waited until someone was eager and desperate to offer full value and maybe a bit more. 

It actually started with PG, of course -- he was semi available but they didnt get the offer -- until they did, from LAC who simply had to have him. Full value and more, a huge haul.

When you have THE TALENT, patience will win. There's not enough top talent, already developed  to go around, and the longer he's out there, the more teams will try to figure if he might be their answer and how to persuade the Mavs to say yes. 

An easy yes to the first lukewarm suitor won't get you that deal. Patience wins. There is always another trade window ahead, and sooner or later a team will be desperate for that last piece. 

You just need a GM who understands how to play the game. I act when I am the chasee, and never the chaser. When others are bidding to try to wrestle away what I have, not the other way around. The Mavs have the ONLY AD, and the competition will emerge for him at some point. No rush here.

[mvossman]

I think that "reality" is only real if you think it is. 

We saw the same equation in OKC when they were "stuck with" Westbrook. And then they weren't, as they got full value for him and then some, from a team who convinced themselves they HAD TO have him. Of course, after that they were "stuck with" CP3, rinse and repeat, Horford, rinse and repeat, etc over and over. They never traded because they HAD TO but instead they waited until someone was eager and desperate to offer full value and maybe a bit more. 

It actually started with PG, of course -- he was semi available but they didnt get the offer -- until they did, from LAC who simply had to have him. Full value and more, a huge haul.

When you have THE TALENT, patience will win. There's not enough top talent, already developed  to go around, and the longer he's out there, the more teams will try to figure if he might be their answer and how to persuade the Mavs to say yes. 

An easy yes to the first lukewarm suitor won't get you that deal. Patience wins. There is always another trade window ahead, and sooner or later a team will be desperate for that last piece. 

You just need a GM who understands how to play the game. I act when I am the chasee, and never the chaser. When others are bidding to try to wrestle away what I have, not the other way around. The Mavs have the ONLY AD, and the competition will emerge for him at some point. No rush here.

I agree with all of this in general, but I think the difference is we are dealing with an injury ticking time bomb.  I might just have PTSD from the KP fiasco, but that was definitely a case where patience was not a virtue.

[Jakeospikez]

There's an argument for keeping AD for multiple years. If Flagg develops quickly into an all-nba level player or even just an allstar, you want to capitalize that asap while he's still on his rookie contract cause you won't have that value again ever. Mavs completely blew that opportunity having an all-nba Luka in his 2nd season and were already too good but couldn't get any talent around him before he had to sign his max.

It's possible an AD deal could bring back someone quality enough to make the team as good or better in the next few years but it will be a risk at minimum. Maybe the team could be better overall with a high level SG or elite defensive 3&D SG maybe like a Herb Jones or something but losing AD will be a lot to overcome. AD also has lots of playoff + championship experience. Experienced vets pretty much always perform the best in the playoffs.

[F Gump]

I agree with all of this in general, but I think the difference is we are dealing with an injury ticking time bomb.  I might just have PTSD from the KP fiasco, but that was definitely a case where patience was not a virtue.

Yet KP got a better return when others traded him, yes? Maybe it was a case of the Mavs trading out of desperation, rather than KP suddenly losing all his value? Maybe the lesson to be learned from KP is about being desperate and taking whatever you can get, and thinking you MUST make a trade and take the first offer you can find. 

The one chasing the deal loses. Have the patience to let the deal find you and beg for you to swap. Patience wins.

[mvossman]

Yet KP got a better return when others traded him, yes? Maybe it was a case of the Mavs trading out of desperation, rather than KP suddenly losing all his value? Maybe the lesson to be learned from KP is about being desperate and taking whatever you can get, and thinking you MUST make a trade and take the first offer you can find. 

The one chasing the deal loses. Have the patience to let the deal find you and beg for you to swap. Patience wins.

I suppose KP is not really a good comp.  We needed to move him due to fit and locker room issues.  Its a lot different being patient with a 25 year old than a 32 year old.

[Chicagojk]

Ryan Nembhard as a starter (6 Games) is averaging 14.8 Pts, 6.8 Assists, 1.3 TO in 26.8 minutes. On 63.8 FG%, 68.2 3pt% and 0 Free throws. (Mavs are 4-2 in that stretch)


****************
pretty impressive.  I don't think he shoots close to that percentage as the year goes on.     I think he is on a heater now.   I think he will have much more games scoring 6 than he will score 20.  Although, I think his running the offense, low turnovers and getting the ball to players in their shooting zone will all be helpful even if he doesn't score.    

It is pretty remarkable how everyone looks for him to get him the ball after a rebound.  Before he was playing most players tried to bring the ball up themselves.   It was one of the reasons the offense was so choppy.  No one else could get players good looks before setting up the offense imo.