MAVS NEWS:

[DanSchwartzgan]

The Stein report last night feels like something fed to him from the team.  Basically, there's no advantage to being in the top 4 going into the lottery.  The smarter play is to let the chips fall where they may (especially since featuring AD probably costs you some losses) and hope for the lotto luck to continue for those outside the top four earners of ping pong balls:


There have been seven NBA drafts since the league office, hoping this measure would curb tanking, installed flattened odds of 14% each for the teams with the three worst records to win the No. 1 overall pick. The odds to win the lottery before the change were 25% for the team with the league's worst record, 19.9% for the second-worst team and 15.6% for the third-worst team.

How is the system working?
It doesn't seem to be discouraging tanking much at all ... not when teams from lower down the lottery ladder keep landing top-four selections.
In those past seven drafts ...

* We've seen 15 teams jump up into the top four to seize more than half of the 28 available picks in the lottery's upper reaches despite having anywhere from the fifth- to the 11th-worst record in the league.

* Of the 35 teams in that span that have posted the league's fifth- through ninth-worst records, we've seen 12 — better than one in three — move up to get a top-four selection.

* The last two lotteries, furthermore, were won by the teams with the 10th- and 11th-worst records leaguewide: Atlanta (2024) and Dallas (surely you remember what happened in May).

* The team with the league's worst record has won zero lotteries since the new system was installed in 2019. The last three of those teams, in fact, fell as far as they possibly could in the lottery process to the fifth overall pick: Detroit twice (2023 and 2024) and Utah this past June.

These are exactly the kind of outcomes, mind you, that league officials would point to and say: See? This is why it's a bad idea to tank. The problem there: Teams like Memphis, Dallas and Sacramento that are falling far short of expectations this season and pivoting to the notion of, uh, prioritizing draft positioning don't necessarily have to worry about "catching" the Brooklyns and Washingtons in terms of losing. History says they'll have a decent shot at lottery glory just by making sure they have a ticket.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Two parts to my answer ...

1  I have not been addressing the financial possibilities at all. None of what I have said has had any real connection to the extension question. But if I go there now: I don't think extending him is going to be a viable option, because I don't think either side will like the other's numbers. Here's how I think it is most likely to play out.
....MAVS - Because of his injury history, DL will have to "prove" to them he can stay healthy before the they make a bigger commitment. But imo it's way too late in the timeline for that, because the window for an extension opens and closes next summer. The BEST he can offer by that point would be that he's been healthy for how long - a half season in a row? - and we can't even assume that much will be true. Mavs offer will come in fairly low, but of course they will want him to extend at that number. 
....DL - He won't want to be locked into a lower number and will ask for a big number. And frankly, is Dallas the team he can trust his medical maintenance and recovery to their staff? So he will decline the extension they offer, play out season 4, and try to prove himself in season 4 after which he will be RFA. It will play out like Josh Green did, and with similar angst in the discussions featuring major alarmism over how the Mavs blew it and now he will cost $200M or so.
....Once he's a RFA in summer 2027, both sides will see how much the rest of the NBA values him, and both sides will figure out how they want to navigate things from there. IMO no way to avoid that, and it brings no guarantees. The Mavs will only have to pay what someone else will offer. Who knows what others will be willing to pay? But all of that makes his long-term future in Dallas a bit uncertain, and based on his inability to stay healthy, rightly so.

2 However --- My "position" has nothing to do with extensions or next contracts (because they aren't at that crossroads yet, and likely won't even be there until the summer of 2027). And there's no good way to talk trade either -- the Mavs don't know his long-term value, other teams don't know it either, and neither do we, so everything with him is in a long-term holding pattern to see what emerges.

What my position is -- ie the point I have been making -- is that, with his injury history being so ongoing, and no end in sight, anyone who is planning on him as a MAVS' BUILDING BLOCK for the future and as a FUTURE STAR CENTER is ignoring all the facts up to this point. So far he is always just another injury waiting to happen. He is also a looming financial nightmare to deal with in 2027 from which we can't be sure he remains a Mav. And his past production has been so limited minutes-wise that we certainly can't say his future presence will give us many years of top-tier center play -- out of the 4000 minutes per year at center, will he even be able to ever play as many as 1500 in a season? If we guesstimate that in future years he will be playing 40-55 games each season (due to injuries and injury "management"), and will average 20-25 mpg, the UPPER extreme of that has the Mavs only getting 1375 minutes from him per season. That's not enough minutes to be a solution at C, or to pay big money for, or to get major impact from.

SUMMARY of my position is this - We can't and shouldn't make plans that say "We have the center position filled with a great center solution for the long term, because we have Lively -- and he's only 21."

Is it possible that it all changes in the future and he's healthy and plays full time? Sure, it's possible. But that's not what we should expect at all, because he has NEVER been able to do that, ever.

Sorry on the delay here, this all makes total sense and probably the likely way this all plays out at this point (unless he returns and just lights it up the second half of the season but that doesn't really feel like it's in the Mavs best interest anyway for a handful of reasons so they could prevent that even if it is a possibility).

I guess the only place I differ on is this idea of planning for him to be a building block, I don't think most on here are assuming that's like a done deal anymore so I'm certainly not going to argue against that.  I think though when it comes to asset management, there's now this fine line with Lively where you don't want to fall into sunk cost fallacy but you also don't want to give up too early on him and spend assets on a center when there's still a sliver of hope.  Luckily I think this lottery they won't be faced with that issue given that this isn't a super big heavy draft and taking BPA should end up being a no brainer but I do think there would be conversation if there was a big man they REALLY liked.  It just sucks because acquiring him used such a valuable asset so while I'm teetering on falling into that sunk cost fallacy, I still think you continue to build thinking that him getting healthy and becoming that building block is pretty equal odds to whatever other young center you could acquire by whatever means becoming a building block so I'd still think it's prudent to build around the edges.  Does that have a decent probability with all this coming back and having to address the center position anyway long term?  Sure, but again, this team is in a rough place and the light is far away down the tunnel for that gamble not to hurt too badly.

[F Gump]

I think what you're saying is that the long-term future with Lively is very uncertain, and it's not smart to stake out a position yet on what needs to be done with him. Either way.

If so, that's my thinking too. I'm in no rush to write him off or trade him, but I'm also not convinced he's going to be a MAJOR part of the solution in the long term. There's a lot of "wait and see" with me.

Where I could be conflicted [I don't think this will happen, but what if ...] would be what if --
1 Lively returns in January or sooner, and is the very best version of himself for the rest of the season -- which would mean he's fully healthy, playing every game (or very close to it, with a rest game on a B2B at some points), playing 20-25 mpg, and really great defense, AND
2 At draft time 2026, a team with a TOP FIVE pick comes hard to trade for him, offering their top 5 pick plus a player (salary match or cheaper) who is very usable, preferably young. I wouldn't be interested in a future pick(s) which could turn out to be junk, but if it's a top pick in THIS draft, already set, then do you say no? That would be hard to let him go in that context of him being healthy and playing great, but at the same time, in light of the track record, wouldn't that be the very definition of selling high (and before having to agonize on an extension)?

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I think what you're saying is that the long-term future with Lively is very uncertain, and it's not smart to stake out a position yet on what needs to be done with him. Either way.

If so, that's my thinking too. I'm in no rush to write him off or trade him, but I'm also not convinced he's going to be a MAJOR part of the solution in the long term. There's a lot of "wait and see" with me.

Where I could be conflicted [I don't think this will happen, but what if ...] would be what if --
1 Lively returns in January or sooner, and is the very best version of himself for the rest of the season -- which would mean he's fully healthy, playing every game (or very close to it, with a rest game on a B2B at some points), playing 20-25 mpg, and really great defense, AND
2 At draft time 2026, a team with a TOP FIVE pick comes hard to trade for him, offering their top 5 pick plus a player (salary match or cheaper) who is very usable, preferably young. I wouldn't be interested in a future pick(s) which could turn out to be junk, but if it's a top pick in THIS draft, already set, then do you say no? That would be hard to let him go in that context of him being healthy and playing great, but at the same time, in light of the track record, wouldn't that be the very definition of selling high (and before having to agonize on an extension)?

Ya there's certainly a price for everything which is really the whole crux of the convo and I would jump all over having multiple high picks vs just ours and Lively but do your point, won't happen (for all the same concerns that are shared all over this board regarding DLive).

[myconsumerclub]

We have been luckier than most with drafting talent and that luck may last longer if we can do a good job to land another building block or 2 next to Cooper. AD should get us picks not sure what else we can trade besides guys that other teams may not want. Id say if Lively plays well it would be hard to trade him but I cannot condone offering him a large contract given his inability to remain healthy. Still we have Gafford and Cisse plus we lucked into situation with an AD at PF whose real best position is still at the 5. Is it wise to build around Lively? Not now not after all his getting hurt. Id say it is going to boil down to how much we can secure him for as well. We could screw around and lose him in FA. I would rather trade him for what we can get if the guy is likely to bolt in free agency. With AD scheduled to get traded and Gafford also being injured we need to tank to add in more balls in the lottery and adding on picks from trades makes a lot more sense. I would not do an all out tank I would not want to piss off Cooper doing something so vile. Stealth tanking however is permitted if we can even do that.

The most important thing to focus on this season is developing the rookies. We got lucky and have as many as 3 that could be keepers and Kelly would make 4 but he can get stashed up in Frisco a season. The cat is out of the bag on Nembhard and Cisse and his blocking shots is certainly putting him on lists around the league so he may have already earned a position as Powells replacement. That takes a lot of the risk out of the realm of possibilities that surround trading Lively. I have not seen how deep this next draft is for big's that you can build around but we can't consider tanking will secure anything so steath tank and stay in shot of the play offs and if AD gets back to super star status maybe we can get a nice player back as well and still be a good team. Lively needs to be upping his value as well but that is not happening on restricted minutes and with him being unavailable.

[Winter]

One of the things currently in play now is that Max Christi is a real threat off catch-and-shoot 3's (45%). With Klay's recent improvement (now up to 36%), our guards are putting together much better perimeter offensive play these last few games. BWill is the only guard in the rotation shooting under the league average.

Our problem now is the forward position

Caleb Martin : An astounding 9.1%
PJ Washington: 33%
Cooper Flagg: 25%
Naji Marshall: 31%
A. Davis: 29.6%

These may get better.... or they may not. But this needs to improve in order to win games. There were a lot of open looks against Denver. Maybe Nembhard helps with this.

[Chicagojk]

One of the things currently in play now is that Max Christi is a real threat off catch-and-shoot 3's (45%). With Klay's recent improvement (now up to 36%), our guards are putting together much better perimeter offensive play these last few games. BWill is the only guard in the rotation shooting under the league average.

Our problem now is the forward position

Caleb Martin : An astounding 9.1%
PJ Washington: 33%
Cooper Flagg: 25%
Naji Marshall: 31%
A. Davis: 29.6%

These may get better.... or they may not. But this needs to improve in order to win games. There were a lot of open looks against Denver. Maybe Nembhard helps with this.

Yeah, I don't know how you could not like Max.   I don't think there is growth for him to be a third or so option, but he has gotten better at what he is good at.  Limits mistakes, good team player, solid defender (I would like to see a tad growth here though).  He is not the shooter of a Klay Thompson but he has been awesome at corner threes.   I think ideally he is a 25-30 minute player who fills a role and help teams by doing the little things and also hitting open shots.

Good percentages on our wings.  It is a concern.  It is one of the reasons why I think Marshall may not be a long term fit despite the good he provides.   I hope we find a wing/guard to fill in these minutes.   Maybe Max can fill in at three at times too.

[Winter]

My observation about Christi is that most his 3s are assisted. I almost never see him run the floor and make a pull-up 3 or fight through a screen and hit the jumper like Klay.

That's OK though. Remember Bullock made a living off that exact same 3-point shot for two full years before fading. And both Klay and Nembie can pull up and hit a three (as well as Hardy) on the fly. Christi can also beat his man, handle the ball inside, and still play a solid role off-ball. So Christi has become a solid 2-guard if the general statistics hold up.

I wasn't sure that would happen, but I think I've see enough now that I might be a believer.

And you may be right about Marshall. He and PJ both would be expendable for a SF-type with a good 3-point shot.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Good percentages on our wings.  It is a concern.  It is one of the reasons why I think Marshall may not be a long term fit despite the good he provides.   I hope we find a wing/guard to fill in these minutes.   Maybe Max can fill in at three at times too.

I was wondering if I would try Klay at the 3.   Nembhard, Christie, Klay, Flagg, AD I think might be our best lineup. Bwill, DLo, Naji, PJ, Powell/Gafford off the bench.

[mvossman]

I was wondering if I would try Klay at the 3.   Nembhard, Christie, Klay, Flagg, AD I think might be our best lineup.  Bwill, DLo, Naji, PJ, Powell/Gafford off the bench.

Wow.  Not long ago Klay was the worst player in the NBA.  Now we want to replace PJ with him in the starting lineup.  Things change fast.

[Winter]

Flagg and Kon "Rookies of the Month"

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2025/12/coop...month.html

[Chicagojk]

Lively is in a boot, so I would assume he is out weeks...maybe longer.  That is fine.  We need to see him when healthy.  No need to rush him back.  It should give us a good extended look at AD at the 5 too.   

I believe Gafford and PJ both may be out tonight too.

[Chicagojk]

rookie ladder.  Mavs at #2 and #10.   

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-dec-3-2025

[Smitty]

My guess is Gafford will now be out a couple weeks after reaggravating his ankle once again. It means you don't have to talk to AD about anything in regard to what works best, 4/5, he'll be the starting Center for a while, period. Powell has fortunately held his own, and Cisse has been just fine. PJ can play some small ball 5 in certain matchups and game situations. Speaking of PJ, he was questionable leading up to Wednesday's game before being ruled out. I expect him back against OKC Friday. The rotation is pretty straight forward now that we know who's out for a while.

Nembhard | Williams
Christie | Russell
Washington | Thompson
Flagg | Marshall
Davis | Powell

[DanSchwartzgan]

My guess is Gafford will now be out a couple weeks after reaggravating his ankle once again. It means you don't have to talk to AD about anything in regard to what works best, 4/5, he'll be the starting Center for a while, period. Powell has fortunately held his own, and Cisse has been just fine. PJ can play some small ball 5 in certain matchups and game situations. Speaking of PJ, he was questionable leading up to Wednesday's game before being ruled out. I expect him back against OKC Friday. The rotation is pretty straight forward now that we know who's out for a while.

Nembhard | Williams
Christie | Russell
Washington | Thompson
Flagg | Marshall
Davis | Powell

Thank goodness we don't platoon.  Those backups are atrocious defensively.

[mvossman]

My guess is Gafford will now be out a couple weeks after reaggravating his ankle once again. It means you don't have to talk to AD about anything in regard to what works best, 4/5, he'll be the starting Center for a while, period. Powell has fortunately held his own, and Cisse has been just fine. PJ can play some small ball 5 in certain matchups and game situations. Speaking of PJ, he was questionable leading up to Wednesday's game before being ruled out. I expect him back against OKC Friday. The rotation is pretty straight forward now that we know who's out for a while.

Nembhard | Williams
Christie | Russell
Washington | Thompson
Flagg | Marshall
Davis | Powell

I'm starting to think you might want to swap PJ and Marshall in that lineup.  PJ should be on the court every minute Flagg is off and I would not mind seeing some small ball with a frontcourt of PJ/Flagg.

[BigDirk41]

I'm starting to think you might want to swap PJ and Marshall in that lineup.  PJ should be on the court every minute Flagg is off and I would not mind seeing some small ball with a frontcourt of PJ/Flagg.

That's a pretty good idea. I just don't like Flagg and PJ on the court together. They are both better suited at the 4.  If they can limit their on court time, it would probably benefit both players.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I don't like Naji and Flagg on the court together either. Ideally you have a wing to plug in there but the Mavs don't.

[mvossman]

I don't like Naji and Flagg on the court together either.  Ideally you have a wing to plug in there but the Mavs don't.

Yeah, I don't think they have the long term solution at the 3 right now.  Eventually they are going to have to do something about the roster balance issue.  Of their top 6 guys three are centers and two are power forwards.

[Nowitzki Way]

Yeah, I don't think they have the long term solution at the 3 right now.  Eventually they are going to have to do something about the roster balance issue.  Of their top 6 guys three are centers and two are power forwards.

AD playing exclusive 5, and trading PJ for a real 3 would be my vote. 

If you start thinking of keeping AD long term, we don't have many long term solutions. Multiple trades need to be made to balance this thing around Flagg and AD. 

P.J. doesn't have a place. Neither does Marshall.  Then you have two extremely talented back up 5's in Gafford/Lively.  

Nembhard and even Max would seem to fit better off the bench. I think this team needs a long term starting 2 and 3.   I'm counting Kyrie as the 1 for now.