Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

The AD thing is so tricky.  I am not sure if there is a right answer.   His market is probably really low now, so he needs to play.   Although, if healthy this team will not be awful.    If you keep him, three years from now when Flagg is 21 what is AD (although he contract would be coming off the books).   

I don't know what I think despite feeling one way for a while.  I guess I am still in not forcing anything.  A healthy AD and Lively at center is probably more enticing for me than moving him for less than ideal return.   I think bringing Lively off the bench is not a hard sell at the moment due to his lack of availability.    For me though, the picture becomes much more clear or murky depending on what level of player they find in the draft next year.

There are just too many reasons to move him.  He doesn't fit the Flagg timeline, injury concerns will always be a problem, his massive contract, don't want anything to do with that extension, trading him is the easiest way to clear cap issues, and he has the Luka stigma here.  I don't think playing him more than a couple of games to show that he is healthy and in decent shape is going to make a difference.  The only question is if you move him soon or wait until the offseason when its easier to make trades.  My concern is that another significant injury could tank his value even farther.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
Bulls get Davis, Exum and a minimum from GSW
Dallas gets Kuminga, Vuc and Dosunmu plus expiring Huerter and Chicago's 2027 pick.
Warriors get Gafford and Caleb Martin plus the protected Portland pick that Chicago has.
 

Tyler just posted a simpler version of this.

Vuc goes to GSW (Gafford stays in Dallas),
AD goes to Chicago
White, Kuminga, Z. Collins to Dallas (plus picks)

Chicago would still have room under the tax to take back some salary and balance rosters.  Tyler has all the pick equity coming to Dallas, but I suspect GSW would get some of that as Vuc for Kuminga isn't balanced without it.

[mvossman]

Tyler just posted a simpler version of this.

Vuc goes to GSW (Gafford stays in Dallas),
AD goes to Chicago
White, Kuminga, Z. Collins to Dallas (plus picks)

Chicago would still have room under the tax to take back some salary and balance rosters.  Tyler has all the pick equity coming to Dallas, but I suspect GSW would get some of that as Vuc for Kuminga isn't balanced without it.

I'm not sure why we are trying to put Kuminga into this?  I get that he is young, but I don't think he fits and adding him means less draft capital coming to Mavs.  I would rather have the assets.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm not sure why we are trying to put Kuminga into this?  I get that he is young, but I don't think he fits and adding him means less draft capital coming to Mavs.  I would rather have the assets.

I really don't get the infatuation with a bunch of picks (especially those people arguing for a bunch of 2026 picks.

There is no value to being bad after this year.  Kuminga as an asset is much more valuable than Portland's middling first (if it stays a first) and another middling first from Chicago.  There is a chance he and Flagg are a really dynamic forward combo for years to come.  Even if you don't like the Kuminga/Flagg combo, I think you try to rehab his value in a new setting, opt him out this summer and sign him to a longer term deal.  Now you have a trade asset that is much more valuable than an extra Chicago pick.

[Winter]

I really don't get the infatuation with a bunch of picks (especially those people arguing for a bunch of 2026 picks.

There is no value to being bad after this year.  Kuminga as an asset is much more valuable than Portland's middling first (if it stays a first) and another middling first from Chicago.  There is a chance he and Flagg are a really dynamic forward combo for years to come.  Even if you don't like the Kuminga/Flagg combo, I think you try to rehab his value in a new setting, opt him out this summer and sign him to a longer term deal.  Now you have a trade asset that is much more valuable than an extra Chicago pick.

I may end up agreeing with both sides here. I do think Kuminga is more valuable, but his stats are very similar to PJ's. We are trying to fix a crowded front court, and we just traded 1 for 1. But yes, I take that over picks.

I think Coby is fine in that he can play either guard, but I would rather find some way of acquiring a good shooting guard rather than Kuminga.

The trade is not ideal, and I'd rather have a third team involved if we could get a guard.... but I'd probably do this deal rather than keep AD

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

I'm not sure why we are trying to put Kuminga into this?  I get that he is young, but I don't think he fits and adding him means less draft capital coming to Mavs.  I would rather have the assets.

Then reroute him for something else to a 3rd team. 

Trade Kuminga to the Nets for Traore, the right to swap in the 2026 draft (highly probable that this doesn't happen, but would give the Mavs possibly 15% more of a top 3 pick) and the Knicks 2027 1st.

[mvossman]

I really don't get the infatuation with a bunch of picks (especially those people arguing for a bunch of 2026 picks.

There is no value to being bad after this year.  Kuminga as an asset is much more valuable than Portland's middling first (if it stays a first) and another middling first from Chicago.  There is a chance he and Flagg are a really dynamic forward combo for years to come.  Even if you don't like the Kuminga/Flagg combo, I think you try to rehab his value in a new setting, opt him out this summer and sign him to a longer term deal.  Now you have a trade asset that is much more valuable than an extra Chicago pick.

I'm not infatuated with picks, I just don't like the player or the fit. We already have two guys who's best position is probably PF and you are trading for a third.  I don't think its good for Flagg development and I don't think its a good situation to rehab Kuminga value.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Then reroute him for something else to a 3rd team. 

Trade Kuminga to the Nets for Traore, the right to swap in the 2026 draft (highly probable that this doesn't happen, but would give the Mavs possibly 15% more of a top 3 pick) and the Knicks 2027 1st.

If Brooklyn wants Kuminga, they don't need us.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm not infatuated with picks, I just don't like the player or the fit. We already have two guys who's best position is probably PF and you are trading for a third.  I don't think its good for Flagg development and I don't think its a good situation to rehab Kuminga value.

I think there is a pretty easy path to making this work.  The top nine in the rotation is basically two centers, two SG's and two PG's with Flagg, PJ and Kuminga splitting 96 minutes at the three and four.  Two of the three are on the court at all times.  Nothing we are doing is permanent.  We are tearing down Nico's vision which will take a series of trades.  This is a trade that leads to other trades for me.  

And, there is some chance Kuminga works.  He's had a .370 three point shooting season and a 4.6 WS season and a season where he was +4.2 on court for the season.  He's had three seasons where his TS% was right at .600.  He is athletic, rebounds well and he's only 23.  Somewhere in there might be a useful player.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

with Flagg, PJ and Kuminga splitting 96 minutes at the three and four.  Two of the three are on the court at all times.  

No thanks.

We have a skills shortage and part of the problem is guys that should be playing the 4 at the 3. There's a real discussion to be had if we need to move PJ, not add another guy that fits that description.

Plus Kuminga seems like a low IQ player. Kerr basically hates to play him.

[Winter]

To Dan's point earlier, you could be trading one of those PFs - either Naji or PJ - at the TD (or Kuminga in the summer) to fix the congestion at PF.

It's a situation where we fans are impatient to get everything we want immediately, but in this trade we have a guard now who can score and we still have assets we can move. So I don't have to see this trade as perfect, I just have to see that we still have assets after shuffling the deck along with our scoring guard acquisition.

[Mavs2021]

I really don't get the infatuation with a bunch of picks (especially those people arguing for a bunch of 2026 picks.

There is no value to being bad after this year.  Kuminga as an asset is much more valuable than Portland's middling first (if it stays a first) and another middling first from Chicago.  There is a chance he and Flagg are a really dynamic forward combo for years to come.  Even if you don't like the Kuminga/Flagg combo, I think you try to rehab his value in a new setting, opt him out this summer and sign him to a longer term deal.  Now you have a trade asset that is much more valuable than an extra Chicago pick.

We need players on Flagg´s timeline and we especially need a legit 2nd star. This is a generational draft, where you´ll be guaranteed to find very good players in the middle and late 1st round. The whole plan is to find the 2nd star. Nothing else matters. We have Lively and Christie as excellent young rotational pieces/starters. We need that 2nd star. This is the best draft to own four top 20 picks, two in the lottery, to make this happen. Plus Dillingham and Essengue are still completely unexposed former lottery picks.

[F Gump]

I am wayyyyyyyy uninterested in Kuminga. He's an awful fit on a team that already has CF and PJW. And he's really such a meh player. On a big contract. Yuck.

[DanSchwartzgan]

We need players on Flagg´s timeline and we especially need a legit 2nd star. This is a generational draft, where you´ll be guaranteed to find very good players in the middle and late 1st round. The whole plan is to find the 2nd star. Nothing else matters. We have Lively and Christie as excellent young rotational pieces/starters. We need that 2nd star. This is the best draft to own four top 20 picks, two in the lottery, to make this happen. Plus Dillingham and Essengue are still completely unexposed former lottery picks.

No one is giving up a lottery pick in this draft.  

No team that doesn't control its pick the next year is going to try to work four rookies (or even 3) into their rotation.  

From a strategic standpoint, a pick in 2027 is more valuable than something in the late teens in 2026 as it opens trade possibilities.  Historic drafts come fairly regularly.  The top of the DSJ draft was supposed to be incredible.  How did that work out?  Also, the second star doesn't have to be 19 and having a lotto pick doesn't guarantee the 19 year old you get is going to be a star.

[mvossman]

I think there is a pretty easy path to making this work.  The top nine in the rotation is basically two centers, two SG's and two PG's with Flagg, PJ and Kuminga splitting 96 minutes at the three and four.  Two of the three are on the court at all times.  Nothing we are doing is permanent.  We are tearing down Nico's vision which will take a series of trades.  This is a trade that leads to other trades for me.  

And, there is some chance Kuminga works.  He's had a .370 three point shooting season and a 4.6 WS season and a season where he was +4.2 on court for the season.  He's had three seasons where his TS% was right at .600.  He is athletic, rebounds well and he's only 23.  Somewhere in there might be a useful player.

Kuminga is a career 33% three point shooter on low volume.  He spiked a 37% in his second year (on low volume) but he barely broke 30 the next two seasons.  There is no trend suggesting that is getting better.  He is also a poor mid range shooter.  He does all of this damage at the rim.  I'm sure he could turn out to be a good player, but if I was looking for an example of the kind of player I don't want to put next to Flagg, he would be high on the list.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

If Brooklyn wants Kuminga, they don't need us.

Sure, Brooklyn may not need the Mavs financially, but they do need to entice GS. The Warriors don't care about future picks. They're playing for right now. And Dallas has right now players like AD, Gafford, Naji, etc, which Brooklyn can't offer. 

I wouldn't be so dismissive.

[Chicagojk]

There are just too many reasons to move him.  He doesn't fit the Flagg timeline, injury concerns will always be a problem, his massive contract, don't want anything to do with that extension, trading him is the easiest way to clear cap issues, and he has the Luka stigma here.  I don't think playing him more than a couple of games to show that he is healthy and in decent shape is going to make a difference.  The only question is if you move him soon or wait until the offseason when its easier to make trades.  My concern is that another significant injury could tank his value even farther.

I think I have moved on to the conclusion that the timeline will not match up, but still I would not be in a rush to make a deal.   If he gets hurt seriously again, then it is egg on my face.  Still though, some of these packages don't move the needle at all for me.   If I am the Mavs I view him as a top 15 player and expect to get proper return.  With the new cap, his high salary, and his injury history you may need to wait.  I am willing to wait at this moment.

[Mavs2021]

No one is giving up a lottery pick in this draft.  

No team that doesn't control its pick the next year is going to try to work four rookies (or even 3) into their rotation.  

From a strategic standpoint, a pick in 2027 is more valuable than something in the late teens in 2026 as it opens trade possibilities.  Historic drafts come fairly regularly.  The top of the DSJ draft was supposed to be incredible.  How did that work out?  Also, the second star doesn't have to be 19 and having a lotto pick doesn't guarantee the 19 year old you get is going to be a star.

Luckily teams do enjoy giving up young All-Stars, which seems to be your masterplan. So who are we getting?

[mvossman]

I think I have moved on to the conclusion that the timeline will not match up, but still I would not be in a rush to make a deal.   If he gets hurt seriously again, then it is egg on my face.  Still though, some of these packages don't move the needle at all for me.   If I am the Mavs I view him as a top 15 player and expect to get proper return.  With the new cap, his high salary, and his injury history you may need to wait.  I am willing to wait at this moment.

If you mean wait until the offseason, that may be the right move, but I don't think they can afford to wait longer, if for no other reason than to clear the cap issues.

[F Gump]

If you mean wait until the offseason, that may be the right move, but I don't think they can afford to wait longer, if for no other reason than to clear the cap issues.

It doesn't take a trade of AD to "clear the cap issue." There are multiple other avenues. Unfortunately Nico didn't care about cap concerns (or didn't even realize there were cap issues, or was clueless about how the cap works) but the next guy won't be so stupid, hopefully. (Is it even possible for anyone else to be as stupid?) It does NOT have to happen now.

Trade Hardy for air - and it's solved. That can be done in July. It's that easy to be under A2. Just one option (of many). There are other possibilities, and more players that need to be jettisoned, so the solution will perhaps be more extensive. But it's more an issue of who to trade, and what you get back, and getting the MAX value in return, and crafting a roster to compete, rather than take a baseball bat to the roster and smash it as soon as possible.

In addition, there is nothing they can do this season that erases them paying tax, practically speaking. And they won't be over A2 this season. So the only issue is Dumont has to pay a bigger tax penalty instead of a smaller one -- and that's his own fault for Nico-ing us which enabled really bad cap consequences from the trades.

The key issue is maximizing the TALENT while shrinking the payroll. Very doable. But it takes an expert.

I still vote that the right solution will be "Hire Presti" (rather than blindly give away AD or any other talent).