Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[omahen]

Not that anyone cares, but I will be in Ljubljana on 8/25.  It is a day trip excursion on a cruise I'm taking.  I don't know how much free time I'll have, but if anyone from the area has a recommendation for a must see (other than standard cruise excursion stuff), I'd love to know.

Nice to hear that, Slovenia is lovely. First time in Slovenia?

I guess if you are here just for a day, it would be best to see one of our biggest highlights. Postojna cave and nearbye Predjama castle (Predjama translates as Infront of a cave) if you are into such things, Bled lake if you prefer beautiful Alpine environment. Valley of Soča river is arguably most beautiful part of the country with many adrenaline activities (rafting, zipline, canyoning,...) if you are into such things. If you are into history, there is a great small WW1 museum in the Soča Valley (Soča Valley was a place of huge WW1 front and several hundred thousand people died). Or just a day at the beach and have some good food and drinks. I guess I could recommend some less known quality restaurants, if you wish. What is the cruise offering?

Postojna cave and Predjama castle
Postojna Cave Park - Welcome to the official website

Lake Bled
Lake Bled in Slovenia: Everything You Need to Know 2025

Soča Valley
Soča Valley Slovenia Official Site - Paradise for Active Vacation in Nature

WW1 museum
The Kobarid Museum

Edit: if you are in Ljubljana, go to the castle (short walk up the hill or funicular), take a walk in a very nice and small city centre, enjoy the vibe. Ljubljana in summer is full of life, a lot of things going on, many tourists.

https://www.slovenia.info/en/stories/fes...his-summer

Edit 2: I live in Ljubljana and I would be happy to buy you a drink, if you wish a bit of basketball discussion

[DanSchwartzgan]

Nice to hear that, Slovenia is lovely. First time in Slovenia?

 
Edit 2: I live in Ljubljana and I would be happy to buy you a drink, if you wish a bit of basketball discussion

Yes, first time.  Your detailed recommendations were better than I could have imagined.  Thank you!

Let me get some detail about what is already planned and timing.  It might have to be me buying you lunch if you are available.  I will reach out closer to the time.

[ThisIStheYear]

The sleeper value in the Luka trade is that LA is getting an absolute steal of a contract until Luka finally requalifies for the super max. The Lakers are going to be in a very advantageous position for two or three years. Luka needs to get his title in that window.

[mvossman]

The sleeper value in the Luka trade is that LA is getting an absolute steal of a contract until Luka finally requalifies for the super max. The Lakers are going to be in a very advantageous position for two or three years. Luka needs to get his title in that window.

Hard to see it.  The team is not constructed for him and limited on assets.  When Lebron walks it will look a lot like the early Luka Mavs teams.

[KillerLeft]

Hard to see it.  The team is not constructed for him and limited on assets.  When Lebron walks it will look a lot like the early Luka Mavs teams.

It might look quite a bit worse, in fact. The early Luka teams had early Luka.

[Jym]

It might look quite a bit worse, in fact. The early Luka teams had early Luka.

still a bit bummed Donnie never did any serious post-KP moves 
we beat those Clippers teams with any real upgrade

[HoosierDaddyKid]

still a bit bummed Donnie never did any serious post-KP moves 
we beat those Clippers teams with any real upgrade

 It's ancient history bro. They have either through luck or fate got a player this year who's a potentially phenomenal player to build around to move forward. You can't change the past.

[ThisIStheYear]

These Lakers, who just finished 3rd in the tough Western Conference, and have improved their team, are far better off than that early Luka Mavs team, and Luka is about to have his best years. Showtime will be rocking this season. The bad roster fit is actually the Mavs and AD. This roster, with 3 non shooting bigs who need to play a lot minutes, makes no sense at all. The Mavs need to clean house and build a modern roster around Flagg.

[DallasMaverick]

These Lakers, who just finished 3rd in the tough Western Conference, and have improved their team, are far better off than that early Luka Mavs team, and Luka is about to have his best years. Showtime will be rocking this season. The bad roster fit is actually the Mavs and AD.  This roster, with 3 non shooting bigs who need to play a lot minutes, makes no sense at all. The Mavs need to clean house and build a modern roster around Flagg.

So, what’s your prediction on their regular-season records this year?

Sounds like you think it’s a pretty big spread. Maybe a 10-win advantage for the Lakers? 20?

50 wins for Lakers, 30 for Mavs?

[SleepingHero]

Hard to see it.  The team is not constructed for him and limited on assets.  When Lebron walks it will look a lot like the early Luka Mavs teams.

On the flip side, they will have plenty of cap space (like 50+ mil) and a Luka in his prime and they are the Lakers.

Now 2026 FA class isn't crazy, but that kind of space means the Lakers are prime to be a good trade candidate. 

It can easily go either way. The Lakers even with a locked up Luka can look so bare of talent that they are barely a .500 team, OR they get rid of Lebron, trade Reaves and get a solid SG, and trade for a star using their space and look lethal for the next couple of years with Luka in his prime.


What I just don't understand why Luka is signing a 4 year deal instead of a 2+1 deal.

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Suns and Kings have reportedly made “concrete” trade offers to the Warriors for Jonathan Kuminga, per @ShamsCharania

[KillerLeft]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Suns and Kings have reportedly made “concrete” trade offers to the Warriors for Jonathan Kuminga, per @ShamsCharania

It really feels like this Kuminga thing is the holdup...I'm sick of hearing about him, so I hope it gets resolved soon.

[ThisIStheYear]

So, what’s your prediction on their regular-season records this year?

Sounds like you think it’s a pretty big spread. Maybe a 10-win advantage for the Lakers? 20?

50 wins for Lakers, 30 for Mavs?

Lakers with 53-54 wins. Mavs will win about the same as this past year. They won’t have a decent guard on the roster for at least 60 games if not the whole season, which is untenable, especially combined with 3 non shooting bigs.  I’m just watching to see Cooper’s development.

[F Gump]

On Kuminga, I think there's a very real chance he ends up taking their 7.9M QO.

I think he wants 20M+ starting salary as what he feels he's worth.

I think GS wants him as an "asset" to use, rather than a player to keep around, with their bigger goal to have him with a salary low enough where he's not in the way of Horford and Melton being added. It may even mean they are making him no actual multi-year offer at all, just leaving QO on the table, and telling him to get an offer for them to match (or decline). If he signs at the QO he's not a trade asset (it gives him no-trade control, and if he waives the no-trade, then he carries with him no Bird rights for the acquiring team to sign him with) but his 7.9M QO is good value for his potential to help this season. And then he walks next summer. Other teams see no value in giving him an offer that GS will match, solving their problem for them, nor in a SNT and giving up much value to sign a player now who would otherwise becomes UFA next summer at no cost at all.

I'm not sure there's really a workable middle ground for the parties. JK doesn't want to be stuck long-term in GS on a cheap contract (as he would see it). They don't want him clogging their cap (paid more than they want for multiple years) and keeping them from Horford/Melton now. So I think he ends up signing the QO and then he walks next summer.

To me the middle ground from where this stands (imo only a slight possibility) is at some point they mutually agree to just divorce and move on, which means GS asks for permission to withdraw the QO, in essence (after he agrees) it removes the ROFR control so he can sign elsewhere and both sides can finish their business.

It's possible this same sort of scenario is playing out with Grimes, Thomas, and perhaps Giddey too. But I think it's most pronounced in GS because I think they are the team whose RFA player excites them the least, to keep him, however they believe he has value around the league to other teams and want to wring some value out of the situation to get some return.

[F Gump]

Lakers with 53-54 wins. Mavs will win about the same as this past year. They won’t have a decent guard on the roster for at least 60 games if not the whole season, which is untenable, especially combined with 3 non shooting bigs.  I’m just watching to see Cooper’s development.

I think Kyrie is going to return relatively "soon," ie when compared to the prevailing doom-and-gloomy predictions. My over/under is G41, about 1/15, halfway through the season, and my guess is UNDER.

As far as the last half, if Kyrie is back and playing by then as I assume he will be, they should be improved over last season's back half. Way improved, considering the Mavs got almost nothing from any of their top 3 PGs in the second half (Luka 0, Kyrie 9, Exum 20), and of course nothing from Flagg or DAR.  

The question of how they will do is really just about the start to the season and how many of the pre-Kyrie games they can win, and whether they have enough talent to match last season's 22-19 start. Last season in the first half, at PG Luka missed 22 of those 41 games, Kyrie 10, and Exum all 41, so it's not like they had huge PG depth to carry them then. We also should consider the Mavs got 0 games then from Flagg and DAR at PG, and both of those should contribute this season and be able to pick up the slack to some degree. In addition, so long as they are healthy, as a team they should be better defensively, perhaps even intimidating, with long agile players all over the floor.

[mvossman]

I think Kyrie is going to return relatively "soon," ie when compared to the prevailing doom-and-gloomy predictions. My over/under is G41, about 1/15, halfway through the season, and my guess is UNDER.

As far as the last half, if Kyrie is back and playing by then as I assume he will be, they should be improved over last season's back half. Way improved, considering the Mavs got almost nothing from any of their top 3 PGs in the second half (Luka 0, Kyrie 9, Exum 20), and of course nothing from Flagg or DAR.  

The question of how they will do is really just about the start to the season and how many of the pre-Kyrie games they can win, and whether they have enough talent to match last season's 22-19 start. Last season in the first half, at PG Luka missed 22 of those 41 games, Kyrie 10, and Exum all 41, so it's not like they had huge PG depth to carry them then. We also should consider the Mavs got 0 games then from Flagg and DAR at PG, and both of those should contribute this season and be able to pick up the slack to some degree. In addition, so long as they are healthy, as a team they should be better defensively, perhaps even intimidating, with long agile players all over the floor.

I think its asking a lot for a nearly 34 year old Kyrie to come back from that injury and be immediately what he was.  My guess is it will be like Dinwiddie who struggled his first couple of months, and at Kyrie age he may never get fully back to what he was.

That being said, its hard not to imagine this team being better than last year given all of the injuries.  But the NBA is a strange beast.  With all of the tanking its relatively easy to get to 40 wins.  Its much, much harder to get to 50, especially in the west.  They may need some injury luck to win enough to get out of the play in.  Hopefully the next medical staff is better than the last one.  Have they hired that team yet?

[michaeltex]

I know there are a LOT of question marks about how this current roster will perform. Obviously the talent is there, what we don't know is whether the individual parts can mesh into something greater.

One aspect is that DAL is BIG. AD, Lively, Gaff, PJ, Flagg, Naji, etc., all fit that category and they all have skills to exploit that advantage. Especially if they are playing together, stay healthy and are a deep enough rotation to support a high energy play style. Enough so that WC teams are looking to add size, because that's the one skill you can't teach. IMO, One-Big teams are going to be a fixture of the past, (see Gobert, Rudi).

Going small like GSW has for the last 10 years is difficult if you don't have a Curry/Klay weapon to use. And now they are looking for size. I've read that even OKC is looking to improve their big rotation, although the mugging style defense covers up some of the short comings. Now that they have a Larry O, it will be interesting how much the league puts up with the ultra physical defensive techniques. Especially since there is some question about player safety involved.

Speaking of OKC, which I guess is the standard to measure by now, DAL went 3-4 in their matchups last season. The three wins were all without Luka and two were without DLive as well. So I have some interest in how this group performs and whether they can make other teams matchup with them for a change.

[mvossman]

I know there are a LOT of question marks about how this current roster will perform. Obviously the talent is there, what we don't know is whether the individual parts can mesh into something greater.

One aspect is that DAL is BIG. AD, Lively, Gaff, PJ, Flagg, Naji, etc., all fit that category and they all have skills to exploit that advantage. Especially if they are playing together, stay healthy and are a deep enough rotation to support a high energy play style. Enough so that WC teams are looking to add size, because that's the one skill you can't teach. IMO, One-Big teams are going to be a fixture of the past, (see Gobert, Rudi).

Going small like GSW has for the last 10 years is difficult if you don't have a Curry/Klay weapon to use. And now they are looking for size. I've read that even OKC is looking to improve their big rotation, although the mugging style defense covers up some of the short comings. Now that they have a Larry O, it will be interesting how much the league puts up with the ultra physical defensive techniques. Especially since there is some question about player safety involved.

Speaking of OKC, which I guess is the standard to measure by now, DAL went 3-4 in their matchups last season. The three wins were all without Luka and two were without DLive as well. So I have some interest in how this group performs and whether they can make other teams matchup with them for a change.

I have read a lot on here that size is coming back and that is where the NBA is heading.  But it still looks to me like space is what wins in the playoffs, not size.  Its not just the Warriors, we just watched two teams in the finals play with more space than size.  Same with the prior champion.  Size is great, but I don't think trading space for size is a winning formula.  I guess we will see.

[F Gump]

I have read a lot on here that size is coming back and that is where the NBA is heading.  But it still looks to me like space is what wins in the playoffs, not size.  Its not just the Warriors, we just watched two teams in the finals play with more space than size.  Same with the prior champion.  Size is great, but I don't think trading space for size is a winning formula.  I guess we will see.

"I have read a lot on here that size is coming back and that is where the NBA is heading." --- It's not OUR analysis. It's what the NBA itself is doing, so apparently they have perceived that there's a good reason to go there. Hoops at the NBA level is so multi-faceted, and an advantage can be gained in many ways. 

"But it still looks to me like space is what wins in the playoffs, not size." --- I think there is a tendency to search for these grand declarations of what is the ideal winning formula, when instead there is really no such thing. That's the NBA, where a team finds an advantage and uses it to win a title, then some other teams mimic that and try to outdo them at their own game BUT other teams try to find a contrasting style that's better. In the end, either can be the answer.

And sometimes we even mis-identify what advantage the winner used -- for example, with OKC, was their difference-making special sauce really spacing? or was it defense? or was it SGA getting ridiculously favorable treatment by the refs? If they had been without any of those 3, would we have seen a different winner?

Don't forget that a year ago, it was BOS who had invented basketball. Millions of 3s. And now they are an afterthought. And a year prior to that, it was DEN who was unstoppable. A dominant big who is so versatile that he can't be stopped. And so on. It's been 8 different winners in the last 8 seasons.

Maybe OKC will repeat. They are the heavy favorite. Then again, recent history says next year's winning formula is still TBD.

[mvossman]

"I have read a lot on here that size is coming back and that is where the NBA is heading." --- It's not OUR analysis. It's what the NBA itself is doing, so apparently they have perceived that there's a good reason to go there. Hoops at the NBA level is so multi-faceted, and an advantage can be gained in many ways. 

"But it still looks to me like space is what wins in the playoffs, not size." --- I think there is a tendency to search for these grand declarations of what is the ideal winning formula, when instead there is really no such thing. That's the NBA, where a team finds an advantage and uses it to win a title, then some other teams mimic that and try to outdo them at their own game BUT other teams try to find a contrasting style that's better. In the end, either can be the answer.

And sometimes we even mis-identify what advantage the winner used -- for example, with OKC, was their difference-making special sauce really spacing? or was it defense? or was it SGA getting ridiculously favorable treatment by the refs? If they had been without any of those 3, would we have seen a different winner?

Don't forget that a year ago, it was BOS who had invented basketball. Millions of 3s. And now they are an afterthought. And a year prior to that, it was DEN who was unstoppable. A dominant big who is so versatile that he can't be stopped. And so on. It's been 8 different winners in the last 8 seasons.

Maybe OKC will repeat. They are the heavy favorite. Then again, recent history says next year's winning formula is still TBD.

Except there are some strong patterns regarding what has been successful, especially if you look at the champions over the last several years:

Just about every champion has a top 5 offensive creator.  The only recent exception is Boston, who had an insane amount of talent/creation in the starting lineup (Tatum, Brown, Jrue, White).  

Every champion has had a top 10 defense.

Every champion has had no more than two playoff rotational bigs, and at least one of them can space the floor.  The closest exception to this is the Covid Lakers with AD and Howard.  

The Mavs have had the most success when adhering to this model.  Luka as the creator, defense led by Maxi/DFS/Bullock or Lively/PJ/DJJ and Maxi as the spacing big (I will mention that Luka needed help in both cases with a high level secondary creator in Brunson/Kyrie).  Then Nico lets DJJ walk without replacing him, making it unlikely to meet the defense requirement, and then he trades away our elite creation.  In the near term, this team will have to match the Boston model using creation by committee with Kyrie, AD, Flagg and probably a trade.  I have seen nothing to suggest that employing three non shooting bigs is going to do anything to counter the lack of creation.  My guess is in the unlikely event that both AD and Lively are healthy in the playoffs, you will see one of them as single big 90% of the time.