MAVS NEWS:

[Mavs2021]

If Klay getting special attention is consistent across opponents, could this contribute to his reduced shooting efficiency? He came here as a player who benefitted from movement, not just as a stand in the corner kick out target. At least that's what I recall the party line was last summer. Is that his role going forward? Is he OK with being reduced to that?

He gets no special attention. I have seen teams put their worst defenders on him, cause he can´t create separation.

[KillerLeft]

He gets no special attention. I have seen teams put their worst defenders on him, cause he can´t create separation.

Sure, but that's not the point, is it? The point is whether or not those defenders will leave him if/when the Mavs devise sets that tempt them to do so. According to the Karala video, Memphis did not.

[mvossman]

He cannot. But he will be RFA, which means Mavs can match any offer if they wish (and that matching aspect, with a waiting period, does tend to scare away offers).

Did they shorten the waiting period recently?  I wonder if its less of a deterrent than it used to be.

[F Gump]

Did they shorten the waiting period recently?  I wonder if its less of a deterrent than it used to be.

The length of time has some impact, but even a couple days is huge because of:
1 the requirement to have the cap room cleared before being able to have a player sign the OFFER sheet (which means you have bypassed any opportunity to be an over-cap team in free agency, probably giving up some or all of the free agent holds for Bird rights on your own players, which is a big advantage overall);
2 the uncertainty of knowing the outcome while you wait (after all that, you may end up with air for your efforts-- for lots of examples, see: Mavs, Dallas, history of free agency); and 
3 the speed of free agency (your team's cap is paralyzed while players come off the board right and left, and few if any good free agents want to wait to be your backup plan, the leftovers -- recall DJJ not wanting to be 2nd fiddle, and the timing didn't even get to the end of the moratorium, much less to an offer sheet wait following the moratorium).

Having RFA rights isn't ever a lock unless you have a max-level player, because another team can make a stupid-money offer too big to even consider matching. But is a stupid-money offer going to happen on a 9 ppg backup? Seems remote to me. 

QG feels like he fits in the "around MLE" slotting that the Mavs prefer to pay, and the Josh Green comp that's been mentioned is a good upper end of the range he should land in imo. I also think Naji is a good comp - a promising backup on another team, that you think might have some upside. It seems like the Mavs are in great wait-and-see position on such a player, with RFA rights that give them the final say. That assumes he continues to play well, of course, and stay healthy.

[michaeltex]

Interesting article by I. Franko on the evolution of NBA offenses in general and DAL in specifics.


https://digginbasketball.substack.com/

[Chicagojk]

Hollinger's early season disappointment team:

Lebron
Mikal Bridges-14 free throw attempts or the whole season and
Nearly everything in Philly besides Jared McCain
Tyrese Haliburton and Miles Turner- They desperately need to get right and play the Mavs again
Trae Young
Kyle Kusma-
Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter- This one hurts. Kings desperately need Murray to be better. Shooting 30% from three. What happened there? Maybe he turns it on. I thought he would be like a 18 point a game scorer with good shooting and solid defense.
top 15 picks in the draft-
Scoot Henderson

[Chicagojk]

Knicks beat the Hornets last night by 24 and really blew game open in the third (38 to 16). Look at the minutes of the starter though. OG 40 minutes, KAT- 39, Josh Hard 38. Brunson 27 (he may got dinged though).....and Mikal Bridges 47 minutes. Wow. Precious off the bench with 12 minutes and MIles Mcbride with 28. No one else off the bench got more than 3 minutes.

[Mavs2021]

Sure, but that's not the point, is it? The point is whether or not those defenders will leave him if/when the Mavs devise sets that tempt them to do so. According to the Karala video, Memphis did not.

He now has a lower shooting efficiency for the season than Jaden Hardy. Literally only Kleber from our regular rotation is worse. Teams will gladly let him take shots. He has missed plenty of open looks, too. He was not brought in here to be literally the worst shooter on the team. Everybody was projecting a bounce back season with +40% 3pt shooting; from playing off Luka and Kyrie. 

But now we have to pretend he contributes to winning via being the gravitational pull, although Kidd has to emergency sub him during every 3rd quarter and finish the game with a different line-up.

Last six games he´s shooting 28% from the field. You know what be happening here, if THJ took 10 shots per game at 28%.

Mavs didn´t/don´t pay him $17M p.a. to be this. No need to sugarcoat this. I have seen enough to know this Kyrie/Luka/Klay thing won´t work. It might work incredibly well with Klay off the bench.

[KillerLeft]

He now has a lower shooting efficiency for the season than Jaden Hardy. Literally only Kleber from our regular rotation is worse. Teams will gladly let him take shots. 

...only Memphis didn't, which is what we were talking about. 

Last night, Washington DID, and I have to say, he showed signs of coming out of his shooting slump. He made them pay several times.

Look, I've been slightly disappointed by Thompson's start as well, but you seem like you're ready to write off the whole signing already, and the season has sort of just started. I realize your blind spot is adding anyone with a 3 at the beginning of their age, and while I think that's bonkers, I've learned to just read past that. In this specific case, I agree that Thompson has underwhelmed, but I don't think he's been nearly as bad as you say, or as bad as the panic crew expected right after the signing. His defense is actually not bad at all, so far, and he's a much better all around player than I expected. It's really just a shooting slump we're witnessing. If he can get to the other side of it, I'd say he'll be exactly the player the Mavs thought they were getting.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Knicks beat the Hornets last night by 24 and really blew game open in the third (38 to 16).  Look at the minutes of the starter though.  OG 40 minutes, KAT- 39, Josh Hard 38.  Brunson 27 (he may got dinged though).....and Mikal Bridges 47 minutes.  Wow.  Precious off the bench with 12 minutes and MIles Mcbride with 28.  No one else off the bench got more than 3 minutes.

See DEN.  It seems that thin rosters have no problem burning out their starters this early in the season.

[SleepingHero]

@HPbasketball
I'd also note that this season, despite Luka missing six games and them going 5-1 in those games, the Mavericks are 10.8 with Luka on-court, which the highest of his career. He's had the IMPACT this season that I've asked for in past seasons.

Jokic is +10.2.

[F Gump]

Wondering what kind of illness Naji has, left in the middle of a game and has missed 4 more since then. And he's still not even being considered to be questionable or doubtful, he's still bluntly "OUT" which means he's not even close. Seems odd.

[Dundalis]

He now has a lower shooting efficiency for the season than Jaden Hardy. Literally only Kleber from our regular rotation is worse. Teams will gladly let him take shots. He has missed plenty of open looks, too. He was not brought in here to be literally the worst shooter on the team. Everybody was projecting a bounce back season with +40% 3pt shooting; from playing off Luka and Kyrie. 

But now we have to pretend he contributes to winning via being the gravitational pull, although Kidd has to emergency sub him during every 3rd quarter and finish the game with a different line-up.

Last six games he´s shooting 28% from the field. You know what be happening here, if THJ took 10 shots per game at 28%.

Mavs didn´t/don´t pay him $17M p.a. to be this. No need to sugarcoat this. I have seen enough to know this Kyrie/Luka/Klay thing won´t work. It might work incredibly well with Klay off the bench.

Essentially you are assuming after 24 games that this is the season his shooting falls off a cliff, ignoring previous data on him leading into this season. Combined with strong evidence of his poor shooting early season for the majority of his career. I don't think anyone has seen enough to decide anything when it comes to Klay.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Hollinger's early season disappointment team:

Lebron
Mikal Bridges-14 free throw attempts or the whole season and
Nearly everything in Philly besides Jared McCain
Tyrese Haliburton and Miles Turner-  They desperately need to get right and play the Mavs again
Trae Young
Kyle Kusma-
Keegan Murray  and Kevin Huerter- This one hurts.  Kings desperately need Murray to be better.  Shooting 30% from three.  What happened there?  Maybe he turns it on.  I thought he would be like a 18 point a game scorer with good shooting and solid defense.
top 15 picks in the draft-
Scoot Henderson

I don't see why Trae Young is listed on here. Atlanta has been playing well; they're only loss was to the Mavs. They beat the Bucks twice, Cavs, and Celtics winning 6 straight. Young has had two games with at least 20 assists. Dyson Daniels leads the league in steals and deflections, and Jalen Johnson is really developing into a very good PF. I don't know if it's sustainable, but for the moment they can take advantage in the weaker East.

[SleepingHero]

Nick Angstadt from Locked on Mavs posted this very interesting stat:



The difference between Gafford and Lively in the starting lineup. 24 point swing.

[KillerLeft]

Nick Angstadt from Locked on Mavs posted this very interesting stat:



The difference between Gafford and Lively in the starting lineup. 24 point swing.

Pretty easy to see that coming for most of us before the season. I'm happy Kidd and staff have this figured out now. Lively's defense is right with the starting group and Gafford's offense is helpful for the bench group.

[SleepingHero]

The fact the Wizards can't even make the real graph and have to be inserted into the lowest corner AND the Nuggets just lost to them. Sheesh.

[Dundalis]

Pretty easy to see that coming for most of us before the season. I'm happy Kidd and staff have this figured out now. Lively's defense is right with the starting group and Gafford's offense is helpful for the bench group.

Not sure that's representative of the difference defensively between Lively and Gafford though. Gafford had the superior defensive rating last season and better net rating. Gafford's defensive rating is 5 points worse this season than last. Lively is clearly the better all round defender, but I do expect the data to even out a lot more as the season goes on. Gaff has more weaknesses that can be exploited compared to Lively, but he is still absolutely a positive interior defender, and defended field goal differentials still bears that out.

[GATA]

I don't see why Trae Young is listed on here. Atlanta has been playing well; they're only loss was to the Mavs. They beat the Bucks twice, Cavs, and Celtics winning 6 straight. Young has had two games with at least 20 assists. Dyson Daniels leads the league in steals and deflections, and Jalen Johnson is really developing into a very good PF. I don't know if it's sustainable, but for the moment they can take advantage in the weaker East.

Young is a disaster.   One of the worst shot takers I’ve ever seen.  Easily the worst defender in the league 

[KillerLeft]

Not sure that's representative of the difference defensively between Lively and Gafford though. Gafford had the superior defensive rating last season and better net rating. Gafford's defensive rating is 5 points worse this season than last. Lively is clearly the better all round defender, but I do expect the data to even out a lot more as the season goes on. Gaff has more weaknesses that can be exploited compared to Lively, but he is still absolutely a positive interior defender, and defended field goal differentials still bears that out.

It's ok that you're not sure. People can disagree, and I am sure. Both players are effective shot deterrents in the paint (Lively's better at that, too, but that's not the different part), but good ball movement really exploits Gafford quite easily, and it's drastically more easy for the opponent to generate open 3's when he's in the game (which is what they're all trying to do in the first place).