Game 4: Dallas Mavericks (2-1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1)

[Mavs2021]

Kyrie has become a community man and model teammate. Intentionally misses two FTs to give the fans free burgers, and allow Marshall to make a confidence building game-winning play.

[Jym]

we've played absolutely horrible for stretches and still somehow 3-1
only up from here (if Luka can get his legs under him)

[Chicagojk]

what a win. Kyrie was awesome. Luka fought through it. PJ, Lively and Gafford were good (lets fix the free throw rebounding though). Grimes with some nice minutes. Marshall still can't finish at the rim, but he is the one guy who sort of plays off key. You can have one of those guys and you need to reign him in at times, but a guy who just sort of does things is needed.

[RGP1981]

Gotta be Kyrie for the Dirkie.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

we've played absolutely horrible for stretches and still somehow 3-1
only up from here (if Luka can get his legs under him)

Encouraged by the contributions from Naji and Grimes. Without Maxi the bench feels awful thin suddenly. I think Kidd has to give them BOTH roles going forward. Hardy got a quick hook tonight after a bad turnover. Dinwiddie doesn’t seem to be able to get in the lane anymore. No separation.

[WillE]

Yeah, but I don’t care what you want. I’m here to engage on my terms, not yours. What I’m talking about is obvious, and I’m not even gonna bother to read this entire post. Just don’t read my stuff if you don’t like it – I am definitely not here to offend you, but I’m also not gonna avoid stating the obvious just to spare whatever feelings these are.

I am not offended by you. And I honestly appreciate that you remain polite, even if you don't care about my opinion.
I was simply looking for evidence to your claim, cause without I cannot care about your opinion either.
Fwiw: you may have forgotten, that he didn't play in preseason at all. So maybe this should be taken into consideration before judging by only looking at a screen.

[Mike Curtis: Asked Luka Doncic about making the 32-foot dagger against the Wolves after missing his first seven 3s: “I don’t know how I make those shots and not normal shots…Just gotta get the rustiness out. I didn’t play in the whole preseason so I need some time. But we got the win."]

[fifteenth]

I have a good feeling about this one, which probably means the Mavs will lose by 30. Apologies in advance!

We forgive you

[fifteenth]

I will counter this negative vibe with “I’m going to guess he rubs some dirt on it at halftime, comes out and puts up 40 in the second half.”

I’m sure you are correct, but I want to be on the right side of history.

I mean, not that far off

[The Jom]

Missed the game but reading through the thread while I watch the replay. Impressed by the relative calm here while Ant was going ballistic early. Did find it odd that some were claiming to have watched 20 years of hoops. I mean, didn’t we all do that before turning 25? For me, that was 30 years ago.

[fifteenth]

Missed the game but reading through the thread while I watch the replay. Impressed by the relative calm here while Ant was going ballistic early. Did find it odd that some were claiming to have watched 20 years of hoops. I mean, didn’t we all do that before turning 25? For me, that was 30 years ago.

Let's see, the Mavs got started in 1980. At that time, I was 8 years old. I think I became Mav aware in 1986-1987. Let's go with 1987. 

2024 - 1987 = 37

Dang. I really should be better at talking about basketball by now.

[Scott41theMavs]

Let's see, the Mavs got started in 1980. At that time, I was 8 years old. I think I became Mav aware in 1986-1987. Let's go with 1987. 

2024 - 1987 = 37

Dang. I really should be better at talking about basketball by now.

You're a year my junior.

[The Jom]

Serious home cooking on the FTs tonight. Mavs get 6 of their 18 in the final 38 seconds as the Twolves attempt to extend the game. In the first 11:22 of the 4th, Twolves got 12 FTs to the Mavs 2. And 26 to 12 up to that point in the game.

[fifteenth]

You're a year my junior.

Big brother!!! 

Man, Scott, we've been talking about the Mavs for a long time.

[Jym]

Let's see, the Mavs got started in 1980. At that time, I was 8 years old. I think I became Mav aware in 1986-1987. Let's go with 1987. 

2024 - 1987 = 37

Dang. I really should be better at talking about basketball by now.

turns out I'm the youngin around here
I gained basketball sentience watching the Bulls in the playoffs when I was around 10 on their second 3peat

[omahen]

Always funny to go through game thread after the game. Some of you guys have very short memories. Luka had monster (in a positive way) starts to the season last two seasons, but then he was worn out due to overusage somewhere around All star break. I prefer he starts a bit rusty and then be his best self when it matters most. I wouldn't say he is out of shape, but he is obviously not his best self yet. I am fine with that.

The team is very good this season. Deep and first time I have a feeling they don't need Luka to do "everything". He is playing heavy minutes, but I think his workload is much lighter. Still shoots a lot, but doesn't need to create every offense. His shots mostly come quickly, without spending "15 seconds" to create a position. For comparison, Mavs had 90 FGA on average last season. They are at 96 this one so far. I agree some shots are tough and perhaps not necessary, but the goal is to have his best version in the playoffs. At that time Mavs will need him to make those kind of shots and if that is what it takes, I will live with it. This is why I will not judge before the season end.

Refs (at least some of them) had really taken a grudge on Luka and for sure he has some guilt to it with his complaining. It seems to me the criteria is much different for Luka than for other stars. I think he got some tough no calls last two games while (for example) Edwards was constantly at the line. Also the two technical fouls this season were very quick whistles. But, we all know this is an area of the game he needs to improve, although I can understand his frustrations.

I am a bit surprised SD basically took all Hardy minutes after the first game. We knew team was deep and getting minutes for everyone will be difficult. I think Exum will need to be awesome to get any, otherwise I could easily see him relegated to end of bench after last playoffs and his newest injury.

[Chicagojk]

makes me smile. sometimes stats don't tell the full story. If you looked at the box score and saw 5 points (on 3 shots), 9 boards and a plus 3 for the game you would have thought Lively was a bit player. He certainly was not that.



https://x.com/johnhollinger/status/1851433257134428283

[KillerLeft]

I am not offended by you. And I honestly appreciate that you remain polite, even if you don't care about my opinion.
I was simply looking for evidence to your claim, cause without I cannot care about your opinion either.
Fwiw: you may have forgotten, that he didn't play in preseason at all. So maybe this should be taken into consideration before judging by only looking at a screen.

[Mike Curtis: Asked Luka Doncic about making the 32-foot dagger against the Wolves after missing his first seven 3s: “I don’t know how I make those shots and not normal shots…Just gotta get the rustiness out. I didn’t play in the whole preseason so I need some time. But we got the win."]

That makes my point, which was about the slippery slope he's on. 

Glad you're not offended!

[Chicagojk]

Minny is in an interesting spot. No doubt they are good. They are going through some growing pains with such a big move during camp. It will take time.

Although some interesting things to monitor. One being can Conley still be a good/very good player throughout the regular season. The addition of Dante and the eventual minutes from Dillingham will help, but they need Conley to be that solid rock during the season. We have seen in the playoffs it can get a little rocky with his age. They need him in the regular season though.

Naz Reid is really good. I just don't think he can be the defender to protect the paint at 5. Mavs went at him in the playoff series all the time. Him and Randle are just begging teams to get to the rim. Reid had a nice block on Marshall but for the most part the paints opens up when he is in the game. Gobert gives you some issues as well, but they really struggle on defense when he is out.

[Chicagojk]

I saw this on redditt. Now making any kind of judgements over 4 games (with some new personnel) may be meaningless, but thought I would share.
**************************
only 4 games in, which is a small sample size, but it’s growing increasingly concerning that the defense-first identity that buoyed the team last season is completely gone. Even last year, when they started 2-2 with some awful losses to the Raptors and Hawks, through four games they were already the best defensive team in basketball.

The defense was always going to regress a little bit with the changes in personnel-- and it does seem increasingly clear now that the size/defensive prowess lost in Slow Mo and KAT was a big deal-- but even the good defensive personnel this team does still have seem to be underperforming compared to last season. Rudy has looked solid, but by the eye test, none of NAW, Ant, or Jaden have been as effective at the point of attack. Some of our lineups (thinking specifically about the Randle/Reid backcourt) are getting absolutely abused defensively and on the glass, and I suspect that is a big part in driving some of these numbers, although even the starting lineup has a defensive rating of 111.3, which would still just be 13th in the league.

It seems that the change in offensive philosophy, which I think we can all agree is a great change, has come at the expense of the defense.

Last season, they ranked:

1st in defensive rating,

1st in points allowed,

2nd in points allowed in the paint,

5th in defense rebounding,

4th in opponent second chance points,

6th in steals,

5th in blocks.

This season, through 4 games:

13th in defensive rating,

13th in points allowed,

28th (!!!!!) in points allowed in the paint,

12th in defensive rebounding,

16th in opponent second chance points,

28th in steals,

28th in blocks.

It's early. 4 games is a tiny sample size and they are adjusting to some massive changes in personnel in the last few weeks. It's also worth noting other defensively elite teams from last year, including the Celtics, Magic, and Heat, also look like they've taken a step back. But this is an absolutely striking drop in defensive performance for a team that has retained arguably their 4 most valuable defensive players and a team whose clear strength was being a defensively elite team.

These numbers will regress, I don't think it will be this bad all season. But 13th in defense with some absolutely fatal flaws in the paint-- no matter how good the offense can be (which to be clear, so far, it is just slightly above average)-- is simply not going to cut it.

[fifteenth]

I saw this on redditt.  Now making any kind of judgements over 4 games (with some new personnel)  may be  meaningless, but thought I would share.
**************************
only 4 games in, which is a small sample size, but it’s growing increasingly concerning that the defense-first identity that buoyed the team last season is completely gone. Even last year, when they started 2-2 with some awful losses to the Raptors and Hawks, through four games they were already the best defensive team in basketball.

The defense was always going to regress a little bit with the changes in personnel-- and it does seem increasingly clear now that the size/defensive prowess lost in Slow Mo and KAT was a big deal-- but even the good defensive personnel this team does still have seem to be underperforming compared to last season. Rudy has looked solid, but by the eye test, none of NAW, Ant, or Jaden have been as effective at the point of attack. Some of our lineups (thinking specifically about the Randle/Reid backcourt) are getting absolutely abused defensively and on the glass, and I suspect that is a big part in driving some of these numbers, although even the starting lineup has a defensive rating of 111.3, which would still just be 13th in the league.

It seems that the change in offensive philosophy, which I think we can all agree is a great change, has come at the expense of the defense.

Last season, they ranked:

1st in defensive rating,

1st in points allowed,

2nd in points allowed in the paint,

5th in defense rebounding,

4th in opponent second chance points,

6th in steals,

5th in blocks.

This season, through 4 games:

13th in defensive rating,

13th in points allowed,

28th (!!!!!) in points allowed in the paint,

12th in defensive rebounding,

16th in opponent second chance points,

28th in steals,

28th in blocks.

It's early. 4 games is a tiny sample size and they are adjusting to some massive changes in personnel in the last few weeks. It's also worth noting other defensively elite teams from last year, including the Celtics, Magic, and Heat, also look like they've taken a step back. But this is an absolutely striking drop in defensive performance for a team that has retained arguably their 4 most valuable defensive players and a team whose clear strength was being a defensively elite team.

These numbers will regress, I don't think it will be this bad all season. But 13th in defense with some absolutely fatal flaws in the paint-- no matter how good the offense can be (which to be clear, so far, it is just slightly above average)-- is simply not going to cut it.

Whatevs. The "tiny sample size and they are adjusting to some massive changes in personnel" that he quotes isn't just a caveat that suggests the numbers will "regress," it is a fact that says his attempt at analysis is way too early. People on the internet use math words to make it seem like they know how to do statistical analysis. 

If he knew what he was doing, he would wait until he had sufficient data to say something like "growing increasingly concerning." 

It's silly. How can this, "it’s growing increasingly concerning that the defense-first identity that buoyed the team last season is completely gone," be included in the same argument that includes " tiny sample size."

Make the alarm in your conclusion match the quality of your data. 

I was a Math teacher for a while. I give his first homework a D minus. 

Based on this tiny data sample he'll probably fail the class. 

EDIT: READ THE NEXT THE PAGE. I'M AN IDIOT. LOL, I was kind of a jerk in this post too, so confident, blasting away at some reddit user. SHM.