Who Are The 8 Players You Would Protect from An Expansion Draft?

[SleepingHero]

We know Seattle and Vegas are coming sooner than later. Last time there was an expansion draft in 2004, the Mavs managed to avoid anyone getting drafted by the then Bobcats.


So who are the 8 guys you would protect from the current roster of 15?

Luka/Exum/Dinwiddie
Kyrie/Grimes/Hardy
Klay/Marshall
PJ/Maxi/Omax/Morris (Lawson)
Lively/Gafford/Powell

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

Lively, PJ, Omax, Naji, Klay, Kyrie, Hardy, Luka. Trade Gafford for a pick and expiring before the expansion draft

Speaking of, how do they determine when rosters are frozen?

[DallasMaverick]

Dang. That’s tough.

Here are the ones I’d leave unprotected:

Dinwiddie
Exam
Kyrie
Hardy
Morris/Lawson
Maxi
Powell

Kyrie because he’s fairly old and expensive. seems unlikely to be picked as part of an expansion team.
On the other hand, if the Mavs are on the verge of giving up on OMax, I’d substitute him.

[RGP1981]

If its in the summer of 2025, protect 6 guys for sure... Luka, Kyrie, PJW, Grimes, Lively, Gafford.

Then 2 more from Klay, Naji, Hardy, O-Max... most likely Klay and Naji, since it's unlikely that the expansion teams will draft Hardy or O-Max.

[F Gump]

Part of the equation is that you don't have to protect a player whose contract is expiring. With some smart planning, it's not much of an issue.

So if it was next summer, the easy solution would be:

PROTECTED
1 Luka
2 Klay
3 Marshall
4 PJ
5 Maxi
6 Omax
7 Lively
8 Gafford

UNPROTECTED
(Lawson if not waived this summer)
Powell

NOT IN THE EQUATION
Kyrie, Exum, Dinwiddie, Grimes, Hardy, Morris

[RGP1981]

Whoever is GM/POBO of the 2 expansion teams will have a really fun job, at the start. Trying to foretell which 8 players from the other 30 teams will be protected, and how to go about building the team with their 1 pick from each of the 30 other teams.

I think Julius Randle could end up being one of the stars on one of the expansion teams. Maybe DominAyton too. Lol.

[mvossman]

Part of the equation is that you don't have to protect a player whose contract is expiring. With some smart planning, it's not much of an issue.

So if it was next summer, the easy solution would be:

PROTECTED
1 Luka
2 Klay
3 Marshall
4 PJ
5 Maxi
6 Omax
7 Lively
8 Gafford

UNPROTECTED
(Lawson if not waived this summer)
Powell

NOT IN THE EQUATION
Kyrie, Exum, Dinwiddie, Grimes, Hardy, Morris

How does that work for somebody like Grimes who would be restricted and potentially somebody you want to hold onto?

[Mavs2021]

Whoever is GM/POBO of the 2 expansion teams will have a really fun job, at the start. Trying to foretell which 8 players from the other 30 teams will be protected, and how to go about building the team with their 1 pick from each of the 30 other teams.

I think Julius Randle could end up being one of the stars on one of the expansion teams. Maybe DominAyton too. Lol.

No way they leave Randle unprotected. Unprotected is for bad contracts with negative value. Randle is on a good contract with positive value. Zach Lavine would probably be the top player on one of these teams, simply for the fact that even expansion team need to reach the salary floor.

More interesting question: Do you have to draft from other teams? Can´t you just retain full financial flexibility and chase 2-3 star free agents with your blank canvas?

[F Gump]

How does that work for somebody like Grimes who would be restricted and potentially somebody you want to hold onto?

Good question, and good point.

RFA players have a slight difference, but the expansion team can't actually get them. They CAN select them, but if they do then the player simply becomes a UFA and free to sign with anyone except the prior team. So if you want to re-sign Grimes (Hardy, too) you would have to protect him.

They have some workarounds with the RFA issue. One option would be that you don't make the player an RFA by not giving him a QO, The Mavs would end up with full Bird rights and the ability to re-sign, but the RFA advantage would be lost.

Another avenue would be to do a side trade re expansion selections, which can include agreements on who to pick, or not pick.

You do have to leave at least one player unprotected, when all is said and done.

Even though they don't get a player if they pick an RFA, the expansion team might still pick a RFA, since in general they are likely to be picking from a list of crappy players and/or bad contracts. In that situation, just having cap room (by picking the RFA) would be better than being stuck with junk. The same principle would apply to unprotected players with unguaranteed contracts.

However, figuring out how to deal with an expansion draft is not a last minute thing. They'll probably be able to position themselves and game-plan it years in advance, and then build a roster with an answer to that issue already baked in. For example, if an expansion draft was announced this year for 2026-27, the only players the Mavs already have under contract for that year would be Luka, Klay, Naji, Lively, and OMax (assuming Lawson isn't kept). The other contracts and extensions that they sign between now and then could be designed with the ED factor as part of what they do and how they do it. In 2004, the last one, the Mavs didn't have anyone picked, even though they had a lot of talent.

[ballsrchr]

I thought this would be an easy one. Just rattle off the 8 players I'd like to keep. Turns out--there's 10 of them. So I tightened my belt and dropped another. Down to 9. Then comments from F Gump, and others, on UFAs and RFAs, throw another monkey wrench in the pile.

Seems there's a lot more to building, and protecting, a team than I ever knew. My mind is spinning...

Luka
Klay
Marshall
Grimes
PJ
Omax
Lively
Gafford

Oh wait! I want to keep Hardy. Oh man...I'm crying...

[RGP1981]

More interesting question: Do you have to draft from other teams? Can´t you just retain full financial flexibility and chase 2-3 star free agents with your blank canvas?

I can't remember but I think the Hornets (Bobcats) had to pick a full roster from other teams the last time there was an Expansion Draft. The Bobcats later signed free agents and traded players they had picked once free agency started though.

Anyway, we'll have to see what rules the NBA comes up with this time, with there possibly being 2 expansion teams added instead of 1.

[Halfnir]

Protected: Luka ,Kyrie, Klay, PJ, Lively, Gafford, Grimes, Marshall
Uninteresting: Powell, Morris, Dinwiddie
You will lose one of: OMax, Hardy, Exum, Maxi

I can live with that. No way i allow anyone to grab Kyrie as many others here seem to do. With all of his issues, age and contract, he's still a borderline allstar and an exciting and marketable player and that's exactly what an expansion franchise would look for.

OMax and Hardy are nice prospects, but their current impact on the team is limited. Exum and Maxi are impactful players, but older, often injured and need to be played in very defined roles. I would assume expansion teams would grab one of OMax/Hardy and hope for upside.

[RGP1981]

This question would be really hard for teams like the Magic, lol. Which 8 do they protect?

Banchero, Franz Wagner, Suggs, Black, Isaac is 5 players... so pick 3 more from KCP, Mo Wagner, WCJ, Bitadze, Cole Anthony, Caleb Houston, Jett Howard, Tristan Da Silva.

And the OKC Thunder... Shai, Chet, Jalen, Hartenstein, Dort, Wallace is 6 players... so pick 2 from Caruso, Dieng, Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Topic, Jaylin Williams.

The Rockets maybe hope to have some of their higher salaried older guys picked... Jabari, Sengun, Green, Sheppard, Eason, Whitmore, Amen is 7 players... so they could pick 1 or none from FVV, Brooks, Adams, Landale.

[Knutsen]

We know Seattle and Vegas are coming sooner than later. Last time there was an expansion draft in 2004, the Mavs managed to avoid anyone getting drafted by the then Bobcats.


So who are the 8 guys you would protect from the current roster of 15?

Luka/Exum/Dinwiddie
Kyrie/Grimes/Hardy
Klay/Marshall
PJ/Maxi/Omax/Morris (Lawson)
Lively/Gafford/Powell

Interesting side fact is the Timberwolves would probably move to the Eastern conference - would help them in the next few years. And also us, because you get two bottom-feeding expansion teams instead of another contender.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Geographically, MIN is more West than MEM.

[Arioch]

Geographically, MIN is more West than MEM.

Yes, but they are far closer physically to the East teams in that proposed division than they are to any Western team--while Memphis and New Orleans are relatively close to the TX and Oklahoma teams.

At least part of the point of the conferences (and all the point, if there is any, of the divisions) is to keep travel times down when possible and moving MN to the East would do that most effectively.

[SkenfromLMF]

Dude I think this expansion plus the in-season tournament has the opportunity to eliminate or at least significantly diminish the conference concept...

Scheduling:
Every team plays each team twice - 62 games
Each team plays their division twice more - 6

Play in tournament pool games in 8 team pods: each with 2 division winners through 4th place from each division (the previous year) and play each other twice - 14 games.

Easy example
Pacific pod - winners from NW & Pacific, 2nd place from MW & SW; 3rd place Central & Great Lakes; 4th place from ATL & SE

Midwest Pod - 1st from MW & SW; 2nd from Central & GL; 3rd from ATL & SE; 4th from NW & Pac

Central Pod: 1st - Cent & GL; 2nd - ATL & SE; 3rd - PAC & NW; 4th - MW & SW

Atlantic Pod: 1st ATL & SE; 2nd PAC & NW; 3rd SW & MW; 4th C & GL

In-Season tournament semi-finals: 4 Pool winners - games do not count toward standings, but count as tie-breakers.


Since there are no conference games you could justify taking the top 16 teams in the league with a play in for the 13-16 slots that includes: 13, 16, 17, & 20 on one side of the bracket; 14, 15, 18, & 19 on the other.

[RGP1981]

Yes, but they are far closer physically to the East teams in that proposed division than they are to any Western team--while Memphis and New Orleans are relatively close to the TX and Oklahoma teams.

Agreed. Besides, the NBA may move the Grizzlies back to Vancouver some day.