Trade & FA 2024-25:

[KillerLeft]

If the Mavs are really looking for a guard (I'd be fine if they're not, personally), I hope they're trying to find a way to add someone like Fultz, or possibly even trade for Bogdanovich. If they're not just going to let Hardy go to work, I hope it's in the name of someone who'd actually add value.

[michaeltex]

Maybe it's schadenfreude talking here, but do the Laker seem to be flailing around a lot with their team building efforts?

[KillerLeft]

Maybe it's schadenfreude talking here, but do the Laker seem to be flailing around a lot with their team building efforts?

They sure do. It's so much fun.

[SleepingHero]

Pels Press (@PelicansPress)
According to @TheSteinLine Brandon Ingram’s Agents have been reaching out to teams trying to find someone who would pay Ingram the $210 Million dollar deal he is seeking. However, there have been no suitors arise.

[SleepingHero]

Maybe it's schadenfreude talking here, but do the Laker seem to be flailing around a lot with their team building efforts?

They are stuck frankly.

LBJ is too old to be the guy anymore (despite being amazing still). AD's health is dodgy as always. They have no impact role players and no real means to get one.

The writing has been on the wall for forever for them to rebuild and trade AD/LBJ for the last 2 years but they refuse.

[SleepingHero]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
Free agent guard Kyle Lowry has agreed to a deal to return to the Philadelphia 76ers, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.

[Chicagojk]

Why is Spencer not signed????

May be waiting on the Lakers?  I read he was at JJ press conference.  Not sure if that was accurate.  If there is a chance, may wait for LaL to move someone to open a roster spot.  He is probably going to need to take a vet minimum contract so he can afford to be patient.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

This, and possibly it's just a mater of all the guys who're worth more than the minimum being ahead of him in the pecking order. If team A misses out on guard X, they'll be interested in Dinwiddie, etc. 

Lowry, Fultz and others are still out there.

Lowry resigned with Philly on a 1 yr deal.

[KillerLeft]

Lowry resigned with Philly on a 1 yr deal.

Yep! Not long after I posted this!

[Scott41theMavs]

Pels Press (@PelicansPress)
According to @TheSteinLine Brandon Ingram’s Agents have been reaching out to teams trying to find someone who would pay Ingram the $210 Million dollar deal he is seeking. However, there have been no suitors arise.

Then it would seem that his market value is... less.

[KillerLeft]

Then it would seem that his to value is... less.

Yeah, I think Ingram's bad showing with team USA last time around really messed with his value. He basically said publicly that he doesn't understand how to play off-ball, which isn't great for a guy who's a 2nd best on a team type at best. 

If you want to confirm his falling stock, look no further than our own Mavs. In hindsight, after they signed Thompson and we found out their backup plan was Malik Beasley, it's so obvious that their main goal was not only to add shooting into the lineup, but to do it at the 3, specifically. I'm not sure if they view Ingram as a fit, but it sure does seem like he would've been getable for them, much more so than we might have thought a year ago. Seems like they're not interested, same as most teams. 

My guess is that he ends up in Atlanta or Portland. Maaaaaybe Cleveland, but I doubt it.

[SleepingHero]

Yeah, I think Ingram's bad showing with team USA last time around really messed with his value. He basically said publicly that he doesn't understand how to play off-ball, which isn't great for a guy who's a 2nd best on a team type at best. 

If you want to confirm his falling stock, look no further than our own Mavs. In hindsight, after they signed Thompson and we found out their backup plan was Malik Beasley, it's so obvious that their main goal was not only to add shooting into the lineup, but to do it at the 3, specifically. I'm not sure if they view Ingram as a fit, but it sure does seem like he would've been getable for them, much more so than we might have thought a year ago. Seems like they're not interested, same as most teams. 

My guess is that he ends up in Atlanta or Portland. Maaaaaybe Cleveland, but I doubt it.

I frankly don't see it. 

The obvious suitor to me is CLE from that list. They theoretically would benefit from a guy with Ingram's talents as the SF position is the weakest for them. They also have Mobley to replace Jarrett Allen as the 5 which might be better for CLE anyways (and I don't like the fit for Allen in NOP but that's a different thing).

Garland
Mitchell
Ingram
Niang 
Mobley

Is a versatile and balanced starting lineup. Not on the same tier as Boston or the Knicks, but I'd put them right there with PHI.

Issue is, if you're CLE and you see this 2nd apron looming, do you really want to hand Ingram a 50 mil per year contract when you have Garland at 36mil and Mitchell at 47? You don't make this trade unless you have already assured Ingram you're giving him his extension or you're risking him walking for nothing. They'd be a 2nd apron team by next year and without much ability to get under it unless they're making drastic roster changes. And that's before you add in Mobley's upcoming rookie extension he's going to sign. It feels like a desperate move that isn't even a surefire guarantee of getting better. Ingram could become the most untradeable contract.

Allen+LeVert is enough for Ingram. CLE would have enough to sign some vet mins as well to round out the roster afterwards (if they let Okoro walk for nothing). 

Would you take that risk if you're CLE?

[KillerLeft]

I frankly don't see it. 

I don't see what you don't see. Can you be more specific?

The three teams I mentioned are the ones with centers for sale (that we know of). That's what New Orleans needs. To be clear, I don't really think anyone wants Ingram, but can see Portland wanting him more than Ayton (maybe) and ATL being desperate for literally anything at this point. 

I don't think Ingram is worth Jarret Allen straight up, personally, which is why I listed them as a long shot.

[SleepingHero]

I don't see what you don't see. Can you be more specific?

The three teams I mentioned are the ones with centers for sale (that we know of). That's what New Orleans needs. To be clear, I don't really think anyone wants Ingram, but can see Portland wanting him more than Ayton (maybe) and ATL being desperate for literally anything at this point. 

I don't think Ingram is worth Jarret Allen straight up, personally, which is why I listed them as a long shot.

I was agreeing with you that the Ingram market is shallow. 

A better way for me to have written my previous post would've been "Frankly, I don't see it either."

New Orleans definitely needs a center. ATL has already passed up their chance at Ingram according to Stein with the Murray trade (where NOP wanted to expand the deal and make it Murray+Capela for Ingram+Stuff). CLE I just went through why they are most likely going to steer clear. 

POR wanting Ingram I'm even more bearish on given that they'd be paying nearly 80 mil with a Grant+Ingram SF/PF combo. And for a team that will most certainly be motivated to tank for Flagg next year, I don't see why they'd want to get better (and pay even more money!). 

If NOP is going to get a center, I don't think Ingram will be the main piece. And if he is, it might be to a team that would rather let him walk than realistically pay him any sort of extension money that he's looking for.

If Ingram sobers up, I'd put CLE in the driver seat personally.

[SleepingHero]

Per Stein:


The Los Angeles Lakers are one of only three teams at this point of the offseason, along with Boston and Cleveland, that have brought in no players from other teams via free agency or trade this offseason (H/T to my pal Keith Smith for that tidbit.)

All that adds up to make Trent-to-the-Lakers just too obvious ... right?

One source close to the process cautioned this week that the Lakers, until they can move farther away from the second luxury tax apron, can't even make a run at Trent ... no matter how available he appears to be. The Lakers, remember, are only marginally distanced from the second apron after LeBron James signed a new two-year deal that was less than $3 million shy of the $104 million maximum he could have received.

The Lakers are known to be exploring pathways to shed some additional salary via trades to create sufficient wiggle room needed under the second apron to make use of their $5.2 million taxpayer midlevel exception. Yet even those kinds of moves likely require some form of second-round draft capital attached and taking in a player via sign-and-trade, as a first apron team, is not permitted under the league's new rules.

[KillerLeft]

Per Stein:

The Lakers are known to be exploring pathways to shed some additional salary via trades to create sufficient wiggle room needed under the second apron to make use of their $5.2 million taxpayer midlevel exception. Yet even those kinds of moves likely require some form of second-round draft capital attached and taking in a player via sign-and-trade, as a first apron team, is not permitted under the league's new rules.

Those would be the same pathways to shed additional salary they explored trying to create room under the Apron for Klay Thompson, lol. They've been exploring for a while. I guess nobody wants Gave Vincent or D'angelo Russell.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Dameris has a new piece on the team in D Magazine. https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2024/07...offseason/ 

He's basically going through various statements Nico has made and showing how his vision has played out.  Here is a line I thought was interesting:

“We’re built now with our core for the next three playoffs” – June 14, 2024

Notice the date (pre the offseason acquisitions).  I'm not sure that was true when he said it or now for that matter.  There is some business to be done.  But, there is a strong young core supplemented by two aging stars who should be here for the next three playoff runs.  Here is what we have locked down beyond our three FA guards next summer in Grimes, Hardy and Exum: 

Luka      Luka     P/O
Kyrie      P/O
Klay       Klay      Klay
PJW       PJW
Lively     Lively    Lively

Naji       Naji       Naji
OMax    OMax     OMax
Maxi      Maxi
Gafford  Gafford

Luka foregoing his 26/27 PO and extending is a no brainer.

Kyrie is more interesting.  I presume he will also forego his PO for 25/26 and replace it with something with additional years.  Kyrie's willingness to take about $7mm less than his max last summer was a critical element to the flexibility required to accomplish other roster building priorities last season and this season.  It also established what is turning into a trend for 30+ second stars.   Look at Harden 2/$70 or DeRozan.  The Kings basically put $10mm of additional money in the third year of DeRozan's deal so that he's either 3/$76 or 2/$60.  

I thought what Sacramento did was clever.  I could see Kyrie doing something similar.  Add years, but do it at a discount to his $40mm number.  Teams can't just give this class of player the same money as Luka/SGA/Tatum any more and finding creative ways to make it work is critical.  We talked for months about the benefits of Kyrie taking less than his full Max and then Nico actually pulled it off.  The trick with Kyrie's extension will be getting this right again.

The next thing I notice is that PJ and Gafford will be UFA's after two more seasons. They can be extended starting next summer and running through 6/30/26. PJ's current contract slots in well with what we are seeing lots of 'good starter' types getting.  I think extending him in that range is the smart play.  Gafford might be more challenging.  He's paid really well for a back-up and Lively's big money will kick in the next summer after Gafford's UFA summer.  I could see him trying for starter money somewhere else.  I could also see us trying to save a few dollars at the backup center spot (or at the very least delaying the extension decision). 

Finally, we don't have a backup guard past next season.  We have three that will be free in Exum (UFA w/EB rights) and Grimes/Hardy (both RFA).  We also have rumors we are sniffing around players who could be our third PG.  That makes sense to me.  If your bench is Gafford, Maxi, Naji and Grimes, the thing you are missing is ball-handling.  If you look at backup guards playing with Kyrie and Klay, Grimes makes good sense.  Hardy doesn't really.  He's a self creator and threw a few nice lobs and hit his 3's in the playoffs.  But, Dallas gets crushed when he is in the game.  He's one of the few players whose numbers declined after the TDL.  The D is a negative, but the surprising thing is how bad the O is when he's playing.  It is fair to point out that he doesn't get much time with Luka, but I'm not sure where his minutes will come from when we are at full strength.  The thing is, I'm not in love with the FA point guards (Smith, Jones and Fultz).  Is any of them better than Exum?  So, I'm not in a hurry to do something just to do something.  This hole could also be filled in the 2025 draft.  

Looking forward, if you want to add someone making more than about $4mm (now) or $5mm (next summer), it probably means sending out Maxi.  They need to avoid doing things that will hard-cap them at the first apron next summer as retaining players will likely take them over the first apron.  I don't know how much longer Maxi will hold off OMax, but I'm probably not willing to trade Maxi and count on OMax in a deep playoff run quite yet.  Can Naji back up the 3 and the 4 in the playoffs?   But next summer, between expiring Maxi, the 2025 pick and S&T Hardy, you have some things to work with (even if it is just filling the backup guard role).  Yes, you could do something related to 2025, Maxi and Hardy now or at the TDL.  But the first apron ties your hands.  There is greater flexibility next summer if you can avoid hard cap issues like incoming S&T's or taking back more money than you send out.

[michaeltex]

Showing my ignorance here...

Does DAL have bird rights for PJW and Gafford?

[Chicagojk]

Go to the Bucks, young man! He is not a difference maker but would be a nice catch for a team like Denver. He would get wide open looks all year.

https://x.com/JWeinbachNBA/status/1811544183250804990

[DanSchwartzgan]

Showing my ignorance here...

Does DAL have bird rights for PJW and Gafford?

Yes.  And, I was wrong about the ability to extend them.  They signed 3 year deals.  Keith Smith doesn't list them as eligible, and I was relying on his chart rather than looking at the rules.  I'll adjust the OP.