Trade & FA 2024-25:

[Smitty]

Love your Avdija stats.

Could you enlighten those of us who weren't paying attention on how THJ/2nd is enough to get space AND Grimes?  I see no way this is enough.

* Langdon was the GM that offered Tim 4/88M in '21
* Detroit as an organization have tried to trade for Tim in '15 when he was a Knick. And again last offseason, another rumored trade centered around Tim+ for Bogdanovic.
* Detroit was also among the serious suitors in '21, per multiple reports. 
* Tim is from Michigan and his dad was an assistant coach there.
* Langdon has expressed publicly that he wants to be competitive as early as next year and has been rumored to be interested in some of the bigger names this offseason. Tim can be viewed as a vet that fits in that transition and as an expiring can be another useful piece at the TDL, if needed.
* Buddy Hield (expiring) was traded to the Sixers for Korkmaz, McDermott, '24 SRP, '29 SRP, cash considerations. NOT apples to apples comparison here, plus a TDL deal.. - but as close as one can be to find some type of "value".
* The '25 SRP (TOR) is likely to be in the pick range of 31-39. It's not just a "throw-in" SRP.
* The previous coach and GM that traded for Grimes is no longer there. Mavs have been rumored to have interest in Grimes, per several reports.

My own personal opinion isn't the same as most here... I don't think it will take a FRP "just to get rid of Tim". I think there's a lot of smoke and connections with Detroit and that they might actually view him as a positive on the court and contract wise. Neutral at worst.

[SleepingHero]

Not trying to troll here, but...

What are the scenarios if DJJ gets bought away on a "Bruce Brown" deal and THJ is removed for air?

Using Hoop Hype date, that put's payroll at ~$158.7M, if you guarantee both Exum (6/22) and Hardy (6/30). Waiving both will get you another $5.2M ($3.1M and $2.1M respectively). Either way, well below the LT of $171.3M and well below the 1st apron of $178.6M.

It also opens up more FA signing opportunities, like SnT, doesn't it?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to keep the gang together for another run, but I have an itchy feeling that DJJ is going to get a "godfather" offer he can't refuse, and not by DAL.

I'd be running to Portland to see if I can absorb Thybulle from them for free.

[SleepingHero]

Josh Mazur (@MazurFocus)
Hearing that Dorian Finney-Smith will be a name the Nets are looking to make available. Last season he averaged 8.5 points at 42.1% and 4.7 rebounds.

[mvossman]

So if we are ready to go all in on younger and better, how about we send Timmy + 25 (maybe protected) for Grimes, Send Green + 31 (unprotected) + Toronto second for Deni and re-sign DJJ. We add youth, defense, shooting and shot creation.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I think the accuracy of this analysis hinges on whether the Mavs see DJJ as the guy they want. If they want him, then DJJ's preferences come into play, and he wants to return as long as they can work out a deal -- which means he's definitely open to NT MLE (since it is the biggest offer they can possibly put on the table) and maybe less (in a 1+1 scenario).

It remains to be seen if DJJ (or anyone else) gets the so-called Bruce Brown Deal this summer -- which was essentially a one-year overpay, with a TO for another year, to turn open cap room into a playable player, who can also be trade filler. I'm sure the concept will be a frequent talking point for this player or that, but that may have been a rare confluence of factors for Indy last summer (with it being a financial transition year due to the new CBA).  I can see DJJ maybe looking to become something like that if DAL cannot (or will not) offer him full NT MLE slot, but not sure he goes chasing that. I think he truly prefers to stay.

I also think the Mavs want to build on the strong defense model they used to get as far as they did, rather than tear it down, so I don't think DJJ is as expendable as others might think. If he goes, how do you fill that hole, and even upgrade him to a same-or-better defender who also can be a better shooter? There's definitely not an answer on the existing roster, and I think it's not an easy find, especially in the Mavs price range.

How does that Bruce Brown contract look now?  I think that scenario (a career end of the rotation bench player becoming a contributor on a championship level team) has to be a buyer beware now.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

To help fix the frontcourt shooting problem, what about Duncan Robinson?  He's not the defensive stud we need at SF/PF, but he's an active defender.

THJ+SRP for Duncan works.  1 more year, $6m diff over the 2 years.

[Smitty]

So if we are ready to go all in on younger and better, how about we send Timmy + 25 (maybe protected) for Grimes, Send Green + 31 (unprotected) + Toronto second for Deni and re-sign DJJ.  We add youth, defense, shooting and shot creation.

I pretty much posted this last night. Sure, it could take more - which you added the extra FRP instead of Hardy. But you made a good point about youth...

My top somewhat realistic trade target this off-season is Deni Avdija. He’s been a Mavs target for a while.

I’m sure it’ll take Green to get it done so Green+Hardy+FRP for Deni.

Then I would do the THJ + SRP for Grimes trade I brought up weeks ago. For all the reasons I posted.

The reason I’d add Hardy to the Deni trade is both Grimes and Hardy are extension eligible next year and Rich Paul is going to want the most playing time for Hardy - what better place than the Wiz.

It also leaves the Mavs with enough room to bring back DJJ.

Luka | Exum | VetMin - DSJ/Wright/Mclaughlin/Beverley/Dinwiddie/Payne
Kyrie | Grimes | Lawson
Deni | DJJ | Omax
PJW | Maxi | Morris
Lively | Gaff | Powell

*Grimes is a career 37% 3PT shooter on 5 attempts per game. Good defender.
*Deni is a 6’9 SF with a pretty complete game. Averaged 15/7/4 this year and good defense. Also a 37% 3PT shooter.

Age

Luka 25 | Exum 28 | VetMin - DSJ/Wright/Mclaughlin/Beverley/Dinwiddie/Payne
Kyrie | Grimes 24 | Lawson 23
Deni 23 | DJJ 27 | Omax 21
PJW 25 | Maxi | Morris
Lively 20 | Gaff 25 | Powell

[Jason Terry]

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that this team and everything as it stands ran through the West while Luka was never more than 75% healthy. So many wins where we didn’t even play our best. We always want to improve, but there’s nothing wrong with how we play and the guys we have.

I don’t think it’s on the table to drastically change anything we have going on just because of the finals series result.

There’s not many names out there that improve upon Jones Jr.

It would be a good offseason if all we did was retain Jones Jr. We would still have the same ammo at the trade deadline, but have a better idea of what we need and who is expendable

We can afford to be patient. Many of the other teams out there are desperate and have far greater assets than us. Even players like Caruso and Avdija are probably out of our price range. Literally every team would want guys like that

I think this offseason is another creative one like last year. If we make a move i could see us being a 3rd/4th team involved in a big trade. Similar to the Dame trade from last year. Desperate team X trades for Superstar and has to send out good underrated player Y to make the cap math work. Mavs get involved with THJ and assets

[mvossman]

I pretty much posted this last night. Sure, it could take more - which you added the extra FRP instead of Hardy. But you made a good point about youth...



Age

Luka 25 | Exum 28 | VetMin - DSJ/Wright/Mclaughlin/Beverley/Dinwiddie/Payne
Kyrie | Grimes 24 | Lawson 23
Deni 23 | DJJ 27 | Omax 21
PJW 25 | Maxi | Morris
Lively 20 | Gaff 25 | Powell

Yeah, I think we are mostly on the same page regarding players, but I just think its going to cost more than you do.

[Winter]

I think this front office absolutely has to do something to address a rather anemic rotation. Throughout the playoffs, we occasionally got a Maxi, then maybe nobody, then Green maybe for a game, then Hardy for a couple, then nobody, ad infinitum. Even Exum was pretty weak. That's not a winning formula. There was no consistency.

They need to put some power into the rotation for next season. I can't see going into next season without addressing that.

[mvossman]

How does that Bruce Brown contract look now?  I think that scenario (a career end of the rotation bench player becoming a contributor on a championship level team) has to be a buyer beware now.

That Bruce Brown contract looked great for Indy.  They used his bloated salary and team option as salary ballast in the Siakam trade.  I have no idea why Toronto didn't flip him for assets to a team that needed salary relief (which is what Indy would have done baring a bigger trade).

That contract was (or at least should have been) a one year 22 mil contract with the understanding that he was likely going to be traded during the season.  I don't really see DJJ looking for something like that.  If he can get his number from the Mavs (which can't be more than the MLE) then I am guessing he pulls the trigger without out hunting for Brown level shenanigans.

[mvossman]

I think this front office absolutely has to do something to address a rather anemic rotation. Throughout the playoffs, we occasionally got a Maxi, then maybe nobody, then Green maybe for a game, then Hardy for a couple, then nobody, ad infinitum. Even Exum was pretty weak. That's not a winning formula. There was no consistency.

They need to put some power into the rotation for next season. I can't see going into next season without addressing that.

You are talking about a very young team that just made the finals.  I'm not sure they need to do anything other than maybe retain DJJ.  Given their limited assets, you could make a strong argument that they should simply focus on holding on to him and improve around the edges.  But that's not very fun to talk about.

[omahen]

* Langdon was the GM that offered Tim 4/88M in '21
* Detroit as an organization have tried to trade for Tim in '15 when he was a Knick. And again last offseason, another rumored trade centered around Tim+ for Bogdanovic.
* Detroit was also among the serious suitors in '21, per multiple reports. 
* Tim is from Michigan and his dad was an assistant coach there.
* Langdon has expressed publicly that he wants to be competitive as early as next year and has been rumored to be interested in some of the bigger names this offseason. Tim can be viewed as a vet that fits in that transition and as an expiring can be another useful piece at the TDL, if needed.
* Buddy Hield (expiring) was traded to the Sixers for Korkmaz, McDermott, '24 SRP, '29 SRP, cash considerations. NOT apples to apples comparison here, plus a TDL deal.. - but as close as one can be to find some type of "value".
* The '25 SRP (TOR) is likely to be in the pick range of 31-39. It's not just a "throw-in" SRP.
* The previous coach and GM that traded for Grimes is no longer there. Mavs have been rumored to have interest in Grimes, per several reports.

My own personal opinion isn't the same as most here... I don't think it will take a FRP "just to get rid of Tim". I think there's a lot of smoke and connections with Detroit and that they might actually view him as a positive on the court and contract wise. Neutral at worst.

Everyone around the league saw how bad THJ played. It will be a horrible start for Langdon if "half" of his cap space would be spent on THJ. His job would very soon be on the line, if THJ delivers same tank commanding performances. 

Even if Langdon absolutely loves THJ, he is not there to do Mavs favors. Very similar players (Trent Jr for example) will be FA, they already have Fournier,...

Sign me in a club that will buy you a couple of beers if Dallas needs to spend just one SRP to dump THJ and get Grimes back.

Edit: if Detroit really wants to become competitive next season, I don't think THJ will be even considered.

[F Gump]

You are talking about a very young team that just made the finals.  I'm not sure they need to do anything other than maybe retain DJJ.  Given their limited assets, you could make a strong argument that they should simply focus on holding on to him and improve around the edges.  But that's not very fun to talk about.

I think this makes a lot of sense.

To retain DJJ, it looks likely that it's solved by an off-loading of THJ, and if just a swap for air there's almost room for both 12.9M NT MLE and 4.7M BAE. How much would be left over for BAE would depend on the exact cap, exact Apron 1, how much DJJ gets paid, how much cushion the Mavs want to leave, whether they want to carry 15, etc, but it's certainly enough for DJJ and then some. Maybe a player would come back in that trade to fill the BAE-ish-sized slot, or maybe not.

As a side note, the emergency bailout on THJ (so that they have more space to re-sign DJJ) is a SW, if the price to swap him into cap room is exorbitant. That yields less than NT MLE, but gets the number up to maybe 9 or 10 or 11M, depending on all the factors noted above. But I have to think they will work to avoid that as their answer, with its lesser cap room and its hit on 2 more cap years.

In a trade of THJ for air, Mavs would also get a sizable TPE, for THJ's full salary (even if a BAE-sized player is coming back), which could be helpful in off-season of 2025.

If we start with that, then there's flexibility, and perhaps they roll with the same cast less THJ, and then do a tweak (or bigger) at the TDL after seeing how it all is playing out over a longer time frame..

There are reasons they might not be in a rush to do more than that. For example -- About Grimes, do the Mavs like Hardy more? About Deni, would they rather play OMax and Green? And is Deni worth the competitive price tag (assuming he's really available, which seems too easily assumed to me)? On other deals, how do you package pieces together to make the deal dollar-neutral? It's way harder than it looks.

[SleepingHero]

@DraftExpress
Rich Paul also says that there is no package deal option for LeBron and Bronny with the Suns or Lakers:

"The Lakers can draft Bronny, and LeBron doesn't re-sign. LeBron is also not going to Phoenix for a minimum deal. We can squash that now."

[ThisIStheYear]

The economics of the NBA are changing. I hate to say it, but the Mavs best option is probably to try and dump as much THJ money as possible, sign DJJ to something close to the MLE, and develop OMax and Hardy to become the two players the roster needs (an above average two way power wing and a scoring sixth man). IF (and it’s an if in big letters) that all works out, the Mavs will have a deep team with a mixture of stars and role players and a salary structure that aligns with the new CBA and even gives them more flexibility than you’ll probably see with contenders moving forward. We’ve had far worse offseasons. A big move to upgrade DJJ into a near star caliber player would be great, but I wouldn’t do anything drastic.

[Winter]

You are talking about a very young team that just made the finals.  I'm not sure they need to do anything other than maybe retain DJJ.  Given their limited assets, you could make a strong argument that they should simply focus on holding on to him and improve around the edges.  But that's not very fun to talk about.

Very young? Maxi, Green, Hardway, and Powell have all been to the playoffs. I can't see the Front Office thinking this is adequate in future playoffs. 

I'm not even stating we need to shoot for a starter. I'm saying we need to upgrade the rotation using those players mentioned (and perhaps Hardy) to create a predictable rotation piece such as we had with Hardaway early in the season.

That's really nothing that hasn't been said already.

[michaeltex]

I don't think DET is going anywhere next season.

DET only has ~$26.15M in guaranteed salaries going into the next league year, spread over only 3 contracts. They have ~$61.25M in Team Option un-guaranteed money for 8 players that they will have to act on at some point, I don't know the deadline.

That means they have to exercise TOs and sign players for ~$101M just to reach the league minimum of $126.9M. That means $39.5M in additional money is needed even if they confirm all the TOs for next year.

Plus they are paying the balance of just-fired Monty Williams $78M coaching contract for the next five years, about $13M/yr.

New GM, coaching turmoil, draft one week away. Feels like they could be available for some wheeling and dealing.

[loki]

It would be a lot easier to dump Green's salary than THJ's. A team like Detroit could actually defend absorbing a 23 year old with potential rather than a 32 year old who just played himself off the floor. The Mavs might even get a few 2nds in return.

I'd look at something like THJ + protected 25 1st for a S&T of GTJ. Start him at the same $16.2m that THJ would be making. That allows you to offer up to a $70/4 deal which is roughly the same annually as his current contract.

Then move Josh to Detroit for a few 2nds and re-sign DJJ with 95% of NT MLE. Or 100% if you sign the 58th pick to a rookie minimum contract to save on the cap hold.

[KillerLeft]

Very young? Maxi, Green, Hardway, and Powell have all been to the playoffs. 

Yes, VERY young. Kleber and Irving are both getting a little long in the tooth, that's true, but Hardaway is obviously gone, one way or another, and Powell isn't even a rotation player here, so I'm not sure why we'd bother discussing him. He's an end of bench guy now, and that's fine because he's paid like one.