Trade & FA 2023-24: PHX Wants Lebron+Bronny| Hawks to Shop Hunter

[omahen]

I still ask the question...  would Capela be on the floor the for the last 5 minutes in a playoff game?

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For most games, yes. In some situations perhaps not. In any case, he is not the all star Mavs couldn't win without. If there was a tough match-up for him, we would have other options (Maxi).

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IMO, Nurk is a much better defender than you suggest.  I'm not saying he's Mutombo, but he's certainly better than Powell and McGee.  I think he could be gotten for little and would be an upgrade.  Don't let perfection be the enemy of better.

I don't agree, when taking into consideration the Mavs roster. I think Powell works much better as defender next to Luka than Nurk would.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Since they brought the non shooting Westbrook, non shooting Capela certainly became an issue. Bringing in a better shooter (who was not a center), didn't solve their problems at all and all ended miserably. Pointing out, that Capela was not the problem. Also, lets not forget which team Houston was losing against in the playoffs - GSW in their prime with Durant.

Again, we're talking about why HOU made the move at the time, not what we can Monday morning quarterback analysis years later.

[dirkfansince1998]

I'm surprised you like Nurk.  He is not really a P&R center and he is more likely to get played off the court defensively than any of the centers we have talked about.  Thought you were bigger on mobile centers.

Still not interested in overpaid dinosaurs. Just brought him up to point out the difference in perception when it comes to Capela and other bigs. If Nurkic is a negative or neutral asset there is no way that the Mavs should offer more than a couple of 2nds for Capela.
But if the Mavs are still all in on Kidd´s 2020 Lakers pipe dream I would prefer someone like Nurkic over Capela. Most likely way cheaper. Not a pick and roll finisher but a good screener and passer. Capable of making plays out of the short roll. Also showed improved 3-point range. And as a big fan of +/- based metrics. Despite his obvious short comings when he has to defend in space he ranks among the best defensive bigs over the last 3-5 seasons.
If the options are Green/Hardy and/or the 2027st for Capela (not sure if that is the case) or a couple of 2nds for Nurkic it´s not even a question for me.

[omahen]

Again, we're talking about why HOU made the move at the time, not what we can Monday morning quarterback analysis years later.

They made the move, because they were desperate. Their problem was Westbrook, not Capella. But they had to try everything to make Westbrook work.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

They made the move, because they were desperate. Their problem was Westbrook, not Capella. But they had to try everything to make Westbrook work.

Nope.

Capela's hands of stone was the reason...

"Rockets franchise star James Harden had proven to be successful with having a center who could set screens, roll to the basket, and catch lobs over the top. The last part has proven to have extreme value and importance, as it impacted the ways in which opposing teams defended Harden."

https://spacecityscoop.com/2020/10/17/ho...nt-capela/

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Still not interested in overpaid dinosaurs. Just brought him up to point out the difference in perception when it comes to Capela and other bigs. If Nurkic is a negative or neutral asset there is no way that the Mavs should offer more than a couple of 2nds for Capela.
But if the Mavs are still all in on Kidd´s 2020 Lakers pipe dream I would prefer someone like Nurkic over Capela. Most likely way cheaper. Not a pick and roll finisher but a good screener and passer. Capable of making plays out of the short roll. Also showed improved 3-point range. And as a big fan of +/- based metrics. Despite his obvious short comings when he has to defend in space he ranks among the best defensive bigs over the last 3-5 seasons.
If the options are Green/Hardy and/or the 2027st for Capela (not sure if that is the case) or a couple of 2nds for Nurkic it´s not even a question for me.

This.  A thousand times this.

[omahen]

Still not interested in overpaid dinosaurs. Just brought him up to point out the difference in perception when it comes to Capela and other bigs. If Nurkic is a negative or neutral asset there is no way that the Mavs should offer more than a couple of 2nds for Capela.
But if the Mavs are still all in on Kidd´s 2020 Lakers pipe dream I would prefer someone like Nurkic over Capela. Most likely way cheaper. Not a pick and roll finisher but a good screener and passer. Capable of making plays out of the short roll. Also showed improved 3-point range. And as a big fan of +/- based metrics. Despite his obvious short comings when he has to defend in space he ranks among the best defensive bigs over the last 3-5 seasons.
If the options are Green/Hardy and/or the 2027st for Capela (not sure if that is the case) or a couple of 2nds for Nurkic it´s not even a question for me.

Not saying Nurk is a bad center. But he is a bad center for what Mavs need. Portland had two weak defensive star guards, just like Dallas has. Portland always had bad defense. I really don't care about any advanced stats related to Nurk, because they don't tell what is obvious - Mavs will not have good defense with him. No chance of that. Luka needs a center that can switch PnR when opponents attack him, because Luka can't fight through screens. Iztok Franko had awesome analysis about that in Luka-KP days. 

Capella might have a down year. Perhaps he is declining already at 29. But prime Capella was a totally different kind of center than Nurk. The only thing they have in common is, that neither can really shoot.

[dirkfansince1998]

Not like the Rockets small ball experiment didn´t work. For a couple of month they were unstoppable but at some point Tucker and RoCo broke down. I guess that´s where a bigger body for the regular season would have helped them.
That´s also how I view the Mavs situation. When it matters it is going to be Williams/Kleber. Not Capela, Nurkic or any other traditional big that we can come up with. Mavs don´t need a 20m per year starting big. They need someone that can play enough minutes to reduce Maxi´s load.

[omahen]

Nope.

Capela's hands of stone was the reason...

"Rockets franchise star James Harden had proven to be successful with having a center who could set screens, roll to the basket, and catch lobs over the top. The last part has proven to have extreme value and importance, as it impacted the ways in which opposing teams defended Harden."

https://spacecityscoop.com/2020/10/17/ho...nt-capela/

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This article literally doesn't say anything about Capella being the problem. It just says they traded him for RoCo and were looking to add a cheap replacement.

[dirkfansince1998]

Not saying Nurk is a bad center. But he is a bad center for what Mavs need. Portland had two weak defensive star guards, just like Dallas has. Portland always had bad defense. I really don't care about any advanced stats related to Nurk, because they don't tell what is obvious - Mavs will not have good defense with him. No chance of that. Luka needs a center that can switch PnR when opponents attack him, because Luka can't fight through screens. Iztok Franko had awesome analysis about that in Luka-KP days. 

Capella might have a down year. Perhaps he is declining already at 29. But prime Capella was a totally different kind of center than Nurk. The only thing they have in common is, that neither can really shoot.

Sorry but it´s impossible to have this discussion if you are simply dismissing the stats. Capela has the same short comings. He had his best defensive years next to legit wing defenders in Houston. Using your logic Capela can never work next to Luka or Kyrie because he didn´t work next to Trae. Hawks defense was terrible. Was that Capela´s fault? Makes no sense to blame him just like it makes no sense to blame Nurkic for Portland´s team defense.

[omahen]

Not like the Rockets small ball experiment didn´t work. For a couple of month they were unstoppable but at some point Tucker and RoCo broke down. I guess that´s where a bigger body for the regular season would have helped them.
That´s also how I view the Mavs situation. When it matters it is going to be Williams/Kleber. Not Capela, Nurkic or any other traditional big that we can come up with. Mavs don´t need a 20m per year starting big. They need someone that can play enough minutes to reduce Maxi´s load.

This was a bubble season. RoCo and Tucker had plenty of time to rest and prepare for playoffs. Houston had a short little stretch immediately after the trade where they had something like 11-6 record. But everything was already bad in the bubble. Finished regular season with 5-5, barely beat "tanking" OKC with their former teammate CP3 and than went out against Lakers with a gentlemans sweep.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Not saying Nurk is a bad center. But he is a bad center for what Mavs need. Portland had two weak defensive star guards, just like Dallas has. Portland always had bad defense. I really don't care about any advanced stats related to Nurk, because they don't tell what is obvious - Mavs will not have good defense with him. No chance of that. Luka needs a center that can switch PnR when opponents attack him, because Luka can't fight through screens. Iztok Franko had awesome analysis about that in Luka-KP days. 

Capella might have a down year. Perhaps he is declining already at 29. But prime Capella was a totally different kind of center than Nurk. The only thing they have in common is, that neither can really shoot.

Wait, are you really saying that Capela can switch on a PnR?????

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Sorry but it´s impossible to have this discussion if you are simply dismissing the stats. Capela has the same short comings. He had his best defensive years next to legit wing defenders in Houston. Using your logic Capela can never work next to Luka or Kyrie because he didn´t work next to Trae. Hawks defense was terrible. Was that Capela´s fault? Makes no sense to blame him just like it makes no sense to blame Nurkic for Portland´s team defense.

and to add to that...  Murray is a much better defender than Luka or Kyrie.

IMO, those wanting Capela are ignoring all of his obvious shortcomings, focusing on years ago.  He's in decline.  Then, any other alternative suggested like Nurk, they use perfection as the measuring stick.

Nurk is a better solution than Capela.  Nurk is a better solution than Powell/McGee.

The perfect solution would be either Zubac or J.Allen.

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This was a bubble season. RoCo and Tucker had plenty of time to rest and prepare for playoffs. Houston had a short little stretch immediately after the trade where they had something like 11-6 record. But everything was already bad in the bubble. Finished regular season with 5-5, barely beat "tanking" OKC with their former teammate CP3 and than went out against Lakers with a gentlemans sweep.

Please answer...  would Capela be on the floor the final 5 minutes of a Mavs playoff game?

[omahen]

Sorry but it´s impossible to have this discussion if you are simply dismissing the stats. Capela has the same short comings. He had his best defensive years next to legit wing defenders in Houston. Using your logic Capela can never work next to Luka or Kyrie because he didn´t work next to Trae. Hawks defense was terrible. Was that Capela´s fault? Makes no sense to blame him just like it makes no sense to blame Nurkic for Portland´s team defense.

I am dismissing the stats in this case, because:
a) with all the respect, but advanced defensive all in one stats are crap. Nurk is supposed to be 11th best defender in the league according to RAPM. 

b) we are speaking about totally different players. Capella can switch onto smaller players, at least he could in his Houston days. No way Nurkic can do that, never could.

[dirkfansince1998]

I am dismissing the stats in this case, because:
a) with all the respect, but advanced defensive all in one stats are crap. Nurk is supposed to be 11th best defender in the league according to RAPM. 

b) we are speaking about totally different players. Capella can switch onto smaller players, at least he could in his Houston days. No way Nurkic can do that, never could.

RAPM isn´t all in one crap. Regression of lineup data with selected priors to account for outliers. Why is Nurkic ranked as high. Maybe because him being on the floor was the difference between worst defense in the league and slightly below average during his stint with the Blazers. We can come up with all kinds of interpretations for stats (what I would expect in a response...explanation why his +/- numbers are as good when he isn´t as good as the numbers suggest) but it´s not possible to dismiss factual reality.

It´s funny how this works. I could continue to come up with more stats. Point out tracking data that paints the same picture. For example DFG data that not only has Nurkic as the more active defender (more contested shots) but also with a better DFG%. But it wouldn´t matter.


If you still think that Capela can defend in space you should rewatch the Celtics-Hawks series.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I am dismissing the stats in this case, because:
a) with all the respect, but advanced defensive all in one stats are crap. Nurk is supposed to be 11th best defender in the league according to RAPM. 

b) we are speaking about totally different players. Capella can switch onto smaller players, at least he could in his Houston days. No way Nurkic can do that, never could.

Wait, are you proposing we get in a time machine, go back to 2018, and trade for Capela?  Why does it matter what he did in HOU and how that compares to Nurk's career best?  I mean, if you're Jesus you can resurrect Wilt and that'll beat Capela's career best.

Listen, at some point you have to focus on getting it right, not being right.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

RAPM isn´t all in one crap. Regression of lineup data with selected priors to account for outliers. Why is Nurkic ranked as high. Maybe because him being on the floor was the difference between worst defense in the league and slightly below average during his stint with the Blazers. We can come up with all kinds of interpretations for stats (what I would expect in a response...explanation why his +/- numbers are as good when he isn´t as good as the numbers suggest) but it´s not possible to dismiss factual reality.

It´s funny how this works. I could continue to come up with more stats. Point out tracking data that paints the same picture. For example DFG data that not only has Nurkic as the more active defender (more contested shots) but also with a better DFG%. But it wouldn´t matter.


If you still think that Capela can defend in space you should rewatch the Celtics-Hawks series.

Capela was played off the court on both ends.  But let's focus on his HOU days 4 years ago, lol.

[KillerLeft]

Is Capela going to play the final 5 minutes in playoff games?

Nope. Then again, neither will Holmes or Powell. Neither would Ayton. 

I’m a fan of his, but not of spending much to get him, and that’s a big reason.

[Jym]

Nope. Then again, neither will Holmes or Powell. Neither would Ayton. 

I’m a fan of his, but not of spending much to get him, and that’s a big reason.

I'm still confused why you lump Ayton into those groups.
He's been on the court in those situations in multiple series. And I'm confident he'd close over Maxi here

[Smitty]

I'm still confused why you lump Ayton into those groups.
He's been on the court in those situations in multiple series. And I'm confident he'd close over Maxi here

If you’re paying someone 35M. They better be on the floor when it matters.

That’s why I don’t want Ayton though.

[The Jom]

The game changes last 6 mins. The refs swallow the whistle. The pressure mounts. The long game doesn’t matter, just the present. Frequent stoppages let you catch your breath. It’s really not the same thing.

Maxi is a pretty good center in those spots. Gonna be hard to find someone to make him sit. Don’t think that should be the goal.