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(06-09-2023, 12:05 PM)The Jom Wrote: Like the exercise. Disagree with the results. Potential and youth aren’t factored in (Bam), and team support isn’t factored out (Brook). Defensive ability also seems undervalued (Myles). Let me be the outcast here who thinks Ayton would be an ideal fit.
My top 10 in revised order (numbers showing original rank):
1. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:75.74
2. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:75.66
8. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:60.77
4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:62.87
3. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:70.08
17. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:54.42
9. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:59.99
28. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:46.67
6. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:61.37
22. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:50.22
Honorable mention:
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:61.08
10. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:59.8
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:57.09
15. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:54.44
16. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:54.43
18. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:53.56
24. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:48.56
25. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:48.3
26. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:48.23
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:47.96
31. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:45.34
38. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:40.51
41. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:39.93
54. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:30.74
Ya, Turner was terrible last year defensively. His reputation is coming from previous seasons. Here are the defensive rankings. Take with a grain of salt players like Koloko who started few games.
The more I slice and dice this, either Kat or Naz should be our #1 target, especially with Gobert as redundancy in MIN.
1. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:40.3
2. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:39.52
3. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:39.39
4. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:38.48
5. Brook Lopez, 35yo rating:38.22
6. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:34.58
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:34.19
8. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:34.06
9. Steven Adams, 29yo rating:33.8
10. Mike Muscala, 31yo rating:33.54
11. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:33.15
12. Santi Aldama, 22yo rating:32.89
13. Mo Bamba, 25yo rating:32.89
14. Nic Claxton, 24yo rating:32.63
15. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:32.37
16. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:32.37
17. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:30.94
18. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:30.42
19. Al Horford, 37yo rating:30.42
20. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:30.29
21. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:30.03
22. Mark Williams, 21yo rating:29.25
23. Bismack Biyombo, 30yo rating:29.25
24. Nikola Vucevic, 32yo rating:28.08
25. Ivica Zubac, 26yo rating:27.69
26. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:27.56
27. Kristaps Porzingis, 27yo rating:26.78
28. DeAndre Jordan, 34yo rating:26.78
29. JaVale McGee, 35yo rating:26.78
30. Jonas Valanciunas, 31yo rating:26.65
31. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:26.39
32. Bol Bol, 23yo rating:26.39
33. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:26.26
34. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:25.61
35. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:25.48
36. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:25.35
37. Jock Landale, 27yo rating:25.35
38. Dwight Powell, 31yo rating:24.83
39. Moritz Wagner, 26yo rating:24.31
40. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:24.05
41. Kelly Olynyk, 32yo rating:23.92
42. Jaxson Hayes, 23yo rating:23.53
43. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:22.75
44. Daniel Gafford, 24yo rating:22.49
45. Isaiah Stewart, 22yo rating:21.84
46. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:21.19
47. Mason Plumlee, 33yo rating:21.06
48. Nerlens Noel, 29yo rating:21.06
49. Drew Eubanks, 26yo rating:20.54
50. Thomas Bryant, 25yo rating:20.15
51. Udoka Azubuike, 23yo rating:20.02
52. Dario Saric, 29yo rating:19.11
53. Jericho Sims, 24yo rating:19.11
54. Day'Ron Sharpe, 21yo rating:18.72
55. Alperen Sengun, 20yo rating:18.59
56. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:15.21
57. Nick Richards, 25yo rating:14.3
58. Sandro Mamukelashvili, 24yo rating:10.79
59. Cody Zeller, 30yo rating:0.65
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(06-09-2023, 12:28 PM)Knutsen Wrote: I like the exercise as well, thanks for your effort Pavel!
One more wrinkle is the subjective fit to what the Mavs need next to Luka and (hopefully) Kyrie. In my mind that moves offensive minded centers off the list if they aren‘t named Jokic - a Sabonis or Towns, as talented as they may be, won‘t help the Mavs win in the playoffs, because they can‘t even out the weaknesses of Luka (and Kyrie). Same with „gettable“ guys like Vucevic or Wood.
For a Mavs specific ranking you could reduce the weighting of scoring, because a team led by Luka and Kyrie doesn’t need a 20+ points per game scorer anywhere.
Good analogy is the Nuggets roster around Jokic and Murray, who are much better offensive than defensive players, as the two best players of the probably best team in the league. As I wrote in an earlier post we need the Aaron Gordons, KCPs and Browns/Brauns surrounding Luka and Kyrie. That’s why I agree with your list that Adebayo and Jackson Jr. would be our 3rd and 4th best options, Jom.
Where‘s our Tyson Chandler 2.0 to be found?
I made a "Mavs Rating", taking out Scoring and Distribution. So it's just Rebounding, Defense, and Availability. Here are the results. IMO, top targets in bold
1. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:50.94
2. Brook Lopez, 35yo rating:50.41
3. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:49.99
4. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:49.69
5. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:49.67
6. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:49.16
7. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:48.69
8. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:48.5
9. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:47.54
10. Nic Claxton, 24yo rating:47.42
11. Steven Adams, 29yo rating:47.35
12. Nikola Vucevic, 32yo rating:46.64
13. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:46.44
14. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:43.41
15. Ivica Zubac, 26yo rating:43.4
16. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:43.05
17. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:42.85
18. Jonas Valanciunas, 31yo rating:42.84
19. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:42.79
20. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:42.27
21. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:42.13
22. Al Horford, 37yo rating:40.61
23. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:40.02
24. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:39.94
25. Kristaps Porzingis, 27yo rating:39.62
26. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:39.27
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:38.23
28. Mark Williams, 21yo rating:37.94
29. Santi Aldama, 22yo rating:37.83
30. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:37.82
31. Mike Muscala, 31yo rating:36.88
32. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:36.61
33. Mo Bamba, 25yo rating:36
34. DeAndre Jordan, 34yo rating:34.91
35. Mason Plumlee, 33yo rating:34.54
36. Bismack Biyombo, 30yo rating:34.4
37. Kelly Olynyk, 32yo rating:34.3
38. Bol Bol, 23yo rating:33.98
39. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:33.04
40. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:32.49
41. Alperen Sengun, 20yo rating:32.48
42. Isaiah Stewart, 22yo rating:31.79
43. Dwight Powell, 31yo rating:31.56
44. Daniel Gafford, 24yo rating:30.44
45. Moritz Wagner, 26yo rating:29.66
46. JaVale McGee, 35yo rating:28.75
47. Thomas Bryant, 25yo rating:28.25
48. Day'Ron Sharpe, 21yo rating:27.79
49. Jock Landale, 27yo rating:27.27
50. Drew Eubanks, 26yo rating:27.15
51. Jaxson Hayes, 23yo rating:26.82
52. Udoka Azubuike, 23yo rating:24.37
53. Nick Richards, 25yo rating:24.14
54. Jericho Sims, 24yo rating:24.02
55. Nerlens Noel, 29yo rating:23.08
56. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:22.69
57. Dario Saric, 29yo rating:22.47
58. Sandro Mamukelashvili, 24yo rating:15.52
59. Cody Zeller, 30yo rating:4.73
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How about Zubac? IMO, he's more what we need than Ayton.
DAL - Zubac, Batum, Payne
PHX - Maxi, Mann, Bertans S/W
LAC - Ayton
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06-09-2023, 01:00 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2023, 01:01 PM by Ghost of Podkolzin.)
MIN has Naz Reid's Bird rights. What kind of package would you give up for him in a S&T. I don't know if it could be done under the CBA, but Wood would be great in that frontcourt.
(06-09-2023, 12:53 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: https://medium.com/mavsforum/analyzing-a...93162e31eb
Latest trade idea so good even F Gump will love it!
Boy, is that bad!
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The problem with the Mavs is Cuban. Since the title in 2011 he has been on a mission to bring in the biggest names in the NBA so that "HIS" Mavs are the "cool" franchise. Meanwhile, teams like Denver have just focused on getting better talent by all means necessary. Including this crazy thing called the draft. Granted, the Mavs have been getting some gems in the draft as of late. But, I have a feeling Cuban would trade Hardy and Green in a heartbeat for a year or two with 39 year old LeBron.
That's just not a winning strategy. The teams built in that manner also aren't sustainable. With smart team building Luka could have a team like the Nuggets have built around Jokic.
Legler: "If Luka wins this year, against a healthy Celtics team, at his age, the league is in trouble."
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06-09-2023, 02:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2023, 02:33 PM by ItsGoTime.)
(06-09-2023, 12:28 PM)Knutsen Wrote: Where‘s our Tyson Chandler 2.0 to be found? TC is a comp for Lively somewhere I was reading a while back. That’s what really turned me on to him. Looks like he might be TC with a shot too. If that was the case, please get him!
That trade back to get Capela looks awesome if Lively turns into TC and then we have Haywood (Capela) to back him up.
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(06-09-2023, 11:18 AM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: OK, fixed my model. This is the top 59 centers rated by their production as a starter in 2022/23. It is comprised of advanced stats weighted in importance for a center in the following categories: Scoring, Rebounding, Distribution, and Availability.
Don’t let the following comments lead you to believe I don’t appreciate the effort. It is a fun and interesting exercise. There is a bit of irony here as people have posted and snarked and screamed at me for months about 18/10 with efficient shooting as it relates to how great Wood is and how Kidd is screwing him. Yet, here we are with an 18/10 guy with efficient shooting…AND…MUCH BETTER DEFENSE, and he is somewhere between 17th and 26th depending on which of your posts I go by.
It would probably help give this more credibility if you showed your math. Then we could have a healthy conversation about why there aren’t any defensive metrics. Which defensive metric(s). Why no on-court metrics. What exactly is meant by distribution and availability? What about free throw shooting. Are you using FG% or TS% or EFG% or what for your shooting metric. How are you weighting things. I think you want everyone on an even footing and then you can add a factor for age or salary or availability (Jokic will obviously be #1, but then you can give him a -50 for availability and take him out of consideration for this conversation).
Point of all of this being I can probably model this to prove whatever I want to. Maybe we could agree on the model first and then debate the outcomes.
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06-09-2023, 03:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2023, 03:27 PM by Ghost of Podkolzin.)
(06-09-2023, 02:36 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Don’t let the following comments lead you to believe I don’t appreciate the effort. It is a fun and interesting exercise. There is a bit of irony here as people have posted and snarked and screamed at me for months about 18/10 with efficient shooting as it relates to how great Wood is and how Kidd is screwing him. Yet, here we are with an 18/10 guy with efficient shooting…AND…MUCH BETTER DEFENSE, and he is somewhere between 17th and 26th depending on which of your posts I go by.
It would probably help give this more credibility if you showed your math. Then we could have a healthy conversation about why there aren’t any defensive metrics. Which defensive metric(s). Why no on-court metrics. What exactly is meant by distribution and availability? What about free throw shooting. Are you using FG% or TS% or EFG% or what for your shooting metric. How are you weighting things. I think you want everyone on an even footing and then you can add a factor for age or salary or availability (Jokic will obviously be #1, but then you can give him a -50 for availability and take him out of consideration for this conversation).
Point of all of this being I can probably model this to prove whatever I want to. Maybe we could agree on the model first and then debate the outcomes.
Regarding the different posts, I've simply pulled out the weighted categories to highlight specialties. The first is overall center. Second is defense only. Third is Mavs Need (Rebounding, Defense, and Availability).
You and I agree 100% on Wood. Are you talking about Ayton as the 18/10 guy? If so, I've repeatedly posted he's a $20m/year player making $40m of his 3yr contract dead money/overpay. PHX is going to have to waive off $10m-$15m next year in contract to move Ayton. That's why I've said if we're getting Ayton, they're taking on Bertans and will get back value in a package like THJ and Bullock.
Why show my math when I can sell it to a franchise or get a GM job like Hollinger did
Seriously tho, I'm still working on it and tweaking it. Sure you can manipulate weights and multipliers to prove a point, and sure defense is the toughest to measure. Stats like blocks and steals could show a lazy defender who gambles a lot (steals in passing lanes or blocks help side leaving their assignment), or show an all-world defender. In some ways defense is like pornography... you know it when you see it. That's why I love to hear from players who they think are the best defenders. Today's defensive game with switching makes the measurables SO difficult.
The thing I will say for my model tho, is that IMO there's little argument that the overall nails the first 4 in order: Jokic, Embid, AD, JJJ... all bringing very diverse attributes to the position.
You also have dynamics like teammates and schemes. An all-world defender on a D'Antony team is easy to measure (e.g. The Matrix in PHX) while you have to question how good Middleton is when he is playing with Lopez, the Freak, and Jrue.
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(06-09-2023, 02:32 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: TC is a comp for Lively somewhere I was reading a while back. That’s what really turned me on to him. Looks like he might be TC with a shot too. If that was the case, please get him!
That trade back to get Capela looks awesome if Lively turns into TC and then we have Haywood (Capela) to back him up.
At 7' and 240lbs of muscle TC was really before his time physically. Could you imagine his growing up in today's game, adding an outside shot and ball handling from pee-wee bball on?
That's how I look at the old greats. I laughed when Shaq said he could have been a point center, but then think about it. He really had the raw ability; those skills were just never developed.
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Shaq rant point in the Texas High School All-Star game in 89 - 90. 18 yr old Shaq was a physical specimen. He needed some mass to play at the NBA level, but his foundation meant it didn't matter if it was good weight or bad.
We know Shaq was not the most disciplined off-season player, but he was a GREAT player who got by purely on physical giftedness. He might have played 25 years IF he had the drive/work ethic of a Kobe/Dirk/Jordan
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06-09-2023, 03:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2023, 04:01 PM by ItsGoTime.)
(06-09-2023, 03:36 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: At 7' and 240lbs of muscle TC was really before his time physically. Could you imagine his growing up in today's game, adding an outside shot and ball handling from pee-wee bball on?
That's how I look at the old greats. I laughed when Shaq said he could have been a point center, but then think about it. He really had the raw ability; those skills were just never developed. Absolutely. If Lively turns out to be that, we will rue the day we passed on him!
Unless we get Black.
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Black’s shot just looks so busted to me. He’s one I’m hoping goes ahead of us. Love his court vision but not sure he really fits with Kyrie and Luka.
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(06-09-2023, 02:02 PM)audiosway Wrote: The problem with the Mavs is Cuban. Since the title in 2011 he has been on a mission to bring in the biggest names in the NBA so that "HIS" Mavs are the "cool" franchise. Meanwhile, teams like Denver have just focused on getting better talent by all means necessary. Including this crazy thing called the draft. Granted, the Mavs have been getting some gems in the draft as of late. But, I have a feeling Cuban would trade Hardy and Green in a heartbeat for a year or two with 39 year old LeBron.
That's just not a winning strategy. The teams built in that manner also aren't sustainable. With smart team building Luka could have a team like the Nuggets have built around Jokic.
I remember when they traded young, athletic Devin Harris for washed-up, slow Jason Kidd.
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(06-09-2023, 03:59 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Absolutely. If Lively turns out to be that, we will rue the day we passed on him!
Unless we get Black.
Breaking news:
We will all absolutely regret passing on multiple players this year. Also every other fan, and every other NBA team.
Those of us who are prone to regret and covetousness will pine away, and come here to post about what a rotten job Nico has done, or Cuban has done. It's the way of fandom.
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(06-09-2023, 10:39 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: Breaking news:
We will all absolutely regret passing on multiple players this year. Also every other fan, and every other NBA team.
Those of us who are prone to regret and covetousness will pine away, and come here to post about what a rotten job Nico has done, or Cuban has done. It's the way of fandom.
It's not like there's a mountain of previous evidence to that reality already that would be further contributed to by whiffing on a pick. Not at all.
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Rookies can’t contribute in the playoffs
Braun
Can’t expect much out of picks in the 20’s
Braun
Can’t have vet min players part of a playoff rotation
Jeff Green
Can’t find playoff starters for the MLE
Brown
Players that can’t shoot we should avoid
Brown
2nd round picks don’t matter
Jokic
Not to mention all the UDFA’s and two-way guys on Miami
We must find the quality players on the cheap. And just look at the latest move of Denver. All the smart teams will be building through the draft and with other cheap players once they get their max slots filled. No excuse for the Mavs to not start doing this
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06-10-2023, 08:52 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2023, 09:00 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
The NBA Front Office podcast yesterday spent a fairly long time discussing Christian Wood. It was in response to a question, but kind of random for them to spend that much time on a player of his stature.
They see two paths for Wood. non-TP MLE or a Mav’s S&T in the low teens. They talked about this last year in Dallas. Wood’s fault or Kidd’s fault? A little of both was the political answer. Wood didn’t adapt well to coming off the bench. But, Kidd never figured out how to use him either. They don’t think he’s a four.
Finding a place for him is difficult because he’s not a good defender and most teams want their center to defend well. Does any of this sound familiar? When pressed for a landing spot, two names came up…Philly as offensive depth (which makes sense to me if they played him next to Paul Reed when Embiid sits). The other spot was Phoenix…especially if Ayton is moved. They also commented about a Ramona Shelburne report about Harden ending up in Phoenix. Not sure how Harden gets to Phoenix in a S&T without Ayton either gone or outgoing. This led to a CP3 discussion and they didn’t connect the dots back to Wood, but they thought that if Ramona was talking Harden to Phoenix, it might be worth paying attention to.
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(06-10-2023, 08:52 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The NBA Front Office podcast yesterday spent a fairly long time discussing Christian Wood. It was in response to a question, but kind of random for them to spend that much time on a player of his stature.
They see two paths for Wood. non-TP MLE or a Mav’s S&T in the low teens. They talked about this last year in Dallas. Wood’s fault or Kidd’s fault? A little of both was the political answer. Wood didn’t adapt well to coming off the bench. But, Kidd never figured out how to use him either. They don’t think he’s a four.
Finding a place for him is difficult because he’s not a good defender and most teams want their center to defend well. Does any of this sound familiar? When pressed for a landing spot, two names came up…Philly as offensive depth (which makes sense to me if they played him next to Paul Reed when Embiid sits). The other spot was Phoenix…especially if Ayton is moved. They also commented about a Ramona Shelburne report about Harden ending up in Phoenix. Not sure how Harden gets to Phoenix in a S&T without Ayton either gone or outgoing. This led to a CP3 discussion and they didn’t connect the dots back to Wood, but they thought that if Ramona was talking Harden to Phoenix, it might be worth paying attention to.
One of my favorites for MLE Money this year, depending on what else we do, is Naz Reid. I saw an article by Jake Fischer saying he was a target for the Suns last year. What happens if he is over an MLE guy at around 15-17 per year. Tough for Minnesota to justify that money with their current roster.
So question, any way to give Naz Reid with Hardaway to PhX and Dallas gets Ayton. Minnesota gets Maxi and ????. Anyway for that to work without giving up #10 or our young players that would help Minny out??? Maxi and Wood seem like too many big guys for them. Also not sure how you would make that trade legal.
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(06-10-2023, 09:44 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: One of my favorites for MLE Money this year, depending on what else we do, is Naz Reid. I saw an article by Jake Fischer saying he was a target for the Suns last year. What happens if he is over an MLE guy at around 15-17 per year. Tough for Minnesota to justify that money with their current roster.
So question, any way to give Naz Reid with Hardaway to PhX and Dallas gets Ayton. Minnesota gets Maxi and ????. Anyway for that to work without giving up #10 or our young players that would help Minny out??? Maxi and Wood seem like too many big guys for them. Also not sure how you would make that trade legal.
The thing with teams like Phoenix is it is hard to make S&T’s work.
Back to the Shelburne report, the way that could happen is Harden opting in to his PO (he can be extended later) so that he’s not a S&T. It isn’t too hard to come up with a June trade involving CP3 to Philly, Harden and some Mav players (but not Wood) to Phoenix and Ayton to Dallas.
Why would Philly do it? CP3 and Tobias would come off the books next summer and they could be players in the FA market. The trick there is convincing Maxey to wait until next summer to sign his max contract.
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