Trade & FA 2023-24: 76ers Believe They Have A Shot at PG13

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Hollinger top 25 free agent BORDS rankings.  His numbers are off on projections I remember from last year but this is from his data.  Kyrie was at 59 million and #1 on his list.

22. Christian Wood, C, 27, Dallas: $17,289,331

Well, that was an interesting ride. The Mavs steadily soured on Wood despite substantial production, partly because of his defense at the five and partly because everything got weird in Dallas during the second half of the season.

Wood is caught somewhat between positions at 6-10, 214 pounds, and might function best as a third big man who can flex between power forward and center. At either spot, he is a huge force offensively, with 3-point range, the ability to attack off the dribble and enough pop to be a lob threat as a rim runner. The other use for him, however, is just as a starting center, especially if he’s paired with a bully four who can crossmatch with him at times.

Wood’s other calling card is that he’s the best big who is clearly available, with the other centers on this list likely returning to their own teams. He should be the first call for any team in need of offensive firepower at the center spot.

---

1. Kyrie Irving, PG, 31, Dallas: $50,555,884

There is a lot more that goes into having Irving on your team than BORD$ is able to process, which is why sentient beings may put a lower value on Irving than my computer formula does. Between injuries, insolence and inoculations (or lack thereof), Irving hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season in four years; he’s only had three seasons in his 12 as a pro that would make him award-eligible (more than 65 games). (Odd fact: When Irving did play, he led the league in minutes per game.)

On the other hand, he’s also an offensive whirlwind who averaged 27 points a game on 63.4 percent true shooting in 20 games as a Maverick last season. Irving’s BORD$ pegs him being worth more than his $46.5 million max for the coming season, but the two more pressing questions are whether the collateral locker room damage is worth it, and whether he can continue to stay this productive on a deal that pushes into his mid-30s.

Given how many teams lack either the cap space to sign Irving or the willingness to put up with him, Dallas may be able to push back and offer him something short of his four-year, $210 million max (let alone the five-year version for $272 million).

Dallas could also go longer on years and shorter on money, which would be appealing from managing its luxury-tax situation. The Mavs are $48 million from the projected tax line before paying Irving a cent and would still have five open roster spots to fill after signing Irving.

As for the Lakers, L.A. can’t get anywhere close to Irving’s max in any realistic cap room scenario. A sign-and-trade, however, would get kind of wacky but is theoretically possible. The Lakers would need to pick up Mo Bamba’s guarantee, guarantee Shaq Harrison’s deal, pick up Malik Beasley’s option and sign their first-round pick (17th). After a month, they could trade the pick along with Bamba, Beasley, Harrison and Max Christie and pay Irving up to $43 million for the first season of a four-year deal totaling $187 million.

There are other permutations, such as including D’Angelo Russell or Rui Hachimura in a sign-and-trade. Sign-and-trading one of Wenyen Gabriel, Troy Brown or Tristan Thompson could also bump up Irving’s first-year salary another $1.5 million or so. (I also am presuming the Lakers would have to throw another pick into this, but it has no cap implications.)

However, a sign-and-trade would also hard cap the Lakers, who would have only four players under contract, need to sign at least 10 more and have only about $40 million to pull it off — including re-signing Austin Reaves and Hachimura. For that reason, the lower Irving’s first-year salary is at the end of the deal, the more plausible a sign-and-trade is from L.A.’s end … but the less plausible it is for Irving.

Ha!  I predicted Wood will sign for $18m/year.  For some reason, fans here have soured on him like they're Kidd's roommate or something.  20/10 big with 39%3pt is valuable in this league.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ha!  I predicted Wood will sign for $18m/year.  For some reason, fans here have soured on him like they're Kidd's roommate or something.  20/10 big with 39%3pt is valuable in this league.

This would be fantastic news if true.  Dallas would have another asset to work with whether it be a TE from sending Wood to a cap room team if a S&T could be worked out or a trade spread on his outgoing value to bring in a player through trade.

The problem with this is it is theoretical.  If the question is “should an 18/10 guy who shoots efficiently from multiple levels make $18mm?”, the theoretical answer is yes.  Maybe you add in “well, he doesn’t play good D and he’s kind of a tweener big (not big/strong enough to shut down the paint and not quick enough to thrive defensively on the perimeter), then you start to ding that value a bit.  But, the real issue is identifying the team that will pay that for an offensively gifted tweener big who isn’t good defensively at either position.  If you can’t identify the team that wants that, it matters not a bit what BORD$ has to say.

[dirkfansince1998]

Ha!  I predicted Wood will sign for $18m/year.  For some reason, fans here have soured on him like they're Kidd's roommate or something.  20/10 big with 39%3pt is valuable in this league.

https://twitter.com/TheHoopCentral/statu...wcon%5Es1_

Track record of his tool is beyond bad when it comes to bigs.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'll go ahead and remove Randle and Markkanen cause they're PFs.

Looking at that list, unless they are old (Lopez/Vucevic) or have injury concearns (Porzingis, Williams III), all of them have higher value than Ayton. We're going for Ayton cause he's a distressed asset that probably needs a fresh start.

I'll be ok if we have our new center for a drop down in the draft (no further then say #21) or for expirings, which leaves:

Nurkic, Capela, Ayton as the ones I could see available for that price.

If we want a better piece than that, we probably would have to include #10 and get no pick in return (maybe a second?), which I'd be against.

This is good perspective.  I’d probably put Ayton over KAT also, but I don’t like KAT.

I think we all need to ask ourselves “what outcome is it most likely that Dan will be defending and 1/3 of the board lose their minds over”?  Right now, the player that comes closest to that is Ayton (though there is a price at which I'm not interested either).

[DallasMaverick]

I know it does not seem likely, but I´d approve of a Ayton/CP3 package for two reasons. I think Ayton is underrated at this point and $30M is close to fair value for 20/10 center at the age of 25. #2 I think CP3 would be a great mentor for Luka., just like I thought Westbrook would be. Both hold themselves to high standards and they´d show Luka what it takes to be mentally and physically 100% prepared for a season and a game. Both have the natural authority and confidence to call out Luka and unlike laid back Dirk (who is a leader by example) they´d probably be in his face. So even if CP3, the on court player has very limited value imho, he does have locker room value.

Don't they have Pinson for that?

[BigDirk41]

This is good perspective.  I’d probably put Ayton over KAT also, but I don’t like KAT.

I think we all need to ask ourselves “what outcome is it most likely that Dan will be defending and 1/3 of the board lose their minds over”?  Right now, the player that comes closest to that is Ayton (though there is a price at which I'm not interested either).

You don't like KAT "The greatest shooting big man of all time" according to himself only?

---

I don't like KAT just because of that comment. It's beyond insulting to Dirk.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/1053ss/status/166694...98081?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

[dirkfansince1998]

https://twitter.com/1053ss/status/166694...98081?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

Dallas really is one big retirement home.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

This is good perspective.  I’d probably put Ayton over KAT also, but I don’t like KAT.

I think we all need to ask ourselves “what outcome is it most likely that Dan will be defending and 1/3 of the board lose their minds over”?  Right now, the player that comes closest to that is Ayton (though there is a price at which I'm not interested either).

Regardless of how you look at it, according to 2022/23 performance, Ayton is at best the 14th-15th center.  That's not worth $104m/3yrs.  Distressed asset.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I’d rather have someone like Drew Eubanks at the BAE (assuming we can be under the apron) rather than Ayton at nearly 30m more per season, who will cost us an asset or two any way you slice it. Assuming that can be done by s/w Bertans and giving Kyrie the “Luka Max.”

[ItsGoTime]

(though there is a price at which I'm not interested either).

Does that price’s name start with a G and end with a reenandPowell? Hehe, we all have our favorites!

[DallasMaverick]

Regardless of how you look at it, according to 2022/23 performance, Ayton is at best the 14th-15th center.  That's not worth $104m/3yrs.  Distressed asset.

In the old days, I'd be very interested in a player like Ayton.  Or Ben Simmons.  Or John Collins. Or Tobias Harris.  Guys who could become serviceable parts of a good team, maybe even a championship team, but had contracts significantly bigger than their performance.

But, what the new CBA is teaching us is that there is no room on a championship roster for underperforming contracts.

Maybe we'd be tempted to exchange some of our negative-value contracts (Bertans, McGee, maybe THJ? Or Bullock?) for other teams' negative contracts.  But Ayton's contract is REALLY negative, IMO, and hangs around on your books for a long time.

[Scott41theMavs]

In the old days, I'd be very interested in a player like Ayton.  Or Ben Simmons.  Or John Collins. Or Tobias Harris.  Guys who could become serviceable parts of a good team, maybe even a championship team, but had contracts significantly bigger than their performance.

But, what the new CBA is teaching us is that there is no room on a championship roster for underperforming contracts.

Maybe we'd be tempted to exchange some of our negative-value contracts (Bertans, McGee, maybe THJ? Or Bullock?) for other teams' negative contracts.  But Ayton's contract is REALLY negative, IMO, and hangs around on your books for a long time.

If you're thinking this way, AND you're Cuban's burner account, this post rules.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

OK, fixed my model. This is the top 59 centers rated by their production as a starter in 2022/23. It is comprised of advanced stats weighted in importance for a center in the following categories: Scoring, Rebounding, Distribution, and Availability.

Things of Note re Mavs and Trade Talks:
-Naz Reid looks fantastic at 15th and 23yo
-Lopez is 5th
-Allen is 10th
-Ayton is 17th
-Turner is 22nd
-Capella is 26th
-Powell is 46th
-McGee is 52nd

1. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:75.74
2. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:75.66
3. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:70.08
4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:62.87
5. Brook Lopez, 35yo rating:61.83
6. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:61.37
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:61.08
8. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:60.77
9. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:59.99
10. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:59.8
11. Nikola Vucevic, 32yo rating:59.07
12. Nic Claxton, 24yo rating:57.3
13. Kristaps Porzingis, 27yo rating:57.28
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:57.09
15. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:54.44
16. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:54.43
17. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:54.42
18. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:53.56
19. Steven Adams, 29yo rating:53.25
20. Jonas Valanciunas, 31yo rating:52.71
21. Ivica Zubac, 26yo rating:51.37
22. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:50.22
23. Al Horford, 37yo rating:48.65
24. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:48.56
25. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:48.3
26. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:48.23
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:47.96
28. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:46.67
29. Mike Muscala, 31yo rating:46.22
30. Mark Williams, 21yo rating:46.05
31. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:45.34
32. Santi Aldama, 22yo rating:45.25
33. Mason Plumlee, 33yo rating:45.12
34. Kelly Olynyk, 32yo rating:45.07
35. Mo Bamba, 25yo rating:44.51
36. Alperen Sengun, 20yo rating:43.81
37. Bol Bol, 23yo rating:42.86
38. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:40.51
39. DeAndre Jordan, 34yo rating:40.32
40. Moritz Wagner, 26yo rating:40
41. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:39.93
42. Isaiah Stewart, 22yo rating:39.57
43. Daniel Gafford, 24yo rating:39.53
44. Thomas Bryant, 25yo rating:39.15
45. Bismack Biyombo, 30yo rating:39.11
46. Dwight Powell, 31yo rating:37.17
47. Jock Landale, 27yo rating:35.25
48. Jaxson Hayes, 23yo rating:34.98
49. Day'Ron Sharpe, 21yo rating:34.6
50. Drew Eubanks, 26yo rating:33.53
51. Nick Richards, 25yo rating:32.87
52. JaVale McGee, 35yo rating:31.82
53. Udoka Azubuike, 23yo rating:31.72
54. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:30.74
55. Dario Saric, 29yo rating:29.91
56. Jericho Sims, 24yo rating:27.53
57. Sandro Mamukelashvili, 24yo rating:26.29
58. Nerlens Noel, 29yo rating:24.84
59. Cody Zeller, 30yo rating:19.18

[Chicagojk]

Denver is more active than the Mavs are and they are in the finals still. ha

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1667189384162975744

[JamesConway912]

Denver is more active than the Mavs are and they are in the finals still.  ha

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1667189384162975744

That tells you all you need to know about the logic (or lack thereof) of the whole „draft picks are for rebuilding teams“-nonsense that the Mavs are feeding us through their local media guys.

Spurs traded prime George Gill for the 1st round pick that landed them Kawhi. If you apply the Mavs‘ lazy outdated stance on draft picks you’d be caught in a roster full of Hardaways, Bertans and McGees for another couple of years.

Oh wait we are…

[The Jom]

Like the exercise. Disagree with the results. Potential and youth aren’t factored in (Bam), and team support isn’t factored out (Brook). Defensive ability also seems undervalued (Myles). Let me be the outcast here who thinks Ayton would be an ideal fit.

My top 10 in revised order (numbers showing original rank):

1. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:75.74

2. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:75.66

8. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:60.77

4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:62.87

3. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:70.08

17. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:54.42

9. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:59.99

28. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:46.67

6. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:61.37

22. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:50.22



Honorable mention:
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:61.08
10. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:59.8
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:57.09
15. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:54.44
16. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:54.43
18. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:53.56
24. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:48.56
25. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:48.3
26. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:48.23
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:47.96
31. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:45.34
38. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:40.51
41. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:39.93
54. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:30.74

[JamesConway912]

In the old days, I'd be very interested in a player like Ayton.  Or Ben Simmons.  Or John Collins. Or Tobias Harris.  Guys who could become serviceable parts of a good team, maybe even a championship team, but had contracts significantly bigger than their performance.

But, what the new CBA is teaching us is that there is no room on a championship roster for underperforming contracts.

Maybe we'd be tempted to exchange some of our negative-value contracts (Bertans, McGee, maybe THJ? Or Bullock?) for other teams' negative contracts.  But Ayton's contract is REALLY negative, IMO, and hangs around on your books for a long time.

Even before the new CBA guys like Harris, Simmons and Collins would have actually been improvements over the even more horrendous contracts the Mavs have given out/traded for over the years.

The biggest issue is the competitive disadvantage we had and still have at the decision maker positions in the organization. Just way too much incompetence all around, especially with Cuban who is obviously way in over his head attempting to compete with the other organizations‘ highly professional front offices.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Like the exercise. Disagree with the results. Potential and youth aren’t factored in (Bam), and team support isn’t factored out (Brook). Defensive ability also seems undervalued (Myles). Let me be the outcast here who thinks Ayton would be an ideal fit.

My top 10 in revised order (numbers showing original rank):

1. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:75.74

2. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:75.66

8. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:60.77

4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:62.87

3. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:70.08

17. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:54.42

9. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:59.99

28. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:46.67

6. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:61.37

22. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:50.22



Honorable mention:
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:61.08
10. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:59.8
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:57.09
15. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:54.44
16. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:54.43
18. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:53.56
24. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:48.56
25. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:48.3
26. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:48.23
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:47.96
31. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:45.34
38. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:40.51
41. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:39.93
54. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:30.74

Nope.  Tough to statistically predict potential.  Completely subjective.  That's why I state it's based upon production...  starting production, which is going to negate players like Sharpe.  However, it makes young players like Reid stick out exceptionally well.  

Turner is no way near top 10.  Ditto with Kessler, but I know you're applying potential.

[Knutsen]

Like the exercise. Disagree with the results. Potential and youth aren’t factored in (Bam), and team support isn’t factored out (Brook). Defensive ability also seems undervalued (Myles). Let me be the outcast here who thinks Ayton would be an ideal fit.

My top 10 in revised order (numbers showing original rank):

1. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:75.74

2. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:75.66

8. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:60.77

4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:62.87

3. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:70.08

17. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:54.42

9. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:59.99

28. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:46.67

6. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:61.37

22. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:50.22



Honorable mention:
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:61.08
10. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:59.8
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:57.09
15. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:54.44
16. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:54.43
18. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:53.56
24. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:48.56
25. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:48.3
26. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:48.23
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:47.96
31. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:45.34
38. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:40.51
41. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:39.93
54. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:30.74

I like the exercise as well, thanks for your effort Pavel! 

One more wrinkle is the subjective fit to what the Mavs need next to Luka and (hopefully) Kyrie. In my mind that moves offensive minded centers off the list if they aren‘t named Jokic - a Sabonis or Towns, as talented as they may be, won‘t help the Mavs win in the playoffs, because they can‘t even out the weaknesses of Luka (and Kyrie). Same with „gettable“ guys like Vucevic or Wood.

For a Mavs specific ranking you could reduce the weighting of scoring, because a team led by Luka and Kyrie doesn’t need a 20+ points per game scorer anywhere. 

Good analogy is the Nuggets roster around Jokic and Murray, who are much better offensive than defensive players, as the two best players of the probably best team in the league. As I wrote in an earlier post we need the Aaron Gordons, KCPs and Browns/Brauns surrounding Luka and Kyrie. That’s why I agree with your list that Adebayo and Jackson Jr. would be our 3rd and 4th best options, Jom. 
Where‘s our Tyson Chandler 2.0 to be found?