Trade & FA 2023-24: PHX Wants Lebron+Bronny| Jazz to Shop Collins

[omahen]

From Stein:

My pal @CBAMavs on Twitter articulated this so well that it bears repeating here, because I didn't explain it as thoroughly as I could and should have. The primary difference between Kyrie Irving's looming free agency and what the Mavericks went through last summer when Jalen Brunson bolted for New York without compensation is that Dallas would at least come away with a projected $17 million-to-$19 million in salary cap space if Irving were to sign elsewhere without a sign-and-trade. That figure could potentially rise if the Mavericks managed to shed an additional contract or two. The Mavericks had no cap flexibility to try to atone for their Brunson’s gaffes.

They obviously would be well shy of maximum cap space in that scenario — and Dallas' painful and lengthy history of free-agent disappointments when it has had cap space is well-documented — but trying to make moves with space certainly would be preferable to settling for some unappetizing sign-and-trade swap in the event that a new deal with Irving can't be struck and he departs.

https://marcstein.substack.com/p/on-game...-more-from

[Chicagojk]

Would you trade 10 with salary filler to Houston for pick 20, Martin and Tate?

[Chicagojk]

Or how about a trade with Atlanta to move back
To 15 for Deandre Hunter?

[KillerLeft]

Or how about a trade with Atlanta to move back
To 15 for Deandre Hunter?

I would do that, for sure, but I don’t see why ATL would. Hunter is potentially one of those Jerami Grant types who can guard 1-4. Veeeeery few of them exist.

[omahen]

Would you trade 10 with salary filler to Houston for pick 20, Martin and Tate?

I would consider it. I think it is interesting. Tate brings a lot what Mavs need.

---

Or how about a trade with Atlanta to move back
To 15 for Deandre Hunter?

Certainly. But I am not sure we have anything that would interest Atlanta

[SleepingHero]

Look at the last 5 drafts picks 8-12.

2018
8. Colin Sexton.
9. Kevin Knox
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
12. Miles Bridges 

2019
8.  Jaxon Hayes
9. Rui Hachimura 
10. Cam Reddish
11. P.J Washington
12. Tyler Herro

2020
8. Obi Toppin
9. Deni Avdija
10. Jalen Smith
11. Devin Vassell
12. Tyerese Haliburton

2021
8. Franz Wagner
9. Davion Mitchell
10. Ziaire Williams
11. James Bouknight
12. Josh Primo


2022
8.  Dyson Daniels
9.  Jeremy Sochan.
10. Johnny Davis
11.  Ousmane Deing
12. Jalen Williams

Out of 25 picks, 12 of them are at least rotation players with 4 of them being all-NBA type of dudes. This is the talent level we're talking about with a 10th pick. Mavs shouldn't overthink it and take the blessing. 

I know they're probably going to trade it, but I really think they shouldn't.

[Jym]

Out of 25 picks, 12 of them are at least rotation players with 4 of them being all-NBA type of dudes. This is the talent level we're talking about with a 10th pick. Mavs shouldn't overthink it and take the blessing. 

I know they're probably going to trade it, but I really think they shouldn't.

Kyrie's money is the main thing that really gives me pause, especially if we're trying to get a max guy like Siakam. Just no real way to build around those 3 
Miles Turner and his smaller contract is probably the only thing I'm seeing now that makes a lot of sense with a $50 mil a year Kyrie 
In a vacuum where money doesn't matter, I'm absolutely trading that 10th pick for a starter/fringe all-star with Luka on his current timeline

[F Gump]

Kyrie's money is the main thing that really gives me pause, especially if we're trying to get a max guy like Siakam. Just no real way to build around those 3 

Miles Turner and his smaller contract is probably the only thing I'm seeing now that makes a lot of sense with a $50 mil a year Kyrie 

In a vacuum where money doesn't matter, I'm absolutely trading that 10th pick for a starter/fringe all-star with Luka on his current timeline

You make a good point that it's going to be next-to-impossible to have 3 max players in a hard cap world. Even if you do squeeze them in, you have nothing left to put around them.

But, you really do need 2 legit max producing players to build around. Not one.

That is to say, "we won't be able to pay Siakam" isn't a real obstacle in weighing how to handle Kyrie (who is a legit star-caliber talent), given that you really don't have Siakam or his equal (nor do you have a real route to get him) (nor do we even have any real expectation Siakam will be traded period).

The amount of talent on the team is the thing. Mavs need more, not less. Mavs especially need more high quality talent to complement Luka.

PS - The one place where you might have the BEST shot at getting that guy, without the massive contract, is the draft. If you draft expertly. Most or all of the guys you wish you had, were drafted outside the top 10.

[omahen]

Look at the last 5 drafts picks 8-12.

2018
8. Colin Sexton
9. Kevin Knox
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
12. Miles Bridges 

2019
8.  Jaxon Hayes
9. Rui Hachimura 
10. Cam Reddish
11. P.J Washington
12. Tyler Herro

2020
8. Obi Toppin
9. Deni Avdija
10. Jalen Smith
11. Devin Vassell
12. Tyerese Haliburton

2021
8. Franz Wagner
9. Davion Mitchell
10. Ziaire Williams
11. James Bouknight
12. Josh Primo


2022
8.  Dyson Daniels
9.  Jeremy Sochan
10. Johnny Davis
11.  Ousmane Deing
12. Jalen Williams

Out of 25 picks, 12 of them are at least rotation players with 4 of them being all-NBA type of dudes. This is the talent level we're talking about with a 10th pick. Mavs shouldn't overthink it and take the blessing. 

I know they're probably going to trade it, but I really think they shouldn't.

There is also the other side. 13 out of those 25 were misses. Sochan, Williams are not there yet, at least not on a level of a credible starter on a contender. Mitchell, Toppin, Avdija, Hachimura and Sexton are nothing special, not really credible starters on a contender. This leaves you only 5 guys. That is 20 % chance. I am far from trading #10 for back-ups, but if there is a credible starter (one that fits) available...

[ItsGoTime]

There is also the other side. 13 out of those 25 were misses. Sochan, Williams are not there yet, at least not on a level of a credible starter on a contender. Mitchell, Toppin, Avdija, Hachimura and Sexton are nothing special, not really credible starters on a contender. This leaves you only 5 guys. That is 20 % chance. I am far from trading #10 for back-ups, but if there is a credible starter (one that fits) available...

Then 4 of that 5 were drafted at or beyond 10. The study would have been more accurate had it gone from 10-14 because if we’re picking at 10, we can’t have a guy picked at 8 or 9.

[Jason Terry]

I wonder if the Wolves would be interested in a SnT of Naz Reid for Bullock. Kinda makes sense for them with their cap situation

[DanSchwartzgan]

Not really interested in dealing with the Spurs for #10. They have a bunch of junk from a tanking team they're trying to offload in hopes of getting Cason Wallace. Do you really want to help a division rival with giving them a point of attack defender to hound Luka for the next decade to go along with Victor protecting the rim? 

Don't really care what the Spurs get out of this.  Just care about the Mav's building the best thing they can build.  

I think there is a huge overvaluation of the #10 lottery ticket here.  We know with near certainty that the player taken here won't be a significant playoff contributor for the next couple of years.  We don't know if this player will even be a starter in that period of time.

The point of the 'junk' from SA (and I don't disagree) is the opportunity to use the assets (mainly the pick) elsewhere.  I already showed how Draymond might be included in such a deal.  What if we sent both Bertans and McGee into SA's cap space and swapped #10 for 33 and Atlanta's 2025 (so, no junk returning).  We know from last year that #11 was worth 3 protected firsts. Why not a second, an unprotected first and a salary dump (SA isn't at the floor for 2022/23 and needs to get to the floor for the upcoming season, so they will use their space in one form or another.

You don't do the SA deal unless you have something else lined up. Such a deal with SA would provide a $21.4mm TE.  OG and either Koloko or Achiuwa would fit into that TE.  Toronto isn't going to get a better offer for OG than two unprotected firsts (25 Atl and 27 Dallas) and no returning salary (an important aspect of this).  OG is one of those guys who probably can't sign an extension and will reach UFA a year from now. We solve our two biggest problems and Toronto can potentially keep whoever else they want from their current team.

[Chicagojk]

I would do that, for sure, but I don’t see why ATL would. Hunter is potentially one of those Jerami Grant types who can guard 1-4. Veeeeery few of them exist.

Yeah, I don't know what ATL wants.   There has been some talk that they want to look for another big trade by putting several of their parts together for a higher tier player.  But they need to do something.    They are looking at a tax right in the face.  With Collins and Hunter they have two guys making a lot of money with young guys or cheaper guys ready to play.   OO, Bey, AJ Griffin, and Jalen Johnson.    Plus Bogdonavich can also play some wing.   

Hunter declined this season and has also been injured.   And now he is making 20 plus million for the next 4 years.  They need to make some decisions because they have a minutes crunch and tax concerns for a team that probably is not a contender anytime soon.

---

Look at the last 5 drafts picks 8-12.

2018
8. Colin Sexton
9. Kevin Knox
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
12. Miles Bridges 

2019
8.  Jaxon Hayes
9. Rui Hachimura 
10. Cam Reddish
11. P.J Washington
12. Tyler Herro

2020
8. Obi Toppin
9. Deni Avdija
10. Jalen Smith
11. Devin Vassell
12. Tyerese Haliburton

2021
8. Franz Wagner
9. Davion Mitchell
10. Ziaire Williams
11. James Bouknight
12. Josh Primo


2022
8.  Dyson Daniels
9.  Jeremy Sochan
10. Johnny Davis
11.  Ousmane Deing
12. Jalen Williams

Out of 25 picks, 12 of them are at least rotation players with 4 of them being all-NBA type of dudes. This is the talent level we're talking about with a 10th pick. Mavs shouldn't overthink it and take the blessing. 

I know they're probably going to trade it, but I really think they shouldn't.

Just nitpicking, but I wouldn't include Mitchell in the made it group.    On the other hand, Miles Bridges issues are his own doing.  He was in line for a monster payday.   I also like PJ Washington.    And I really like Devin Vasell and expect a big jump this for him.    Dyson Daniels does not fit your threshold yet, but I think he will wind up being a good pro too.   

Would I trade 10 for Daniels?   To be honest, I would really think hard about it.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Or how about a trade with Atlanta to move back
To 15 for Deandre Hunter?

Not sure Atlanta trades Hunter for #10 straight up.

[Chicagojk]

Not sure Atlanta trades Hunter for #10 straight up.

You may be right and I am not in tune with ATL thinking.  Although checking out their messages boards there is not a lot of kind words on Hunter.   But, ATL has some really tough decisions to make.  They have cheaper players ready for minutes.

[SleepingHero]

This is what Jaylen Brown's potential supermax would look like
[url=https://twitter.com/thenbacentral/status/1663556024912199680?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg][/url]
(Via @sportingnews )

[Chicagojk]

This is what Jaylen Brown's potential supermax would look like
[url=https://twitter.com/thenbacentral/status/1663556024912199680?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg][/url]
(Via @sportingnews )

Yeah, that is going to be an interesting negotiation.   Something tells me it won't be a smooth negotiation process.  But I think they find a $ and he resigns there.  It is best for all parties.  And maybe he is moved while under that contract.  

But Jaylen does things differently, so we will see.

[SleepingHero]

Yeah, that is going to be an interesting negotiation.   Something tells me it won't be a smooth negotiation process.  But I think they find a $ and he resigns there.  It is best for all parties.  And maybe he is moved while under that contract.  

But Jaylen does things differently, so we will see.

Especially with the new CBA, that type of contract for Brown would severely cap Boston's ability to make trades. Both him and Tatum would account for 90 mil of the cap. 

Impossible to divvy up the last 50% of space to 10 guys and remain the powerhouse they've been.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Especially with the new CBA, that type of contract for Brown would severely cap Boston's ability to make trades. Both him and Tatum would account for 90 mil of the cap. 

Impossible to divvy up the last 50% of space to 10 guys and remain the powerhouse they've been.

Bill Simmons addressed the new CBA in a podcast over the weekend.  His conclusion is the middle class is going to get screwed.  He envisions a world where every team has two ‘stars’ and fill in best as they can.  So, the kinds of deals that THJ got won’t exist except for maybe clear third option types.

The other place I think teams are going to struggle is defining what to pay those two ‘stars’.  If you aren’t the best guy on your own team, are you really a ‘super-max’?  Do teams continue to pay 30-something’s for past performance when they really need to arrive at something that represents what they are likely to get from the player during the life of the contract.  What about ‘stars’ like Beal who score a lot, but have never led their teams to much success.  Are you a super-max if you can’t lead your team to the playoffs?  Teams need to find a tier under the highest number possible for those guys who are great, but not at the same level as the best of the best.  But, man that is going to be hard to negotiate…especially when those players would be the best player on another team and the other team is starved for star-power.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

^ interesting stuff

Gonna be intriguing what the Mavs offer Kyrie