Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[F Gump]

"Are we stretching Bertans to get that Full MLE?".... In my scenario, yes I am assuming DB is SW'ed.

"No way I’m trading them #10 for Ayton without other assets coming back."...I wouldn't either. And I am not eager to trade down and offer a lower pick either. We are circling back to the idea that we likely HAVE TO offer a pick, because we HAVE TO get Ayton, and I just don't think that's the approach the Mavs should take.

"...and San Antonio the other for taking Bertans. That gives you a path to using the Full MLE and staying out of the tax if Kyrie will take Luka money instead of his max (something else I've been harping on). ".... Trading Kleber-McBee_Bullock for DA, you can simply SW Bertans, not trade him, and get to the full MLE w a Kyrie salary equal to Luka. Or if you trade down in picks, because you are chasing PHX w a lower pick, keep and use one of them. See the list in post 748 of what's included.

[F Gump]

Moving on from THJ and Maxi leaves the bench pretty thin. 

Even if they don't trade both, it may be time to embrace the plus in that context, where the Mavs are offering lots of minutes to kids or veterans who come on a minimum. That has been been used by other teams to great success. Plenty of Available Minutes can be a great enticement, and Mavs need the help.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Seems like it hinges on: 

1. His willingness to accept a sub-MLE contract, and
2. His willingness to accept a bench role with limited minutes

He might not have any choice on the contract, if there aren't any other higher offers.

On the role... perhaps he's really stuck on either starting or starters' minutes.  So would he take less money to achieve that?  $5m instead of $7m?  Or $8m instead of $11?

Some NBA players seem to have an ego that attaches tremendous importance to "starting".  Others care a lot about total minutes, or perhaps ending games.  Some just want the team to win, and don't seem to care how they're utilized.

Not sure how Wood sees himself here.

That's insanity, the sub-MLE part.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I can't believe I'm going to admit to this, but a similar thought actually crossed my mind.  Moving on from THJ and Maxi leaves the bench pretty thin.  I started putting together a top 9/10.  Starters were Ayton/Luka/Green/Bullock/Kyrie.  That leaves Hardy, presumably a resigned Powell and.....

Pretty quick you get to the McGee/Morris/Bertans/Holiday types (maybe this is why Morris is so confident of his return).  I don't see Wood starting (heck, I don't see him returning at all), but his ability to fill a pretty gaping hole did cross my mind.  Of course, he'd have to accept the role I thought he was good for all along (bigger version of Lou Williams).  There is definitely a hole to be filled if Maxi and THJ move on and Wood would probably be better than what you get with the TP MLE.

Welcome to the darkside.

Could you scheme enough defense to make a Luka, Kyrie, Green, Wood, Ayton lineup work?

I still like a Kyrie for Jrue trade.  Luka, Jrue, Green, Wood, Ayton is ideal.  Kyrie for Jrue and Allen.

Point - Luka, Hardy
Guard - Jrue, Allen
Guard - Green, Bullock
Forward - Wood, Morris
Center - Ayton, Powell

[dirkfansince1998]

That's insanity, the sub-MLE part.

Not sure. Looking at deadline rumors no one showed interest in a trade. Some teams won´t have the full MLE. Rebuilding teams have no reason to go after a guy in his late 20s. He might be in for a rude awakening.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Not sure. Looking at deadline rumors no one showed interest in a trade. Some teams won´t have the full MLE. Rebuilding teams have no reason to go after a guy in his late 20s. He might be in for a rude awakening.

Yes, because all trade rumors are real.  The only people who believe that shit are fans.

I place Wood at Nurkic money.

[dirkfansince1998]

Yes, because all trade rumors are real.  The only people who believe that shit are fans.

I place Wood at Nurkic money.

Magic, Pacers, Rockets, Pistons, Jazz, Spurs and OKC are the only teams that can even offer Nurkic money. Maybe the Hornets if they let Washington and Bridges walk. Lakers if they give up their entire depth (not going to happen).

Fans aren't creating the salary cap. Is any of the listed teams a likely destination? Are other teams willing to make major roster changes to create space for Wood or give up value in a sign&trade?
Personally I don't see it but I guess it only takes one team.

[ItsGoTime]

Magic, Pacers, Rockets, Pistons, Jazz, Spurs and OKC are the only teams that can even offer Nurkic money. Maybe the Hornets if they let Washington and Bridges walk. Lakers if they give up their entire depth (not going to happen).

Fans aren't creating the salary cap. Is any of the listed teams a likely destination? Are other teams willing to make major roster changes to create space for Wood or give up value in a sign&trade?
Personally I don't see it but I guess it only takes one team.

Jazz and maybe OKC, for that money? Probably not. MLE level money, sure.

[Mavs2021]

So Monty Williams got canned. No doubt the Suns owner has new daddy syndrome. New daddies don´t care about THJs, Klebers and 10th picks. You want Ayton, you´ll need to offer Kyrie. Good news is that you can probably add McGee, more Suns pieces and 2nd round picks to get it done.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Ayton + five second round picks for Kyrie is still the easiest way out of this mess. I´m sure Phoenix does it. 

I don't think Phoenix has any interest in Kyrie.  They have the same problem we do.  Need good role players around their two stars.

[Luka77]

Trading away number 10 in this year's draft for Ayton would be a serious overpay. There is no way that I do that. Ayton is worth expiring contracts and a second rounder at best.

I want to ask all those that think that is Aytons value why? The Mavs traded Porzingis (a similar highly drafted player)having to take on two bad long contracts and gave a second rounder. I think PHX should expect a similar package in trading Ayton. In no world should the Mavs give up a lottery pick in a strong draft for Ayton?

If PHX insists on draft capital and the Mavs have no other choices to find a starting center I give up the '27 first top 20 protected at best. If they require a pick in this draft I may consider a trade down considering who is available and give the lower first (Utah 16/28 for 10).

Ayton is NOT worth number 10 in this year's draft. I know the Mavs want to do Duffy a favor and get his client elsewhere but not at the cost of overall team building.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
Could you scheme enough defense to make a Luka, Kyrie, Green, Wood, Ayton lineup work?
 

I don't think so.  I think the role on a team with Luka and Kyrie would have to be the bench big who comes in during the Kyrie-sit and Luka-sit minutes.  Some of those minutes would be next to Ayton and those minutes would be fine.  With Maxi gone in the Ayton trade (presumably), it will be hard to put enough D around Wood as the solo big playing with Hardy and one of the stars.  I'm not in love with that part of it unless you show me another bigger defender on the roster.

I'm not sure this line of thinking is as much an endorsement of Wood as much as it is an acknowledgement of how weak we'd be following a THJ/Maxi/Pick trade.  It is bleak once you get past Luka/Kyrie/Ayton/Green/Reggie plus Hardy and presumably Powell.  That is probably why FG has taken the position of Maxi or THJ, but not both.  Ideally, it would be THJ/McGee/Pick.  Then, I'd feel better about all of this (speaking hypothetically, because I still think Wood is gone).  

This is why I'd prefer the trade-down route to a S/W of Bertans (and I was probably the first here to talk about a Bertans S/W long long ago).  The purpose of the trade down is to give one of the picks to SA for taking on Bertans.  Not only does it wipe the slate clean on Bertans (instead of years of cap hits), but it creates a TPE of $16mm.  That could prove valuable as teams look to rearrange their salary commitments.  Depending on what it takes to sign Kyrie, you could have both the TPE and the TP MLE and stay under $180mm.  

If Maxi is outgoing with THJ as in the Stein hypo, then you probably need two players to add the remaining seven.  So, I like the trade down and pay someone to take Bertans.  If you could somehow make this THJ/McGee/Pick, then I'd be happy to move #10 and S/W Bertans and go MLE shopping.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
If PHX insists on draft capital and the Mavs have no other choices to find a starting center I give up the '27 first top 20 protected at best.  If they require a pick in this draft I may consider a trade down considering who is available and give the lower first (Utah 16/28 for 10).

Ayton is NOT worth number 10 in this year's draft. I know the Mavs want to do Duffy a favor and get his client elsewhere but not at the cost of overall team building.

We can't protect 2027 in any way with 2029 already out the door.

"Worth" and "market" are two different things.  Stein gave us his view of what the market for Ayton might be.  Who knows if Phoenix is trying to create a competitive marketplace by spreading rumors about every center-starved team in the league or if there are absolutely no takers for Ayton at that money.  I suspect the market will be higher than what any of us think his worth should be.  I do see a difference between Ayton and KP.  That difference is health.

[ItsGoTime]

We can't protect 2027 in any way with 2029 already out the door.

Well, it’s not a great asset if it’s top 20 protected and nothing (or SRP) if the pick doesn’t convey, but that does satisfy the rule.

[Mavs2021]

I don't think Phoenix has any interest in Kyrie.  They have the same problem we do.  Need good role players around their two stars.

New owners want shiny toys, not reasonable roster construction decisions and role players.

Chris Paul will be 39!!! when the play-offs start next year. Are they going to rely on Cameron Payne next year, too? Obviously not. They need a PG.

[ItsGoTime]

That difference is health.

Absolutely, because just like we do around here, people can talk themselves into a young player needing a change in scenery. If KP had Ayton’s injury history, the trade would have looked a lot different IMO.

[Luka77]

We can't protect 2027 in any way with 2029 already out the door.

"Worth" and "market" are two different things.  Stein gave us his view of what the market for Ayton might be.  Who knows if Phoenix is trying to create a competitive marketplace by spreading rumors about every center-starved team in the league or if there are absolutely no takers for Ayton at that money.  I suspect the market will be higher than what any of us think his worth should be.  I do see a difference between Ayton and KP.  That difference is health.

Where those Steins thoughts on the market or what the actual market is?  Because if that is the market I move on and wish Ayton the best of luck on his new team.  On a side note no team in the lottery is trading for Ayton.

Moreover, when considering Zingis and Ayton are we talking about availability or health? During the time period that Zingis was with the Mavs he averaged approximately 50 games played during that period Ayton averaged 54.  Is that difference worth or market value a lottery pick?  I think not.

[ItsGoTime]

Where those Steins thoughts on the market or what the actual market is?  Because if that is the market I move on and wish Ayton the best of luck on his new team.  On a side note no team in the lottery is trading for Ayton.

Moreover, when considering Zingis and Ayton are we talking about availability or health? During the time period that Zingis was with the Mavs he averaged approximately 50 games played during that period Ayton averaged 54.  Is that difference worth or market value a lottery pick?  I think not.

I don’t think ignoring KP’s injury history does anything for this argument.

[Luka77]

I don’t think ignoring KP’s injury history does anything for this argument.

So you can ignore Aytons PED history? If the Mavs offer 10 in the lottery they would be bidding against themselves.

Also like I said Ayton trade value should be similar to Zingis. Ayton should draw slightly more but not the difference of a lottery pick.

[ItsGoTime]

So you can ignore Aytons PED history? If the Mavs offer 10 in the lottery they would be bidding against themselves.

Also like I said Ayton trade value should be similar to Zingis.  Ayton should draw slightly more but not the difference of a lottery pick.

Looks like we’re heading to a conclusion of his time in Phoenix, so looks like we’ll see what the league thinks.

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I will say, firing Monte might be a step to retaining him. Edit: or at least a step towards keeping him if the return value isn’t there.