Trade & FA 2023-24: 76ers Believe They Have A Shot at PG13

[F Gump]

I wouldn't sleep on the possibility of a Paul retirement. 

....

If they S/W his guarantee, its only $3.16mm per year for five years.

That's an interesting idea, that PHX and CP would do a waive-and-retire. But if he is waived, I wonder, would he be more likely to want to retire, or to pursue another paycheck in free agency? IOW, isn't there a real chance CP gets waived, but as a PHX "time for a change" decision, with no window dressing of it being a retirement?

That question doesn't really change the result for PHX, of course. Either way, the payroll math changes in their favor.

(An accounting note - a SW of CP would be over 3 years at $5.267M per, which still makes a significant difference).

Followup question - would CP make sense in Dallas for 2 years at full MLE, alongside Luka, if Kyrie was S&T'ed somewhere?

[Mapka]

How is this lineup
Luka, Jrue, Green, Wood, Lopez
not better than this lineup?
Luka, Kyrie, THJ, Bullock, Powell

Both this lineups are beyond ugly.

[Branduil]

A smart team would look for the next Jrue, not overpay for him now that he's washed

[ballsrchr]

A smart team would look for the next Jrue, not overpay for him now that he's washed

Well...since I appear to have lost the ability to like a post...I'll just comment.  I think Jrue still has a little bit left in the tank...BUT this statement is entirely accurate.  

It's also what the Mavs have made a habit of doing.

I have little hope they will do something different any time soon.

But since I'm a Mavs homer I still have hope...

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

A smart team would look for the next Jrue, not overpay for him now that he's washed

And that next Jrue is who?  Really easy to make such statements.

[ItsGoTime]

And that next Jrue is who?  Really easy to make such statements.

I’m more on your side of this argument, because that team is much better than the team we put out there. I would be fine if that was the outcome of the offseason, anything but keeping any semblance of this season’s team. Those are also Kidd type guys that he can spectate like the rest of us. 

That said, I’ve said for a few years that Dejuante Murray is the new Jrue.

[dirkfansince1998]

Love Holiday but we should at least mention that on top of his age his most recent playoff performances are another red flag. His offense just isn´t holding up under pressure and the Mavs don´t have the amount of fire power to compensate for a max player that is putting up 15-20pts on sub 50% TS.
Maybe if they can keep Kyrie and Luka. But that would eat up the entire capspace. Leave no option to upgrade the front court.

[DanSchwartzgan]

That's an interesting idea, that PHX and CP would do a waive-and-retire. But if he is waived, I wonder, would he be more likely to want to retire, or to pursue another paycheck in free agency? IOW, isn't there a real chance CP gets waived, but as a PHX "time for a change" decision, with no window dressing of it being a retirement?

That question doesn't really change the result for PHX, of course. Either way, the payroll math changes in their favor.

(An accounting note - a SW of CP would be over 3 years at $5.267M per, which still makes a significant difference).

Followup question - would CP make sense in Dallas for 2 years at full MLE, alongside Luka, if Kyrie was S&T'ed somewhere?

With the CP money dramatically reduced, it isn't hard to design something that keeps Phoenix under $170mm (especially if Kyrie took less than his full max).  There are also fairly benign ways to get Dallas to where they could have the full MLE.  With a beast in the middle, Luka can be anything from 1-4 meaning the MLE could go toward any position...so why not Paul.  Its not like there are a ton of great PG's in free agency.

I'm really interested to see the details of this MLE as a TPE thing.  I can see where such a thing would really help teams thread the needle on staying under the various aprons.  Dallas (Maxi and Bullock) and Phoenix (Shamet) have guys they could make disappear to open up money if it really works like a TPE.  In a thin free agent market, why wouldn't some team want guys like that on a short term deal.  I would think Phoenix could use an additional $10mm under the super tax in the deal we are contemplating much better than spending it on Shamet.

One other thing on this whole Ayton and Kyrie thing.  The original rumor on this was Eric Pincus saying Dallas would pursue Ayton if they retain Kyrie...not for Kyrie.  Sign me up for that one.  I imagine Maxi has to be in the outgoing.  Phoenix needs depth and any draft assets they got from us would probably go to a third team for a real player.  I find it really hard to figure out Ayton's value in the marketplace.  Maxi/THJ/#10?  Maxi/Bullock/McGee/#10?  Could Wood come into play here?

[Mapka]

With the CP money dramatically reduced, it isn't hard to design something that keeps Phoenix under $170mm (especially if Kyrie took less than his full max).  There are also fairly benign ways to get Dallas to where they could have the full MLE.  With a beast in the middle, Luka can be anything from 1-4 meaning the MLE could go toward any position...so why not Paul.  Its not like there are a ton of great PG's in free agency.

I'm really interested to see the details of this MLE as a TPE thing.  I can see where such a thing would really help teams thread the needle on staying under the various aprons.  Dallas (Maxi and Bullock) and Phoenix (Shamet) have guys they could make disappear to open up money if it really works like a TPE.  In a thin free agent market, why wouldn't some team want guys like that on a short term deal.  I would think Phoenix could use an additional $10mm under the super tax in the deal we are contemplating much better than spending it on Shamet.

One other thing on this whole Ayton and Kyrie thing.  The original rumor on this was Eric Pincus saying Dallas would pursue Ayton if they retain Kyrie...not for Kyrie.  Sign me up for that one.  I imagine Maxi has to be in the outgoing.  Phoenix needs depth and any draft assets they got from us would probably go to a third team for a real player.  I find it really hard to figure out Ayton's value in the marketplace.  Maxi/THJ/#10?  Maxi/Bullock/McGee/#10?  Could Wood come into play here?

I don't want to pay that much for Ayton.
We maybe Wood/THJ/#10 for Ayton and their pick?
They have to send something else somewhere too.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't want to pay that much for Ayton.
We maybe Wood/THJ/#10 for Ayton and their pick?
They have to send something else somewhere too.

The timing is tricky for a deal with Wood and #10.  Dallas would be making a really high pick on behalf of Phoenix without knowing for sure that Wood would agree.  I get that we can negotiate with our own FA's, but anything he agrees to in June isn't enforceable in July.  When there is an announcement in June and completion in July, teams control all aspects of the trade and are just waiting for the new season to make the trade legal.  An option would be to substitute a future pick for #10 so that Wood can be included.  I don't think 2027 is appropriate here as it has to be unprotected.

We'll have colonies on Mars by the time Phoenix can trade a #1 pick.  I could see involving Brooklyn with the Nets getting #10 while sending Claxton to Phoenix and #22 to Dallas.  That reduces our outgoing from #10 to the value spread between #10 and #22.  Could you get by with Phoenix getting THJ and McGee if the Suns also receive Claxton?

[omahen]

I don't want to pay that much for Ayton.
We maybe Wood/THJ/#10 for Ayton and their pick?
They have to send something else somewhere too.

Phoenix doesn't have a first roung pick this year and can't trade any other first rounder. Everything went for Durant. 

Ayton is having another bad series. I am not really convinced that Phoenix is the one to blame for that. I wonder what his value is around the league. Could a rebuilding team see him as one of key building blocks for future? San Antonio doesn't really have a center yet, Indy wanted to sign him before. Would BKN do something like Claxton, O'Neale and Harris?

Phoenix definitely wants to stay as competitive as possible. I don't think Wood SnT is realistic. I don't think they would be dumping CP3 just to be able to SnT Wood. Maxi instead seems decent. I agree that #10 seems a lot for a player that is on a max contract and not playing near max level. How about if we split that #10 with another team for multiple picks? Utah for example has #16 (would go to Phoenix) and #28 (stays with Mavs). That would seem decent.

[Mapka]

Phoenix doesn't have a first roung pick this year and can't trade any other first rounder. Everything went for Durant. 

Ayton is having another bad series. I am not really convinced that Phoenix is the one to blame for that. I wonder what his value is around the league. Could a rebuilding team see him as one of key building blocks for future? San Antonio doesn't really have a center yet, Indy wanted to sign him before. Would BKN do something like Claxton, O'Neale and Harris?

Phoenix definitely wants to stay as competitive as possible. I don't think Wood SnT is realistic. I don't think they would be dumping CP3 just to be able to SnT Wood. Maxi instead seems decent. I agree that #10 seems a lot for a player that is on a max contract and not playing near max level. How about if we split that #10 with another team for multiple picks? Utah for example has #16 (would go to Phoenix) and #28 (stays with Mavs). That would seem decent.

I don't think Maxi is doing much for them.

I might just prefer #10 to that trade. And I'm no fan of the drafting gamble.

Splitting the pick might be a good try.

[SleepingHero]

Would ya +2027 FRP?

[omahen]

How about this trade for Ayton:
Det: #10, CP3
Pho: Bogdanovic, THJ, Bullock (or Maxi), Stewart
Dal: Ayton, Livers (or Hampton)

Phoenix gets depth, two good shooters to surround Durant/Booker and young cheap center all while saving a lot of money.
Detroit replaces their vet to school youngsters and add another high pick while giving up center they don't really need.
Dallas gets Ayton and young wing to play back-up minutes.

[omahen]

There are also many other iterations possible. Burks instead of Bogi (Detroit eats more salary) or simply exclude CP3 and send THJ to Detroit and Bogi to Phoenix.

[Mapka]

How about this trade for Ayton:
Det: #10, CP3
Pho: Bogdanovic, THJ, Bullock (or Maxi), Stewart
Dal: Ayton, Livers (or Hampton)

Phoenix gets depth, two good shooters to surround Durant/Booker and young cheap center all while saving a lot of money.
Detroit replaces their vet to school youngsters and add another high pick while giving up center they don't really need.
Dallas gets Ayton and young wing to play back-up minutes.

I'd rather get Bog/Steward for us ...

[omahen]

I'd rather get Bog/Steward for us ...

Mavs need wing defenders next to Kyrie and Luka, so Bogi could only be 6th man here. Sort of woulnd't fit as THJ doesn't, despite him being better player. And I am not paying #10 for a player that doesn't fit and young guy which I doubt could anchor Mavs defense.

[Mapka]

Mavs need wing defenders next to Kyrie and Luka, so Bogi could only be 6th man here. Sort of woulnd't fit as THJ doesn't, despite him being better player. And I am not paying #10 for a player that doesn't fit and young guy which I doubt could anchor Mavs defense.

This maks sense, but..
-We don't get any wing defenders in your trade also.
-We pay for the Suns to get the best team
-and deplet our asset for a big gamble.

[ItsGoTime]

Mavs need wing defenders next to Kyrie and Luka, so Bogi could only be 6th man here. Sort of woulnd't fit as THJ doesn't, despite him being better player. And I am not paying #10 for a player that doesn't fit and young guy which I doubt could anchor Mavs defense.

I have to agree with this even though I think Stewart is a perfect backup C (and want him pretty badly). I have my perfect C rotation of WCJ and Stewart. Stewart however is not the right prize for a #10 pick in a good draft. Bogi doesn’t make up the difference for this team.

[omahen]

This maks sense, but..
-We don't get any wing defenders in your trade also.
-We pay for the Suns to get the best team
-and deplet our asset for a big gamble.

We do get a center, which is also a huge need. I agree Ayton is a gamble, but Mavs are reported to like him and he is a distressed asset. We still have 2027 to bring in a wing.

Also: I doubt Phoenix will just dump Ayton for some (at best) neutral value role players. They will want more or he stays with them as he did last season