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2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]
Don´t think the center solution will be available on the free agent market. Only so much the Mavs can do with the tax player MLE. And I am not interested in any of the old school bruisers that have been mentioned. In the modern NBA Drummond or Howard are vet min players. Not to mention that the Mavs would have to change their entire defensive scheme for them. Don´t want to go back to the KP days. Searching for a big the Mavs need to start with the things that Powell can do and find someone that adds additional skills.

Solution has to come through the draft or a trade. Option one is not a guaranteed fix and probably takes some time because most young bigs aren´t ready for big minutes. Option two is risky because it is going to cost a lot.

My free agency target would be a player that can reduce DFS´s load. Big 3&D wings like Batum, Porter Jr or Anderson.
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(05-28-2022, 02:15 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: My free agency target would be a player that can reduce DFS´s load. Big 3&D wings like Batum, Porter Jr or Anderson.


I agree with the line of thinking. I would just add, I think Mavs won't look for many FA this season, unless they will be vet mins. After they hopefully resign Brunson, they will be deep in the tax and each additional player will cost way too much. I think it is Brunson and trades for this offseason.
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Mavs are kind of screwed with roster upgrades.  But one thing IMO that is for sure is Brunson is fool's gold and the Mavs need to move on from him.  He scores very well in this current era.  But if he is going to be your second best player, you aren't winning a championship.  And making the WCFs does not disprove that.

Utah was imploding and they all hated each other.  Mitchell averaged 2 passes (not ASSISTS!) a game to Gobert.  That is not the way to win when your best a second best player won't play together.

Phx had their own infighting with Ayton and to throw in the Chris Paul stuff.....  Phx probably shouldn't have made the Finals last year.  

The Mavs need is definitely switchable front court help.  A player that could play as a power forward who could defend whomever is thrown at him.

Johnathan Isaac would be perfect if he is healthy.
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(05-28-2022, 02:24 PM)omahen Wrote: I agree with the line of thinking. I would just add, I think Mavs won't look for many FA this season, unless they will be vet mins. After they hopefully resign Brunson, they will be deep in the tax and each additional player will cost way too much. I think it is Brunson and trades for this offseason.

This is why I think they need to dump Burke, Brown, and Boban. If you can somehow use cash + 2nd's to move them with no salary coming back, they might be able to make a taxpayer mid level signing without breaking the bank.
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(05-28-2022, 02:34 PM)Bayliss Wrote: Mavs are kind of screwed with roster upgrades.  But one thing IMO that is for sure is Brunson is fool's gold and the Mavs need to move on from him.  He scores very well in this current era.  But if he is going to be your second best player, you aren't winning a championship.  And making the WCFs does not disprove that.

Utah was imploding and they all hated each other.  Mitchell averaged 2 passes (not ASSISTS!) a game to Gobert.  That is not the way to win when your best a second best player won't play together.

Phx had their own infighting with Ayton and to throw in the Chris Paul stuff.....  Phx probably shouldn't have made the Finals last year.  

The Mavs need is definitely switchable front court help.  A player that could play as a power forward who could defend whomever is thrown at him.

Johnathan Isaac would be perfect if he is healthy.

It does not really matter if you assessment regarding Brunson is correct.  The reality is the only way to maximize both the quality of the team and the quality of the asset base is to re-sign Brunson.  It is extremely unlikely there is any other option regarding Brunson that would put us in a better asset position.  These talks about whether Brunson is the right fit or not are for a later day.  In the near term there is no better option than signing Brunson.
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A lot of the improvement from this year to next has to be internal - getting Luka to come in ripped, and revamping the offense to push the ball more. 

I agree very much with Dr. Mav's post, aside from his third point. Dinwiddie is fine for next year at least. This offseason is about upgrading center and adding a third 3-and-D wing so that DFS and Bullock don't need to play 40 mpg. 

My prediction for the offseason at this point is 1) BPA in the draft (if they aren't going to use the pick to move THJ's contract for something that fits better or just to clear salary), 2) somehow acquiring Holmes into our TPE, or signing Hartenstein to the tax MLE (why not both?), 3) making a minor trade using end of the bench guys to try to address the third 3-and-D issue, and 4) being opportunistic with vet min additions. Oh, and yeah, Brunson.
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(05-28-2022, 03:07 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: A lot of the improvement from this year to next has to be internal - getting Luka to come in ripped, and revamping the offense to push the ball more. 

I agree very much with Dr. Mav's post, aside from his third point. Dinwiddie is fine for next year at least. This offseason is about upgrading center and adding a third 3-and-D wing so that DFS and Bullock don't need to play 40 mpg. 

My prediction for the offseason at this point is 1) BPA in the draft (if they aren't going to use the pick to move THJ's contract for something that fits better or just to clear salary), 2) somehow acquiring Holmes into our TPE, or signing Hartenstein to the tax MLE (why not both?), 3) making a minor trade using end of the bench guys to try to address the third 3-and-D issue, and 4) being opportunistic with vet min additions. Oh, and yeah, Brunson.

I can't imagine we are going to use the pick just to dump Timmy's salary.  That would be making this team objectively worse simply to avoid paying tax.  I don't think there would be a valid asset building argument to make that move.  If Cuban does something like that, it will be clear he is more worried about his pocket book than winning championships.
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(05-28-2022, 03:32 PM)mvossman Wrote: I can't imagine we are going to use the pick just to dump Timmy's salary.  That would be making this team objectively worse simply to avoid paying tax.  I don't think there would be a valid asset building argument to make that move.  If Cuban does something like that, it will be clear he is more worried about his pocket book than winning championships.

I'm of the opinion that Timmy's defensive woes make him a non-fit for these Mavs (i.e. a Luka-Brunson-SD-DFS-RB-Maxi-our new center core), as well as taking the ball out of the hands of better offensive players. I get not dumping him to dump him, but on the other hand I firmly believe that playing him in the interests of raising his value for trades the first few months of next year will hurt team chemistry and defense, and likely cost us wins. I would have no problem whatsoever with using our first (it's a 26th pick, folks. How much confidence do you have in our current, untried BT to nail a pick in that range?) to de-clutter our payroll. If we get something helpful back in return, even better.
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(05-28-2022, 03:46 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: I'm of the opinion that Timmy's defensive woes make him a non-fit for these Mavs (i.e. a Luka-Brunson-SD-DFS-RB-Maxi-our new center core), as well as taking the ball out of the hands of better offensive players. I get not dumping him to dump him, but on the other hand I firmly believe that playing him in the interests of raising his value for trades the first few months of next year will hurt team chemistry and defense, and likely cost us wins. I would have no problem whatsoever with using our first (it's a 26th pick, folks. How much confidence do you have in our current, untried BT to nail a pick in that range?) to de-clutter our payroll. If we get something helpful back in return, even better.

I tend to agree with this, but I’m not sure now is the best time to fix that.  However, does it have to be a salary as large as THJ to do some good?  I’m not sure OKC would take on Hardaway’s multi-year deal anyway.  

Maybe they eat one year of much smaller salaried Powell for something.  Getting rid of $11mm would make using the TP-MLE more financially feasible (and as I think FG has pointed out is would create a new TPE that would carry past the end of June).  I’m not thinking in terms of a straight dump.  Maybe you take back Kenrich Williams (since everyone is so broken up about the need to have TCU players on the roster).  Williams could be that defensive 3/4 wing that takes some of the pressure off of DFS.  There are all sorts of things you could do with OKC, but cheap expiring Williams makes the most sense to me. 

What would we give?  I could see them having a use for Green.  He certainly fits the timeline better than Williams.  Maybe they swap of 26 for 30 or 26 for 34 (since we are taking Kamgate anyway and 26 is a bit high for him).  The main thing isn’t Williams or the later pick.  It is managing salary in a way that allows them to use the TP-MLE without it costing $25mm (at least relative to where they are already).  Sending out $14mm and bringing back $2mm and also saving money on the lower pick and then spending the savings on the TP-MLE isn’t being cheap.  It is being financially flexible.
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Here is the estimation of Wood market value from Houston beat writer. First two examples are trade up in the draft type so difficult to compare. The third one is Wood to SA for Zach Collins, Romeo Langford and #20. 

Not sure why SA would do this as they have Poeltl at center and Wood doesn't really work with another center (which the author explains in the first part of the article). Leaving that asside, Collins is expiring salary filler (same as Powell), Langford is on a rookie contract in his last year and has never proved he really belongs in the league. #20 is better than #26, but Green has more value than Langford, so we could say the offers are comparable.

Christian Wood, the Rockets’ rebuild and the looming decision that may define it - The Athletic
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Wood would definitely fit on offense, the question is his mentality, but he's also never had the opportunity to play for a winning team before.
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(05-28-2022, 02:01 PM)omahen Wrote: Rest of centers are starting to deviate from ideal, imho. Turner can play defense, but he doesn't really PnR and his rebounding is questionable. I think Indy will play him as their featured center at least until TDL, unless he cleary indicates he wants out. Holmes can only PnR and doesn't shoot, but he has that nice floater from roughly free point range. Gobert can only PnR, the rest of offense is at Powell level. Vucevic could fill that role offensively, but he is a horrible defender. I think guys like Drummond or McGee can only be useful in regular season. Looney proved to be a fantastic defender, but other than that he would be at Powell level of offense in Mavs system.

I don't think Indy will keep Turner until the TDL. They are rebuilding and need to get as much value as possible. They don't really need to build him up further and he could get injured again. It's possible Turner didn't even get injured, he just got shut down to avoid injury and to help Indy tank for that high lottery chance. Turner/Wood are expiring on rebuilding teams so they should be dumped for assets. Hawks are trying to win now so Collins is probably apart of a big move for someone like Ayton.

Gotta remember with Turner he's almost always been playing next to Sabonis who is one of the best rebounders in the entire league and took a bunch from him. Turner has been their more perimeter focused player so he won't get as many offensive rebounds etc. He'll be the lone big here. Also wouldn't really get to roll into the paint much with that front court either. One thing to note is Turner shot over 66% from 2 last season, which is pretty insane. He's really good at scoring inside now and doesn't just dunk. His ball handling is really good for a big too. I like this video vs Boston, he attacks closeouts really well and does some finger rolls. This was while they still had Schroeder, but it's still Boston's defense. He can abuse mismatches.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUKlwXpl4Jg

Turner should be pretty close to optimal. He seems mobile enough and can work inside. Maybe the biggest concern is getting open 3s from Luka and clanking them but the defense should make up for that. He should probably be the first target they go after. Other centers that could be perfect for the system are likely still developing their game. Jaxson Hayes and maybe Mo Bamba? 2 other potential targets although both pretty unlikely with Hayes' court issues and Bamba probably requiring a S&T. Bamba pretty rail thin though so he might be like KP avoiding rolling to the rim for dunks to protect the knees. I think the effort issues are overblown when these guys are on bad tanking teams with expiring contracts. They aren't going hard to avoid injury and make sure they're healthy to sign their next deal. Injury = millions of $ lost.
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(05-28-2022, 07:25 PM)Jakeospikez Wrote: I don't think Indy will keep Turner until the TDL. They are rebuilding and need to get as much value as possible. They don't really need to build him up further and he could get injured again. It's possible Turner didn't even get injured, he just got shut down to avoid injury and to help Indy tank for that high lottery chance. Turner/Wood are expiring on rebuilding teams so they should be dumped for assets. Hawks are trying to win now so Collins is probably apart of a big move for someone like Ayton.

Gotta remember with Turner he's almost always been playing next to Sabonis who is one of the best rebounders in the entire league and took a bunch from him. Turner has been their more perimeter focused player so he won't get as many offensive rebounds etc. He'll be the lone big here. Also wouldn't really get to roll into the paint much with that front court either. One thing to note is Turner shot over 66% from 2 last season, which is pretty insane. He's really good at scoring inside now and doesn't just dunk. His ball handling is really good for a big too. I like this video vs Boston, he attacks closeouts really well and does some finger rolls. This was while they still had Schroeder, but it's still Boston's defense. He can abuse mismatches.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUKlwXpl4Jg

Turner should be pretty close to optimal. He seems mobile enough and can work inside. Maybe the biggest concern is getting open 3s from Luka and clanking them but the defense should make up for that. He should probably be the first target they go after. Other centers that could be perfect for the system are likely still developing their game. Jaxson Hayes and maybe Mo Bamba? 2 other potential targets although both pretty unlikely with Hayes' court issues and Bamba probably requiring a S&T. Bamba pretty rail thin though so he might be like KP avoiding rolling to the rim for dunks to protect the knees. I think the effort issues are overblown when these guys are on bad tanking teams with expiring contracts. They aren't going hard to avoid injury and make sure they're healthy to sign their next deal. Injury = millions of $ lost.
Nice post.  I have never been a huge Turner fan but the more and more I think about it, he may be my number 1 target this summer. With Luka and Jalen neither will ever be elite defenders.  Jalen will always fight and won’t shy from sticking his nose into things but there is a height disadvantage.  Luka Is responsible for such a big load you can’t expect him to be elite on defense…but you hope he improves on some things.  Turner would give us elite protection at the rim and help cover up a lot of driving to the rim.  He could also allow us to play smaller around him.  If we had him and Hardaway this off-season that would have been a nice mix of added defense and offense.  Interesting thoughts on sabonis as well because the lack of rebounding has always been concerning to me.

I like this 9 minute highlight of blocks from him and how he would help our interior defense.

https://youtu.be/djMaG-et6eY

On Wood, I am just sure he is a winning player.  That may not be fair on my part because he has played for some bottom dwellers in his productive years, but not sure if he is someone to count on when it matters.  I believe there may be some question on his character as well.  Again, very talented player, but you need to be right about him.
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I don't want any bigs that can't defend so Wood, Vuc, and the like are out for me. Would love Turner IF we could get him for THJ, Green, and a pick. I might include Maxi but it would be really tough and I'd almost lean toward no. Find a way to add Turner to the core 6 of Luka, Brunson, Dinwiddie, DFS, Bullock, and Maxi and I'm all in though.
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Regarding Turner, it's important to remember he has a lot of leverage for where he might go as a free agent next year. If he WANTS to be traded to Dallas that counts for a lot IMO. Now of course there's nothing stopping another team from still trading for him, it's happened plenty of times before (see Toronto and Kawhi). But it is a factor in any potential trade.
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I do think THJ has to be the 3rd wing at least early in the season. I also believe that he provides a needed skill compliment to Bullock when RB is not hitting on Offense. Way too much salary for him to be the 3rd wing but he is here and it will cost more to move him that it cost to keep him on the roster, if some other pieces can be churned for butter options.

I think moving Sterling Brown and Trey Burke with possibly Marquis Chriss to bring back a Holmes type big is a big improvement, that would hopefully use the TPE. Add Derek Favors as another name to be a probable upgrade to Powell.
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(05-28-2022, 08:29 PM)Branduil Wrote: Regarding Turner, it's important to remember he has a lot of leverage for where he might go as a free agent next year. If he WANTS to be traded to Dallas that counts for a lot IMO. Now of course there's nothing stopping another team from still trading for him, it's happened plenty of times before (see Toronto and Kawhi). But it is a factor in any potential trade.

Yes I am counting on this.  If Dallas is interested, it will be a nice test for our new front office.  Turner grew up in Dallas ft worth as well.  Turner exerting any influence where he would sign an extension would certainly help any trade discussions
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(05-28-2022, 08:18 PM)sterlingmallory Wrote: I don't want any bigs that can't defend so Wood, Vuc, and the like are out for me. Would love Turner IF we could get him for THJ, Green, and a pick. I might include Maxi but it would be really tough and I'd almost lean toward no. Find a way to add Turner to the core 6 of Luka, Brunson, Dinwiddie, DFS, Bullock, and Maxi and I'm all in though.

I find it hard to believe Timmy, Green and pick would be enough.  That would be too easy.  Not sure Green would do it for them given how little Rick played him last year.  Not sure Maxi makes sense for them either.  They are going to be looking for younger players and picks and its hard to believe we wont get out bid by somebody.
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(05-28-2022, 08:33 PM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: I do think THJ has to be the 3rd wing at least early in the season. I also believe that he provides a needed skill compliment to Bullock when RB is not hitting on Offense. Way too much salary for him to be the 3rd wing but he is here and it will cost more to move him that it cost to keep him on the roster, if some other pieces can be churned for butter options.

I think moving Sterling Brown and Trey Burke with possibly Marquis Chriss to bring back a Holmes type big is a big improvement, that would hopefully use the TPE. Add Derek Favors as another name to be a probable upgrade to Powell.

I'm guessing somebody will offer more than crappy expirings for Holmes.  I liked Favors back in his Utah days but he fell off a cliff two years ago and I'm not sure he is an upgrade over Powell any more.
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(05-28-2022, 09:37 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I’ve never been a LaVine fan.  But, I trust Stein more than I trust McMahon.  So, it probably behooves us to think through how this could possibly happen.  To me, there is no reason to consider this unless you know Brunson plans to leave.  I understand few want that to happen, but we don’t get a vote (and neither do the Mav’s).  If there isn’t some chance it happens, the LaVine talk doesn’t make sense.

I want to go there, because it's Stein. But imo it's really hard to envision a deal that is enticing, even if we assume that (as you theorize) Brunson is going to walk.

Even then, Lavine to Dallas isn't an easy deal to put on paper in a way that looks desirable. One reason is that the Mavs would be hard-capped (and starting slightly over the apron line, per Kamm's chart), and Lavine would be base year, so there's a ton of side salary you have to sell to someone. Also, the apron calculations charge all minimum salary players at least the 2-year minimum (approx 1.82M, I think), and you'd almost certainly be sending away more bodies than you get back.

So working through it, part 1
1 Lavine's max will be 36.6M. By the time you account for getting under the apron, and the empty roster slots you have to fill, at least 40M in conracts will be going out.
2 CHI will only be able to take back 24.475 or less of that outgoing, since he's base year.
3 The Bulls have to be willing to cooperate (which means they won't take back junk, and will want good assets)

So what does the part to the Bulls look like? You can fill in the blank.

And part 2 is probably even harder.
1 This is at least 16M outgoing with nothing coming back -- or, 16M+ more going out than coming in
2 For a team to take your salary, with nothing sent back, yhey will only want players of use to them -- or picks or young talent, to compensate for their trouble.

So what does the part to other team(s) look like? You can fill in the blank.

Again, Mavs total outgoing will probably have to be 40M or more, with CHI getting 24 or less.

What is even more problematic to me is that when Mavs would finish with such a deal, they have no way to address the hole at center, and they also probably created more holes in losing Brunson AND in the loss of talent they sent out to CHI and elsewhere to get Lavine.

I just can't come up with any theoretical deal that solves those questions in a way that is better than just signing Brunson and moving forward. Can you?

The one Lavine angle I can imagine is this -- I could see the teams both signing their own, and then in 6 months the PG-heavy Mavs and the SG-heavy Bulls swap Brunson for Lavine (in a deal where all the restrictions no longer exist), but I can't see a path in the summer.
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