2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[Kammrath]

No matter how you slice it, that fix does not come in the form of John Collins playing C for us!

So you have joined "Team Gobert"??

[BoredAssistant]

He wasn’t gone at the injury point, he was gone at the beginning of the season. Why are people not acknowledging this? He was a bad player, and then he got injured!

This will probably be my only post in this thread but just wanted to add to this by saying that the two weeks prior to THJ's injury he was able to finally find a good balance between long-range, mid-range, and driving to the basket hard and dunking or drawing fouls.  Seemed like it was due to coaching and something clicked.

[Branduil]

If we had just not played Luka we could have beaten those pesky Warriors

[ItsGoTime]

So you have joined "Team Gobert"??

I’m indifferent-to-out on him. His playoff showing really made me not like his offensive game. Very uncoordinated and soft (shy’s away from contact and doesn’t play with much force when he does mix it up.) player. We’ve had too many of those through the years.

---

BTW, I was originally in on him.

[mvossman]

He wasn’t gone at the injury point, he was gone at the beginning of the season. Why are people not acknowledging this? He was a bad player, and then he got injured!

While I don't think it makes sense to compare THJ to Middleton, this take goes too far the other way.  He struggled early in the season like the whole team did.  He was not nearly as bad as Bullock the first two months, and was starting to pick it up when he got hurt.  He was one of our best players the last two playoffs and would have been helpful for this one.

[ItsGoTime]

While I don't think it makes sense to compare THJ to Middleton, this take goes too far the other way.  He struggled early in the season like the whole team did.  He was not nearly as bad as Bullock the first two months, and was starting to pick it up when he got hurt.  He was one of our best players the last two playoffs and would have been helpful for this one.

We’ll never know.

[mvossman]

Can’t imagine they would.  That’s the issue with the idea of keeping our core six.  We have just about nothing to trade outside of those six and picks.  We don’t even have meaningful expiring contracts outside of Powell.  

It will be difficult to get someone who might be our 3rd/4th best player if we aren’t willing to put one of our top six in the mix.  Otherwise, we are simply talking about trying to add a useful seventh guy.  Don’t get me wrong.  I see value in that (have been arguing the need for one more guy for two seasons prior to this).  But I suspect such an outcome will feel a little uninspiring to most around here.

I don't think there is that big a difference between 4th and 7th best on this team.  I see the following tiers:

Superstar: Luka
Playoff starter:  Brunson, Dorian
Playoff rotation:  Dinwiddie, Bullock, Maxi, THJ
Regular depth:  Powell, Bertans, Green, Frank

We don't have the assets to go after a playoff starter level player unless we trade for an over priced one like Tobias or Hayward

But I think we could find a center that falls into that rotation category.  Between the pick, the TPE and multiple expiring contracts somebody like Holmes should be getable.  I would prefer not to spend the pick to get that player, but we have to make that call before we know what might be available on the tax MLE market.

Also notice that I have 7 guys in the top three tiers.  If we don't send THJ our in a trade, he would provide much needed depth at the wing.  That plus a functional starting center would go a long way and you have your 8 guys.

I feel like we keep forgetting that we have a core 7.  Timmy was a key piece in the playoffs last two years.  There were struggles early this season, but I feel like Kidd would have figured out how to make it work.  He is the piece we would be most willing to send out in a trade due to fit concerns, but if we don't send him out

[mvossman]

We’ll never know.

We might.  If we don't move him this offseason we will see how he progresses in Kidd's system next season.

[Jakeospikez]

Boy I hope this idea that “we could have won it all in 2022 except for ______” doesn’t become part of the narrative around here.  We finished exactly where our talent allowed us to finish…possibly higher.  We didn’t have nearly the depth to compete against GS and the series wasn’t that close (and they were missing an exceptional on-ball defender in Payton).  

Do we need upgrades AND some additional depth…absolutely.  Should we have been adding some of that while we were dicking around the two summers prior to the Bullock summer…yes.  Did Powell’s MLE contract (essentially) somehow prevent us from doing some move we would have otherwise done?  I don’t see it.

You're right, the Powell extension alone is not the reason for not winning a title during Luka's rookie deal. Mostly me being reactionary. It's still been a huge, immovable anchor for years though gobbling up cap and a roster slot cause almost no other teams would want a 1 dimensional roll-specialist PF that only fits with a rare stretch 5. Still confused how the FO thought it was a good idea to pay like 30% more for that than Maxi. Failing to properly use cap space plus failure to find a true complimentary big when "which big to play with KP" was the hottest topic are prolly the biggest mistakes. The KP deal ended up really bad too, but at least that resulted in Dinwiddie who was huge this run. JGreen still TBD based on development or if he's flipped for other assets.

It was a ton of mistakes by the FO over the past few years that led to having a 3x 1st team all NBA player on his rookie deal with the best result of losing 4-1 in the WCF. 3x 1st team all NBA on a rookie deal is like a once in a lifetime thing so failing to capitalize on that is something those guys get to hold on their resume. I don't really care about whether the team wins a championship or not, I mostly just contribute here because I think it's funny seeing random casual fans be better than people getting paid millions to build a team. They hit big on Brunson tho I'll give em that one.

There's hope though. The KP deal was really the 1st thing that's happened over the past few years where the FO made a bold move that casual fans saw as bad, but they were correct. Dinwiddie was brought up as a potential target this past offseason a few times and I was kinda on the fence thinking it could maybe work, but the FO actually did their homework and made a projection that was correct. This is something that finally makes me go, ok good job, they're better than casuals and are actually earning their salary.

Something going forward that should really further impress the fans is Nico using his relationships & connections to convince someone like Jalen Smith to play here for the TPMLE and make them more money down the road. The Donnie regime never really convinced anyone that it would be a good idea to play here and only got reclamation projects. After seeing this video of Turner gushing over Luka's pass to Maxi over 3 guys, it's pretty obvious bigs want to play with him and should be poking their agents to try and get deals done.

https://twitter.com/pandahank41/status/1...5618251776

[Not an evil robot]

I don't think there is that big a difference between 4th and 7th best on this team.  I see the following tiers:

Superstar: Luka
Playoff starter:  Brunson, Dorian
Playoff rotation:  Dinwiddie, Bullock, Maxi, THJ
Regular depth:  Powell, Bertans, Green, Frank

We don't have the assets to go after a playoff starter level player unless we trade for an over priced one like Tobias or Hayward

But I think we could find a center that falls into that rotation category.  Between the pick, the TPE and multiple expiring contracts somebody like Holmes should be getable.  I would prefer not to spend the pick to get that player, but we have to make that call before we know what might be available on the tax MLE market.

Also notice that I have 7 guys in the top three tiers.  If we don't send THJ our in a trade, he would provide much needed depth at the wing.  That plus a functional starting center would go a long way and you have your 8 guys.

I feel like we keep forgetting that we have a core 7.  Timmy was a key piece in the playoffs last two years.  There were struggles early this season, but I feel like Kidd would have figured out how to make it work.  He is the piece we would be most willing to send out in a trade due to fit concerns, but if we don't send him out

To me it feels like outside Luka, we’ve got one definite starter (DFS), two starters-ish (Brunson, Bullock), one definite rotation (Maxi), one rotation-ish (Dinwiddie), and one wild-card (THJ).

To make those pieces to fit the optimal roles, we’re “just” missing a definite starter. If we want to stay small - a big3&D wing. If we want to size up, a small-ball center type. The challenge is getting either without creating another hole.

Ignoring contracts, chemistry, and the like - I think the best immediate  fit around Luka is swapping Brunson for the player above, moving Dinwiddie into the starting line-up, and backfilling that 6th man type role. That’s very unlikely though for the reasons I was just ignoring.

Honestly if we’re completely theory-crafting,  although I love his personality and he’s a huge success story, I’d swap Brunson for more of an equivalently talented FVV-mold instead (plus add the player I mentioned). Luka may improve on defense but he’s likely never going to be a net positive there and Brunson is already maxing out his ability on that end of the floor given his physical limitations.

In the playoffs being forced to “hide” two starters is not ideal. GSW lineup works so well because Curry is the only weak link to target and even then he’s capable enough (the target I’d set for Luka)

[VintagePejav2]

Is Myles Turner still with Duffy/BDA?

That plus the expiring contract… Dallas has to circle back to it.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think there is that big a difference between 4th and 7th best on this team.  I see the following tiers:

Superstar: Luka
Playoff starter:  Brunson, Dorian
Playoff rotation:  Dinwiddie, Bullock, Maxi, THJ
Regular depth:  Powell, Bertans, Green, Frank

We don't have the assets to go after a playoff starter level player unless we trade for an over priced one like Tobias or Hayward

But I think we could find a center that falls into that rotation category. 

Also notice that I have 7 guys in the top three tiers.  If we don't send THJ our in a trade, he would provide much needed depth at the wing.  That plus a functional starting center would go a long way and you have your 8 guys.

I feel like we keep forgetting that we have a core 7.  Timmy was a key piece in the playoffs last two years.  There were struggles early this season, but I feel like Kidd would have figured out how to make it work.  He is the piece we would be most willing to send out in a trade due to fit concerns, but if we don't send him out

I like your tiers.  I used the core-six nomenclature as it has become a popular go-to around here.  But THJ definitely belongs where you put him.  When I spoke of the difficulty of adding a 4th best player, I was envisioning someone on the same tier as you’ve put Brunson and DFS.  I just don’t see how we get that without giving up someone’s sacred cow (but not Cow’s sacred cow).  

I keep saying I’ve got this long post I intend to put up at some point, but one of the things I point out is rotation minutes get cramped pretty quick as Hardaway returns.  Normal regular season minutes for THJ, DFS, Reggie and the 3 ball-handlers wipe out all 1, 2 and 3 minutes and most of the minutes at the 4.  That’s before we give Maxi some kind of load at one of the big spots.  No time to get into the weeds right now, but if you add a real starting center to the mix, then there is very little time for any of Powell, Bertans, Green or Frank and the time available probably best suits Bertans.  A playoff rotation with someone like Turner would probably be:

Turner/Maxi
DFS/Maxi
Reggie/THJ
Brunson/SD
Luka/SD

You probably need some Maxi insurance.  You don’t really have any time outside of injuries to develop Green and Frank.  But, the question is can you get someone at Turner’s level with discards and a pick or two?  If not, would you be willing to give up one of your “playoff rotation” guys for Turner?  

You’ve already said yes to THJ.  I think it more likely another team would ask for Reggie or Maxi.  My point is if you have a shot at someone who is an obvious “Playoff Starter”, you can’t take any of the guys on the “Playoff Rotation” list off the table.  I personally think Reggie is the easiest to replace given the return of THJ and the fact that you already have two younger guys on the roster who are good defenders.  If Indy says no to FG’s Powell based offer, I wouldn’t be the least bit afraid of substituting Reggie for Powell (and adding Chriss to make the matching work).  It just balances out the roster better.

[loki]

I think Indy has to at least consider an expiring+Green+1st offer if Turner exerts some pressure on them. I wouldn't include a rotation player like Maxi or Reggie in that deal. They don't fit the Pacers timeline anyway.

The problem is, I could see teams like Brooklyn or Milwaukee offering a better pick. Does including Josh Green give Dallas a leg up? I doubt it. Would a future protected 1st get it done? Maybe.

[Jommybone]

I think Indy has to at least consider an expiring+Green+1st offer if Turner exerts some pressure on them. I wouldn't include a rotation player like Maxi or Reggie in that deal. They don't fit the Pacers timeline anyway.

The problem is, I could see teams like Brooklyn or Milwaukee offering a better pick. Does including Josh Green give Dallas a leg up? I doubt it. Would a future protected 1st get it done? Maybe.

I would seriously expect Dwight Powell to be what Indy covets most. Call me crazy, but a vet who can start or willingly ride the bench, knows the system, scores efficiently, hustles always, puts in the work . . . . That’s what the Pacers need for the rebuild. 

Pretty sure MT picks his next team though. That’s where the leverage lies.

[Jakeospikez]

To me it feels like outside Luka, we’ve got one definite starter (DFS), two starters-ish (Brunson, Bullock), one definite rotation (Maxi), one rotation-ish (Dinwiddie), and one wild-card (THJ).

To make those pieces to fit the optimal roles, we’re “just” missing a definite starter. If we want to stay small - a big3&D wing. If we want to size up, a small-ball center type. The challenge is getting either without creating another hole.

Ignoring contracts, chemistry, and the like - I think the best immediate  fit around Luka is swapping Brunson for the player above, moving Dinwiddie into the starting line-up, and backfilling that 6th man type role. That’s very unlikely though for the reasons I was just ignoring.

Honestly if we’re completely theory-crafting,  although I love his personality and he’s a huge success story, I’d swap Brunson for more of an equivalently talented FVV-mold instead (plus add the player I mentioned). Luka may improve on defense but he’s likely never going to be a net positive there and Brunson is already maxing out his ability on that end of the floor given his physical limitations.

In the playoffs being forced to “hide” two starters is not ideal. GSW lineup works so well because Curry is the only weak link to target and even then he’s capable enough (the target I’d set for Luka)

Think it's already been gone over a lot here but a S&T with Brunson is not easy to accomplish. I think it's best to sign JB into tax after trading for a big + signing another quality player with TPMLE and running it back at least one more time. If it goes really terribly, then you can move JB who has solidified himself as a strong asset in this league. I doubt there is much that would change that outside of a bad injury.

[mvossman]

I like your tiers.  I used the core-six nomenclature as it has become a popular go-to around here.  But THJ definitely belongs where you put him.  When I spoke of the difficulty of adding a 4th best player, I was envisioning someone on the same tier as you’ve put Brunson and DFS.  I just don’t see how we get that without giving up someone’s sacred cow (but not Cow’s sacred cow).  

I keep saying I’ve got this long post I intend to put up at some point, but one of the things I point out is rotation minutes get cramped pretty quick as Hardaway returns.  Normal regular season minutes for THJ, DFS, Reggie and the 3 ball-handlers wipe out all 1, 2 and 3 minutes and most of the minutes at the 4.  That’s before we give Maxi some kind of load at one of the big spots.  No time to get into the weeds right now, but if you add a real starting center to the mix, then there is very little time for any of Powell, Bertans, Green or Frank and the time available probably best suits Bertans.  A playoff rotation with someone like Turner would probably be:

Turner/Maxi
DFS/Maxi
Reggie/THJ
Brunson/SD
Luka/SD

You probably need some Maxi insurance.  You don’t really have any time outside of injuries to develop Green and Frank.  But, the question is can you get someone at Turner’s level with discards and a pick or two?  If not, would you be willing to give up one of your “playoff rotation” guys for Turner?  

You’ve already said yes to THJ.  I think it more likely another team would ask for Reggie or Maxi.  My point is if you have a shot at someone who is an obvious “Playoff Starter”, you can’t take any of the guys on the “Playoff Rotation” list off the table.  I personally think Reggie is the easiest to replace given the return of THJ and the fact that you already have two younger guys on the roster who are good defenders.  If Indy says no to FG’s Powell based offer, I wouldn’t be the least bit afraid of substituting Reggie for Powell (and adding Chriss to make the matching work).  It just balances out the roster better.

If we are trading for a guy like Turner, I am more open to sending out Bullock because of huge bonus Turner brings to the defense.  Then you replace Bullock starter minutes with THJ who is much more dynamic offensively.  You hope that Green/Frank can make up for the missing Bullock defense, but likely you are still looking to get that 2 way wing the following offseason.  I could live with this route.

[VintagePejav2]

As much as I like Turner, I’m not particularly interested in generating that hole in perimeter defense again that losing Bullock would create.

[mvossman]

To me it feels like outside Luka, we’ve got one definite starter (DFS), two starters-ish (Brunson, Bullock), one definite rotation (Maxi), one rotation-ish (Dinwiddie), and one wild-card (THJ).

To make those pieces to fit the optimal roles, we’re “just” missing a definite starter. If we want to stay small - a big3&D wing. If we want to size up, a small-ball center type. The challenge is getting either without creating another hole.

Ignoring contracts, chemistry, and the like - I think the best immediate  fit around Luka is swapping Brunson for the player above, moving Dinwiddie into the starting line-up, and backfilling that 6th man type role. That’s very unlikely though for the reasons I was just ignoring.

Honestly if we’re completely theory-crafting,  although I love his personality and he’s a huge success story, I’d swap Brunson for more of an equivalently talented FVV-mold instead (plus add the player I mentioned). Luka may improve on defense but he’s likely never going to be a net positive there and Brunson is already maxing out his ability on that end of the floor given his physical limitations.

In the playoffs being forced to “hide” two starters is not ideal. GSW lineup works so well because Curry is the only weak link to target and even then he’s capable enough (the target I’d set for Luka)

I'm not sure why Brunson is "starter-ish"?  I think he has been scoring roughly 20 points a game since he started regularly, and that includes the playoffs.  In fact I believe he is the number 6 scorer in the playoffs.  That's "starter-ish"?

There are all kinds of issues with trying to S&T Brunson and it will likely not be for a great return.  We would be better off signing him and trading later if necessary.

[Not an evil robot]

Think it's already been gone over a lot here but a S&T with Brunson is not easy to accomplish. I think it's best to sign JB into tax after trading for a big + signing another quality player with TPMLE and running it back at least one more time. If it goes really terribly, then you can move JB who has solidified himself as a strong asset in this league. I doubt there is much that would change that outside of a bad injury.

I'm not sure why Brunson is "starter-ish"?  I think he has been scoring roughly 20 points a game since he started regularly, and that includes the playoffs.  In fact I believe he is the number 6 scorer in the playoffs.  That's "starter-ish"?

There are all kinds of issues with trying to S&T Brunson and it will likely not be for a great return.  We would be better off signing him and trading later if necessary.

I may not have made the caveat clear enough when I called it "theory craft". Completely recognize in reality a S&T is highly unlikely and hard to make profitable for the Mavs. We're locked into signing him, assuming he's interested, because any other outcome is much, much worse from a talent perspective. Agreed!

Looking at RAPTOR for the full season, DFS is #89 by net and Brunson is #62. WAR ranking is a bit higher for both, although still in Brunson's favor. IIRC that's a counting stat that tilts the direction of players who are available (and both played the higher end of average minutes in the league). Brunson is the #18 playoff scorer by average; he's probably much higher in total points but again, counting stats tilt towards those with more appearances. Fair point though, I probably should have both Brunson and DFS in the same category - likely both starter-ish for me.

More generally, I think he's not the ideal fit to maximize Luka in the playoffs. He plays a very similar iso-heavy game (which I think limits both his additive qualities and the diversity of our offense, meaning schemes that shut down one are likely effective against the other) and he's a slight negative on the defensive end (where I think we need more length and athleticism because Luka will probably top out at neutral on that end).

We're likely going to see Brunson for the next few years so I'm rooting for him, but again in "theory craft" land - I want someone who's more like a +1 OFF, +1 DEF player next to Luka than a +2.5 OFF, -.5 DEF Brunson. That's not to say Brunson isn't talented, but wherever possible I'm solving for synergy with our superstar when it comes to playoffs. That's about the only way to make a Luka + "role players" work at a championship level.

[Chicagojk]

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/...39393?s=20&t=QW_kEYW7FMolgcIeu48vUw

https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...56679?s=20&t=sV_HG82HdE6EIFCd-TU_8g

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1530...07809?s=20&t=8r27EI_FuG440wXyb14arQ