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I was right, Kamm was wrong (ab Gobert)
#41
(05-04-2022, 07:10 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I totally agree with this. I also think offers are not going to take the shape of something Utah will want in return though, which is why I think their best path to stay relevant is to trade Mitchell. I said earlier I think a package that included either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Dejuante Murray would give Rudy some of the perimeter defense he needs and if he and one of those two could click on offense…look out!

Interesting.   I am curious what type of offers Utah would get for Mitchell.  If high, then maybe keeping Gobert could be the best route.   SGA seems too high for me and not sure Mitchell would be thrilled in OKC.   Maybe the same with San Antonio but Murray could be attractive to Utah.  Could Murray plus another young starter from SA be something for Utah?   They still seem like they need to find one more solid to good player.  BTW, the Mavs catch a lot of flack for passing on Bey, Bane and Maxey and justifiably so.  But Utah took a Center from Kansas before Bane and I don't know if that Center is even on the playoff roster???    Bane would look really nice on Utah right now.
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#42
(05-04-2022, 07:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Not to pick on you, but I think you are answering the wrong question.  It seems largely accepted that many here would trade our trash for an overpaid "elite defensive center".  I mean why wouldn't we.  He's enough of a difference maker to win us a championship.  The better question is what do we have to give up to beat the bids of other teams.  Utah doesn't have to take our trash.  There will be other bidders.  An eventual package, if we end up going there, will be more painful than what is being discussed here.

I think the better question is whether we are willing to give up two picks and at least one of our core players...probably from among Brunson (in a 3 way), DFS and Maxi.  Otherwise, Rudy is in Charlotte, Atlanta or Golden State next year.  Those teams will be offering more than THJ/Powell and a late first.

Exactly, and to add to it... If Gobert does clash with Luka, like Gobert seems to do with every player in the NBA, it will no doubt cost the Mavs more assets to move him and his 40M+ down the line.

I don't think he's the sole difference to the Mavs winning a championship and for that reason the risks (and there are many) simply aren't worth it.
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#43
(05-04-2022, 07:21 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Beat me to it.  I think the most likely path to Gobert would be using Brunson's outgoing S&T to NY as part of the salary.  We need to get to $30.5mm in outgoing and Brunson can count $10-$13 million of that.  Add THJ (or Maxi and Bullock) and we've hit the mark.  From there, add our 2025 pick and some of the assets NY is giving up for Brunson (our 23 pick with protections lifted and enough players to match Brunson's incoming salary...probably includes Noel or Robinson and some of their youngsters).  Depending on which NY players we are talking about, we may be starting to get there.  If Robinson is included, Utah would need to end up under the Apron, but I think that is doable.  You don't get a top 20 player, even an overpaid one, without feeling some pain.

Good thinking.

I am team keep Jalen.   On other hand, I think the Mavs need to think BIG.  That doesn't mean blow up it, but at some point they need to find their all in move.   I hope Jalen stays in Dallas though.

I have been burned way too much with the Mavs.  When I read the above and the complexities, I just envision how many ways the Mavs would screw up a step along the way to make a deal like the above happen Smile
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#44
(05-04-2022, 07:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think the better question is whether we are willing to give up two picks and at least one of our core players...probably from among Brunson (in a 3 way), DFS and Maxi.  Otherwise, Rudy is in Charlotte, Atlanta or Golden State next year.  Those teams will be offering more than THJ/Powell and a late first.


I'd be more than willing to part with Maxi for Rudy. Maxi's 30, and while an invaluable role player, he isn't a full-time starter like Rudy and I'm not sure why we're second guessing that choice.  

Things get a little harder when we get to JB and DFS. To me, DFS can only be traded for a superstar. His impact and value on court is too great for anything less. Brunson I'm more willing to hear offers depending on the return. Can't send him out without replacing what he can do at least somewhat.

I just disagree that there's going to be a strong market for Rudy. His salary makes trade matching difficult for any contender. Going through what each of those team's can offer, they all have their warts. Any GSW deal has to include Wiggins which is just as unappetizing as any other bloated contract. Plus, are they even interested? Seems like GSW name is getting thrown out more by podcasters/aggregators than anything else. I can see it, but I'm at a wait-and-see approach there. 

ATL makes the most sense as they have a need and the players to make it work. Capela+Collins is as strong as it gets. Mavs can't compete with that. Just have to hope they aren't interested, and you have to wonder does replacing what Capela+Collins brings for Rudy truly make them better? Their fans are screaming for more ball handlers as MIA showed shutting down Trae makes ATL offense screech to a halt. Funnily enough they keep bringing up Brunson as an example.  

Any deal with CHA has to include Hayward which is one of the worst contracts in the league. Any Mavs deal automatically is better than whatever CHA can offer because of that. Unless Charlotte throws in Lamelo Ball or multiple unprotected firsts.

If we limit deals to 1-1, then of course the Mavs package is less than ideal. But I just can't see teams banging down UTA's door for Rudy after he's been exposed time and again. I'm only interested in Rudy because he's elite in the 2 skills this team needs very badly. I don't think many other contenders feel the same.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#45
(05-04-2022, 07:51 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: I'd be more than willing to part with Maxi for Rudy. Maxi's 30, and while an invaluable role player, he isn't a full-time starter like Rudy and I'm not sure why we're second guessing that choice.  

Things get a little harder when we get to JB and DFS. To me, DFS can only be traded for a superstar. His impact and value on court is too great for anything less. Brunson I'm more willing to hear offers depending on the return. Can't send him out without replacing what he can do at least somewhat.

I just disagree that there's going to be a strong market for Rudy. His salary makes trade matching difficult for any contender. Going through what each of those team's can offer, they all have their warts. Any GSW deal has to include Wiggins which is just as unappetizing as any other bloated contract. Plus, are they even interested? Seems like GSW name is getting thrown out more by podcasters/aggregators than anything else. I can see it, but I'm at a wait-and-see approach there. 

ATL makes the most sense as they have a need and the players to make it work. Capela+Collins is as strong as it gets. Mavs can't compete with that. Just have to hope they aren't interested, and you have to wonder does replacing what Capela+Collins brings for Rudy truly make them better? Their fans are screaming for more ball handlers as MIA showed shutting down Trae makes ATL offense screech to a halt. Funnily enough they keep bringing up Brunson as an example.  

Any deal with CHA has to include Hayward which is one of the worst contracts in the league. Any Mavs deal automatically is better than whatever CHA can offer because of that. Unless Charlotte throws in Lamelo Ball or multiple unprotected firsts.

If we limit deals to 1-1, then of course the Mavs package is less than ideal. But I just can't see teams banging down UTA's door for Rudy after he's been exposed time and again. I'm only interested in Rudy because he's elite in the 2 skills this team needs very badly. I don't think many other contenders feel the same.
I very strongly believe if Utah has to decide between trading Gobert for THJ/Powell/2022 first and trading Mitchell, their choice will be very clearly to trade Mitchell.
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#46
(05-04-2022, 08:03 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I very strongly believe if Utah has to decide between trading Gobert for THJ/Powell/2022 first and trading Mitchell, their choice will be very clearly to trade Mitchell.
I mean really? THJ is a Bogdanovic replacement and is younger. Powell replaces Gobert and gives them massive cap relief. 


I agree they need to add more than 1st to make it more appetizing, but I think that package CAN make sense for UTA.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#47
(05-03-2022, 11:38 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: I’m implying that THJ and Bertans are zero marginal product players on this roster, that Gobert is a top 10 all time interior defensive presence, and is a miles better than Powell (who’s not horrible and at least isn’t a ZMP). The Mavs might just slow down a team like Phoenix with defensive control of the paint.  It’s also difficult to get a player like Gobert. He’d have to basically force his way out.  So I’d have no illusions this trade is available, even if you throw in some other assets. My main point to those complaining about Rudy’s cost is to point out that we’re paying even more for a collection of overpaid, very low value players, unlike Gobert, who is a legitimate, occasional all star.


Ok, I can get behind all of that. 

And, I’m not trying to be argumentative here, either. It’s just that even WITH my agreement over the above, I’m still not willing to concede the “better off“ part. Maybe I just have post-traumatic stress over Porzingis, idk. Right now, being locked into drop coverage down the stretch of games because I am paying some center a max contract is pretty high on my “we might regret doing this” list. 

I know it’s ridiculous to think this way on one level, but I just can’t shake it.
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#48
(05-04-2022, 09:22 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Right now, being locked into drop coverage down the stretch of games because I am paying some center a max contract is pretty high on my “we might regret doing this” list. 


You're only locked into this type of coverage if you have a coach that doesn't have the balls to sit Gobert and go small. Contract size shouldn't (and if the coach is good doesn't) matter.

I remember when Shaq, D12, and several other centers were taken out of the majority of the quarter when hack-a-shaq was a thing. 

Hypothetically the Mavs can always go small with DFS/Luka/Bullock/Dinwiddie as the core. I'd include Brunson too but who knows if he's used to bring in Gobert.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#49
(05-04-2022, 09:30 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: You're only locked into this type of coverage if you have a coach that doesn't have the balls to sit Gobert and go small. Contract size shouldn't (and if the coach is good doesn't) matter.


Personally, I think it is futile to imagine any NBA coach having the power to sit a $40 million+ per season player and not catch major heat over it. It’s simply not something that’s going to happen in the modern day sport.

Further, if there is even the slightest chance that we’d want him to sit the player when the games matter most, why on earth are we hoping they bring him in at that price point?
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#50
(05-04-2022, 09:33 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Personally, I think it is futile to imagine any NBA coach having the power to sit a $40 million+ per season player and not catch major heat over it. It’s simply not something that’s going to happen in the modern day sport.


We've already seen it happen. Westbrook was benched multiple times in the 4th quarterduring the regular season, and Frank Vogel was thanked by the fans. 

Our very own RC benched Porzingis/reduced his role drastically in the playoffs to no one's ire. If anything the players get the flak for not being versatile enough. 


(05-04-2022, 09:33 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: Further, if there is even the slightest chance that we’d want him to sit the player when the games matter most, why on earth are we hoping they bring him in at that price point?


Because he can affect the other 36 minutes of the game drastically. Gives us different looks. Allows us to be more versatile as we can finally match opposing bigs. Just because we're getting Gobert doesn't mean the Mavs can't go small anymore. That's the beauty of having a 2 offensive creators above 6'6, and several 6'6 and above wings.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#51
(05-04-2022, 09:42 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: We've already seen it happen. Westbrook was benched multiple times in the 4th quarterduring the regular season, and Frank Vogel was thanked by the fans. 


Yeah and how did that work out for Vogel
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#52
(05-04-2022, 10:13 AM)Branduil Wrote: Yeah and how did that work out for Vogel


I mean are we blaming Vogel for the issues on the Lakers? Westbrook should've been benched. He was. Unfortunately they only had 39 year old retirement players to replace him. 

We're venturing off topic. The point is that if it makes sense to bench a player because of matchups then a coach shouldn't be afraid to do it.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#53
(05-04-2022, 10:44 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: I mean are we blaming Vogel for the issues on the Lakers?


No, but the Lakers are about to blame him, which is the point. 

I also disagree that this is off topic. I think if we're talking about Gobert, this pretty much IS the topic. Don't get me wrong - I don't disagree with your take on how he could be used positively, it's just that our experience with Porzingis really should serve as some type of warning about how easily it could go wrong. 

I know we're all wanting more of a defensive presence in the paint, but with the way these guards shoot nowadays, giving them clean looks off of screens after two dribbles and not even forcing them to make a single pass is more just as bad as having no resistance inside (which I feel is an overstatement of the Mavs' current weakness).
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#54
(05-04-2022, 11:58 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: I know we're all wanting more of a defensive presence in the paint, but with the way these guards shoot nowadays, giving them clean looks off of screens after two dribbles and not even forcing them to make a single pass is more just as bad as having no resistance inside (which I feel is an overstatement of the Mavs' current weakness).


Right but the stats say that Gobert routinely defends these shots well. How can we pin the defensive shortcomings of his turnstile guards on Gobert? 



(05-04-2022, 11:58 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: No, but the Lakers are about to blame him, which is the point. 


Just because a front office is doubling down on their mistakes doesn't mean what Vogel did was wrong. He shouldn't be fired. No one thought he deserved to be fired. Most of the media defended his choice to bench Russ. Vogel's firing is happening because the GM doesn't want to fire himself and someone has to be blamed. 

No coach is getting fired for benching Rudy in the playoffs when teams go small. It's the correct play. In fact Quinn Snyder is about to get fired because he DIDN'T do just that.
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#55
(05-04-2022, 12:44 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: No coach is getting fired for benching Rudy in the playoffs when teams go small. It's the correct play. In fact Quinn Snyder is about to get fired because he DIDN'T do just that.

If you have to bench any player that makes 40M+… my goodness.
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#56
(05-04-2022, 01:50 PM)Smitty Wrote: If you have to bench any player that makes 40M+… my goodness.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
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#57
(05-04-2022, 01:50 PM)Smitty Wrote: If you have to bench any player that makes 40M+… my goodness.

I'm not sure why we have to bench him?  Why not play him like Powell in those situations?  He has to hang in the paint on that Jazz team to cover for the other 4 guys.  His P&R and 3 point shooting defense rates really well.  I would also be curious to see what a Luka/Gobert combination does against small ball.
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#58
(05-04-2022, 02:50 PM)mvossman Wrote: I'm not sure why we have to bench him?  Why not play him like Powell in those situations?  He has to hang in the paint on that Jazz team to cover for the other 4 guys.  His P&R and 3 point shooting defense rates really well.  I would also be curious to see what a Luka/Gobert combination does against small ball.
Not to mention, all teams have the big guys that they’ll play as well. When the Clippers take Zubac out, you can play Gobert a couple extra minutes, then take him out to matchup small for small. I’ve been leaning on the side of not wanting Gobert because of his bad coordination on offense, but he does bring a lot to the defensive side. I mean earlier this year when we were talking about how bad KP was on the perimeter, someone posted a clip of Gobert being switched onto a guard and getting blown by, but he recovered for the block. It’s not like he can’t do it, I think it’s about him not being able to do it all game.
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#59
(05-04-2022, 03:20 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Not to mention, all teams have the big guys that they’ll play as well. When the Clippers take Zubac out, you can play Gobert a couple extra minutes, then take him out to matchup small for small. I’ve been leaning on the side of not wanting Gobert because of his bad coordination on offense, but he does bring a lot to the defensive side. I mean earlier this year when we were talking about how bad KP was on the perimeter, someone posted a clip of Gobert being switched onto a guard and getting blown by, but he recovered for the block. It’s not like he can’t do it, I think it’s about him not being able to do it all game.


Exactly!!!
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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#60
Gobert would probably get a Luka bump on the offensive end, but for as much money as he makes you need more than what he offers.  Even if you could land him inexpensively, and I doubt we could, it's a massive gamble taking on his contract as it would be really hard to get off of.  

2022-23:  $38,172,414
2023-24:  $41,000,000
2024-25:  $43,827,587
2025-26:  $46,655,173 (PO)


Assuming Jalen resigns in the neighborhood of $20,000,000, your core of Luka, Gobert, Jalen and DFS will be at $107,000.00 in '22-23.
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