NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over

[Chicagojk]

Here's another way of looking at this.  If you wait until the summer, you either lose one or both of JB and DFS, or you have $120mm committed multi-year to this five-some.  Is that a championship group?  Oh, BTW, there is another $30mm (taking you to $150mm) committed to Powell, Maxi and Bullock (though none of those are long term deals).  Does this seem realistic?  If not, what needs to change and to your point, when?

$35.7    Luka
$33.8    KP
$19.6    THJ
$20.0    Brunson
$12.0    DFS

This is to not take anything away from talking trades, but I haven't really liked what I have seen as realistic trade options for either Jalen or DFS.  Now if there is one available, I would certainly explore a trade even if I was giving up a favorite.   With that being said, it is my opinion the Mavs can't run from the tax.   They can't reduce their talent because they fear the tax.  Mark may need to pay the tax for a year or two.   They can't let past failures cause more failures in the future.   As we stand now, I have both Jalen and DFS above Bullock, Hardaway, Powell and even Maxi in importance to this team.   

When Mark resigned Luka, it was also a message they are going to try to compete every year for a title.   To back off of that because of the tax tells me all I would need to know about this franchise.  I get the tax is a serious thing and should be avoided if possible.  But not if that means reducing your talent.   

I am a firm believer this team can compete:
1) Luka
2) KP-  TBD if he is a #2 for a team or our team
3) X-  Player to be determined.  This player may also be a sneaky #2 on this list as well.  
4) Jalen
5) DFS

Plus good depth off the bench.   How do they find that X over the next year or two while also keeping solid depth?

[fifteenth]

For me, it would take one of the Knicks young prospects and a 2023 pick to get me to move Brunson.  Another prerequisite for trading JB is I would want to immediately turn my newfound freedom to trade picks into a star.  I like and value JB.  He does have some limitations and I'm also more concerned about losing him for nothing than most.  But, this isn't about JB to NY.  It is about JB to NY as a precursor to a bigger deal.    

My list of "prospects" starts with Toppin who is currently stuck behind Randle because they don't fit well together.  I love the Long Term fit with KP.  If you do that, then the picks for star deal needs to be for a ball-handling guard/wing.  I like Quickley and see him growing into a very good sixth man.  If you do that, then the picks for star deal can be for a big.  I wouldn't rule that out, but you have to tell me what the second deal is so I can check on the fit with KP.  I might put Reddish on this list of "prospects" based on upside, but he hasn't shown nearly as much as the other two yet.  Therefore, the backside of the deal has to be even better (note he and Simmons are Rich Paul guys...hmmm.  And, yes, there are ways to do this without aggregating Reddish).

THJ and Maxi get you to the money needed to match any star under $37.9mm and you can now trade up to 3 picks (22, 24 & 26) plus the pick swaps that have been included in recent trades for stars.  And now I've "given away" two sacred cows in JB and Maxi.  Of course, I've also gotten a "star" and a prospect from NY.  The question isn't what was given up.  The question is:

Is JB/Maxi/THJ plus two picks (net since you got back 2023) worth Toppin and (fill in the blank star)

Is JB/Maxi/ThJ plus two picks (net since you got back 2023) worth Quickley and (fill in the blank star)

If we are being objective, it is impossible to say yes or no until you know the name of the star and how they might fit with Luka and KP.

Kyrie and Toppin?

Siakam and Quickley?

Simmons and either?

Beal and Toppin?

Collins and Quickley (but you keep Maxi and one of the picks)?

Grant and Quickley (but you keep Maxi and only trade one pick)?

You're good, you. Those are at least options that you have to consider. If Brunson is leaving for a star, but the process takes two deals, do you have to make sure the two are contingent, or done as one, so you don't lose Brunson without the star coming back if the 2nd deal doesn't happen? Or would you trade Brunson just for the chance at adjusting your assets so that you can star shop moving forward?

[fifteenth]

just look at the league..talented, small guards with iffy defense who get +20 are seen as bad contracts(Mccollum for example..and he's a better player by a mile) ... 

I'm not sure that McCollum is better by a mile than what JB projects to be at the moment. JB is a much better point guard. Also, if the Mavs are able to field good defense with Brunson on the floor, then he may be able to play his role in a system well enough that he isn't a liability.

[fifteenth]

 If not, what needs to change and to your point, when?

$35.7    Luka
$33.8    KP
$19.6    THJ
$20.0    Brunson
$12.0    DFS

This is a great way to look at it! I don't have much confidence that I have this right,  but my preference is to move the NY contingent along to their next home.

But really, the answer probably is informed by who each of the above could net  in return as much as by who we want to send away.

[cow]

JB is great and all but I do think we tend to overrate him, especially when we discuss his value.  He's expiring, he'll be a UFA and he's going to want a THJ-like payday.   Should we trade him, those factors are going to reduce what get back.

On a related matter, the question I keep asking myself is "how many all star appearances do we think JB will have?".

[fifteenth]

JB is great and all but I do think we tend to overrate him, especially when we discuss his value.  He's expiring, he'll be a UFA and he's going to want a THJ-like payday.   Should we trade him, those factors are going to reduce what get back.

On a related matter, the question I keep asking myself is "how many all star appearances do we think JB will have?".

I have no idea if he ever makes an all star game. Has FVV made one? 

Re JB as expiring. If that makes him less valuable in a trade than he is as a player,  then I'd pay him what he's worth and sort out the team's cap health in other ways.

[ItsGoTime]

I have no idea if he ever makes an all star game. Has FVV made one? 

Re JB as expiring. If that makes him less valuable in a trade than he is as a player,  then I'd pay him what he's worth and sort out the team's cap health in other ways.

Problem is there are 3 guys already like the on the roster right now. KP, THJ and Powell. You want to add another one? 

Can’t keep overpaying guys and then say (edit: more appropriately worded…demonstrate) you won’t pay tax for this team MC!!!

[F Gump]

"I'd pay him what he's worth and sort out the team's cap health in other ways."

This ^ feels right.

My working analyzer on JB (and DFS) ideas is: "does this make the Mavs better?"

I see lots of ideas that move on from them, because of the possible contract(s), but I don't think those tend to end up with the Mavs being better, than they already are with them. For a team that's been way too low on talent, and needs to get more, it's not wise to intentionally go backwards in talent. We should have learned over the last decade that finding/adding good talent  is really hard, so you'd better hold onto what you have if you finally get some, unless you can get back some talent even better by letting go.

[juanc]

Reading the comments,it feels like KP has a contract till 2030,...

Powell expires after next season, KP has a PO after next season(if he declines, the Mavs have 50mil in capspace, if he takes his PO, the Mavs have a 40mil expiring contract and all the picks to trade, if they don't make a trade now.)
The two main antagonists gone... Mavs fans would probably throw a parade.

[fifteenth]

Problem is there are 3 guys already like the on the roster right now. KP, THJ and Powell. You want to add another one? 

I don't want to overpay. And I don't want to lose talent that's up for a contract based on past mistakes.

I want to pay Brunson what he's worth and deal with any other cap issues, or problem contracts in other ways.

And I have no problem with Cuban paying tax! :-D

[omahen]

Here's another way of looking at this.  If you wait until the summer, you either lose one or both of JB and DFS, or you have $120mm committed multi-year to this five-some.  Is that a championship group?  Oh, BTW, there is another $30mm (taking you to $150mm) committed to Powell, Maxi and Bullock (though none of those are long term deals).  Does this seem realistic?  If not, what needs to change and to your point, when?

$35.7    Luka
$33.8    KP
$19.6    THJ
$20.0    Brunson
$12.0    DFS

I would definitely look to make a deal at TDL. Of course no guarantee it is possible, but I would look hard for it. I think we had two seasons of proof this team lacks talent and I think Kidd thinks that way too, based on his latest interview from a day or two ago (published on this board somewhere). I agree with Chicago that Mavs might only be one serious guy away. The question is if that guy needs to be a star or is it enough that he is a (very) good player. I think a (very) good player is enough. I also think Mavs don't have the assets for a star player at the TDL anyway. So I would continue hunting for that (very) good player.

As I have said before, PF is the weakest position. Maxi is a nice guy, but he is a role player. Also often injured. Out of the players listed, THJ is the obvious odd man out imho. Of course assuming that Brunson and DFS want to stay, which Mavs should know at this point. So I would try to use THJ and keep (most) of the rest. If Mavs think their contention window is now, than they have to keep as much of player talent as possible. Picks are the assets that should be used to incentivise teams. If they are to pay tax, it should at least be "good" tax for competing team. The five players above are not a contender team, imho. 

Very high end targets would be Collins or Simons. I doubt Mavs could get into them as they lack good players and serious assets.
Mid tier targets are Grant, Wood (not sure about the fit on defense). I was thinking about Harris, but his contract is just too big. I would pay the two first rounder price for Grant (or Green and 1 FRP, if Detroit could be convinced). 
Lower tier targets could be RoCo, Nance, Young. I wouldn't pay a FRP for any of them, they are not that good. More of a money saving move for Mavs than really lifting them to contender level. Their teams would want expiring contracts and assets, but I think there could be teams willing to take THJ contract for expiring contracts (New Orleans example I used a couple of days ago).

Another option you mentioned several times before is PJ Washington. Young, one more year on a cost controlled deal. Problem is, Charlotte has very little need to trade him. As I said he is cost controlled for one more year and they have his restricted status afterwards, so they can just as easily keep him and trade him any time in next season or even in the summer of 2024 in a SnT. The one need Charlotte really has is the center and Mavs don't really have anything decent to offer, unless we go into KP for Hayward and PJ discussions, which is not my goal at this point. One hope would be the thing New York did with Redish, who wanted a bigger opportunity he couldn't get in Atlanta. So the price in that case would be a FRP (we don't even need to offer salary back, since we have the TE). I kind of doubt Charlotte would accept 2027 FRP for PJ, though. Seems more like a draft night deal, unless Charlotte would be enamored with Green and a couple of second rounders.

[SleepingHero]

I know nothing about contracts and economic part of the NBA. Does anyone have an overview of how much players earn etc. where this is explained? Is 20 mill a lot or? How much does THJ earn? To me Brunson is all star level skill player, we are not in playoffs without Brunson.

Before the 2012 lockout and the crazy TV deal in 2016, 20MM was reserved for all-NBA/all-star shoe-ins. 

I'll use Dirk and Kobe as examples. 

Dirk didn't get a salary of over 20 mil till 2011. Kobe didn't get that till 2009. Think about that!

Nowadays 20-25mil is basically the inflexion point between really good player and all-star. At 20mil (+/- 1 mil) you're a good player thats a valued contributor. Once you're at 24-25 mil you're getting into 3rd star level territory.  Anything above 35 mil you're a supposed superstar. 

Some guys currently getting paid 20mil:
Jarret Allen
Jerami Grant
Gallinari
Mike Conley
Brogdon

Of course these aren't hard or fast rules. Zach Lavine and Sabonis are getting paid 19.5 mil, while Gary Harris is getting 20mil. Tobias Harris is getting paid 36 mil while Devin Booker is getting 31. 

But these are the general guidelines at least for me when I view salary. Going into the season I would've said 20 mil is an insane overpay for Brunson. After what he showed and how well he's working in the starting lineup, he's basically replacing what THJ has given us and also brought better ball movement, so I'd be fine giving Brunson 4/80 (as long as we move off THJ).

[burekemde]

Before the 2012 lockout and the crazy TV deal in 2016, 20MM was reserved for all-NBA/all-star shoe-ins. 

I'll use Dirk and Kobe as examples. 

Dirk didn't get a salary of over 20 mil till 2011. Kobe didn't get that till 2009. Think about that!

Nowadays 20-25mil is basically the inflexion point between really good player and all-star. At 20mil (+/- 1 mil) you're a good player thats a valued contributor. Once you're at 24-25 mil you're getting into 3rd star level territory.  Anything above 35 mil you're a supposed superstar. 

Some guys currently getting paid 20mil:
Jarret Allen
Jerami Grant
Gallinari
Mike Conley
Brogdon

Of course these aren't hard or fast rules. Zach Lavine and Sabonis are getting paid 19.5 mil, while Gary Harris is getting 20mil. Tobias Harris is getting paid 36 mil while Devin Booker is getting 31. 

But these are the general guidelines at least for me when I view salary. Going into the season I would've said 20 mil is an insane overpay for Brunson. After what he showed and how well he's working in the starting lineup, he's basically replacing what THJ has given us and also brought better ball movement, so I'd be fine giving Brunson 4/80 (as long as we move off THJ).

SH thx a lot for the great explanation. If 20 mill is what you pay for someone between a great player and all-star, Brunson sounds is like worth it. He is definitely there and one of major reasons for our solid record keeping us competive. Brunson desrves the 20 mill a lot more than THJ. I agree moving on from THJ is the key.

[Mikelo]

No way would I give 20 million to Brunson no matter how good he is...he's very small and dubious defense, he's also not an elite 3 shooter...the priority should be trying to maximize our superstar and the Luka/Brunson combo has too many question marks ..(Let's not forget that in the last Playoffs he was literally unplayable)..Jalen has the roof of an elite 6 man, or put up crazy numbers on a bad team..it's a shame, because he is very talented, but the lack athleticism/size limit him...I see Green more as a long-term fit.. I would pay him what Rose/Clarkson got...if he wants more...change it... Pull in $ 20 will be seen, as Tim ... an absurd overpayment

[KillerLeft]

I don't have a low opinion of Brunson. Just gauging what you guys think his trade value is compared to what fans of other teams think what they will trade for him.

I view him as the second most valuable player for the Mavs right now. But, I also read about how he will be an UFA and will probably demand 20M/year contract. The reality is, the Mavs will probably would have to make a decision about his situation very soon. One choice is to get something in return for him instead of risking losing him for nothing. So, I am gauging what you think wpuld be the most realistic trade for him.

Of course, if we can trade him for Jaylen Brown or Anthony Davis, we would surely love that. But, that will no be realistic.

Ok, I'm with you on ALL of the above. We've talked it through a lot around here, and I think the majority of us see the situation the way you do. 

Only...there's no universe in which IQ (who I like as a prospect) is the return for Brunson. Brunson is worth a much more established player in my view. He might be a future all star, tbh, so I think if they deal him they'll be able to set their sights much higher. 

Yeah, not Jaylen Brown high, for sure, but I'd say the bar is MUCH higher than IQ. IQ and pick(s) maybe.

[cjeter24]

For me, it would take one of the Knicks young prospects and a 2023 pick to get me to move Brunson.  Another prerequisite for trading JB is I would want to immediately turn my newfound freedom to trade picks into a star.  I like and value JB.  He does have some limitations and I'm also more concerned about losing him for nothing than most.  But, this isn't about JB to NY.  It is about JB to NY as a precursor to a bigger deal.    

My list of "prospects" starts with Toppin who is currently stuck behind Randle because they don't fit well together.  I love the Long Term fit with KP.  If you do that, then the picks for star deal needs to be for a ball-handling guard/wing.  I like Quickley and see him growing into a very good sixth man.  If you do that, then the picks for star deal can be for a big.  I wouldn't rule that out, but you have to tell me what the second deal is so I can check on the fit with KP.  I might put Reddish on this list of "prospects" based on upside, but he hasn't shown nearly as much as the other two yet.  Therefore, the backside of the deal has to be even better (note he and Simmons are Rich Paul guys...hmmm.  And, yes, there are ways to do this without aggregating Reddish).

THJ and Maxi get you to the money needed to match any star under $37.9mm and you can now trade up to 3 picks (22, 24 & 26) plus the pick swaps that have been included in recent trades for stars.  And now I've "given away" two sacred cows in JB and Maxi.  Of course, I've also gotten a "star" and a prospect from NY.  The question isn't what was given up.  The question is:

Is JB/Maxi/THJ plus two picks (net since you got back 2023) worth Toppin and (fill in the blank star)

Is JB/Maxi/ThJ plus two picks (net since you got back 2023) worth Quickley and (fill in the blank star)

If we are being objective, it is impossible to say yes or no until you know the name of the star and how they might fit with Luka and KP.

Kyrie and Toppin?

Siakam and Quickley?

Simmons and either?

Beal and Toppin?

Collins and Quickley (but you keep Maxi and one of the picks)?

Grant and Quickley (but you keep Maxi and only trade one pick)?

JB for 2 1st rounders from the Knicks including the 2023 pick is my favorite trade by far. I really don't care for any of their young guys. Give me their pick this year lottery protected of course. 

OF course you would love to trade them for a star immediately after but do to the time frame I think the most likely scenario would be hanging onto the picks and making a move at the draft...

If you do wait until the draft, you can trade 3 1st round picks with the deal I proposed. 22 NY 1st, the rights to 22 DAL pick, 2023 DAL 1st. heck you could even go give them a 2025 pick for a total of 4 1sts. Add in Josh Greenand I think you have an elite trade package that not many teams can match. The question is who and you have a narrow window to make that trade happen. But gives you lot more options than just hanging onto Brunson.

[cjeter24]

I don´t know if Cuban wants or can pay the tax.
But if not, talking about staying competitive after this year is mood, so I would just take this team into one more postseason.

And if we really would have to save money, I would do it on THJ rather than DFS or Brunson.

The issue of just taking the team into the postseason and seeing what happens is that no matter what you do... You are going to have a huge decrease in value in DFS or Brunson. Either they leave for nothing, sign here for much bigger deals, or they are involved in SNT for less than what you would have gotten if you traded them in season. 

You think this core is good enough to win anything in the postseason? I think we have a good start but it's still a long way from being a playoff team to being a legit contender and even a Championship winning team. IMO this team isn't remotely close.

[cjeter24]

"I'd pay him what he's worth and sort out the team's cap health in other ways."

This ^ feels right.

My working analyzer on JB (and DFS) ideas is: "does this make the Mavs better?"

I see lots of ideas that move on from them, because of the possible contract(s), but I don't think those tend to end up with the Mavs being better, than they already are with them. For a team that's been way too low on talent, and needs to get more, it's not wise to intentionally go backwards in talent. We should have learned over the last decade that finding/adding good talent  is really hard, so you'd better hold onto what you have if you finally get some, unless you can get back some talent even better by letting go.

And this is the best argument for not trading JB or DFS... You risk having a significant talent downgrade unless it's a simultaneous deal. That's what makes the situation so tricky IMO because you clearly have something positive building. 

I lean to only trading Brunson unless DFS has unexpectedly high value. Covington was traded at the 2020 draft for 2 1sts just barely over a year ago.You'd think DFS so its very interesting what his value might be. 

Maybe there is a happy medium where you can get Kemba or Schroeder or some other PG that fits into the TPE that can score well and fill some of the void of losing Brunson. Perhaps replacement scoring PG plus some other small upgrade at the deadline elsewhere on the roster keeps the roster close to the current level and you cash on your assets at the draft or FA.

[mvossman]

I would definitely look to make a deal at TDL. Of course no guarantee it is possible, but I would look hard for it. I think we had two seasons of proof this team lacks talent and I think Kidd thinks that way too, based on his latest interview from a day or two ago (published on this board somewhere). I agree with Chicago that Mavs might only be one serious guy away. The question is if that guy needs to be a star or is it enough that he is a (very) good player. I think a (very) good player is enough. I also think Mavs don't have the assets for a star player at the TDL anyway. So I would continue hunting for that (very) good player.

As I have said before, PF is the weakest position. Maxi is a nice guy, but he is a role player. Also often injured. Out of the players listed, THJ is the obvious odd man out imho. Of course assuming that Brunson and DFS want to stay, which Mavs should know at this point. So I would try to use THJ and keep (most) of the rest. If Mavs think their contention window is now, than they have to keep as much of player talent as possible. Picks are the assets that should be used to incentivise teams. If they are to pay tax, it should at least be "good" tax for competing team. The five players above are not a contender team, imho. 

Very high end targets would be Collins or Simons. I doubt Mavs could get into them as they lack good players and serious assets.
Mid tier targets are Grant, Wood (not sure about the fit on defense). I was thinking about Harris, but his contract is just too big. I would pay the two first rounder price for Grant (or Green and 1 FRP, if Detroit could be convinced). 
Lower tier targets could be RoCo, Nance, Young. I wouldn't pay a FRP for any of them, they are not that good. More of a money saving move for Mavs than really lifting them to contender level. Their teams would want expiring contracts and assets, but I think there could be teams willing to take THJ contract for expiring contracts (New Orleans example I used a couple of days ago).

Another option you mentioned several times before is PJ Washington. Young, one more year on a cost controlled deal. Problem is, Charlotte has very little need to trade him. As I said he is cost controlled for one more year and they have his restricted status afterwards, so they can just as easily keep him and trade him any time in next season or even in the summer of 2024 in a SnT. The one need Charlotte really has is the center and Mavs don't really have anything decent to offer, unless we go into KP for Hayward and PJ discussions, which is not my goal at this point. One hope would be the thing New York did with Redish, who wanted a bigger opportunity he couldn't get in Atlanta. So the price in that case would be a FRP (we don't even need to offer salary back, since we have the TE). I kind of doubt Charlotte would accept 2027 FRP for PJ, though. Seems more like a draft night deal, unless Charlotte would be enamored with Green and a couple of second rounders.

I agree with a lot of this, but I am totally out on two firsts for Grant.  I think that guy is overrated.  Offensively he is a volume guy.  There are places where that makes sense (like Detroit), but when you already have Luka, KP and Brunson in the starting lineup, an inefficient volume scorer is not really what you are looking for.  I also think his defense is overrated.  He is long and athletic, and his versatility is useful, but his actual on court value has been basically average at every stop he has been.  Then you read stories about him wanting to be the number one option, and I just don't think he is going to be worth the cost.

[RedFlag41]

Maybe Jamahl Mosley likes THJ enough to trade Gary Harris for him.