2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[vfromlmf]

Sounds like KP could emerge from protocols today which means something must be done with Chriss. 

Anyone know what's up with WCS "personal reasons"?

[DanSchwartzgan]

RE: Stein's Report

Stein saying the Mavs are trying to get in on MT or JC is SUPER interesting to me. 

My gut says that means they have a KP trade lined up IF they can secure another big through another trade. I obviously could be dead wrong there and they could be trying to pair one of those guys WITH KP. 

@"DanSchwartzgan" can you remind me again on what you have seen with two big lineups this season? My gut says they suck, but didn't you highlight some stretches where they were quite successful?

If MT and JC were the same archetype, I might agree that there are obvious KP implications.  But, they are very different.  Instead, it looks to me like they are looking for an upgrade at the big spot next to KP.  MT would take you one direction (dramatically improved rim protection and more force than Powell provides).  JC would take you another direction.  Both make you younger.

Interesting timing on your question since DP/Maxi were almost a platoon against Memphis.  When they were out, Dallas mostly played Chriss as a single big with either DFS or Luka at PF.  Memphis didn't overlap Adams and JJJ, so Chriss as the single big was largely against lineups with Adams.  It worked as Maxi +19, Powell +18 and Chriss +9 were all highly effective.  It was basically an 8 man rotation with Bullock, THJ and Chriss off the bench alongside one of the guards and someone from among Green Dorian, Powell or Maxi.

As to your question...

The Powell/KP two man is +1.8 for the full season.  Our opinion is largely colored by the early part of the season.  11 games in the Powell/KP combo was -17.9.  There was pretty steady improvement the rest of November (11/11-11/30).  The combo for the full season through 11/30 was "up" to -10.4.  That improvement though was simply sucking less.  They were -9.5 during the stretch from 11/11-11/30.

From 11/11 until now they are +8.3 in 20 games.  The big turn happened on 12/1 when Hardaway left the starting lineup.  Powell and KP together are +15.9 since then.  The O-Rating is 116.8 and the D-Rating is 100.9...both fantastic.  I think the team figured this out as we've only seen THJ/KP/DP together in 2 of the 12 games all three were available since 12/1 and only for 13 minutes. 

What we all need to see is what do Powell/KP and Luka look like.  That trio only has 4 games together for a total of 49 minutes since 12/1 (they are +17.3 in that small sample).  DFS has played the most minutes with Powell and KP since 12/1 and those minutes are +16.5.  Only about 1/3 of the minutes KP and DFS have played since 12/1 have been without Powell.  NBA.com doesn't give you the single data point you want, but if the trio is +16.5, and the Powell/KP pairing is +15.9 and the KP/DFS pairing is +16.9 then the KP/DFS minutes without Powell are going to be a little bit better.  32 of those minutes are lineups with Maxi at +6.8.  So, we are getting down to a pretty small sample of KP/DFS and no big since 12/1, but I'd guess it is in the +20 area.  Don't you have software that does this better than NBA.com?

Interestingly, KP and Maxi are negative for the full season.  They are also negative (-0.7) since 12/1.  Maxi is the only non-hardship player with a negative rating next to KP since 12/1.  The best pairings with KP are Bullock, DFS and Powell.  There is a dropoff to another grouping that includes S. Brown, Green and Luka.  Brunson and THJ are the worst pairings with KP since 12/1 in the +3 range.   

One of the more interesting things about the resurgence of KP is it came without any appreciable change in his stats.  KP lineups were -18.3 in October, -2.6 in November and +11.9 in December.  Between November and December these stats actually declined:  FG%, 3%, FT%, TS% Minutes played (31.8-30.3), and Rebounds (8.4-8.1).  His assists went up from 2.3-2.8.  Scoring went from 21.5-21.7 and Usage went from 27.9-31.1.  FT attempts went up about 1.5 per game.  It is really hard to find where KP got appreciably better from November to December, yet the team suddenly started killing it when Hardaway went to the bench.  Where the team improvement seems to have come from is the D-Rating went from 109 to 106 when KP was in the game (but there was a corresponding drop in O-Rating from 120-117).  

Obviously, the other big question is who plays well with Luka.  Sticking with 12/1 as the start date, Bullock is +26.5.  In the cameo department, Sterling, Chriss and Moses all have really nice 20-plus net numbers in limited minutes.  Back to the regulars, Luka is in the 10+ area with THJ, Green and KP since 12/1.  It drops down to +4.3 with Powell, +2.8 with Maxi, +0.5 with DFS and -3.1 with Brunson.  What?  Surely it looks better since January 1st where we've won six of seven games?  Nope.  Brunson/Luka are -5.6 since 1/1.  Luka and DFS are -9.5.  As we think through trade scenarios, who plays well with who probably matters (small sample size warning).  If so, Bullock isn't going anywhere.  He's killing it alongside either KP or Luka.  Hardaway/KP lineups are bad, but Hardaway/Luka lineups are good.  Other side of the coin, DFS with KP is fantastic.  DFS with Luka...not so much.  Maxi and Brunson aren't exactly lighting it up next to either KP or Luka....rut row rastro.

---

Sounds like KP could emerge from protocols today which means something must be done with Chriss. 

Anyone know what's up with WCS "personal reasons"?

More players became trade eligible today (1/15).  Maybe we see some action?  If you have to do it, doing it in the midst of games against ORL and OKC makes some sense.

[Kammrath]

@"DanSchwartzgan" fantastic and thorough stuff!

What is your gut on what direction the Mavs will go?

Do you think Nico will just be looking to make deals that are "good" OR do you think he will be determined to move certain players even if the best deal doesn't arise?


Also, what would YOU do if you were the GM? Who would you be moving with the data and knowledge we have at this juncture?

[Mavs2021]

Backs my eyetest. I think Maxi has more trade value than on-court value for the Mavs. Him and Powell are kind of redundant.

I also don´t think we have enough to get Turner or Collins, unless Nico has made a decision to let both Brunson/DFS go.

I´d look for a small long-term upside/upgrade.

One trade could be:

Kleber to a contender (desperate play-off chaser)
Mavs assets/contender assets to Orlando
Bamba (into TPE) to Dallas

Specific example:

Kleber to Philly
Reed/Joe/two Mavs 2nd round picks to Orlando
Bamba to Dallas

[Tyler]

https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status...3141821444

[Hypermav]

Obviously, the other big question is who plays well with Luka.  Sticking with 12/1 as the start date, Bullock is +26.5.  In the cameo department, Sterling, Chriss and Moses all have really nice 20-plus net numbers in limited minutes.  Back to the regulars, Luka is in the 10+ area with THJ, Green and KP since 12/1.  It drops down to +4.3 with Powell, +2.8 with Maxi, +0.5 with DFS and -3.1 with Brunson.  What?  Surely it looks better since January 1st where we've won six of seven games?  Nope.  Brunson/Luka are -5.6 since 1/1.  Luka and DFS are -9.5.  As we think through trade scenarios, who plays well with who probably matters (small sample size warning).  If so, Bullock isn't going anywhere.  He's killing it alongside either KP or Luka.  Hardaway/KP lineups are bad, but Hardaway/Luka lineups are good.  Other side of the coin, DFS with KP is fantastic.  DFS with Luka...not so much.  Maxi and Brunson aren't exactly lighting it up next to either KP or Luka....rut row rastro.

I guess one (MBT) could argue the offseason guys are doing really well.  The old core guys have the least effective +- numbers with Luka?  Kinda obvious what needs to be done.  Just get a good return in the process.

[Tyler]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1482395532899332096

[Tyler]

If MT and JC were the same archetype, I might agree that there are obvious KP implications.  But, they are very different.  Instead, it looks to me like they are looking for an upgrade at the big spot next to KP.  MT would take you one direction (dramatically improved rim protection and more force than Powell provides).  JC would take you another direction.  Both make you younger.

I wonder if the success of Chriss has nudged Dallas a little more towards the Collins archetype.

---

Looks like the clock is officially ticking on Chriss. They've got 5 days to figure something out.

https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status...9866249217

[fifteenth]

This offseason I thought the signing of Bullock meant DFS would be expendable.   The new leadership brought in their guy in Bullock.   I just had trouble thinking you would pay 20-25 million for two wings who were both limited in some ways.   So far, DFS has outplayed Bullock by a wide margin imo.   

Folks keep slotting Bullock and DFS together. But Bullock could not man DFS's role. They're not the same player.

[mvossman]

Backs my eyetest. I think Maxi has more trade value than on-court value for the Mavs. Him and Powell are kind of redundant.

I also don´t think we have enough to get Turner or Collins, unless Nico has made a decision to let both Brunson/DFS go.

I´d look for a small long-term upside/upgrade.

One trade could be:

Kleber to a contender (desperate play-off chaser)
Mavs assets/contender assets to Orlando
Bamba (into TPE) to Dallas

Specific example:

Kleber to Philly
Reed/Joe/two Mavs 2nd round picks to Orlando
Bamba to Dallas

Wow.  I could not disagree with this more.  Maxi is an offensively limited backup big making 8 mil.  Nobody is beating down the door for him.  I really don't see how he is redundant with Powell?  On offense he is a floor stretcher while Powell is a rim runner.  On defense he has been elite (Powell has played better defense lately too, but not near Maxi level).  They actually complement each other well when they play together, but Maxi is easier to fit in just about any lineup.  Honestly, after watching the big rotation of Powell/Maxi/Chriss defensively dominate Memphis, Chicago, Golden State and Denver, I'm not really in hurry to get rid of any of them.

[Tyler]

Nothing surprising here, but worth repeating.

https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status...9377696770

[Kammrath]

MacMahon saying that is pretty big to me.

Makes me think:

1) Mavs might be pulling the trigger on a trade in the next few days.

OR

2) Mavs might be cutting Moses instead of WCS.

OR

3) The Mavs might be doing a gentlemen's agreement with MC and his agent, telling them to sit tight until Feb 10 and then they will get taken care of. 


Number three feels the riskiest and I have seen enough of MC to know I do NOT want to lose him.

P.S. It REALLY tells me we should be expecting some trade action in the next few weeks. 

[Tyler]

If it's just about cutting Moses, there's no need to wait until the 20th. All indications are that the chances of some sort of trade happening in the next few days are very high. There are no guarantees and it may not happen, but I have no doubt that Nico is burning up the phones.

[Kammrath]

If it's just about cutting Moses, there's no need to wait until the 20th. All indications are that the chances of some sort of trade happening in the next few days are very high. There are no guarantees and it may not happen, but I have no doubt that Nico is burning up the phones.

Yep, I will be SHOCKED to not see at least one significant trade from Nico in the next few weeks....and like you said, I think we will see something actually next week. 

As they say "deadlines make deals" and now with KP coming out of COVID, a real deadline is upon them.

[mvossman]

If they were going to make a trade in the next couple of days, the most likely candidates to me are KP or THJ.

KP because he is probably at his peak value right now and we just got a small sample of this team dominating with him out.  Its easy to imagine some of the guys that we could trade him for added to what this team has been doing the last several games.

THJ because he does not really seem to fit what they are trying to do, has not played well but still has quality reputation as a gunner, actually has a rumor that he might be on the block, and we have guys that we would like to see get more playing time blocked by him.

The question is what kind of trade with either of these guys would make sense to include WCS for filler?  Its harder to see that with KP as his salary is big enough to cover just about anybody.  What could we get with THJ+WCS?  That is not enough to take on Tobias Harris massive contract.

[Kammrath]

The question is what kind of trade with either of these guys would make sense to include WCS for filler?

You nailed it, this is the question to ponder.

I think even in a KP trade WCS might be needed as filler because many KP trades feel like three team deals make the most sense.

[Mavs2021]

Wow.  I could not disagree with this more.  Maxi is an offensively limited backup big making 8 mil.  Nobody is beating down the door for him.  I really don't see how he is redundant with Powell?  On offense he is a floor stretcher while Powell is a rim runner.  On defense he has been elite (Powell has played better defense lately too, but not near Maxi level).  They actually complement each other well when they play together, but Maxi is easier to fit in just about any lineup.  Honestly, after watching the big rotation of Powell/Maxi/Chriss defensively dominate Memphis, Chicago, Golden State and Denver, I'm not really in hurry to get rid of any of them.

Maybe not as they are the same player, but for the overall roster construction they are. We are looking to upgrade the 2nd big position with a player with superior ability or potential to Powell/Kleber, who will likely make more money than Powell/Kleber, too.

My C rotation would look like

Porzingis 33
PF/C  10-15M player
Powell or Kleber 10M player
Chriss
Rookie/Vet Minimum

If we assume, that we are looking to add a PF/C, then one of Powell/Kleber has to go (I´m not even counting Boban/WCS anymore), unless you think Porzingis should be the one to go.

[Tyler]

The question is what kind of trade with either of these guys would make sense to include WCS for filler?

IMHO, we should probably be looking at deals including THJ/WCS/Brunson or THJ/WCS/DFS that trade up for an expensive player. The former can net someone making $34mm, and the latter a little under $37mm. Picture teams looking to trade a big name for a productive scorer, a hot upcoming FA who they'd have a tough time signing without Bird rights, and cap flexibility.

*cough* Simmons *cough*

[mvossman]

IMHO, we should probably be looking at deals including THJ/WCS/Brunson or THJ/WCS/DFS that trade up for an expensive player. The former can net someone making $34mm, and the latter a little under $37mm. Picture teams looking to trade a big name for a productive scorer, a hot upcoming FA who they'd have a tough time signing without Bird rights, and cap flexibility.

*cough* Simmons *cough*

There is no way Philly takes that package for Simmons.  Both packages are way too much for Tobias Harris.  The target would have to be someone in the middle of those two.  I can't think of anyone off the top of my head.

[BackToSquareOne]

There is no way Philly takes that package for Simmons.  Both packages are way too much for Tobias Harris.  The target would have to be someone in the middle of those two.  I can't think of anyone off the top of my head.

12 Jimmy Butler, SF Miami Heat $36,016,200
13 Tobias Harris, PF Philadelphia 76ers $35,995,950
14 Khris Middleton, SF Milwaukee Bucks $35,500,000
15 Anthony Davis, PF Los Angeles Lakers $35,361,360
16 Rudy Gobert, C Utah Jazz $35,344,828
17 Kyrie Irving, PG Brooklyn Nets $35,328,700
18 Bradley Beal, SG Washington Wizards $33,724,200
19 Pascal Siakam, PF Toronto Raptors $33,003,936
20 Ben Simmons, PG Philadelphia 76ers $33,003,936
21 Jrue Holiday, PG Milwaukee Bucks $32,413,33322
22 Devin Booker, SG Phoenix Suns $31,650,600
23 Karl-Anthony Towns, C Minnesota Timberwolves $31,650,600
24 Kristaps Porzingis, C Dallas Mavericks $31,650,600
25 Joel Embiid, C Philadelphia 76ers $31,579,390
26 Andrew Wiggins, SF Golden State Warriors $31,579,390
27 Nikola Jokic, C Denver Nuggets $31,579,390
28 Kevin Love, PF Cleveland Cavaliers $31,258,256
29 CJ McCollum, SG Portland Trail Blazers $30,864,198
30 D'Angelo Russell, PG Minnesota Timberwolves $30,013,500
31 Chris Paul, PG Phoenix Suns $30,000,000
32 Gordon Hayward, SF Charlotte Hornets $29,925,000