Prediction: We will Start a Traditional Center

[fifteenth]

I would say it is most likely Bullock shoots around his career average of 39 %

Edit: less likely (but possible) he shoots better and less likely (but possible) he shoots worse

Do you think we have any evidence that Luka helps shooters?

[omahen]

Do you think we have any evidence that Luka helps shooters?

Interesting question. I will take it seriously.

It seems to me Luka finds open guys and creates good looks for them - that is my hypothesis. What I actually don't really know (as I don't follow the rest of teams so much), is what kind of looks certain players had before coming to Dallas. I am assuming Luka will be creating better looks. Than of course there is also opponent defense. For example - if Mavs play a non shooting center, the defense will likely cover the three shooters while guy guarding that center will help in the paint. But lets try to find data to support the hypothesis. I don't have time to go through everything, but perhaps the points listed below will open the debate. 

In theory wide open shots should increase accuracy of the shooters. Since Luka is Dallas main ballhandler I will assume (simplify) most team results are a consequence of his actions, which is of course not entirely true. Dallas as a team was 11th in the league with 17.5 wide open three pointers attempted last season. There were 10 better teams than us but Dallas was still considerably better than number 30 SA with 12 or (for example) number 20 NY with 15 such attempts per game. I don't think this number alone could confirm my hypothesis, we have to get more.

Mavs were just 22nd in the league in the accuracy of those wide open shots, hitting 37 % of them. That is bad and below the percentage of team best shooters. Mavs actually scored 36,9 % (so basically same percentage as in wide open shots) of open three pointer. So based on this data we could say that being more open didn't help Dallas shooters overall. That is of course very strange, because league as a whole is shooting much better when wide open. 

So did Mavs create open looks for bad shooters only? I doesn't look so, good shooters got fair amount of open looks:
- THJ had 1,9 such shots per game (shooting them at 38,8 %, worse than his overall average), 
- DFS had 4,2 such shots per game (vast majority of his three pointers), 
- Maxi had 3,4 (basically all his three pointers), 
- KP had 3 per game also shooting them a bit below his overall average, 
- Brunson had 1,7 such shots and converted 41 % of them (a bit above his overall average)
- Luka himself took 1,5 wide open three pointers per game hitting 37 % of them

So Mavs best shooters shot more than 15 wide open shots per game, but not really hitting them at better percentage than what are supposed to be more difficult shots. What makes Mavs so different from rest of league in this regard? Is that because of Luka?  I don't have an answer

41 % of JRich 3pt shots in Dallas were wide open (1,9 per game). His accuracy was miserable at 32 %. In Philly he shot 1,5 wide open three pointers per game which was 33 % of all of his three pointers. Accuracy also miserable 32 %. However in his last season in Miami, JRich was shooting 2,5 wide open threes per game which was 40 % of his three pointers. He converted good 42 % of them. Another season back and he shot 2 wide open three pointers per game converting 40 % of them. Again - what was so different? 

50 % of KP three pointers were wide open last season. He converted 37 % of them. In 2017-2018 season in NY 48 % of his three pointers were wide open (2,3 per game), but he converted 46 % of them. So volume got up but accuracy dumped.

Based on the data I listed I can't confirm the hypothesis. Of course there are many more possible data to check, so I also can't say the hypothesis is wrong.

[fifteenth]

@"omahen", that's way more work than I've put into this discussion! Several Mavs shooting worse on what your data calls open shots is interesting, non-intuitive, and I have no idea what to do with it.

[omahen]

that's way more work than I've put into this discussion! Several Mavs shooting worse on what your data calls open shots is interesting, non-intuitive, and I have no idea what to do with it.

Thanks. All data is from NBA.com. When I looked at those numbers of wide open shots per player, another interesting thing. THJ gets relatively small amount of wide open shots based on his volume - defenses obviously not wanting to leave him open. On the other hand it looks like defenses are taking their risks with DFS and Maxi. It is interesting though that JRich didn't get so many open looks despite his worse shooting. He didn't look a reluctant shooter, he also shot more open shots than wide open ones. One would think that defenses would be leaving him wide open all the time, but this data doesn't really confirm that.

[KillerLeft]

He didn't look a reluctant shooter, he also shot more open shots than wide open ones. One would think that defenses would be leaving him wide open all the time, but this data doesn't really confirm that.

I generally agree with your puzzlement here, but a couple of minor push backs:

1) I actually did think he was somewhat of a reluctant shooter at times on catch and shoot opportunities, specifically. 

2) I wonder how much of the "not left as open" as the others had to do with him having the ball in his hands more often than DFS/Kleber?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Interesting question. I will take it seriously.

Good stuff.  I’ve done a much less formal survey and the place I’ve noticed Luka having an impact is TS%.  I’ve seen 20 basis point changes for several players, but I may be only remembering the positive numbers.  The good news for 21/22 is Bullock was already a .606 TS% last year.

Back to our previous discussion, I think you are trying too hard to create equivalency between JRich and Bullock.  I’m much less worried about Bullock’s numbers in the two prior years.  NY was the 30th and 28th best O in the league.  When you don’t create for yourself, you are dependent on the kindness of others and NY didn’t have much in the way of “others”.  Flash forward to a better NY team and his numbers are fantastic (with Elfrid Payton his PG much of the time).   There is just no comparison between RB at 42.5% on C&S threes or 45% from the corner and JRich at 32.3% and 31.5%.  I get the whole “burn me twice, shame on me” thinking.  And, there are no guarantees.  But Bullock starts from a much better place and has done things JRich hasn’t come close to achieving.  I’ll take that guy.

Defensively, I will repeat, Bullock often took the toughest defensive assignment for the number 3 defensive team in the league.  For whatever reason, JRich became unplayable for an average D.  I think we will see improvement on both sides of the ball.  It is fair to argue degree, but I don’t see how one argues it won’t be improvement at all.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I generally agree with your puzzlement here, but a couple of minor push backs:

1) I actually did think he was somewhat of a reluctant shooter at times on catch and shoot opportunities, specifically. 

2) I wonder how much of the "not left as open" as the others had to do with him having the ball in his hands more often than DFS/Kleber?

I think one of the most interesting things about Omahen’s post were the numbers for DFS and Maxi.  Luka forces teams to pick their poison.  Dallas is going to score at a fairly high rate.  All a D can do is hope to control the who.  It appears teams are fairly willing to live with Maxi and DFS 3’s.  Here is another area where Bullock should help.  His 3 point gravity may be higher than THJ’s and certainly blows JRich’s off the face of the earth.

[KillerLeft]

His 3 point gravity may be higher than THJ’s and certainly blows JRich’s off the face of the earth.

I don't think there's much of a chance of it being higher than THJ's, personally. I just think those two are different classes of offensive player, and they're at a point where minor percentage differences don't matter (to me) as much as watching them. If I'm wrong about that, then HELL YES we're going to love Bullock!

To your point though, I definitely think Bullock is closer to THJ than he is to Kleber/DFS, and he's got a quick trigger in transition, too, which could cause problems. Having both (he and THJ) on the floor for stretches should be fun.

[ItsGoTime]

Defensively, I will repeat, Bullock often took the toughest defensive assignment for the number 3 defensive team in the league.

I thought there was a stat during the season that had JRich high on the list of players taking the toughest assignment as well. I might argue that having JRich WITH DFS AND RB WITH a coach that gets the team to play defense (RC used to talk about getting the players to play defense, but it didn’t seem like the sub pattern required it), might make this team look closer to a defensive minded team.


Not really trying to defend JRich, but, I’m gonna have to see it before I believe it at this point as far as any player coming in and making the team look better.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think either Powell or Willie will start and KP will be the starting PF in the AD role.

Bump

[ClutchDirk]

https://media.giphy.com/media/OTznlmso0e...mh6mj1rx9j&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

[cow]

I'd celebrate you being correct but being correct means the fate of the Mavs is in WCS hands-like-feet.

[KillerLeft]

Bump

I think it could be Powell, but I wouldn't call him a "traditional center." Nor do I think he'd even play that position on defense. 

...nor do I expect this to last very long, for that matter. We'll see.

[fifteenth]

If KP is going to be setting screens and posting up then DP better have a 3 pt shot this season

[david75090]

I feel like it's a definite maybe. Perhaps it's Powell, who's not a traditional center, who will be the non-traditional center starter. So, yeah, maybe.

[RedFlag41]

If KP will set screen and posts up more, I think there is a possibility that Maxi starts as the 5 while KP plays the 4. In that way, Maxi can spread the floor in offense but guards centers and protects the rim on defense.

During the Media Day interview, JKidd said that he does not normally look at bigs as a 4 or a 5 in a traditional sense. And, that KP can play both positions.

Of course, it is more likely that either DP or WCS starts at center.

[Mapka]

Interesting question. I will take it seriously.

It seems to me Luka finds open guys and creates good looks for them - that is my hypothesis. What I actually don't really know (as I don't follow the rest of teams so much), is what kind of looks certain players had before coming to Dallas. I am assuming Luka will be creating better looks. Than of course there is also opponent defense. For example - if Mavs play a non shooting center, the defense will likely cover the three shooters while guy guarding that center will help in the paint. But lets try to find data to support the hypothesis. I don't have time to go through everything, but perhaps the points listed below will open the debate. 

In theory wide open shots should increase accuracy of the shooters. Since Luka is Dallas main ballhandler I will assume (simplify) most team results are a consequence of his actions, which is of course not entirely true. Dallas as a team was 11th in the league with 17.5 wide open three pointers attempted last season. There were 10 better teams than us but Dallas was still considerably better than number 30 SA with 12 or (for example) number 20 NY with 15 such attempts per game. I don't think this number alone could confirm my hypothesis, we have to get more.

Mavs were just 22nd in the league in the accuracy of those wide open shots, hitting 37 % of them. That is bad and below the percentage of team best shooters. Mavs actually scored 36,9 % (so basically same percentage as in wide open shots) of open three pointer. So based on this data we could say that being more open didn't help Dallas shooters overall. That is of course very strange, because league as a whole is shooting much better when wide open. 

So did Mavs create open looks for bad shooters only? I doesn't look so, good shooters got fair amount of open looks:
- THJ had 1,9 such shots per game (shooting them at 38,8 %, worse than his overall average), 
- DFS had 4,2 such shots per game (vast majority of his three pointers), 
- Maxi had 3,4 (basically all his three pointers), 
- KP had 3 per game also shooting them a bit below his overall average, 
- Brunson had 1,7 such shots and converted 41 % of them (a bit above his overall average)
- Luka himself took 1,5 wide open three pointers per game hitting 37 % of them

So Mavs best shooters shot more than 15 wide open shots per game, but not really hitting them at better percentage than what are supposed to be more difficult shots. What makes Mavs so different from rest of league in this regard? Is that because of Luka?  I don't have an answer

41 % of JRich 3pt shots in Dallas were wide open (1,9 per game). His accuracy was miserable at 32 %. In Philly he shot 1,5 wide open three pointers per game which was 33 % of all of his three pointers. Accuracy also miserable 32 %. However in his last season in Miami, JRich was shooting 2,5 wide open threes per game which was 40 % of his three pointers. He converted good 42 % of them. Another season back and he shot 2 wide open three pointers per game converting 40 % of them. Again - what was so different? 

50 % of KP three pointers were wide open last season. He converted 37 % of them. In 2017-2018 season in NY 48 % of his three pointers were wide open (2,3 per game), but he converted 46 % of them. So volume got up but accuracy dumped.

Based on the data I listed I can't confirm the hypothesis. Of course there are many more possible data to check, so I also can't say the hypothesis is wrong.

The Mavs took a good amount of their threes way behind the threepoint line. (At least KP, Luka and THJ) That might make them "wide open" but not necessarily "better" shots.

Dodo is way better from the corners, which are less "open" normally.

I don't think the "wide open thing" helps us with the quality of a shot. There is much more like: timing, how good does a passer hit a shooters shooting pocket, which player does he pass at what spot, who is defending a player.

Only exception: Maxis release is kinda so much better if slow, that he needs at least a really open shot to let it fly.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If KP is going to be setting screens and posting up then DP better have a 3 pt shot this season

Half the league starts a big who can’t shoot 3’s.  I bet they figure it out.

[fifteenth]

Half the league starts a big who can’t shoot 3’s.  I bet they figure it out.

Maybe I'm stuck in the mindset of the offense I've seen recently with the Mavs. I mean, Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion shared floor time, and Matrix wasn't shooting the 3 much at that time. 

The thing is, I just don't know what DP is doing if he's not setting screens. His whole career finally got traction when he started setting screens and catching lobs. He seemed to be a failed project until the day, sometime after Christmas of DSJ's rookie year, the Mavs finally took him off the perimeter on offense and let him be the screen setter. I'd love to see KP setting screens! If KP is the screen setter then Maxi seems to make more sense with KP. 

But if they make KP and DP work, with KP setting screens, then that's great. It means I get to learn something. And I do acknowledge that if I can't imagine something that doesn't mean it can't happen. I am, afterall, not a basketball professional, or even a good amature.

[IamDougieFresh]

https://twitter.com/housemavericks/statu...67430?s=21

I’m a fan of both of these 5 man units. Idc who you want to call the 5 between KP and Maxi.