MAVS NEWS:

[KillerLeft]

Just curious...Mavs pick 11th...would you trade that pick and PJ for Trey Murphy?

Yes, as long as I had another avenue of getting a guard lined up after losing that pick. Murphy would be great next to Flagg.

[KillerLeft]

I am obviously all over the place and every time AD falls down it looks like an ambulance may need to pick him up.

With that being said, Flagg is ready to win now.  What is wrong with the two timeline thing?   AD and Kyrie have two more years left on the contract.  Is it such a bad idea to keep them around while trying to find a younger 1-2 longer term piece?  Eventually, AD and Kyrie come off the books.   Having both come off the books when Flagg is 21 with hopefully a youngish roster isn't the worst thing.   Just don't be pressured into any extension talks.  

Is this group a contender?  I would guess not.   Although I see little value in moving off AD if I am not getting a package I view worthy of his talent.   a really bad injury is a concern, but if I am not getting another core building block back for him I don't really see it as a huge risk.  The biggest risk is if AD plays, this team will probably win more than they lose and that will impact your draft spot.  That is a legit concern.

Totally agree, and I wouldn't be so fast to decide that team isn't a contender. 

They'd need Lively to pan out, health wise, and they'd need to add at least one more ball-handler, somehow, along with more shooting. These things are possible, and there's really no telling how much better Flagg will get at this point, or how quickly.

[Winter]

I am obviously all over the place and every time AD falls down it looks like an ambulance may need to pick him up.

With that being said, Flagg is ready to win now.  What is wrong with the two timeline thing?   AD and Kyrie have two more years left on the contract.  Is it such a bad idea to keep them around while trying to find a younger 1-2 longer term piece?  Eventually, AD and Kyrie come off the books.   Having both come off the books when Flagg is 21 with hopefully a youngish roster isn't the worst thing.   Just don't be pressured into any extension talks.  

Is this group a contender?  I would guess not.   Although I see little value in moving off AD if I am not getting a package I view worthy of his talent.   a really bad injury is a concern, but if I am not getting another core building block back for him I don't really see it as a huge risk.  The biggest risk is if AD plays, this team will probably win more than they lose and that will impact your draft spot.  That is a legit concern.

I understand this. My personal opinion is AD's value is largely tied to him being healthy, playing well, AND the Mavs playing well when he's in the lineup.

But I simply don't think that necessarily means he will be more valuable this summer as a trade piece. He turns 33 in March. And since I don't believe he should get an extension, all I can really do is (sadly) put all of my trust in the Front Office to make the right decision when an offer comes in. If it's not good enough, you can wait.... but you're gambling AD is healthy and a difference maker every day he's a Maverick from now until summer.

[KillerLeft]

But I simply don't think that necessarily means he will be more valuable this summer as a trade piece. And since I don't believe he should get an extension, all I can really do is (sadly) put all of my trust in the Front Office to make the right decision when an offer comes in. If it's not good enough, you can wait.... but you're gambling AD is healthy and a difference maker eveny day he's a Maverick from now until summer.

The injury concerns will obviously always be a thing with AD. No argument there. 

But...what if you just wrap your mind around that, like the Lakers did, and stick it out? In other words, what if you stop trying to find ways to maximize him as an asset and start trying to find ways to have him play in Dallas until the end, hoping to find the best version of that? He's going to opt into his final year, so that gives you two more seasons, right? Then, as Chicago pointed out, it might not be the end of the world to simply let the contract expire. That's a big chunk of salary reduction over night, especially if you loop Kyrie into that same plan. I know we're not super into the "powder" plan of yesteryear, but this will be a new front office and a new franchise player. And, if things go well with AD, could you get him on an extension at significantly below his max? Idk, frankly, but I can envision a scenario in which he's healthy enough and cheap enough to make me feel ok about it, especially relative to what the rumored hypothetical offers have been, recently. Until that climate changes, which it might not, I think I'm ok with the status quo and hoping for the best, honestly. 

No real suggested plans here, at least on my part, I'm just saying things change quickly in this league, and I wouldn't be quick to just give anybody away.

[Winter]

The injury concerns will obviously always be a thing with AD. No argument there. 

But...what if you just wrap your mind around that, like the Lakers did, and stick it out? In other words, what if you stop trying to find ways to maximize him as an asset and start trying to find ways to have him play in Dallas until the end, hoping to find the best version of that? He's going to opt into his final year, so that gives you two more seasons, right? Then, as Chicago pointed out, it might not be the end of the world to simply let the contract expire. That's a big chunk of salary reduction over night, especially if you loop Kyrie into that same plan. I know we're not super into the "powder" plan of yesteryear, but this will be a new front office and a new franchise player. And, if things go well with AD, could you get him on an extension at significantly below his max? Idk, frankly, but I can envision a scenario in which he's healthy enough and cheap enough to make me feel ok about it, especially relative to what the rumored hypothetical offers have been, recently. Until that climate changes, which it might not, I think I'm ok with the status quo and hoping for the best, honestly. 

No real suggested plans here, at least on my part, I'm just saying things change quickly in this league, and I wouldn't be quick to just give anybody away.

To me, that's plan B.

Plan A would include 2 draft picks and at least two players who can play. This wouldn't be just any draft picks or just any players.... so plan B is actually a real possibility. We may end up there without good offers. I can't say I like it because I don't think we're good enough with that lineup. We will just be accepting a middle-of-the road team watching Kyrie and AD ride off into the sunset. It feels a little stagnant.

Also, it's hard to imagine a new GM buying into Plan B. Maybe that happens, but it sounds short-sighted.

[michaeltex]

I agree with the AD comments. Seems like he hits the floor more than any other big man I know.

If we look at OKC, I'm not sure anybody is a contender this season. But at some point, they are going to have to slough off picks and/or players because you can only pay 15 guaranteed contracts and FRPs are guaranteed contract picks. They have 3 in 2026 (although UTA's pick may not convey), 3 in 2027 (at least 2 will convey). Feels like a traffic jam building. Their cap goes up from $187MM this season to $246MM next season over only 14 players (if all TOs are picked up).

Getting back on track...I feel like this team, when everyone is healthy, can compete with the other 28 teams. Healthy being the key attribute. Whether that's enough to keep it together is another question.

p.s. - I wrote this before seeing KL's great summary.

[KillerLeft]

To me, that's plan B.

Plan A would include 2 draft picks and at least two players who can play. This wouldn't be just any draft picks or just any players.... so plan B is actually a real possibility. We may end up there without good offers. I can't say I like it because I don't think we're good enough with that lineup. We will just be accepting a middle-of-the road team watching Kyrie and AD ride off into the sunset. It feels a little stagnant.

Also, it's hard to imagine a new GM buying into Plan B. Maybe that happens, but it sounds short-sighted.

I understand where you're coming from. 

I think I'm more hopeful that "plan B" can be better than stagnant than you, but it's all hypothetical at this point, no matter what we expect. 

I'm also ok with your "plan A," but only if it's the right two players and the right two picks. I suppose there's a decent chance for disagreement over the details, but I'm reasonably comfortable with the lines as you've drawn them. 

Where I disagree is the "shot-sighted" comment. To me, the short-sighted move would be "get AD out of here for the best deal possible, whatever that might be." For context, I'll refer you to the Porzingis situation of a few years ago. There are some posters I respect who were livid about that trade for Dinwiddie/Bertans, but I was thrilled, and would do it again 100/100 times. Why? Because even when healthy, Porzingis was, imo, making the team worse while on the court. It was beyond clear that he and Luka weren't a fit (later we found out why), and defensively, I just couldn't take it anymore. I'm sure you could have found stats that seemed to show he was a positive, and in fact I seem to recall that people did, but I remember wondering how anyone could watch those games and not reach the conclusion that Porzingis was holding that team back in multiple ways. And, whether the trade was good value or not, Diniwiddie ended up adding quite a bit (that first stint, at least), and that trade was one of the reasons the team made it to the Conference Finals, imho. 

So, what's the difference between that situation and this one with AD? Simple. When AD is healthy enough to play, the team is actually better. Significantly better, in fact. I think he's a DREAM of a fit with Flagg, and the injury concerns are literally the only reason I'd even consider shopping him. There is no "addition by subtraction" element to this scenario, as there clearly was with Porzingis. For me, that means you'd have to get a very good offer to move him or you're stupid. I think (hope) any GM would see it that way, personally.

[Winter]

I understand where you're coming from. 

I think I'm more hopeful that "plan B" can be better than stagnant than you, but it's all hypothetical at this point, no matter what we expect. 

I'm also ok with your "plan A," but only if it's the right two players and the right two picks. I suppose there's a decent chance for disagreement over the details, but I'm reasonably comfortable with the lines as you've drawn them. 

Where I disagree is the "shot-sighted" comment. To me, the short-sighted move would be "get AD out of here for the best deal possible, whatever that might be." For context, I'll refer you to the Porzingis situation of a few years ago. There are some posters I respect who were livid about that trade for Dinwiddie/Bertans, but I was thrilled, and would do it again 100/100 times. Why? Because even when healthy, Porzingis was, imo, making the team worse while on the court. It was beyond clear that he and Luka weren't a fit (later we found out why), and defensively, I just couldn't take it anymore. I'm sure you could have found stats that seemed to show he was a positive, and in fact I seem to recall that people did, but I remember wondering how anyone could watch those games and not reach the conclusion that Porzingis was holding that team back in multiple ways. And, whether the trade was good value or not, Diniwiddie ended up adding quite a bit (that first stint, at least), and that trade was one of the reasons the team made it to the Conference Finals, imho. 

So, what's the difference between that situation and this one with AD? Simple. When AD is healthy enough to play, the team is actually better. Significantly better, in fact. I think he's a DREAM of a fit with Flagg, and the injury concerns are literally the only reason I'd even consider shopping him. There is no "addition by subtraction" element to this scenario, as there clearly was with Porzingis. For me, that means you'd have to get a very good offer to move him or you're stupid. I think (hope) any GM would see it that way, personally.

That's reasonable, but I still feel (and I expect a new GM will as well) that we are truly screwed without more draft capital in the next few years. 

There are a few ways to solve that even with Plan B, but it's hard for me to imagine a scenario where "standing pat" is part of our three-year plan.

Good discussion though.

[KillerLeft]

That's reasonable, but I still feel (and I expect a new GM will as well) that we are truly screwed without more draft capital in the next few years. 

There are a few ways to solve that even with Plan B, but it's hard for me to imagine a scenario where "standing pat" is part of our three-year plan.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. No "standing pat," just maybe no trading AD and/or Kyrie. That's all I'm suggesting, and I'm not even suggesting it, just not ruling it out. 

I'm simply saying I don't personally rule out the idea of Flagg developing fast enough for this team to do some real damage with the those three together, if the other chairs are shuffled in just the right way. That's all. 

And, I'm suggesting that there's a very real chance that anyone would prefer that option over others, if the offers aren't good enough. 

They'd have to think long and hard about moving guys like Gafford, PJW, Marshall, etc...but I can see it being the chosen path.

[KillerLeft]

At the very least...I think I've reached the point where I'm curious to see 20 games of Flagg, AD and Kyrie playing together. If that means you don't trade AD at this deadline, I think I'm good with that, personally. Unless someone knocks you out with an offer, obviously.

[Mavs2021]

I agree with the AD comments. Seems like he hits the floor more than any other big man I know.

If we look at OKC, I'm not sure anybody is a contender this season. But at some point, they are going to have to slough off picks and/or players because you can only pay 15 guaranteed contracts and FRPs are guaranteed contract picks. They have 3 in 2026 (although UTA's pick may not convey), 3 in 2027 (at least 2 will convey). Feels like a traffic jam building. Their cap goes up from $187MM this season to $246MM next season over only 14 players (if all TOs are picked up).

Well they have a top 5 pick coming this year and next year, too. Those Clippers are only getting worse next year. That alone might be enough to transition into the next dynasty. The best Kawhi punishment would be to strip the Clippers of their 2027 first.

[mvossman]

Whoa, whoa, whoa. No "standing pat," just maybe no trading AD and/or Kyrie. That's all I'm suggesting, and I'm not even suggesting it, just not ruling it out. 

I'm simply saying I don't personally rule out the idea of Flagg developing fast enough for this team to do some real damage with the those three together, if the other chairs are shuffled in just the right way. That's all. 

And, I'm suggesting that there's a very real chance that anyone would prefer that option over others, if the offers aren't good enough. 

They'd have to think long and hard about moving guys like Gafford, PJW, Marshall, etc...but I can see it being the chosen path.

So the question is what does not standing pat mean?  Is this team going to be a contender with a disgruntled AD and no significant roster updates?  No?  Then "lets try it with those guys" either ends up in a futile effort that costs draft assets, or it ends up in an all in mindset that likely involves an AD extension and the future assets getting sent out in a huge gamble that two mid 30s oft injured stars and a 19 year old can lead the team to a short window championship.   

I get the argument that the market for AD might just not be there at the TDL, and if that is the case you wait until the offseason.  But I am deathly afraid of "lets try it" turns into "we are all in" and we end up in an even deeper hole than we were after we traded for KP.

[michaeltex]

Well they have a top 5 pick coming this year and next year, too. Those Clippers are only getting worse next year. That alone might be enough to transition into the next dynasty. The best Kawhi punishment would be to strip the Clippers of their 2027 first.

OKC for the coming draft has:
Their own #1 - probably 30th pick
Utah #1 - protected 1-8
Philly #1 - Protected 1-4

Based on current standings top 5 is not likely, but they should have at least 1 later lottery pick

Next year:
SAS #1 - 1-16 protected
Den #1 - 1-5 protected
#1 Swap rights with LACs

Given the quality of the teams, I'd say the LAC swap may be their best chance get an early pick. For that reason, I don't think there will be any NBA punishment affecting near term drafts.

[KillerLeft]

So the question is what does not standing pat mean?  Is this team going to be a contender with a disgruntled AD and no significant roster updates?  No?  Then "lets try it with those guys" either ends up in a futile effort that costs draft assets, or it ends up in an all in mindset that likely involves an AD extension and the future assets getting sent out in a huge gamble that two mid 30s oft injured stars and a 19 year old can lead the team to a short window championship.   

I get the argument that the market for AD might just not be there at the TDL, and if that is the case you wait until the offseason.  But I am deathly afraid of "lets try it" turns into "we are all in" and we end up in an even deeper hole than we were after we traded for KP.

I think that's too extreme a viewpoint, and if my NBA fandom has taught me anything, it's that we're not as good at predicting this stuff as we think. I can't remember what version of this board we were in during 2011, so I can't give any links, but I can tell you that very, very few of us were believers in that team. The prevailing wisdom was that the team was too old, not talented enough, and that the nails had already been hammered into the coffin of Dirk's era. There were members of this community who refused to believe, even during the Finals. 

All I'm saying is this: the combination of Flagg, AD and Kyrie might actually be much better than we can predict sitting here today, especially if Flagg's progression continues at this rate. They all fit on the court, style wise, after all, so isn't it really just a matter of how good the kid is, and how quickly, along with filling the right pieces around them? And, don't the Mavs already have the "good role players" part of team building in place? Is it really that impossible to think they could shuffle those good players to teams needing them for equivalent pieces that fit with the Mavs' trio a little better, if needed? Does that really constitute "going all in?" 

I'd submit that, since the Mavs don't really have access to their own draft capital for a while, it's worth a try. Flagg is young enough to where the second act of his career can start right about the time we get to the point where the cupboard has more draft capital in it, no? I mean, in 2031, he'll be about the age Luka was when they traded him. I don't...REALLY...see an emergency situation here, at least not at the moment. 

Frankly, the prospect of Flagg getting seasoned enough to be deadly while there's still juice left in Kyrie/AD's careers seems like one of the more plausible outcomes to bet on, given the alternatives. There's simply no way to turn the assets on hand into the kind of draft capital needed for a rebuild and we all know it. Sure, they could liquidate into a ton of picks, but without their OWN picks, such an endeavor has a very low likelihood of success. 

Don't get me wrong - I'm not advocating for trading picks from way down the road for guys to help "win now," especially if they're late 20's or early 30's types, but switching PJW out for a SF who's roughly the same quality of player but might fit with Flagg better? That's just one example, mind you, not a suggestion, but idk...I can see it.

[KillerLeft]

At the very least...I think I've reached the point where I'm curious to see 20 games of Flagg, AD and Kyrie playing together. If that means you don't trade AD at this deadline, I think I'm good with that, personally. Unless someone knocks you out with an offer, obviously.

This, to me, has become the bottom line. I want to see how this works. I mean, look how great Flagg/AD fit together (other than time line). What if Kyrie/Flagg can enjoy a similar chemistry? 

I want to see it before acting if I'm running the team. That's all I'm saying. No premature decisions in either direction, I just want more information. Unless I get an offer I can't refuse, of course.

[Mavs2021]

OKC for the coming draft has:
Their own #1 - probably 30th pick
Utah #1 - protected 1-8
Philly #1 - Protected 1-4

Based on current standings top 5 is not likely, but they should have at least 1 later lottery pick

Next year:
SAS #1 - 1-16 protected
Den #1 - 1-5 protected
#1 Swap rights with LACs

Given the quality of the teams, I'd say the LAC swap may be their best chance get an early pick. For that reason, I don't think there will be any NBA punishment affecting near term drafts.

 

They have the Clippers pick this year and next year. Those will both be lottery picks.

[KillerLeft]

Hell guys, I can't even promise I don't think there's a chance THIS YEAR isn't better than we expect. The team is getting better. I know most of us don't want them to improve yet, and I get that it would be nice to get another high lottery pick out of this year, but with how the team is playing...what if Kyrie has something left and fits well?

Are we 100% positive this team can't get past the first round as is, in that scenario? I'm not. I'll admit it.

[ThisIStheYear]

I am obviously all over the place and every time AD falls down it looks like an ambulance may need to pick him up.

With that being said, Flagg is ready to win now.  What is wrong with the two timeline thing?   AD and Kyrie have two more years left on the contract.  Is it such a bad idea to keep them around while trying to find a younger 1-2 longer term piece?  Eventually, AD and Kyrie come off the books.   Having both come off the books when Flagg is 21 with hopefully a youngish roster isn't the worst thing.   Just don't be pressured into any extension talks.  

Is this group a contender?  I would guess not.   Although I see little value in moving off AD if I am not getting a package I view worthy of his talent.   a really bad injury is a concern, but if I am not getting another core building block back for him I don't really see it as a huge risk.  The biggest risk is if AD plays, this team will probably win more than they lose and that will impact your draft spot.  That is a legit concern.

I’m not in a rush to trade AD either, but in no scenario should the Mavs extend him with a big contract.  I sense that’s going to cause a fracture soon enough as his agent believes he should get top dollar. So, my goal would pretty much be to maximize his trade value while he still has some and before he walks. Kyrie’s a different story. He could be a longer term play, we’ll see.

[DallasMaverick]

I’m not in a rush to trade AD either, but in no scenario should the Mavs extend him with a big contract.  I sense that’s going to cause a fracture soon enough as his agent believes he should get top dollar. So, my goal would pretty much be to maximize his trade value while he still has some and before he walks. Kyrie’s a different story. He could be a longer term play, we’ll see.

Exactly how we felt about Tyson Chandler back in 2011.

[mvossman]

I think that's too extreme a viewpoint, and if my NBA fandom has taught me anything, it's that we're not as good at predicting this stuff as we think. I can't remember what version of this board we were in during 2011, so I can't give any links, but I can tell you that very, very few of us were believers in that team. The prevailing wisdom was that the team was too old, not talented enough, and that the nails had already been hammered into the coffin of Dirk's era. There were members of this community who refused to believe, even during the Finals. 

All I'm saying is this: the combination of Flagg, AD and Kyrie might actually be much better than we can predict sitting here today, especially if Flagg's progression continues at this rate. They all fit on the court, style wise, after all, so isn't it really just a matter of how good the kid is, and how quickly, along with filling the right pieces around them? And, don't the Mavs already have the "good role players" part of team building in place? Is it really that impossible to think they could shuffle those good players to teams needing them for equivalent pieces that fit with the Mavs' trio a little better, if needed? Does that really constitute "going all in?" 

I'd submit that, since the Mavs don't really have access to their own draft capital for a while, it's worth a try. Flagg is young enough to where the second act of his career can start right about the time we get to the point where the cupboard has more draft capital in it, no? I mean, in 2031, he'll be about the age Luka was when they traded him. I don't...REALLY...see an emergency situation here, at least not at the moment. 

Frankly, the prospect of Flagg getting seasoned enough to be deadly while there's still juice left in Kyrie/AD's careers seems like one of the more plausible outcomes to bet on, given the alternatives. There's simply no way to turn the assets on hand into the kind of draft capital needed for a rebuild and we all know it. Sure, they could liquidate into a ton of picks, but without their OWN picks, such an endeavor has a very low likelihood of success. 

Don't get me wrong - I'm not advocating for trading picks from way down the road for guys to help "win now," especially if they're late 20's or early 30's types, but switching PJW out for a SF who's roughly the same quality of player but might fit with Flagg better? That's just one example, mind you, not a suggestion, but idk...I can see it.

I don't think history is in their favor.  Most champions have a core that have played together for multiple years, generally getting some playoff experience together during that ramp up time.  A lot of times they will add a key piece to put them over the top, but there is generally a strong core with years of experience together.  Our top three guys have not played a single game together.  Two of them have been on the team for less than a year.  We are asking those guys to build whole lot of chemistry very quickly.

Lebron, Jokic and Ginnis all took at least 8 years to win a title and they were all around 27.  It takes a lot of time to get to the point where you can be a number one option on a title team.  Its asking an awful lot for Flagg to do it in his early 20s.

AD and Kyrie have significant injury/availability concerns and they will be entering their mid 30s.  That is the point where a lot of NBA players fall off a cliff.  I'm not just worried that both will be able to stay on the court when it matters, I am worried that by the time it matters they won't be good enough any more.

Even if everyone stays healthy and doesn't fall too far with age, I still see gaping holes in the roster.  There is not enough offensive creation, shooting or perimeter defense.  I think Nembhard would get swallowed up in a competitive playoff series.  I think you and I agree that Kyrie is more of undersized shooting guard than a true point guard.  They need a starting quality point guard with size who can shoot and play defense.  Who is that going to be?  You aren't getting that by simply trading PJ.  That player (if there is even one available) is going to cost them every future asset they have, and odds are he is not going to be young.

I'm not sure I understand your comment regarding available draft picks.  I want to do a better job building around Flagg than we did around Luka, and I am worried if we go down the win now path we will have even less assets to work with than we did with Luka.