Mavs 108, Rockets 133

[mavsluvr]

Luka improved his defense and his on/off impact is worse than ever. Mavs are 5.5pts worse on defense when he is on the floor. In both cases it is easy to understand why. They are replaced by all defense/no offense guys like Iwundu, Green and Johnson. They also played a lot of minutes without the guys that are missing.

Agree, this stat doesn't tell you by itself whether a guy is a defensive liability. It is really just about who is in when the player is off the floor. Teams generally put players who are better defenders (although, in many cases, much worse players) to back up Luka/THJ. If they put in a bunch of one-way offensive players, instead of one-way defensive players, than Luka and Tim would have likely have positive on-off stats. Yet, either way, they would have had exactly the same impact on the floor.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Well, you didn't follow the instructions laid out in the assignment, but I'll give you an "A" anyway. Good stuff.

Actually, Omahen deserves the A.  He said the same thing in about a sentence.

[KillerLeft]

Actually, Omahen deserves the A.  He said the same thing in about a sentence.

But neither of you can tell me where Powell ranks on this roster! That's what I want to know. No synergy, no mind given to fit. It's a Saturday at the rec league, you're a team captain, and you have the full mavs roster standing there. How many Mavs are you picking before you point to Powell?

[burekemde]

Of course it is, no agument there. They are way better than Iwundu, Green or Johnson. But the discussion we had was about THJ and Kleber shooting. 

No, they are way better than THJ/Green. THJ/Green replaced JRich/DFS in the starting lineup, and the result was not great I guess we can conclude. To start the game, we did not see Iwundu... Our team and especially that starting lineup played the worst defense of the season, reminiscent of last seasons defense, the starting lineup was destroyed by a tanking Rockets team depleted of its best players. This is no coincidence. In the games we played JRich and DFS, we on other hand had an amazing defense, that we just havent seen before. Again, it is no coincidence we dont see this with THJ on the floor.

Maxi is not left open by the defenses very much, he draws the defender most of the plays and leaves Luka room to operate. This you dont see in the shooting stats, the plays where he is covered. The shooting stat simply tells how many shots he makes per game. If he is covered in the rest of the plays, and draws a defender, this is still great for the team and this doesnt show up in the stats. When Maxi draws a defender most of the game, which he indeed does, this leaves Luka open to attack the paint not being doubled. Or, if doubled, and Maxi is left open, Luka finds him for a 45% shot. Luka attacking single coverage defense or Maxi open shot, are both higher percentage plays than THJ shotting with defender on him. This is smarter basketball offensively.

THJ is a way below average defender. Not sure if you can call him horrible defender, probably not, he is trying and can often stay in front of the opponent, but he gets beat quiet a lot one on one. Its extremely rare that he makes any positive plays on defense. It is no coincidence that our defense is improved by him getting benched and arrival of JRich and JJ. He doesnt show that tanacity, and defensive mentality that is needed not only to control his own defensive game, but be a leader and impact others in defense. On defense, you need all 5 to contribute to this. It is no wonder that when he was out and we had Luka-JRich-DFS-Maxi-WCS that we really started to play really well on defense.

I think his offensive game is wastly overrated here as well. Again it was his moment to shine against a very poor Rockets team and he was inconsistent offensively and ineffective as the teams 2nd option, and we have all seen how weak the defense is. He is a widely inconsistent player in general on offense. He regularly has games where he is inefficient.


I do agree he is  better shooter than Maxi/JRich etc. But its not like he is Peja or something. And because of that reason, he makes a bit more space than Maxi. But the space Maxi etc make is well enough to keep Luka in single coverage. Thats all that is needed.

THJ is an offensive one way player. He is the 6th man coming in to score points, and to build on leads. This is actually the role from the bench he could be really great at.

[dirkfansince1998]

But neither of you can tell me where Powell ranks on this roster! That's what I want to know. No synergy, no mind given to fit. It's a Saturday at the rec league, you're a team captain, and you have the full mavs roster standing there. How many Mavs are you picking before you point to Powell?

Inside or outside? Temperature and conditions? To many variables. I don´ think you will get an answer.

[DanSchwartzgan]

But neither of you can tell me where Powell ranks on this roster! That's what I want to know. No synergy, no mind given to fit. It's a Saturday at the rec league, you're a team captain, and you have the full mavs roster standing there. How many Mavs are you picking before you point to Powell?

That’s the issue.  Who I already drafted and who is on the other team does matter because I have all this lineup data available to me (yeah, I scout rec. league games...I’m super competitive). Also, is the draft in January or April?

With that said, it is hard not to draft Maxi first in January of 2020 based on what we’ve seen so far (at least partially because rec. league games aren’t 48 minutes and rotations don’t come into play).

Speaking of rec. league, I used to play pickup ball with a former Major League Baseball player who’s kid is playing on TV right now.  So, more discussion will have to wait.

[Kammrath]

Speaking of rec. league, I used to play pickup ball with a former Major League Baseball player who’s kid is playing on TV right now.  So, more discussion will have to wait.

[mavsluvr]

THJ is an offensive one way player. He is the 6th man coming in to score points, and to build on leads. This is actually the role from the bench he could be really great at

Thanks for the analysis, burekemde.


Just to boil it down, I'm not quite clear on the point you are supporting. 

For most of your post, it sounds like you are trying to prove that THJ is a trash player who provides negative value, and should not appear on the court. 

Then you end by saying he should be brought off the bench to build on leads. 

I had thought that your previous posts indicated that you recognized THJ's value as a strong offensive player, but now it seems that you have changed your mind, and decided he is little better offensively and much worse defensively, than the other Mavs. 

Color me a little confused about your viewpoint. Happy to be enlightened.

[burekemde]

Thanks for the analysis, burekemde.


Just to boil it down, I'm not quite clear on the point you are supporting. 

For most of your post, it sounds like you are trying to prove that THJ is a trash player who provides negative value, and should not appear on the court. 

Then you end by saying he should be brought off the bench to build on leads. 

I had thought that your previous posts indicated that you recognized THJ's value as a strong offensive player, but now it seems that you have changed your mind, and decided he is little better offensively and much worse defensively, than the other Mavs. 

Color me a little confused about your viewpoint. Happy to be enlightened.

Seems this is misunderstood. He is very valuable indeed by the offense he brings. Just that I think that JRich has more value for the team than THJ. And DFS as well. THJ is stronger offensively, but by a much smaller margin, than the gap between them in the defensive abilities. That is not the same as he has negative overall value. Coming off the bench, I think he is/will have the best value, and this is a positive thing.

I do believe Carlisle has also realised this lately by benching him, and the result was great. So I guess I am not alone in this. And I think this has also lifted the team.

There will almost certainly be games where the offense without THJ doesnt run well, and THJ will come in and contribute to the comebacks, and build on the leads as well in other games where the offense without him runs well. There might/should come periods where he will start again for sure, especially when opponents dont have that big wing. But I do believe the general success of the team will be greater by giving more minutes, and more of the crucial minutes, to JRich and DFS, especially in playoff time.

Another thing that is an issue is the mentality that the Mavs can only play with pure shooters etc. I dont buy this at all. There are many ways to win. And building dynasties in sports usually involves getting dedicated players, playing defense as well as offense. There are many formulas to win, and many of them involve playing defense. We definitely as a team need to adjust the philosophical views of this especially since the two star players are showing two-way abilities.

[mavsluvr]

Seems this is misunderstood. He is very valuable indeed by the offense he brings. Just that I think that JRich has more value for the team than THJ. And DFS as well. THJ is stronger offensively, but by a much smaller margin, than the gap between them in the defensive abilities. That is not the same as he has negative overall value. Coming off the bench, I think he is/will have the best value, and this is a positive thing.

I do believe Carlisle has also realised this lately by benching him, and the result was great. So I guess I am not alone in this. And I think this has also lifted the team.

There will almost certainly be games where the offense without THJ doesnt run well, and THJ will come in and contribute to the comebacks, and build on the leads as well in other games where the offense without him runs well. There might/should come periods where he will start again for sure, especially when opponents dont have that big wing. But I do believe the general success of the team will be greater by giving more minutes, and more of the crucial minutes, to JRich and DFS, especially in playoff time. 

Another thing that is an issue is the mentality that the Mavs can only play with pure shooters etc. I dont buy this at all. There are many ways to win. And building dynasties in sports usually involves getting dedicated players, playing defense as well as offense. There are many formulas to win, and many of them involve playing defense. We definitely as a team need to adjust the philosophical views of this especially since the two star players are showing two-way abilities.

Thanks for the clarification, burekemde. 

I think I understand your position to be that DFS and JRich are better players than THJ, but that THJ is still important when DFS and JRich are not up to stuff, and off the bench. 

Do I understand u correctly?

[burekemde]

Thanks for the clarification, burekemde. 

I think I understand your position to be that DFS and JRich are better players than THJ, but that THJ is still important when DFS and JRich are not up to stuff, and off the bench. 

Do I understand u correctly?

Yes this is exactly how I view this. And having THJ with the bench unit against the opponent bench unit will cover up his defensive deficiencies and further improve our team. Build on leads, and provide comebacks.

But as you mention, if JRich/DFS cant provide the shooting well enough to draw a defender consistently, then I think THJ is better fit. We simply need Luka not to be double teamed.

When we started Luka/JRich/DFS/Maxi/WCS we played defense that I havent seen before. All the shots were heavely contested, there were steals, blocks, deflections, we stopped them all over the place. I got the impression that when KP would be back to replace WCS, this lineup would be so dominant defensively, that even if the offense doesnt run well, they could win consistently just by playing defense.

There are many ways to win. One is to just get pure shooters around KP/Luka and outscore opponents, even by having holes in defense, this is the strategy we are used to. Another one is to win with defense.

An intermediate approach would be to place just one pure shooter like THJ, and say OK, we have other four great defenders. But it doesnt work like that. The defense is only as good as your weakest link. And that is THJ.

In the above lineup, there was no weak link, its the first time I have seen us with 5 good defenders, and thats why it was just different. It was not just the regular D trying to stay in front of the players. This was active D, trying to win with defense, a completely different mindset. This is what I hope we can build on.

I think its not only matter of THJ vs JRich, but also what type of team we want to build and become around Luka and KP. In my honest opinion, we will always have a good offense with them, and we should think much more about the defense. We dont need to have the best offensive rating in the NBA. We need to find a balanced consistent winning formula.

[DallasMaverick]

That’s the issue.  Who I already drafted and who is on the other team does matter because I have all this lineup data available to me (yeah, I scout rec. league games...I’m super competitive). Also, is the draft in January or April?

With that said, it is hard not to draft Maxi first in January of 2020 based on what we’ve seen so far (at least partially because rec. league games aren’t 48 minutes and rotations don’t come into play).

Speaking of rec. league, I used to play pickup ball with a former Major League Baseball player who’s kid is playing on TV right now.  So, more discussion will have to wait.

My son played pickup ball a couple of times with Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech.  Can I claim greatness?

[mavsluvr]

Yes this is exactly how I view this. And having THJ with the bench unit against the opponent bench unit will cover up his defensive deficiencies and further improve our team. Build on leads, and provide comebacks.

But as you mention, if JRich/DFS cant provide the shooting well enough to draw a defender consistently, then I think THJ is better fit. We simply need Luka not to be double teamed.

When we started Luka/JRich/DFS/Maxi/WCS we played defense that I havent seen before. All the shots were heavely contested, there were steals, blocks, deflections, we stopped them all over the place. I got the impression that when KP would be back to replace WCS, this lineup would be so dominant defensively, that even if the offense doesnt run well, they could win consistently just by playing defense.

There are many ways to win. One is to just get pure shooters around KP/Luka and outscore opponents, even by having holes in defense, this is the strategy we are used to. Another one is to win with defense.

An intermediate approach would be to place just one pure shooter like THJ, and say OK, we have other four great defenders. But it doesnt work like that. The defense is only as good as your weakest link. And that is THJ.

In the above lineup, there was no weak link, its the first time I have seen us with 5 good defenders, and thats why it was just different. It was not just the regular D trying to stay in front of the players. This was active D, trying to win with defense, a completely different mindset. This is what I hope we can build on.

I think its not only matter of THJ vs JRich, but also what type of team we want to build and become around Luka and KP. In my honest opinion, we will always have a good offense with them, and we should think much more about the defense. We dont need to have the best offensive rating in the NBA. We need to find a balanced consistent winning formula.

Thank you for elaborating on your views.  I appreciate it. 

I think THJ's offensive skills are going to be necessary in constructing offensive lineups. You feel that the defensive skills of JR and DFS are going to outweigh anything that THJ could add on the offensive end. Guess we'll have to see what happens, before we know for sure. 
Look forward to further conversing with you when we have further informattion

[DanSchwartzgan]

My son played pickup ball a couple of times with Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech.  Can I claim greatness?

I guess it depends on one's standard for greatness.

Around here it isn't a big deal.  If you are booking an event at Hollytree, you are speaking with Randi.  If you have a son of a similar age, he played against Patrick at something (and you may have coached against Patrick if you happened to coach your son).  And if you played in the noon games at Marvin and First Baptist at the right time of year (back in the day), there was a good chance you'd catch Pat there.

FWIW, dad was the better BBall player.  It isn't close.

[Jason Terry]

Yes this is exactly how I view this. And having THJ with the bench unit against the opponent bench unit will cover up his defensive deficiencies and further improve our team. Build on leads, and provide comebacks.

But as you mention, if JRich/DFS cant provide the shooting well enough to draw a defender consistently, then I think THJ is better fit. We simply need Luka not to be double teamed.

When we started Luka/JRich/DFS/Maxi/WCS we played defense that I havent seen before. All the shots were heavely contested, there were steals, blocks, deflections, we stopped them all over the place. I got the impression that when KP would be back to replace WCS, this lineup would be so dominant defensively, that even if the offense doesnt run well, they could win consistently just by playing defense.

There are many ways to win. One is to just get pure shooters around KP/Luka and outscore opponents, even by having holes in defense, this is the strategy we are used to. Another one is to win with defense.

An intermediate approach would be to place just one pure shooter like THJ, and say OK, we have other four great defenders. But it doesnt work like that. The defense is only as good as your weakest link. And that is THJ.

In the above lineup, there was no weak link, its the first time I have seen us with 5 good defenders, and thats why it was just different. It was not just the regular D trying to stay in front of the players. This was active D, trying to win with defense, a completely different mindset. This is what I hope we can build on.

I think its not only matter of THJ vs JRich, but also what type of team we want to build and become around Luka and KP. In my honest opinion, we will always have a good offense with them, and we should think much more about the defense. We dont need to have the best offensive rating in the NBA. We need to find a balanced consistent winning formula.

Agreed on most of this. Hardaway is important to our success as the 3rd scoring option. But we do need to set a tone to start the game and he can be a liability defensively (can’t close out on 3’s). So it makes sense to bring him in off the bench in a superman/JET role to come in and save the day. Hardaway’s minutes would be starter level minutes as 6th man. Sub him in for any of Richardson, DFS or Maxi if they are having a bad night. 

Base lineup:
Luka-Brunson
JRich-Hardaway 
DFS-Hardaway 
Maxi-Hardaway 
KP-WCS

Where the gaps in those Hardaway minutes are filled in by our specialty players(Burke, Johnson, Powell, Green, Iwundu). This would be less of a traditional bench where 5 guys go in and more of a staggered approach. 

Seems weird to sub in THj for Maxi, but that gives us our small ball where Luka guards the 4 lineup

[SkenfromLMF]

I guess it depends on one's standard for greatness.

Around here it isn't a big deal.  If you are booking an event at Hollytree, you are speaking with Randi.  If you have a son of a similar age, he played against Patrick at something (and you may have coached against Patrick if you happened to coach your son).  And if you played in the noon games at Marvin and First Baptist at the right time of year (back in the day), there was a good chance you'd catch Pat there.

FWIW, dad was the better BBall player.  It isn't close.

I had to be in the press box when I coached at Sulphur Springs... fortunately I wasn't responsible for trying to figure out how to stop him. I just had to run video on Friday nights - but those were usually awesome games. And back then video took forever because those teams ran some O. Like 160 plays a game when those 2 spread the field.

Dan did you graduate from WH??

[Mavs2019]

But neither of you can tell me where Powell ranks on this roster! That's what I want to know. No synergy, no mind given to fit. It's a Saturday at the rec league, you're a team captain, and you have the full mavs roster standing there. How many Mavs are you picking before you point to Powell?

Luka
KP
THJ
Richardson
Kleber
DFS
Brunson
WCS

So probably 9th. Maybe he´d move up ahead of WCS, if his Achilles wasn´t shot. He would have more separation from the group of Burke/Boban/Johnson too.

To be honest though, I´d say let´s just play 4 on 4.

[pompelmo]

oh, man!



Great points made about the value of Timmy to this team. The answer basically stands behind the anticipation/perception wall. The THj KillerLeft views is very valuable. But I would disagree that he has proven to be that player on a consistent basis. I am somewhat hopeful by his last year's contribution, but in fact expect him to be inconsistent, and not reliable in playoffs based on his past production and frequent duds he is putting out there. Where people see good overall production, I see a player who won us games which would otherwise be lost and then lost games when we had to depend on him. That is not something I would build on. Hence, the sixth man role for him is perfect to me. (But we already have another albeit lesser random on/off scorer in Burke. More of that later).

On the other hand, if JRich can bring some on-the-move scoring and reliable spot up shooting, alongside his defense and secondary play making, that would also diminish the need of Tim's contribution for this team. People who look at his Philly season will say this is not likely, others will point out his Miami tenure and say it was Philly's mucked up spacing that messed up JRich's output.

Then there is Jalen Brunson. Between Brunson, Burke, JRich and Timmy; depending on what you expect from these guys, you might rather want to upgrade Maxi's spot in Burekemde's line up instead of keeping Timmy, enabling Maxi to back up both big positions. Because we already have other (cheaper) instant offense options from the guard position. Instead of the Dodo - Tim switch, we can always move Luka on to a non threat four and bring in Jalen - Trey for Dodo or Maxi. 

Luka - JRich - Dodo - Maxi - KP
Jalen - JRich - Dodo - Luka - KP

The good thing is, The FO still have more than 50 games to make up their mind. Or 20-25, if they decide to ship out Jojo and Tim's expirings at the deadline.

- 0 -

There is also this side convo about the pseudo-scientific "advanced" stats which I enjoyed a lot. Everybody seems to be aware that these are full of noise and standardize a lot situational data which were quantified by leaving a lot of layers out. It is important to grasp that aspect and know, that our particular coach puts our limited players in situations to succeed and other well rounded players to cover for them, so that we don't end up with conclusions like "Dwight Powell is a better defender than Maxi Kleber". 

A def or off rating of a player (or a pair) is not really the rating of that player. It is an aggregate rating of the line ups that involved the player(s) against various line ups. We already know this but choose to ignore. The assumption is, with a large enough data pool it should give us an idea about the player's actual contribution, yet one can consistently hide a lesser player among better ones and throw a great player out there to carry bench units.

[Branduil]

I more or less agree that if we have KP and Maxi stretching the floor as starters, we don't necessarily need THJ out there, DFS and JRich should be good enough as long as they hit their career averages. OTOH when we have non-shooting bigs like WCS/Powell/Johnson out there we definitely need more firepower on the wings.

[Branduil]

I dunno why Maxi stopped rolling/diving to the rim.  He was catching some Luka lobs the last couple of years.

How many times has Maxi played this year without another big who can't shoot? As we've seen repeatedly, it's really hard to have more than one dedicated rim-runner with Luka. If Maxi rolls to the rim while another big(and his defender) is clogging the paint it's going to go poorly. Presumably we could see it again once KP and Maxi are able to play together.