07-03-2021, 01:29 PM
(07-03-2021, 12:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Conley has always been positively impactful in on/off. His career average is +6.2. This season was double that. His 108 D-Rating is very close to his 109 career average. The bigger swing factor is typically more about who replaces you (or who you replace). Playing with Gobert can help, especially to the extent your backup doesn't play with Gobert. Dirk was always an on/off monster and no matter who you put with him, Dirk's backup was always going to look bad by this metric.
It is hard to prove this up with the data I have access to. Perhaps Kamm can help here. Conley had a 99.1 D-Rating when paired with Gobert. He played very few minutes without Gobert, but the top lineups where this occured, the D Rating was actually better (small sample size alert). Clarkson and Mitchell are sizable on/off negatives defensively. Lineups with Gobert/Mitchell have a D rating of 103.7. Clarkson/Gobert is 100.3. You'd have to eliminate the overlap to really know, but that is tough because Utah typically has two of them on the court most of the time.
I think Conley has been (along with CP3) one of the best small guard defensive players of the last 20 years. It seems to me from the data that Conley and Gobert were an INCREDIBLE defensive duo this past season, making each other better.
My concern with Conley is age, he turns 34 real soon and he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Small guards tend to wear out at his age and minutes (in fact he has already exceeded expectations from my seat).
I think the Mavs were right to chase him when he was a free agent last.....but now? I personally don't think it would be a wise investment.