Playoff Series Imponderables

[mavsluvr]

Good food for Mavs thought ML.  Deserves consideration after a hard fought season.  I'll bite. 


1) Luka's body clearly has room for improvement.  He's a long way from the "cut" he could achieve and that's something very achievable for he and the coaches.  

Mostly though in the playoffs it was clear he didn't have enough Star level help.  In fact he had no star level help.  In one game he was criticized for playing too much hero ball, then the next he was criticized for passing too much even though he was being double and triple teamed.  

By Game 7 he had a big scoring game and he's help, KP and THJ got a good number looks up.  They cratered from the 3 point line while the opponent good looks and 20-10 3 point advantage for 30 insurmountable points of difference.  If Luka's teammates shot better and Mavs pull out the series, this whole thread discussion perspective is different. 

No mystery at all there.  The main Luka problem is not at all about Luka.  Doncic has some good players around him, but no All Star level support.  Was anyone even in consideration for an All Star berth outside of Doncic. 



This one might fit your topic line of imponderable as its a lot harder to quantify. 

Hard to say here but my 2 cents is that Carlisle and Kristaps have to settle on a role that best maximizes his advantages. Is being Ultra tall and athletic with skill still an advantage in the NBA?  I think it can be.  
1) KP has to shoot better, work on his shot over the offseason.  Outside 1st at the 3 point line he needs to be a 40% ish guy at volume and I have to believe he can refine at least a single shot or so in the paint and midrange.  
He shoots the Tim Duncan fundamental bank for example.  If he worked hard enough to be consistent with it then its a real weapon in the short and midrange. Look at Embiid in the midrange. Why couldn't KP do that.  No one can really bother it.  

2) I thought Boban with KP was solid, even better than solid, and gave the Clippers the most problems.  Carlisle let them off the Hook because he didn't go with that when the games were really on the line.  He want back to his more standard rotations which I don't have a problem with except that they are not elite.  The shooters are streaky, not elite, not as good as the Clippers as we saw.  

A strong big skilled inside oriented Center worked better than small ball wings surrounding KP or KP at 5 with a meh PF next to him.  KP at 5 doesn't look like he's up for the intense physical challenge of constantly holding the boards and challenging consistently at the rim.  With a big 5 KP can come in now and then using his length as the secondary help. 

That said, I get that Coach wants to play small, like all the coaches do.  Problem is are you going to have the best talent playing the same style as the top opponents?  Will your wings be better man for man than the elite wings of the top teams?   
If not then counter matching BIG talent that is undervalued may be the Mavs best bet. 



Don't know about the injuries.  It may just be that JR is at best an above replacement level wing, which may not be bad in your rotation at all IF the stars are there.  In Miami he looked like maybe he might be more.  In Philly he had stars to play off and he looked solid, not really great.  That may be where he lands. solid, not great but a lot better if you have your 1st 2nd and 3rd options in performing. 



Kleber having a tough year, from Covid on top of whatever else is undisclosed had a huge impact on the Mavs season coming up short of some expectations and on Luka having too much load.  
He has looked like a real up and coming bright spot at times but whatever the issues are Coach strongly alluded to   here's to hoping he gets full healthy and back on stride. 




Brunson has been good, really good imo for all that could be expected.  Yeah he's not your star.  He's small so he needs some protection out there from bigs. The Clips were definitely a tough matchup with their big athletic wing version of 'small ball' still being too big unless the other positions and provide cover for Jalen. 

Mark Jackson comments that "you don't want to have to ask your backup singers to sing lead".  Brunson did so well as a backup singer that maybe people started expected him to be lead, to play at an All star level against All stars.  Brunson looks good enough to be exceptional with the right support around him. 




That's my guy.  I maintain that he's potentially a much bigger player into the success of the Mavs or some team if they can hurry up and use him before he really hits his big man expiration date.   

Yeah, it was really odd to suddenly in the hottest fire of the playoffs start really using Boban more the way IMO he should have been used all season.   Agree with you the chemistry was lacking which makes it all the more amazing how well the team performed, the general way they held their own for the most part or even better won the +/- during the BIG KP/Boban runs.  

Did they even run this at all during the season?  I don't recall seeing it.  So yeah, if they ran it as a consistent look they go to no doubt the difficulties making the passes into the paint and the turnovers would be greatly decreased.  I thought Boban really helped free up KP.  Yes you're vulnerable to great shooting in the PnR and the 3 but I'm not at all seeing that the Mavs were any worse defensively than they were when they did not play the big lineups.  

The biggest killer runs from the Clippers as I recall came when the JUMBO rotation was NOT on the floor including the 3 point eruptions that killed the Mavs in game 6 and 7.  None of it really had anything to do with slow BIGS.  
The standard rotation guys got cooked on defense but the killer is they also went cold at the worst time on offense, which smart use of the BIG lineups could have avoided. 

Thanks for these insightful and well-considered comments, Dahl. Will address them one by one over the next day or two.