Playoff Series Imponderables

[Dahlsim]

This was one of the oddest of series. Stalwarts of the season vanished. The team featured some of its bit players. The team performed better than expected, then seemed to fold like a cheap tent. What happened, and couldn’t it have been foreseen, at the coaching and/or roster construction levels?

Good food for Mavs thought ML.  Deserves consideration after a hard fought season.  I'll bite. 

LUKA.  Was terrific, easily one of the best players in the postseason. But wore down with his extra minutes. Gasping for breath in fourth quarters, he was unable to consistently deliver in the games’ closing minutes. It was clear why they couldn’t just shorten his minutes — they hemorrhaged points with every second he was off the floor. 

Was this a problem with Luka not taking care of his body? The Mavs failing to have an adequate backup? (See Brunson). Another problem?

1) Luka's body clearly has room for improvement.  He's a long way from the "cut" he could achieve and that's something very achievable for he and the coaches.  

Mostly though in the playoffs it was clear he didn't have enough Star level help.  In fact he had no star level help.  In one game he was criticized for playing too much hero ball, then the next he was criticized for passing too much even though he was being double and triple teamed.  

By Game 7 he had a big scoring game and he's help, KP and THJ got a good number looks up.  They cratered from the 3 point line while the opponent good looks and 20-10 3 point advantage for 30 insurmountable points of difference.  If Luka's teammates shot better and Mavs pull out the series, this whole thread discussion perspective is different. 

No mystery at all there.  The main Luka problem is not at all about Luka.  Doncic has some good players around him, but no All Star level support.  Was anyone even in consideration for an All Star berth outside of Doncic. 

PORZINGIS. Counted on to be the second star, KP was not necessarily that even in the regular season, but he disappeared in the playoffs. Serving as a decoy has value, certainly, and we saw that in some of the games. But taking KP out of the offense and into the corner meant there was a 20-point, 10-rebound hole in what one would expect a second option to contribute. Also, very little rim protection. 

Very disappointing. Can he still serve as a force offensively? Something wrong with his role? Is he too limited in moving around to defend any more? Ultra-tall guys (over 7’1”) generally don’t prove durable in the NBA — is KP past his sell-by date?

This one might fit your topic line of imponderable as its a lot harder to quantify. 

Imponderable - definition is - not ponderable : incapable of being weighed or evaluated with exactness.

Hard to say here but my 2 cents is that Carlisle and Kristaps have to settle on a role that best maximizes his advantages. Is being Ultra tall and athletic with skill still an advantage in the NBA?  I think it can be.  
1) KP has to shoot better, work on his shot over the offseason.  Outside 1st at the 3 point line he needs to be a 40% ish guy at volume and I have to believe he can refine at least a single shot or so in the paint and midrange.  
He shoots the Tim Duncan fundamental bank for example.  If he worked hard enough to be consistent with it then its a real weapon in the short and midrange. Look at Embiid in the midrange. Why couldn't KP do that.  No one can really bother it.  

2) I thought Boban with KP was solid, even better than solid, and gave the Clippers the most problems.  Carlisle let them off the Hook because he didn't go with that when the games were really on the line.  He want back to his more standard rotations which I don't have a problem with except that they are not elite.  The shooters are streaky, not elite, not as good as the Clippers as we saw.  

A strong big skilled inside oriented Center worked better than small ball wings surrounding KP or KP at 5 with a meh PF next to him.  KP at 5 doesn't look like he's up for the intense physical challenge of constantly holding the boards and challenging consistently at the rim.  With a big 5 KP can come in now and then using his length as the secondary help. 

That said, I get that Coach wants to play small, like all the coaches do.  Problem is are you going to have the best talent playing the same style as the top opponents?  Will your wings be better man for man than the elite wings of the top teams?   
If not then counter matching BIG talent that is undervalued may be the Mavs best bet. 

RICHARDSON. A guy who started most of the season’s games was first benched and then reduced to a cameo role, being a negative on the court, prone to turnovers and missed shots.

Was this first noticed at the end of the season? Was he dealing with an undisclosed injury? How did he fall off the face of the earth like that?

Don't know about the injuries.  It may just be that JR is at best an above replacement level wing, which may not be bad in your rotation at all IF the stars are there.  In Miami he looked like maybe he might be more.  In Philly he had stars to play off and he looked solid, not really great.  That may be where he lands. solid, not great but a lot better if you have your 1st 2nd and 3rd options in performing. 

MAXI.  Initially tasked with guarding Kawhi, he was far from a stopper, and was eventually mostly replaced. Offensively, he seemed afraid of the moment, reluctant to take open shots. Considered one of the pillars of the team, he didn’t make the hoped-for impact. 

Kleber was fighting injuries, which was evidently a lingering thing. Rick Carlisle: He was battling something all season long. One week it was one thing. The next week was another thing. It was always something. 

Was this vanishing performance accounted for by playing hurt? Or, after two postseasons of not showing up, is the stage just too big for him? Should they have foreseen this, and given Kawhi some different looks earlier?

Kleber having a tough year, from Covid on top of whatever else is undisclosed had a huge impact on the Mavs season coming up short of some expectations and on Luka having too much load.  
He has looked like a real up and coming bright spot at times but whatever the issues are Coach strongly alluded to   here's to hoping he gets full healthy and back on stride. 

BRUNSON. Jalen was one of the best offensive players in the season, but was more or less played off the floor in the postseason. This seems like one that could have been predicted. Miniature point guards have not generally fared well in terms of making deep runs in the playoffs. The Clippers’ long, rangy players and extreme depth eclipsed him, and at best, he managed to create a few shots for himself. 


Cuban has stated that the team needs another playmaker. Was Brunson’s failure to perform a quirk of the Clippers matchup, or is he too small/not good enough for starter minutes in the playoffs as a whole?

Brunson has been good, really good imo for all that could be expected.  Yeah he's not your star.  He's small so he needs some protection out there from bigs. The Clips were definitely a tough matchup with their big athletic wing version of 'small ball' still being too big unless the other positions and provide cover for Jalen. 

Mark Jackson comments that "you don't want to have to ask your backup singers to sing lead".  Brunson did so well as a backup singer that maybe people started expected him to be lead, to play at an All star level against All stars.  Brunson looks good enough to be exceptional with the right support around him. 

BOBAN.  Bobi earned a lot of DNP-CDs during the season, and was suddenly a featured center in the playoffs. He brought some “easy” offense and a surprise look for the Clippers. However, the chemistry between him and the rest of the team was lacking. The Mavs committed numerous turnovers trying to force the ball into him, as passes were off-target, or Bobi couldn’t hold on to the ball. 

Could Boban’s heavy usage in the playoffs have been foreseen, and the team sharpened up that look? Or could the passing/retaining skills have been a matter of focus?

That's my guy.  I maintain that he's potentially a much bigger player into the success of the Mavs or some team if they can hurry up and use him before he really hits his big man expiration date.   

Yeah, it was really odd to suddenly in the hottest fire of the playoffs start really using Boban more the way IMO he should have been used all season.   Agree with you the chemistry was lacking which makes it all the more amazing how well the team performed, the general way they held their own for the most part or even better won the +/- during the BIG KP/Boban runs.  

Did they even run this at all during the season?  I don't recall seeing it.  So yeah, if they ran it as a consistent look they go to no doubt the difficulties making the passes into the paint and the turnovers would be greatly decreased.  I thought Boban really helped free up KP.  Yes you're vulnerable to great shooting in the PnR and the 3 but I'm not at all seeing that the Mavs were any worse defensively than they were when they did not play the big lineups.  

The biggest killer runs from the Clippers as I recall came when the JUMBO rotation was NOT on the floor including the 3 point eruptions that killed the Mavs in game 6 and 7.  None of it really had anything to do with slow BIGS.  
The standard rotation guys got cooked on defense but the killer is they also went cold at the worst time on offense, which smart use of the BIG lineups could have avoided. 

Maybe these questions are just some of those mysteries of the universe that will never be solved.