12-31-2020, 03:45 AM
(12-31-2020, 12:57 AM)pompelmo Wrote: Having much deeper and thorough data available to him, why would Rick start the Clippers series with KP-Maxi pairing if it didn't work? (which, probably added more negative to their overall plus/minus as a pairing).
The problem with NBA stats is comparing KP-Dwight's on/off against Cleveland to KP-Maxi's on/off against Zion - Favors, then assume with large enough data in the pool, each pairing has played enough against teams of different strengths and weakness that it is comparable
Do you really think (or trust the suggestive data that) starting KP-Dwight would have done better (or let me rephrase, wouldn't have done much worse) against the Clippers than KP-Maxi if Powell was available?
Lots of problems here.
The LAC series didn't add anything to the negative data for KP/Maxi because the data being used is regular season (a much larger sample size).
The data doesn't somehow narrow in on KP/Powell's start against Cleveland vs. KP/Maxi's start against NO. It tracks every moment of every game of the entire season. KP/Powell wasn't just better when they started together. They were better when they played at any point in any game together.
If you are willing to grant any predictive power to player combos and on/off stats, the data do suggest KP/Powell would have been better (or less bad) against LAC. The Mavs do believe in the predictive power of these stats BTW. They once employed the guy who wrote the book. They absolutely do have better and more thorough data than is publicly available and it certainly might have said Maxi is a better matchup against this particular player or that particular team. But we don't have that data (or at least I don't).
As to why Carlisle "choose" to start KP/Maxi in the playoffs? I'd suggest it was because he didn't have much choice with Powell and WCS both unavailable.