(12-30-2020, 04:37 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: I started down this path earlier today, but work intervened.
Put another way, I think the board spends too much time focused on who plays the first six minutes of each half. Until we get a third star, Carlisle is going to stagger KP and Luka for much of the game. So, quite a few minutes will be played with one star, but not the other. Who plays best with which star and how the rotation sets up for the "star reunion" at the end of each half is equally important as who gets announced with the starters. BTW, this isn't exclusive to the 20/21 Mavs. For years we saw Terry (and Ginobli) come off the bench because it set up end of game situations better than if they started. Dragic is clearly the best PG on the Miami roster and started during the playoffs. But, he's coming off the bench again in the regular season because it keeps him fresh and allows other (Herro) to try to expand their game in the mean time.
As to what should happen regarding THJ or Max or Powell or DFS...
Powell was by far the best pairing with KP among starters last season (Brunson was better, but not a starter). Maxi was the worst pairing with KP among regulars who are still here (Wright was worse). A closing lineup of KP/Maxi makes sense on paper, but a year ago it didn't actually work very well.
I think THJ is in a tough position in his contract year. Winning means Dallas has to make a priority of integrating JRich well. Plays have to be called that put him in good positions and that probably means fewer of the opportunities THJ got last season. Never fear, THJ and JRich won't share the floor for 32 minutes. They might not share the floor for half of those minutes. The good news (to your point) is KP/THJ was a good two man pairing last year.
I really think the w/o KP minutes will be Luka with Maxi/WCS (or Johnson)/JRich and Burke.
The w/o Luka minutes will be KP with Powell, Brunson, THJ and DFS.
But Carlisle is going to keep trying different pairings until they have good internal data on what works and what doesn't. That can't really even begin in earnest until KP returns.
I really appreciate your posts on this topic (staggered lineups). I've always been aware that the lineups were staggered but never wanted to spend the time to chart that out in detail. But your "w/ Luka" and "w/ KP" suggestion simplifies things and makes it easier to think and talk about. I'm looking forward to see how w/ Luka and w/ KP eventually shakes out.