12-30-2021, 03:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-30-2021, 03:51 PM by BackToSquareOne.)
(12-30-2021, 02:58 PM)Fuerza1 Wrote: 4-5 without Luka is commendable. I look back at the 2010-11 season that was literally a championship roster yet they went 2-7 without Dirk when he got hurt.
The game never comes down to one play but breaking down the Metu game-winner, Ntilikina played way too tight against a player who hasn't made a 3PT in over 2 weeks.
Dirk said during his commentary stint that leaving the corner 3 guy is a cardinal sin in today's NBA.
At the end of the day, Powell had a choice to make: give Fox the layup to force overtime, which still might have been contested by Ntilikina or give Metu (made two 3's earlier) the easiest shot in the game and potentially a Kings victory. They say he went to Stanford?
tbh, it's really not obvious even in the cold light of day.
Suppose DP doesn't make the rotation to fence off the drive. (As said, that's a standard part of the Mavs defence.) Let's give Fox 70% chance of making the lay-up or missing and making 2 free throws, a 10% chance of making the lay-up and a free throw, 20% misses or gets fouled and misses and misses a FT. Let's give the Mavs 50% in an OT game. That gives the Mavs 35% + 20% = 55% win equity.
Let's give Metu a 45% chance on a completely uncontested corner 3 on that night. That also gives the Mavs 55% win equity.
Sure, you can argue the numbers should be different, but I don't know which way.