MavsBoard

KINGS DEFEAT MAVS C-TEAM WITH BUZZER-BEATER

The Mavs face the Kings with a hollowed-out roster, listing nine absences -- Luka, THJ, Maxi, McLaughlin, Burke, Boban, Brandon Knight, Bullock, and Willie. Reggie reportedly exited COVID protocols but was inactive. Isaiah Thomas appeared as a new ten-day.  The Kings are on the second night of a back-to-back, having defeated OKC the previous evening. 

The Mavs were in it until the last play, but gave up a game-winning three in what the broadcasters termed a perfect storm in the last two possessions. 


GAME NOTES

Starting lineup. Brunson-Ntilikina-DFS-KP-Powell

FIRST QUARTER

KP turns the ball over, trying to post up. — DFS and FN both hit from range. Mavs off to a hot shooting start, 4-6 from three. 

17-10  6:59

Kings have already committed 16 fouls, less than five minutes in. — Ugly turnover when Powell tries to find DFS from the corner. — This Sac team look like they’re part of a middle school league. — The lineup that Dorian anchors is on the floor. Not gonna lie, I don't love it. — Isaiah gets on the board with a jumper. 

23-15  2:35

Mavs stay on top of the hapless Kings, which is cool, but man, I’m surprised the NBA has the nerve to put this kind of hideous basketball product on the floor. SMH. 

30-20 after one

KP leads Dallas with 9 points. Mavs shooting 52%. 

SECOND QUARTER

Sac make a mini-push. 

35-30  8:49

Grotesque possession ending in a shot clock violation by Mavs. You would think these guys had never played together, or something. — Sac tie the game with a transition bucket. Sac on a 14-4 run. — Bagley posts up IT. Doesn’t end well for the Mavs. Make that 16-4. — Another Kings basket results in a Mavs timeout. 

39-43  3:34

Mavs get back to level points with a DP transition slam. But that's about it. 

43-55  HT

Absolutely putrid second quarter for Dallas, which loses the period 13-35. Sac ends the period on a 30-8 run. Mavs have a disadvantage of 6-14 in rebounds, 0-9 in FTA. Completed 6 of their 21 shot attempts. Woof. 

For the half, KP and Brunson lead the team with 9 points apiece, although KP is 3-10 from the field. DFS has 3 fouls. Mitchell has 12 off the bench for the Kings. IT (9) and Pinson (3) the only ten-days to get minutes for Dallas. The broadcast teams shows the shot chart, with all the red x's — I don’t know how they dare. 

THIRD QUARTER

Broadcast team saying that Kings are the worst third-quarter team in the league. Let’s pin our hopes on that. 

Sac offense really taking advantage of Brunson. — DFS called for his fifth foul three minutes in. Aargh. 

49-62  8:43

Broadcasters nattering on about Tim Tams and other dipping food. Meanwhile, Mavs on a 7-0 run. Maybe Dameris has just lost interest. 

56-62 7:18

Brunson makes it 9-0 before Buddy Hield breaks the drought for Sac. — Fox in foul trouble with a shove on KP. — Mavs surging, pull within two. — Mavs take the lead on a Sterling three. — Four points in the last 2:54, all by Sac, but Mavs back in it. 

69-72 after three

Mavs win the third 26-17. Brunson with 11 in the period. It’s anyone’s game.

FOURTH QUARTER

KP with a couple of buckets for Dallas. — Brunson crosses over Richaun Holmes. — Green has a bad turnover, gets bailed out by Damian Jones. 

81-79 7:08

DFS returns, playing with five fouls, hits from the corner. — DFS with a slam! — DP misses a pair of free throws, Harrison Barnes ties the game. 

88-88 4:09

Starting lineup on the floor. KP hits two free throws. — Mavs get a stop on Barnes. — KP post up attempt over Barnes rims out. — Holmes draws a foul off a second-chance try. Ties the game. — Josh on for Powell. DFS turns it over. Powell back on. Missed three by Kings. — JB can’t finish a jumper. Fox drives it in on the other end. 

90-92 1:22

Brunson ties it for the Mavs. — Powell blocks a shot at the rim. — KP fouled on a jump shot. Makes ‘em both.

94-92 33 seconds

Mavs successfully defend shot by Barnes. Timeout. Mavs advance the ball. Brunson holds. KP misses, shot doesn’t hit the rim, shot clock violation. Kings timeout.  Four seconds left. 

Kings advance. Mavs commit foul to give. 3.8 seconds. Dorian fouls out. 

OH NO!!!! Kings win the game on an open corner three by Metu from Fox at the buzzer. 

94-95 FT

KP dominates all scorers with 13 points in the fourth, but the Mavs lose. 


ANALYSIS

Last Sequence. Dameris calls it a worst-case scenario for the Mavs. With 28 seconds left, Brunson holds; by the time he gets the ball to KP, KP bobbles it and then has to take a tough shot that doesn’t draw iron, resulting in a dead ball turnover. When the Kings take the ball with 4 seconds left, Dorian takes their foul to give, fouling out and running only .5 second off the clock. Chances were good that the Kings wouldn’t beat them with a Metu three, but what do you know, they did. 

Player Notes. Brunson led all scorers with 25 points. KP was a close second with 24, albeit on 8-19 shooting (1-6 from three). He drew a game-high 8 FTA, completing 7. DFS was also in double figures with 11, despite being limited to 10 minutes in the second half, due to foul trouble. Isaiah Thomas (13 min) and Theo Pinson (7 min) were the only hardship subs to play for Dallas. It was a starter-heavy game, with the bench scoring only 23 points. 

The Mavs have now lost 9 straight clutch games. 


OBSERVATIONS

TV comments mostly related to the late game strategy/execution. 

Kidd. Burned their last timeout at 28 seconds to get JB back in the game for Green, who was in as a defensive situational sub. They wanted Brunson to take the last shot, but they didn’t get the switch they wanted, and KP ended up having to take a rushed attempt and committing a SCV turnover. Thought they had a good plan for the last defensive possessions, but Fox made a heck of a play, kicking out to Metu. 

Bally. Questioning the clutch strategies. 

— Did Brunson hold the ball a little too long on that last Mavs possession? KP took the shot with 4.8 seconds left on the shot clock. 

— Should someone besides DFS have taken the foul to give? It was his sixth foul, and maybe they didn’t need to even have him out there for that 30-second interval before the last possession. 

— Should they have waited another second to take the last foul? In retrospect, there was time for that, but Kidd said the plan was to take it at the first opportunity. 

— Should Powell have helped off Metu? If they had given up a layup, they could have taken the game to overtime, but a three cost them the game. Hard to really blame Powell making that decision in the moment. Frankie had been beaten by Fox, and a player’s instincts would be to help on the layup, rather than sticking to a poor jump shooter. Brunson didn't rotate over when Powell backed off Metu. 

Conclusion. Nine straight clutch losses. This is where the Mavs really miss Luka. 


I guess this is what it looks like when the NBA keeps up a normal schedule during a weeks-long COVID surge. Night after night, decimated rosters on most teams are scrabbling together contests being sold as high-level basketball games. Yuck. The results seem so random from one night to the next. I’m really pretty over it. 


NEXT. The Mavs face the self-same Kings in Sacramento on New Year’s Eve. 

(12-30-2021, 02:00 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Conclusion. Nine straight clutch. This is where the Mavs really miss Luka. 

Genuine question: how many of those nine were with Luka in the line up?

(12-30-2021, 02:00 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I guess this is what it looks like when the NBA keeps up a normal schedule during a weeks-long COVID surge. Night after night, decimated rosters on most teams are scrabbling together contests being sold as high-level basketball games. Yuck. The results seem so random from one night to the next. I’m really pretty over it. 

We get it. You hate these games and appear to think there is nothing to see in them.

Nevertheless, at least judging by the discord game threads, many posters (there) think there is a flood of new information being provided by these games. They are fervidly, albeit maybe over-enthustiastically, trying to parse it.

Yes, these games aren't usual, regular season NBA games. However, almost all of the 'normal' Mavs games this year have given almost no information about this year's 'real' Mavs, since in them at least one of KP and Luka has been either out or hobbled.

It's reasonable to be condescending about the current games. On the other hand, it seems neglectful to discard them as a source of information.

(12-30-2021, 02:57 AM)BackToSquareOne Wrote: [ -> ]it seems neglectful to discard them as a source of information.

I don't believe ML depicts that it is a complete lack of information. In my view, it provides useful information. So does training as well. Any basketball activity provides information for the coaches to evaluate the players, what they are capable of. However, this is far far less information than the information obtained when every team is at full strength and both teams play in a completely different way. So many anomalies happen once squads are not at full strength, and the level of play decreases notably. This is seen all around the NBA at the moment, and you see players performing better than usually dont perform as this when the level of play increases. We see things we would never see in playoff series with teams at full strength. However some things also could be extracted from this that can be translated to more competitive games.

It's definitely a valuable source of information, but correctly described by ML as far less information than what you get in full strength games. So many things that you can do, that you wont be able to do when the situation changes. The key is extracting the useful information that can work when everyone is back at full strenght and employ this down the road.

That last shot was so wide open it was ridiculous. What a defensive breakdown. JB didn’t look like he was guarding anyone.

I don't think the last defense was a problem in a big picturel. Neither was bad last offensive posession. The game was lost before. I found this one extremely boring and bad game from both sides. Kings look dysfunctional. 

Mavs defense was good, rebounding was good, but offense is bad. Kings are fourth worst defensive team in the league, yet Mavs managed to score only 94 points against them. People complain that Luka lead team is playing slow yet pace in this game pace was way slower - average Mavs pace for the season is 96 (29th in the league), yesterday it was 90. KP had 33 % usage rate and EFG of 44 %. Young wings showed again they can play, but they are far from starter material. They should be getting their minutes, though!

I think, in the last offensive possession, KP took a shot to beat the shot clock buzzer which failed to hit the rim. The Mavs were called for a shot clock violation. The game clock was adjusted to the remaining game time.

I think JB read the play wrong, was too tentative, and held the ball too long. I thought he would take the last second shot, but instead passed the ball to KP on the post who had top little time to create any good shot.

I think they should have run a play instead of just running the clock, preferably something going to the basket. A foul and two clutch free throws would have sealed the game.

I think that the last defensive possession was bad, but the game was lost at the last offensive possession.

I also don't understand the timeout call after the rebound. For me, I would have just took care of the ball and ran a play instead of calling a timeout.

Bottom line, it's a bad loss.  They get to redeem themselves on New Year's Eve.  Maybe they get some players back.

I watched the last play again.  I really don't blame Jalen.  I don't think he had enough time to get to Metu even if he tried.    One thing I noticed, why was Josh Green face guarding Haliburtan at the other free throw lane?   Kings made it a 4 on 4 and the Mavs took Green out of the play.  

Frank got beat pretty easily, but having Fox get the ball in the middle of the floor with everyone spread out is really hard to defend.   

I am not saying it just because he made the shot, but I have liked what I have seen from Metu.   I know he isn't shooting it well this year.  But when I see him play he is a big guy who looks pretty skilled.   I think he is going to have a solid NBA career.  Is it too early to wonder if my all in move is Haliburtan in a few years?   Ok, maybe not the tier of player I am looking for, yet.   But I really like his game.   I think he is another guy when you surround him with a good team, just finds ways to be productive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUjcaDO4XoA

(12-30-2021, 09:05 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I watched the last play again.  I really don't blame Jalen.  I don't think he had enough time to get to Metu even if he tried.    One thing I noticed, why was Josh Green face guarding Haliburtan at the other free throw lane?   Kings made it a 4 on 4 and the Mavs took Green out of the play.  

Frank got beat pretty easily, but having Fox get the ball in the middle of the floor with everyone spread out is really hard to defend.   

I am not saying it just because he made the shot, but I have liked what I have seen from Metu.   I know he isn't shooting it well this year.  But when I see him play he is a big guy who looks pretty skilled.   I think he is going to have a solid NBA career.  Is it too early to wonder if my all in move is Haliburtan in a few years?   Ok, maybe not the tier of player I am looking for, yet.   But I really like his game.   I think he is another guy when you surround him with a good team, just finds ways to be productive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUjcaDO4XoA

I agree about Metu.  He spent a couple of seasons in SA with Pop, so I wonder why they gave up on him?  SA is great at finding diamonds in the rough.

(12-30-2021, 02:57 AM)BackToSquareOne Wrote: [ -> ]We get it. You hate these games and appear to think there is nothing to see in them.

Yep. If these recent games are "yuck" I am not sure what horrible adjective to use to describe the games earlier in the season....disgusting? Abominable? Repugnant? Loathsome? These recent Mavs are soooo much more interesting and entertaining to watch and the basketball isn't nearly as ugly overall.

(12-30-2021, 02:00 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Burned their last timeout at 28 seconds to get JB back in the game for Green, who was in as a defensive situational sub.

That's what Kidd said, but Brunson was already in the game. In fact, Brunson called the timeout (simultaneous with Kidd).

(12-30-2021, 10:12 AM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]That's what Kidd said, but Brunson was already in the game. In fact, Brunson called the timeout (simultaneous with Kidd).

Correct. I was reporting what Kidd said, but in fact, it appears he took the timeout to get KP in for the last offensive possession. 

Bringing focus to the sadness and disappointment of Kidd feeling that he had to sub KP out on defensive possessions in favor of keeping Powell in during the last minute. I'm not even saying that was the wrong decision.

(12-30-2021, 09:05 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Frank got beat pretty easily, but having Fox get the ball in the middle of the floor with everyone spread out is really hard to defend.   

I remember when the Mavs used to get someone in the middle of the floor with everyone spread out. Those were the days.

Post-game pods and articles having a finger-pointing extravaganza on the last plays. --

Popular targets (in alphabetical order), with defenses offered in parentheses. 

Basketball Gods -- The Mavs strategized and executed reasonably, but the BG chose to rain on their parade, and all the cookies crumbled in the Kings' favor, to mix a couple of metaphors. (Get real, these were terrible possessions.)

Brunson -- Holding the ball too long on the offensive possession. Then, not rotating to Metu when Powell helped off him. (Should have rotated, but probably didn't have time to get a meaningful contest in.) 

Green -- Face-guarding his man in "San Diego," thus taking himself out of the play. (Eh. Might have been a mistake, but probably didn't have that much effect.)

Kidd -- Possible poor coaching decisions:

     Burning the last timeout with 28 seconds left just to run the clock out. 
     Taking KP off the floor for defensive possessions. 
     Directing Brunson to holding the ball instead of running a play (KP said maybe they should have just let Brunson go to work, but he knew he could get a shot off and thought it was a reasonable decision). 
     Leaving the last offensive possession to a KP post-up, which we know has a significant chance of not ending well. (Kidd says they wanted Brunson to take the last shot, but it didn't work out). 
     Having DFS take the foul to give, causing his best defender to foul out. Popular choice for an indefensible decision. 
     Instructing the team to foul right away, when Halliburton was heading away from the basket over on the sideline (maybe he thought he needed to keep things simple, instead of expecting his players to do a bunch of quick thinking)
     Not instructing his players to guard the three-point line, even it meant giving up a layup (mathematically, some feel the risk was justified).

Ntilikina -- Closing out too aggressively on Fox around half-court, thus getting blown by on a first-step, straight-line drive. Seems to be a popular choice for the largest share of the blame pie. 

Porzingis -- Not being able to stay on the floor during critical defensive possessions. (Arguably a Kidd mistake.)

Powell -- Helping off Metu, thus risking a game-losing three, rather than a game-tying layup. (Arguably the right play, no one rotated over.) Being Dwight Powell. (Really?)

(12-30-2021, 10:57 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Powell -- Helping off Metu, thus risking a game-losing three, rather than a game-tying layup. (Arguably the right play, no one rotated over.) Being Dwight Powell. (Really?)

It's tempting to let the results lead our thinking here, but this was the right play, and I'm not sure it is debatable, really.

---

I said it in the game thread, but I'll repeat here:

That defensive possession sucked, but the previous offensive possession was far worse. And honestly, the real reason the Mavericks lost this game is the 2nd quarter, where they only managed to score 13 points. That's ridiculous.

(12-30-2021, 05:47 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]I don't believe ML depicts that it is a complete lack of information. In my view, it provides useful information. So does training as well. Any basketball activity provides information for the coaches to evaluate the players, what they are capable of. However, this is far far less information than the information obtained when every team is at full strength and both teams play in a completely different way. So many anomalies happen once squads are not at full strength, and the level of play decreases notably. This is seen all around the NBA at the moment, and you see players performing better than usually dont perform as this when the level of play increases. We see things we would never see in playoff series with teams at full strength. However some things also could be extracted from this that can be translated to more competitive games.

It's definitely a valuable source of information, but correctly described by ML as far less information than what you get in full strength games. So many things that you can do, that you wont be able to do when the situation changes. The key is extracting the useful information that can work when everyone is back at full strenght and employ this down the road.

One could argue that the key issue with lack of predictive info is not having NBA-quality opposition in these games. (This wasn't so much the case with Sac, but most opponents in this stretch have been at far less than full strength.) It might be a fun frolic to watch our guys do a lot of cool stuff against Portland's deep bench and ten-days, but I don't know how likely it is that they replicate any of that against the likes of Golden State or the Bucks at any normal level of strength.  

As you mention, the important thing is to separate the noise from the meaningful info, and hopefully the Mavs are doing that. Meanwhile, that's not our job as fans, unless it interests us to do so, and we shouldn't be deterred from enjoying whatever entertainment value we may find in this odd season interval.

---

(12-30-2021, 11:02 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]It's tempting to let the results lead our thinking here, but this was the right play, and I'm not sure it is debatable, really.

---

I said it in the game thread, but I'll repeat here:

That defensive possession sucked, but the previous offensive possession was far worse. And honestly, the real reason the Mavericks lost this game is the 2nd quarter, where they only managed to score 13 points. That's ridiculous.

Preach it, bro.

(12-30-2021, 07:47 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think the last defense was a problem in a big picturel. Neither was bad last offensive posession. The game was lost before. I found this one extremely boring and bad game from both sides. Kings look dysfunctional. 

Mavs defense was good, rebounding was good, but offense is bad. Kings are fourth worst defensive team in the league, yet Mavs managed to score only 94 points against them. People complain that Luka lead team is playing slow yet pace in this game pace was way slower - average Mavs pace for the season is 96 (29th in the league), yesterday it was 90. KP had 33 % usage rate and EFG of 44 %. Young wings showed again they can play, but they are far from starter material. They should be getting their minutes, though!

I don't always even notice pace during the game, but this was so slow it was painful to watch. 

I guess I should re-phrase that to say that I personally found it painfully slow. I guess some people liked it, and hey, I'm happy for them.

(12-30-2021, 10:07 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Yep. If these recent games are "yuck" I am not sure what horrible adjective to use to describe the games earlier in the season....disgusting? Abominable? Repugnant? Loathsome? These recent Mavs are soooo much more interesting and entertaining to watch and the basketball isn't nearly as ugly overall.

Thing is that the results are just as bad or even worse. I am just as excited to see different faces on the court and a team that seemingly plays with more energy but in the end it is not winning them a lot of games.
I am all for a free the youth approach. Even if the Mavs might end up in the play in or even miss the playoffs. Player development has to be the focal point right now. More minutes for Frank, Moses and Green. Clean up the roster and add guys like Pinson or Chriss to the list or use the second (in my opinion both, McLaughlin hasn´t shown anything) two-way spot to steal one of the more promising hardship signings from another team (we should probably start a list).

It´s great that players are happier and the team is sharing the ball. Problem is that the execution (especially in crucial moments) is really bad. Maybe it is about the scheme and the coaches. Maybe about the lack of experience and ever changing lineups (cannot be avoided right now).

(12-30-2021, 07:47 AM)RedFlag41 Wrote: [ -> ]I think, in the last offensive possession, KP took a shot to beat the shot clock buzzer which failed to hit the rim. The Mavs were called for a shot clock violation. The game clock was adjusted to the remaining game time.

I think JB read the play wrong, was too tentative, and held the ball too long. I thought he would take the last second shot, but instead passed the ball to KP on the post who had top little time to create any good shot.

I think they should have run a play instead of just running the clock, preferably something going to the basket. A foul and two clutch free throws would have sealed the game.

I think that the last defensive possession was bad, but the game was lost at the last offensive possession.

I also don't understand the timeout call after the rebound. For me, I would have just took care of the ball and ran a play instead of calling a timeout.

Yeah, good comments. 

Agree that a lot is being put on the last minute, which I guess is pretty much the nature of the beast. 

As far as the overall reasons why the Mavs lost, there is a lot we could analyze, but it doesn't really seem worth it, given that we're not likely to ever see these lineups again once the COVID spell is over. For a quick take, review the second quarter.

(12-30-2021, 11:27 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, good comments. 

Agree that a lot is being put on the last minute, which I guess is pretty much the nature of the beast. 

As far as the overall reasons why the Mavs lost, there is a lot we could analyze, but it doesn't really seem worth it, given that we're not likely to ever see these lineups again once the COVID spell is over. For a quick take, review the second quarter.

In almost every game there is at least one extended stretch where the offense disappears and things get extremely ugly.   I am not sure if this is a fatal flaw or if it is something that can be improved when everyone is healthy.  Or if adding a guy like Dragic can help reduce this a little by having another guy who can create a little.  My hope is we find out with Dragic.  It may help us understand if it is a structural problem or something that can be ironed out moving forward by adding more creators.