2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[StepBackJay]

The other thing you could say is well with 2 bigs you get killed in transition. Well Mavs already DO get killed in transition and I think we have seen a shift in the NBA to where now teams just take fouls in transition. I believe there is probably analytics to say its better to just take fouls instead of worrying about trying to stop a fast break.

KP is already at the perimeter, not crashing the offensive glass most offensive possessions so it's easier for him to get back. You are trading some offensive boards for transition opportunities but I like the trade-off especially given the shift I mentioned where teams just take fouls in transition.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think KP contract is nearly as equaly bad as Kemba one, so I would never consider it without significant assets going our way. He is way older, same injury liability, higher yearly number taking away more of our cap space, doesn't play defense. The only advantage is one year shorter contract.

If Boston takes JRich with KP, is that “significant”?  I’m thinking KP/JRich for Kemba + Someone (RWIll, GWill or Nesmith).  Saves us cap space and gives us that secondary piece who eventually becomes the main focus of the trade.

[StepBackJay]

"some" is putting it realllllllly lightly.


Being bad at something is not an excuse to be worse at it.


We are on the same page here, but I believe you can solve this problem without creating another one.  It just requires KP wearing a different jersey.

Well my first option would be KP on another team. I am going to stand by my 2 big assessment, I think it can work. It would work better with more nimble guys like Holmes or Turner but I think it could work even with Adams. Obv if Mavs don't go this route then who knows but we do believe they have interest in Holmes and Turner.

They also have interest in Collins and I am just not there. I think you are just going to give up baskets at the rim and on the perimeter. Why not take away one? It's easier to take away the paint. Part of the reason why Mavs stink at perimeter shots is all the rotations that have to happen when the other team uses a 1-dribble move to get past the first line of defense which causes an immediate scramble. Drop coverage with KP has not been good. We will see, it's hard to judge something before it happens. We don't know whether Mavs will go bigger (Holmes) or try to upgrade Maxi's spot with Collins.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Well my first option would be KP on another team

Then we certainly agree on the big picture.

Not really trying to come at you or anything, I enjoy your posts.  I just think the league has moved way too far away from a two big system right now to try to deploy it ourselves.  You can really only pull it off with guys like Giannis or AD who can basically guard anyone on the planet.

I agree that our drop coverage has not been good but as long as KP is on the floor then you're going to see it.  Holmes and Turner can be more switchable which is what I'd like to see out of our defense but when the playoffs roll around then teams will just hunt KP again and you'll get to see us go back to the zone.  The other thing is that you even admit that we stink at perimeter shots because the offense gets by our first line of defense with ease but at the same time you're suggesting that we have KP out there...just doesn't add up.

Holmes/Maxi or Turner/Maxi on the other hand...that speaks to me.

[mvossman]

If Boston takes JRich with KP, is that “significant”?  I’m thinking KP/JRich for Kemba + Someone (RWIll, GWill or Nesmith).  Saves us cap space and gives us that secondary piece who eventually becomes the main focus of the trade.

No.  If JRich opts in (which I think is very unlikely) then I doubt we have to pay an asset to dump him.  I would much rather have KP than Kemba, regardless of the extra year.

[StepBackJay]

Looking at some stats, from the last couple of years...

2019-20
Offrtg: 120, Defrtg: 109 with the THJ/Powell lineup

2020-21
Offrtg: 123, Defrtg: 111 with the Rich/Kleber lineup
Offrtg: 127, Defrtg: 125 with the THJ/Powell lineup (very small sample size)
Offrtg: 127, Defrtg: 108 somehow with Brunson, Rich lineup somehow (used late in games sometimes)

I think with Powell/KP you are probably middle of the pack defensively which isn't terrible. To me Collins would probably be no worse than Powell who himself is a bit underrated defensively. I imagine Mavs are thinking Collins would keep you top 5 offense and maybe slightly better or no worse than 2019.

In the playoffs the Boban/KP lineups were pretty bad defensively: 124. Kleber/KP was 115. We don't really have a sample to look at with a true 2 big lineup like a Turner/KP type lineup but my theory is that you will get closer to a top 10 defense with that type of frontcourt without giving up offense.

[StepBackJay]

No.  If JRich opts in (which I think is very unlikely) then I doubt we have to pay an asset to dump him.  I would much rather have KP than Kemba, regardless of the extra year.

I still haven't see any kind of J Rich exit interview which leads me to believe he is done with Dallas and thus the opt-in would only happen if there is a deal in place to move him (Mavs working with Duffy to find him a landing spot).

[omahen]

If Boston takes JRich with KP, is that “significant”?

Not for me. Unless player coming our way is Smart and probably a younger player (Nesmith), I wouldn't consider it. 

I would be more interested in a three team deal where Boston dumps Kemba to cap space team like OKC and we get Smart/Williams for KP.

[mvossman]

I think Ball does some nice things.  He was my favorite prospect in that draft.    I loved his game.   

He has a great Bball IQ, but when I watch him play, I am mostly left uninspired.   He seems to take open threes.   He doesn't handle the ball as much as I thought he would.   He makes smart passes, but doesn't put much force on a defense (outside of passing the ball up the court in transition) because he hardly drives nor gets to the line.  

I don't like the fit if you added him to our current team, because you would just add another guy who pretty much spots up at the three point line.  He shot the ball well this year, but I am not certain he would shoot better here (The Josh Richardson effect).  

If we had a guy like Derozan, I think he would make better sense, but If you put him at SG with our current team, I think it does not move the needle enough for me.   

Would love to see him hit though.  I really like watching good/great passers.

Your right that Ball is not going to break down a defense off the dribble.  He is a good shooter who is also a very good passer with a high BB IQ (as you stated).  I would argue that is the perfect compliment to Luka.  Somebody who can space the floor, make an open shot or get it quickly to someone that is open.  That kind of IQ on the court is something we could really use.

Guys like Wright and JRich are hesitant ineffective shooters, not particularly good passers, and tend to dribble around aimlessly.  They completely bogged down the offense.  Ball is literally the opposite of that.

DeRozan would be very handy in the last minute when you need a 2.  He would also make some sense running the second unit.  His offensive fit with Luka though is questionable.  Most of his value on the court is when he has the ball in his hands because he can't space the floor due to his terrible shooting.  I understand the idea of taking some offensive pressure off of Luka, but he is not as good at breaking down a defense (not sure anyone is) and he clogs up the spacing when Luka has the ball.  On top of that, he is a terrible defender.  We already struggle with perimeter defense, and he would exacerbate that issue.  There is a reason he has been literally a net negative on the court almost his entire career.  Add in that he is 32 (vs 23) and will probably cost roughly the same AAV and seems to me Ball is the better choice by far.

[mvossman]

I know you've laid out your argument but you have to understand that while you're getting a center to address KPs issues defensively there, now you're taking Maxi's defense out of the lineup and asking KP to guard the following PFs in the West:

Utah - Bogdan/Royce O'Neal
Phoenix - Jae Crowder
Denver - Aaron Gordon
Clippers - Marcus Morris
Portland - Robert Covington 
Lakers - AD
Grizz - Jaren Jackson

Now if you get someone like Holmes, you could argue maybe he has the perimeter defense to handle those guys but it also goes against the argument that you're getting a defensive center because you aren't even playing him there if you did that.

Rick going to zone the first time we've ever seen KP at the 4 defensively all year tells you all you need to know about what Rick thinks of KP at the 4.  And he's right.

I honestly don't care about KP at the 4 or 5 on offense.  Him at the 5 is better for him but him at the 4 with a rim runner at 5 is better for Luka so perfect world is he's a floor spacer when Luka is with him and he takes over at the 5 when Luka's not but he's proven he gets easily bothered by wing defenders in the post and doesn't really have any actual...you know...moves which is why when everything was on the line Rick put baby in the corner.

I agree with almost all of this, but I think its a myth that Luka is better with a rim runner.  The numbers suggest he may be even better with 5 out:

2020  Powell/KP/Luka/DFS/THJ   120 off rating   +11 net  (the most used 5 man lineup that year)
2020  Powell/KP/Luka                118 off rating   +8 net

2021  Maxi/KP/Luka/DFS/JRich  124 off rating    +13 net  (the most used 5 man lineup, and they did this with JRich!)
2021  Maxi/KP/Luka                 123 off rating    +12 net

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I agree with almost all of this, but I think its a myth that Luka is better with a rim runner.  The numbers suggest he may be even better with 5 out:

2020  Powell/KP/Luka/DFS/THJ   120 off rating   +11 net  (the most used 5 man lineup that year)
2020  Powell/KP/Luka                118 off rating   +8 net

2021  Maxi/KP/Luka/DFS/JRich  124 off rating    +13 net  (the most used 5 man lineup, and they did this with JRich!)
2021  Maxi/KP/Luka                 123 off rating    +12 net

That's pretty interesting.  Do you have the numbers for last year's lineup this year?  Just curious what those look like as well.

Also, I'm on the record as making sure we still have a roster than can deploy a good 5 out system because Rick likes to pull out all the stops in the playoffs so I don't want to get away from that option.  It just doesn't feel like you can do with KP and have a competent playoff defense at the same time.

[SleepingHero]

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2021/05/20/rep...las-vegas/

An expansion draft might be coming up. If I remember right if it's 2 teams, then the Mavs can protect 8 players like last time.

Luka/KP/THJ/DFS/Maxi/Brunson/Green/Boban.

Make Seattle and Vegas take Powell. Mavs profit with a free 12 mill freed.

[mvossman]

That's pretty interesting.  Do you have the numbers for last year's lineup this year?  Just curious what those look like as well.

Also, I'm on the record as making sure we still have a roster than can deploy a good 5 out system because Rick likes to pull out all the stops in the playoffs so I don't want to get away from that option.  It just doesn't feel like you can do with KP and have a competent playoff defense at the same time.

They are terrible but very small sample.  The Luka/Powell numbers are not particularly good this year, but some of that is probably due to his recovery.  That is why I compared the two years, it was bigger samples, generally against starting lineups, and when they were at full strength.

[omahen]

https://twitter.com/Stadium/status/14030...wcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Fdallas-mavericks

[KillerLeft]

https://twitter.com/Stadium/status/14030...wcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Fdallas-mavericks

Right on the money.

[Scott41theMavs]

Right on the money.

Absolutely. But those guys they're talking about are expensive. 1) Not enough cap room, 2) not the right guys available if we did have the cap room, and 3) not enough trade capital.

Once again, there are three guys on my wish list: 1) Brogdon, 2) Brogdon, and 3) Brogdon. You might strip the team so badly in going after him that it sets back the timeline a year. Too bad. Make it so.

[StepBackJay]

https://twitter.com/Stadium/status/14030...wcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Fdallas-mavericks

This is a big news report underscoring a) need for playmaker b) reiterating that they would *need* to move KP.

[Scott41theMavs]

This is a big news report underscoring a) need for playmaker b) reiterating that they would *need* to move KP.

I don't think there's any straight-up deal that's going to get you back that Robin, but whatever value we could squeeze out of him in a three-team deal is probably the only way to get that guy. Anything else is likely a matter of, "We tried, but..."

[StepBackJay]

My new favorite idea is throwing a lot of stuff at Cleveland for Sexton who checks the 2nd star playmaker box. Take Loves deal, send whatever you can, maybe with assets gained from a separate KP deal? Love might be able to be routed to OKC for Horford who to me is the better player. Finally if you can do all the KP/Sexton/Hortford maneuvering without dipping into cap space you can make a max offer sheet to Collins to form a young big 3.

Mavs lineup would be something like Luka, Sexton, DFS, Collins, Horford and probably a pretty thin bench. I am thinking you would be expending a lot of assets to try to get Sexton here (ie Brunson for pick(s), etc).

[cjeter24]

Those passes made me nuts. I wonder how many turnovers we had trying to force-feed Boban in the post.

Yeah those possession are what made it so obvious to me that we had nobody that was capable of making those passes. Brunson can't either. 

And even when passes were made, they were in the wrong spots and it allowed an LA defender to come strip it or be in position to defend the possession way better. 

It's a different skill... And I fully expect Luka to master it eventually. Luka may be the best player in the league on offense, and he's still got a ton of ways to improve. It's crazy how good he could be.