2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[Hogmelon]

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2021/4/5/2...-porzingis

https://media.giphy.com/media/SQD2LlZy731O8/giphy.gif

[SkenfromLMF]

So because Hardaway's cap hold is so large it would make more sense for us to drop his bird rights and just operate under the cap and sign him into space, right?  Or am I missing something there.

Yeah there is no need to drop the Bird rights... you simply sign THJ first if the contract is less than the hold, then make your moves... 


I personally think keeping the hold, keeping/trading J-Rich on his opt in value and then having the full MLE is better asset management than trying to gut the team to get under the cap.

The ONLY way any of this makes sense is in a an offer for an RFA - and I am not sure about the risk tolerance. Best case scenario is THJ agrees to a 1yr less than market value (12 mil)  to create extra cap space, with a wink/wink deal for next season.

[SleepingHero]

I personally think keeping the hold, keeping/trading J-Rich on his opt in value and then having the full MLE is better asset management than trying to gut the team to get under the cap.

The ONLY way any of this makes sense is in a an offer for an RFA - and I am not sure about the risk tolerance. Best case scenario is THJ agrees to a 1yr less than market value (12 mil)  to create extra cap space, with a wink/wink deal for next season.

Using JRich as trade bait to try and get someone like Lauri Markkannen (unlikely) would be the best case scenario. Then turn around and use the MLE on the best defensive guard/forward that they can. Fill out the rest of the roster using vet min and room exception

Trot out 

Luka/Brunson
THJ/MLE guy?
DFS/Batum(?)
Kleber/Lauri/Melli(?)
KP/Powell/Boban

Love it. Markkanen also makes KP somewhat expendable though I don't think they'd move him.

[cjeter24]

Yup I figured. They are not going to be outspent on him. I think he's going to get like 20/yr.

I've been saying this for the last year. A little bit here (I don't post much anymore) but alot on reddit lol. 

Shooters get paid in FA and he's showing how good he is when it matters right now. 
The bad thing for him is that it's going to be tough for him to get overpaid other if the Mavs don't want to show him that loyalty. Brutal market to be switching teams with a lack of cap space.

[KillerLeft]

I've been saying this for the last year.

You have been, and I've been right there with you!

[StepBackJay]

I've been saying this for the last year. A little bit here (I don't post much anymore) but alot on reddit lol. 

Shooters get paid in FA and he's showing how good he is when it matters right now. 
The bad thing for him is that it's going to be tough for him to get overpaid other if the Mavs don't want to show him that loyalty. Brutal market to be switching teams with a lack of cap space.

You need to post on here dog! Don't waste time on Reddit.

[StepBackJay]

So this is maybe an obvious point but we (and likely the Mavs FO bc this is the way things work) are going to overreact to however the Mavs finish these playoffs.

If there's an epic meltdown (unlikely but hey its the playoffs) then there would be lots of moves made. If Mavs advance to the next round and get beat then Mavs FO will want to fill the holes exposed in that series. It's so results-driven honestly.

Right now we think KP is one foot out the door but he looked like he was having fun the other night. If Mavs win a series or two maybe all of a sudden he is a happy camper.

Even J Rich who also seems like he's ready to go could think differently if he has some bonding moments and clutch play in these playoffs. There are so many outcomes. Even right now it seems obvious what the Mavs need because we have seen them play all year but we also know how much front offices over react to playoff performances.

[StepBackJay]

I am still stuck on Dragic bc I think he will be available, a fit on the court and sort of a Dirk-like mentor to Luka. Heat are going to get swept so they will definitely be going all in on Lowry. The Dragic connection is just too perfect to ignore. So if you get Dragic then you need a wing and you are good to go. The offseason could really be that simple. Mavs have a good group and will benefit from continuity. J Rich is a wildcard, maybe you get something back from him, maybe you don't but you can still add 2 rotation players either way.

[F Gump]

I am still stuck on Dragic bc I think he will be available, a fit on the court and sort of a Dirk-like mentor to Luka. Heat are going to get swept so they will definitely be going all in on Lowry. The Dragic connection is just too perfect to ignore. So if you get Dragic then you need a wing and you are good to go. The offseason could really be that simple. Mavs have a good group and will benefit from continuity. J Rich is a wildcard, maybe you get something back from him, maybe you don't but you can still add 2 rotation players either way.

The only way I'd consider Dragic would be if J-Rich opts in (which I expect will happen), Dragic wants to sign with Dallas for about $10M or less, and then the Heat will agree to do a sign and trade of Dragic for J-Rich.

You can't afford to pay much for Dragic in salary, or in a trade, because his career arc (on his way downhill, near the end) doesn't fit where the Mavs are. And the Mavs' MLE needs to be spent elsewhere (and may only be the taxpayers MLE). 

But if you can turn J-Rich at 11M into Dragic on a modest-sized deal for 2-3 years, that makes sense. If you pencil in THJ at his current salary or so, the Mavs are going to need to find some good $10M-or-less players, and Dragic has multiple ways he can help.

[mvossman]

Using JRich as trade bait to try and get someone like Lauri Markkannen (unlikely) would be the best case scenario. Then turn around and use the MLE on the best defensive guard/forward that they can. Fill out the rest of the roster using vet min and room exception

Trot out 

Luka/Brunson
THJ/MLE guy?
DFS/Batum(?)
Kleber/Lauri/Melli(?)
KP/Powell/Boban

Love it. Markkanen also makes KP somewhat expendable though I don't think they'd move him.

Completely disagree with the idea that Lauri makes KP "somewhat expendable".  If KP can't get back to being a quality rim protector, then he is already expendable.  I don't see Lauri as a legit starter on a contending team.  He can't protect the rim and he can't guard the perimeter.  In the playoffs he will be hunted for and abused constantly.  People worry about KPs fit on offense, but the real concern is his defense.  Lauri in no way addresses that concern.

[chaparral]

Donny has a pattern of trying to but a Porzingis/Markkanen type combo together.  In 2006 - Nowitzki/Van Horn and in 2011 - Nowitzki/Stojakovic.

As for Dragic for the MLE, only the 1st year has to be guaranteed - pointed out here by others.

[SleepingHero]

Completely disagree with the idea that Lauri makes KP "somewhat expendable".  If KP can't get back to being a quality rim protector, then he is already expendable.  I don't see Lauri as a legit starter on a contending team.  He can't protect the rim and he can't guard the perimeter.  In the playoffs he will be hunted for and abused constantly.  People worry about KPs fit on offense, but the real concern is his defense.  Lauri in no way addresses that concern.

Lauri's skillset overlaps KP's skillset by quite a bit. Only thing is KP has more size and theoretically better defense. By getting Lauri, the Mavs basically cover an elite shooter at the 4/5 that their offense is built around. That's what I meant by making KP somewhat expendable, because should the Mavs trade KP, they still retain an elite shooter at that position. 

KP himself of course is an X factor, but even in a season by all accounts where he underperformed on the defensive end, the Mavs are still highly competitive. We're in the playoffs right now and the Clips are hunting him, but with KP on the floor the Mavs are outscoring the Clips by nearly 13 points. So yes, KP's defensive concerns are a priority to address, but not necessarily a dire hole that needs to be plugged at all costs. In fact if we take an optimistic POV, a healthy offseason where KP can work on his game and rebuild his strength should only help him return to the KP of yester year, one of the more elite rim protectors in the NBA. 

To me getting Lauri is just rebuilding the asset treasure chest and only adds flexibility for the Mavs. Sure he doesn't fit seamlessly and he doesn't check off everything the Mavs are looking for, but he's a young talented player that should shine in the Mavs system. And given the rumors, if he can be had for JRich who also doesn't fit very well, I don't see why the Mavs wouldn't take that swap. 

I don't think getting Lauri is likely (mostly because the Bulls have to love JRich for it to work) but I do think it'd be a huge win should they nab him.


EDIT: I just noticed you meant that Lauri would get hunted and abused in the playoffs. A valid point. Though I do think we've yet to see Lauri at his best. His time in Chicago has been cursed. After a promising sophomore year, Jim Boylen comes in and basically relegates the Finn to being a spot up shooter in the corner. His role slowly got diminished to the point he comes off the bench in spot minutes.  I think RC would coach up Lauri, as he's only 24. I don't think he'll ever be elite on the defensive end but passable? Sure.

[F Gump]

Completely disagree with the idea that Lauri makes KP "somewhat expendable".  If KP can't get back to being a quality rim protector, then he is already expendable.  I don't see Lauri as a legit starter on a contending team.  He can't protect the rim and he can't guard the perimeter.  In the playoffs he will be hunted for and abused constantly.  People worry about KPs fit on offense, but the real concern is his defense.  Lauri in no way addresses that concern.

I think the perspective that the Mavs would ONLY be interested in players with some ability to offer help on both ends of the floor is insightful.

With a money squeeze coming in 2022, their shopping list probably will look something like this:
a - legit 2-way star
b - players with the potential to help on both ends of the floor, on modest or bargain deals
c - minimum salary

That takes Markannen, McDermott, and quite a few other ideas off the board. Probably Collins too (he's neither a 2-way player nor a star, and won't be a bargain deal either), as well as Redick (but he might be useful as a sign-and-trade chip).

[Branduil]

I have to say I'm getting nervous about the Mavs' ability to keep Brunson after next year. The Knicks' point guard situation is dire and the obvious hole in their team, there's really no way for the Mavs to compete with what they could offer him, which is a starting PG job and $20 million+ in salary.

Obviously a lot still depends on how the playoffs play out. If the Mavs decide to move on from KP, and we could find a way to trade him for a high-quality two-way playmaker, then the obvious other move would be to trade Brunson to NY for Robinson+our pick back.

[SleepingHero]

Random thought in the morning:

We all know Charlotte needs a starting C. They're rumored for Holmes. 

I think they're going to try and sell high on Terry and swing for someone like Steven Adams. Gives Lamelo the keys to the castle and they get a big C that can set screens very effectively. NOP is desperate for a PG that can create and score, and Roizer fits that bill. Ball is most likely going to be SnT to somewhere like CHI or NYK since they don't want to pay him 20mm. Adams doesn't really fit well either there anyways. 

Graham seems to be an odd man out as well in CHA. With no Terry and Graham, they'll be looking for a scorer. Just because its the Hornets and Jordan is running the show, watch them go and trade for Eric Gordon too on the super cheap. Something like Graham SnT for Gordon. 

No evidence. Just a random thought bubble I had.

[omahen]

I have to say I'm getting nervous about the Mavs' ability to keep Brunson after next year. The Knicks' point guard situation is dire and the obvious hole in their team, there's really no way for the Mavs to compete with what they could offer him, which is a starting PG job and $20 million+ in salary.

Obviously a lot still depends on how the playoffs play out. If the Mavs decide to move on from KP, and we could find a way to trade him for a high-quality two-way playmaker, then the obvious other move would be to trade Brunson to NY for Robinson+our pick back.

I have a couple of thoughts. I don't think there is a realistic way someone would value Brunson at 20 per. He is a good player but not that good. Of course he has a full season to further improve and prove me wrong.

Knicks will be looking to solve their PG problem this year.

[JamesConway]

Can’t we extend Brunson this summer?

[Branduil]

I have a couple of thoughts. I don't think there is a realistic way someone would value Brunson at 20 per. He is a good player but not that good. Of course he has a full season to further improve and prove me wrong.

Knicks will be looking to solve their PG problem this year.

Whether or not he's worth 20 per, I can see the Knicks throwing that at him.

[omahen]

Whether or not he's worth 20 per, I can see the Knicks throwing that at him.

I will just repeat  Knicks will be looking to solve their PG problem this season. Look Ball, Lowry, Conley and similar as their targets.

[khaled1987]

I have a couple of thoughts. I don't think there is a realistic way someone would value Brunson at 20 per. He is a good player but not that good. Of course he has a full season to further improve and prove me wrong.

Knicks will be looking to solve their PG problem this year.

Yeah.
Tbh, I think Mavs will either sell high at this point,  or just extension. 
Knicks looks like logical partner for us in 1st scenario , they need PG, I think he fits well with the new culture they set, he doesn't mess up with their cap space this year (their fans are rooting for us to sweep LAC , so Kawhi joins them   ) and they have a truly important asset for the Mavs, 2023 1st round that would free our assets whenever new star is available)