2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[HAguiar95]

Today is Lauri Markkanen’s birthday.

I still don’t want him on the Mavs, unless it’s for some really nice value contract of like $7 million/year. Great shooter, but poor defender, poor rebounder, and constant injuries.

Feels like you're describing a current Mavs player ....

[DrMav]

Feels like you're describing a current Mavs player ....

For the anti-KP camp: Not sure why we would want to try again with a worse version of KP that would likely still be on a size-able contract.

For the pro-KP camp: We should focus on complimenting what KP brings, LM doesn’t do that.

All of this assumes he’s gonna get something $13M+ which is going to cost you a better fitting part(s) and possibly additional assets to make sure Chicago doesn’t match. If Chicago doesn’t want him and he’s going to be on a favorable contract with some low $$ and possibly team options/non-guaranteed years then the variables change and he becomes an asset that you can move or hold onto if you move KP.

[DanSchwartzgan]

For the anti-KP camp: Not sure why we would want to try again with a worse version of KP that would likely still be on a size-able contract.

For the pro-KP camp: We should focus on complimenting what KP brings, LM doesn’t do that.

All of this assumes he’s gonna get something $13M+ which is going to cost you a better fitting part(s) and possibly additional assets to make sure Chicago doesn’t match. If Chicago doesn’t want him and he’s going to be on a favorable contract with some low $$ and possibly team options/non-guaranteed years then the variables change and he becomes an asset that you can move or hold onto if you move KP.

My position on Markkanen is he has to be MLE and a bench guy next to Powell or move on.  There is money to be made in this role if year 3 is a PO.  His game will get a lift from Luka and there will be plenty of opportunities to start when KP is injured or just resting.  He can get more money in SA (where else?).  But he'll be toiling in obscurity and won't look much different than he looks in Chicago (and who among Poeltl and LM is going to guard the perimeter?).  

Speaking of the MLE...Something we haven't spent any time on is what if we bring back all of our top guys, including THJ, JRich and WCS, and stay over the cap.  No trades, just love the Boys in Blue and bring them all back.  Where do you spend the MLE positionally on this team?

KP/DP/WCS
Maxi/
DFS/JRich
THJ/JRich/Green
Luka/Brunson

If Maxi continues to start, then we need a bit more offense on the bench.  Or, you move Maxi to the bench and start someone who is more mobile at PF.  Who is that guy.  Maybe Gay or Batum if Maxi starts.  Maybe Theis if you move Maxi to the bench.  Theis is a good defender as a PF...arguably better than Maxi...and brings a little more diversity to the position offensively.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhHtuAPCM8I

[ItsGoTime]

I’m thinking Batum would be a good get. Wonder it it would take all of the MLE to get him too.

[omahen]

Speaking of the MLE...Something we haven't spent any time on is what if we bring back all of our top guys, including THJ, JRich and WCS, and stay over the cap.  No trades, just love the Boys in Blue and bring them all back.  Where do you spend the MLE positionally on this team?

I agree PF is the position of need. Olynik is an interesting name. But Theis does bring stuff we lack with his toughness.

Assuming this team is just not good enough to be a contender, it doesn't really make sense to run it back. You have to increase the ceiling. Although to be honest, I doubt free agency is the place where we would be able to really do it. Even if we manage to land Collins as best young player. I guess the only real option to raise the ceiling is retool by trading KP. Last time I had a "challenge" if we sign Markkanen and Holmes as bigs in FA, which KP trade can bring best guard upgrade. Now we could do it the other way around. Let's say we keep THJ and JRich. Which KP trade brings best C and big wing combination? But to be honest, I just don't see this as an option. Team looking for a KP trade is probably a team looking for a center.

[loki]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the Mavs will play it relatively safe this offseason. Re-sign Hardaway, finally land Donnie's sweetheart Danny Green (potential sign and trade to keep the full MLE?), and then sign a big like Theis, Olynyk, or Portis. Chasing RFA's and high dollar veterans is just too risky.

I can't wait until they have some 1st round picks to trade again. That might be what it takes to land another impact player. 

As far as a KP trade, I've been on board for a while, but I doubt the Mavs are going to get an offer that makes any sense. Might as well give him a healthy offseason and see if he can take the next step. If not, he should be much easier to move next year with only 2 years left on his contract.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree PF is the position of need. Olynik is an interesting name. But Theis does bring stuff we lack with his toughness.

Assuming this team is just not good enough to be a contender, it doesn't really make sense to run it back. You have to increase the ceiling. Although to be honest, I doubt free agency is the place where we would be able to really do it.  

Which leaves trades.  If we give THJ $18mm and use the Full MLE, we are at about $120mm in 21/22.  We will have a ton of flexibility at the next TDL.  JRich, DFS, Brunson and WCS expire.  Burke has a $3.3mm PO in 22/23 and Maxi is non-guaranteed.  We can spend a lot of time on KP deals, but I'm not convinced.  Maybe adding "talent" is accomplished the same way we tried to do it with Johnson's expiring deal at the TDL (I know, another summer of kick the can).  

If we give THJ $18mm and use the MLE, we are at about $120mm in 21/22.  The next year Luka's $200mm extension kicks in (assumes all-NBA again this season) and Brunson and DFS will get paid.  Just those raises could add $50mm.  With Green ascending, maybe JRich is expendable by then.  But, even with that and Willie and Burke rolling off, it will be tough to stay under the $140mm LT in 22/23.  I don't see us as a LT team in 21/22 even operating over the cap.  I do think the 22/23 tax is a consideration as we contemplate deals instead of FA signings.

[loki]

Which leaves trades.  If we give THJ $18mm and use the Full MLE, we are at about $120mm in 21/22.  We will have a ton of flexibility at the next TDL.  JRich, DFS, Brunson and WCS expire.  Burke has a $3.3mm PO in 22/23 and Maxi is non-guaranteed.  We can spend a lot of time on KP deals, but I'm not convinced.  Maybe adding "talent" is accomplished the same way we tried to do it with Johnson's expiring deal at the TDL (I know, another summer of kick the can).  

If we give THJ $18mm and use the MLE, we are at about $120mm in 21/22.  The next year Luka's $200mm extension kicks in (assumes all-NBA again this season) and Brunson and DFS will get paid.  Just those raises could add $50mm.  With Green ascending, maybe JRich is expendable by then.  But, even with that and Willie and Burke rolling off, it will be tough to stay under the $140mm LT in 22/23.  I don't see us as a LT team in 21/22 even operating over the cap.  I do think the 22/23 tax is a consideration as we contemplate deals instead of FA signings.

I think JRich is gone even if he opts in. They will dump him like they did Wright. Carlisle tried to make it work all year, but then he benched him with 3 games left in the season, followed by playing him 17 minutes in the first playoff game. He's clearly given up on the Richardson experiment.

[cjeter24]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the Mavs will play it relatively safe this offseason. Re-sign Hardaway, finally land Donnie's sweetheart Danny Green (potential sign and trade to keep the full MLE?), and then sign a big like Theis, Olynyk, or Portis. Chasing RFA's and high dollar veterans is just too risky.

I can't wait until they have some 1st round picks to trade again. That might be what it takes to land another impact player. 

As far as a KP trade, I've been on board for a while, but I doubt the Mavs are going to get an offer that makes any sense. Might as well give him a healthy offseason and see if he can take the next step. If not, he should be much easier to move next year with only 2 years left on his contract.

The word at the deadline wa that they would be aggressive. 

What's the risk? That you don't one of the free agents that are on the market every year? Guys like the one you listed are gettable every year for MLE money.

When you have cap space, that's the time to be riskier and try to get better talent. Of course Dallas has failed in that regard repeatedly. But doesn't mean it's not the right play when you already have cap space. 

We have no problems with the depth of the team. The top end talent is the problem (minus Luka). FA or trade is the only path to those for the Mavs now. And they'll pursue both of them aggressively.

[loki]

The word at the deadline wa that they would be aggressive. 

What's the risk? That you don't one of the free agents that are on the market every year? Guys like the one you listed are gettable every year for MLE money.

When you have cap space, that's the time to be riskier and try to get better talent. Of course Dallas has failed in that regard repeatedly. But doesn't mean it's not the right play when you already have cap space. 

We have no problems with the depth of the team. The top end talent is the problem (minus Luka). FA or trade is the only path to those for the Mavs now. And they'll pursue both of them aggressively.

What top end talent is available? That's the whole issue with this offseason. I guess Collins is the obvious name, but if Atlanta matches a max offer the Mavs will have to scramble just to get back where they currently are. I'd call falling out of the playoffs a pretty big risk. And I don't buy the idea that the Hawks will donate JC to us for a few role players and spare change. They have a pretty clear mandate from their ownership to win now.

Other names have serious drawbacks as well. Lowry or Conley? Short term solutions that don't put Dallas over the top and make it more likely Brunson walks. Derozan? Terrible 3pt shooter and defender, 32 years old. 

Beyond that you're looking at more RFA's and THJ level players or worse. Holmes is a popular name here (I'm interested too) but I don't consider him top end or worth the $20M he wants.

[Tyler]

What top end talent is available?

https://media.giphy.com/media/gicrCZ30RF.../giphy.gif

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think JRich is gone even if he opts in. They will dump him like they did Wright. Carlisle tried to make it work all year, but then he benched him with 3 games left in the season, followed by playing him 17 minutes in the first playoff game. He's clearly given up on the Richardson experiment.

So, let's follow through with this.  BTW, if you assume JRich is nothing more than Finney's backup, then that is a role Green can grow into.

Something I've said when thinking about big dollar RFA's is you have to watch out for BYC.  The sending team only gets to use 1/2 of the outgoing salary, but all of the incoming salary counts.  Hard to bridge the $14mm gap on a $28mm max.  But, if you think about someone making in the mid teens, then JRich matches anything from $13.2mm to $16.6mm.  At $16.6mm, $11.6mm is within range of both $16.6mm and $8.3mm.  At $13.2mm, $11.6mm matches both the $13.2mm and the $6.6mm.

So, to your point, you could work over the cap and get any kind of FA in the $13-$16 million range via sign and trade with JRich (even a RFA) and use the Full MLE to fill another hole.  Something like:

KP/DP/WCS
Maxi/New
DFS/Green
THJ/New
Luka/Brunson

BTW, this would be a way to get Markkanen for more than the MLE if you assume Chicago has a use for JRich...which I think they do.  It adds to salary, but they could buy out Satoransky for $1mm instead of cutting him for $5mm and Dallas would make up that salary by using the MLE on Satoransky.  

KP/DP/WCS
Maxi/Markkanen
DFS/Green
THJ/Sato
Luka/Brunson

This is just an example.  Suddenly, that bench doesn't need KP and Luka to platoon and there is plenty of O among the backups to crush most benches.  This still doesn't make Markkanen a starter, but it does get him some money.  

Personally, I'd rather use the MLE on Theis and do the JRich deal for a better secondary ball handler.  What about WCS and JRich together to Charlotte and bring back Graham.  Or, maybe think bigger.  That combo can get you to the $20mm range of FA's.  The trick is finding the team that thinks JRich and Willie for a year (and maybe a second) is better than losing their guy for nothing.  Norman Powell?  Dinwiddie? Fournier? Gary Trent Jr.?  Portland, Brooklyn, Toronto and Boston could all use guys like that and it would be hard for Duffy to get too mad if you are sending his guy Richardson to a playoff team.

[loki]

https://media.giphy.com/media/gicrCZ30RF.../giphy.gif

Let's pray the Mavs win the next 3 games then 

[omahen]

https://media.giphy.com/media/gicrCZ30RF.../giphy.gif

I wouldn't really call Kidd Gilchrist a top end talent...

[cjeter24]

What top end talent is available? That's the whole issue with this offseason. I guess Collins is the obvious name, but if Atlanta matches a max offer the Mavs will have to scramble just to get back where they currently are. I'd call falling out of the playoffs a pretty big risk. And I don't buy the idea that the Hawks will donate JC to us for a few role players and spare change. They have a pretty clear mandate from their ownership to win now.

Other names have serious drawbacks as well. Lowry or Conley? Short term solutions that don't put Dallas over the top and make it more likely Brunson walks. Derozan? Terrible 3pt shooter and defender, 32 years old. 

Beyond that you're looking at more RFA's and THJ level players or worse. Holmes is a popular name here (I'm interested too) but I don't consider him top end or worth the $20M he wants.

That's very true with the lack of top end talent available this offseason. It's not about getting a star as much as high level starter. That market dried up with extensions and trades in the last year. 

I do think Lowry and Conley are above average starters still. Derozan gives you a premier scoring option. 

What are you missing out on trying to get someone, even an RFA? You lose Richardson assuming he opts out. I'd imagine THJ is resigned at this point regardless.

You may be able to get one of the old guys on a big money 1 year deal or 1+1. 
Collins is the obvious FA target for sure. But I also love the idea of Lowry. I have no problem having 2 guards like Brunson and Lowry for a year. Plus a tradeable asset during the year. 

Norman Powell would be a great get too. I think we were linked to him at the deadline right? 
I think adding a scoring option this summer is the play regardless of the level. THJ isn't consistent enough to be a 3rd guy. KP isn't good enough at this point to be a true #2 so I think the best option is a team deep with scorers. It's sort of what we've done but Richardson just hasn't ever gotten it going outside a few games.

[StepBackJay]

@"cjeter24" you are more optimistic than I am. Lowry I think is Heat-bound. Conley will stay. I love the idea of DeRozan but my guess is he and the Mavs won't see themselves as a match. Especially with THJ looking more and more like he's staying there isn't the space for DR anyway.

The most realistic old guy is going to be Dragic. He's a fit on the court, buds with Luka, same agent, all that good stuff and I think Heat won't pick up his TO as they hunt for bigger fish (ie Lowry).

[StepBackJay]

All that being said Mavs might spend their non-THJ money on frontcourt help instead of a guard. It's hard to say right now.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So, to your point, you could work over the cap and get any kind of FA in the $13-$16 million range via sign and trade with JRich (even a RFA) and use the Full MLE to fill another hole. 

BTW, this would be a way to get Markkanen for more than the MLE if you assume Chicago has a use for JRich...which I think they do. 

BTW, you know how it has seemed at times that Dallas tends to go for guys who had big career nights against us...This season LM went 29/10 against Dallas.  The year before it was 26/9.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GG3xtl8IpDU

[StepBackJay]

Personally, I'd rather use the MLE on Theis and do the JRich deal for a better secondary ball handler.

Ya I like this idea of staying over the cap 2 be able to get 2 guys, especially since as you say J Rich's salary match can you a starting level player. I think J Rich's opt-in salary is in that sweet spot that makes it plausible he and the Mavs work together on a landing spot. The thing is I don't think you are going to get an amazing player back.

J Rich for Dragic is interesting should Miami find themselves with a big fish to spend money on, namely Lowry. If Lowry doesn't come and they can't woo Kawhi or somebody like that then they are running thin on options. In that scenario it might make more sense to get younger JRich back in the fold with money to spend on other role players.

The J Rich for Markannen is interesting. If you can really start salary at 16 mil then that puts you in the Markkanen range. Alternatively J Rich for Sato just straight up could make sense. Bulls get a younger guy. I think Sato could be a better fit as your PG off the bench. I also like Thad Young as extra frontcourt help if Mavs want to continue to do things by committee.

Sato, Young are basically the tier of guys that are "gettable" for J Rich's deal. To me if J Rich would accept a bench role Mavs might want to keep him but he seems to think he's a starter so he might want to end up somewhere where he can compete for a starting role.

But to sum up OTC with J Rich chip, MLE, BAE, picking up TO for WCS, maybe money-whipping JJR on a 1-yr deal could make sense.

[StepBackJay]

BTW, you know how it has seemed at times that Dallas tends to go for guys who had big career nights against us...This season LM went 29/10 against Dallas.  The year before it was 26/9.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GG3xtl8IpDU

I like Markkanen if KP is moved and Rick kind of goes with his committee approach at center.