2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[DanSchwartzgan]

Although I think the appeal of Demar is not to be a three point marksman.  It is another guy who can create, get to the line and take some scoring punch (especially if KP is out).   I am in favor of changing our offensive approach some.  Not to get another guy who waits to shoot an open three, but a another guy who creates pressure on the defense.   So for all times you would have two of Luka, Brunson and Derozan on the floor and fill around them with defense and shooting.   

Am I ready to say Demar is my number one choice.....Not yet.    But am I intrigued with adding more juice to our team....yes.

I had a little driving time today and listened something called the NBA Front Office podcast with Keith Smith and Trevor Lane.  I don’t know much about them except Lane also does some Laker related stuff and Smith is some kind of cap and analytics guy.

Anyway, DeRozan was the last name they discussed on their most recent podcast and the team they brought up was Dallas.  What they said was that he might be an interesting Plan B after they miss on whatever their main plan is.  They envision a two year deal starting at $25mm per year.  They thought it critical that the team that signs him stick to just a two year deal.  They said DeRozan has really made over his game.  He’s playing a good bit of PF and is much more of a facilitator averaging 7 assists per game.  They thought Dallas had enough 3 point shooting to make DeRozan fit as a secondary playmaker and 20 point scorer.  They didn’t think it to be an intuitive move, but once we saw it in action we’d all say “hmmmm that kind of makes sense”.

[dirkfansince1998]

What they said was that he might be an interesting Plan B after they miss on whatever their main plan is.

Prepare for plan D-F.

More seriously...If the Mavs are still committed to the improve the defense approach DeRozan is a big no no. Especially if they plan to use him as the SF/PF.

[StepBackJay]

I had a little driving time today and listened something called the NBA Front Office podcast with Keith Smith and Trevor Lane.  I don’t know much about them except Lane also does some Laker related stuff and Smith is some kind of cap and analytics guy.

Anyway, DeRozan was the last name they discussed on their most recent podcast and the team they brought up was Dallas.  What they said was that he might be an interesting Plan B after they miss on whatever their main plan is.  They envision a two year deal starting at $25mm per year.  They thought it critical that the team that signs him stick to just a two year deal.  They said DeRozan has really made over his game.  He’s playing a good bit of PF and is much more of a facilitator averaging 7 assists per game.  They thought Dallas had enough 3 point shooting to make DeRozan fit as a secondary playmaker and 20 point scorer.  They didn’t think it to be an intuitive move, but once we saw it in action we’d all say “hmmmm that kind of makes sense”.

HEEEELLLLLZZZZ YAAAAAA.

That's great so, I was think 25/yr would be nice, 2 year would be amazing. I wouldn't be shocked tho if these older guys get multi-year deals though. I think the success of CP3 in particular has affected the landscape some for these guys. 

Kyle Lowry is 35 and somehow is going to be expecting at least 25/2 years. CP3 could actually get an extension. Conley could be getting a deal somewhere in the Lowry/DeRozan range. I do love 2 year deals, you almost can't screw them up because you have an expiring contract after only 1 year of "trying out" the player.

It is interesting that DeRozan can basically play 4 positions which seems kind of crazy? But yes the 7 assists a game is something I am locked into. I want another ball mover besides Luka.

[StepBackJay]

Also the thing is you could keep J Rich or find a comparable player while also getting DeRozan. He would be replacing THJ and to me 2/50 is better than THJ at somewhere in the 4/70 range. THJ until recently was a negative asset so much so that his contract dump was a key piece of the Knicks giving us KP. And I like THJ, I just like DR and I would see a short contract as a very low-risk, high upside move honestly. THJ's defense also is not great so it wouldn't be a huge drop-off there imo.

[omahen]

Anyway, DeRozan was the last name they discussed on their most recent podcast and the team they brought up was Dallas.  What they said was that he might be an interesting Plan B after they miss on whatever their main plan is.  They envision a two year deal starting at $25mm per year.  They thought it critical that the team that signs him stick to just a two year deal.  They said DeRozan has really made over his game.  He’s playing a good bit of PF and is much more of a facilitator averaging 7 assists per game.  They thought Dallas had enough 3 point shooting to make DeRozan fit as a secondary playmaker and 20 point scorer.  They didn’t think it to be an intuitive move, but once we saw it in action we’d all say “hmmmm that kind of makes sense”.

I know DeRozan was mostly having an negative impact on the team where he played, but that was mainly with him required to be the first banana. Will he remain a negative as a third banana? Still, losing both JRich and THJ for DeRozan would be bad. We would lose 3pt shooting and defense for playmaking and scoring. But if JRich opts in we would basically be at 25 mil for DeRozan. Or we dump Powell.

[Chicagojk]

I had a little driving time today and listened something called the NBA Front Office podcast with Keith Smith and Trevor Lane.  I don’t know much about them except Lane also does some Laker related stuff and Smith is some kind of cap and analytics guy.

Anyway, DeRozan was the last name they discussed on their most recent podcast and the team they brought up was Dallas.  What they said was that he might be an interesting Plan B after they miss on whatever their main plan is.  They envision a two year deal starting at $25mm per year.  They thought it critical that the team that signs him stick to just a two year deal.  They said DeRozan has really made over his game.  He’s playing a good bit of PF and is much more of a facilitator averaging 7 assists per game.  They thought Dallas had enough 3 point shooting to make DeRozan fit as a secondary playmaker and 20 point scorer.  They didn’t think it to be an intuitive move, but once we saw it in action we’d all say “hmmmm that kind of makes sense”.

I got to be honest, 25 million seems a little rich to me.  I was thinking a max at around 18 million and was hoping for less than that.  

I want to note again, i have not watched much of the spurs.  So most of my Derozan experience is when we play the Spurs.   I have noticed his high assist number lately.   While he is not a great shooter, I think what interests me is when the mavs get in a dry spell and they keep on shooting three after three, a guy like Derozan can either get to the line or get a good percentage two point shot.   I just gives us another way to attack defenses rather than hoping we shoot a better percentage of threes than our competition or hope for a Luka Legend game to get a victory.   I would be lying if I could give much of an opinion on his defense though.

[StepBackJay]

I got to be honest, 25 million seems a little rich to me.  I was thinking a max at around 18 million and was hoping for less than that.  

I want to note again, i have not watched much of the spurs.  So most of my Derozan experience is when we play the Spurs.   I have noticed his high assist number lately.   While he is not a great shooter, I think what interests me is when the mavs get in a dry spell and they keep on shooting three after three, a guy like Derozan can either get to the line or get a good percentage two point shot.   I just gives us another way to attack defenses rather than hoping we shoot a better percentage of threes than our competition or hope for a Luka Legend game to get a victory.   I would be lying if I could give much of an opinion on his defense though.

I am not sure what you would base the 18 mil number on? Bogdan got 18 for pretty pedestrian numbers (having trouble finding more 2020 guard comps). DeRozan is 20/7/4 at almost 50% FG% and 7 FTA!! per game at 88%. The knocks on him are of course his 3% and defense but he is a very good player.

[StepBackJay]

THJ 2 points, DR 33 and the game winner. I rest my case. Donnie make it happen please.

[DanSchwartzgan]

THJ 2 points, DR 33 and the game winner. I rest my case. Donnie make it happen please.

So, you’d have $9mm left if you pay DD $25mm under the cap while walking away from THJ, JRich and WCS (just keeping it simple for now).  

It would be much better to partially guarantee a third year so you could pay him $23mm and have $11mm and be at the front of the line for MLE level guys.  You would need to replace Hardaway’s shooting with that slot.  Is this the year we finally land Danny Green?  You’d have the Room MLE to add a big to replace WCS.

[omahen]

have $11mm and be at the front of the line for MLE level guys.  You would need to replace Hardaway’s shooting with that slot.

What shooting?  I think I would keep JRich defense (if he agrees, of course). Otherwise McDermott could be a realistic target for that money.

[DanSchwartzgan]

What shooting?  I think I would keep JRich defense (if he agrees, of course). Otherwise McDermott could be a realistic target for that money.

Or, does Josh Green pick up some of those wing defender minutes next season?  

The issue with DD is he's neither a shooter nor a defender.  So, what do you prioritize next to him?  You need both.  Also, are we slotting DeRozan at SF?  Who sits, Maxi or Finney?  If Maxi sits, you need a shooter.  If Finney sits you need a defender.  And, it isn't just any defender.  They need to be able to take the other team's primary creator.

[Jason Terry]

Or, does Josh Green pick up some of those wing defender minutes next season?  

The issue with DD is he's neither a shooter nor a defender.  So, what do you prioritize next to him?  You need both.  Also, are we slotting DeRozan at SF?  Who sits, Maxi or Finney?  If Maxi sits, you need a shooter.  If Finney sits you need a defender.  And, it isn't just any defender.  They need to be able to take the other team's primary creator.

Seems like it would be J Rich opts in and DD gets the 22.7 million left and becomes 6th man and backs up 2-3-4 depending on matchups. We would lose Hardaway and the full MLE. 3pt shooting would be a problem. Maybe a decent shooter would take the room exception?

[dirkfansince1998]

Seems like it would be J Rich opts in and DD gets the 22.7 million left and becomes 6th man and backs up 2-3-4 depending on matchups. We would lose Hardaway and the full MLE. 3pt shooting would be a problem. Maybe a decent shooter would take the room exception?

Mavs also need to think about the front court rotation. WCS and Powell are 3rd string bigs. Maxi is a lot better in a 25 minutes per game role. KP is injury-prone. Is Melli the solution? Not likely. More likely a cheap backup for Maxi.
Luka is one of the best pick and roll ballhandlers in the league (maybe the best) but the Mavs lack a reliable pick and roll partner for him. KP cannot screen and refuses to roll. Boban is not quick enough. Powell can screen but lost his athleticism. WCS cannot screen and has stone hands. Maxi is a pure stretch big.

That´s the problem with guys like DeRozan. You need to more than just him to upgrade the wing rotation. At least one defender (in this case JRich) but if the defender cannot shoot you need one more shooter (rE). Basically wasting the entire available caspace to upgrade one position.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Seems like it would be J Rich opts in and DD gets the 22.7 million left and becomes 6th man and backs up 2-3-4 depending on matchups. We would lose Hardaway and the full MLE. 3pt shooting would be a problem. Maybe a decent shooter would take the room exception?

I don't know.  I'd probably start my $23mm guy and let my $4mm guy back up the 3/4.  I agree with you and Omahen that it makes the starting two even more important.  Post All-Star JRich is hitting .378 on his 3's.  Maybe that is good enough if it continues.  Or, maybe Danny Green gives you both better shooting and better defense.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Mavs also need to think about the front court rotation. WCS and Powell are 3rd string bigs.  

Come on now.  

Post All-Star Powell is +5.3 with a .686 TS% and O/D-Ratings of 150/108.  Convert his 14 minute/game to Per 36 and he's 12.8 points and 9 boards.  We all expected him to improve the further away from his injury that he got and he's doing exactly that.

[omahen]

I don't know.  I'd probably start my $23mm guy and let my $4mm guy back up the 3/4.  I agree with you and Omahen that it makes the starting two even more important.  Post All-Star JRich is hitting .378 on his 3's.  Maybe that is good enough if it continues.  Or, maybe Danny Green gives you both better shooting and better defense.

Discussing DeRozan as an option, I think there is absolutely no way he comes in as a 6th man. Although this role might be best for him. I would start him and let JRich come in from bench with Brunson. So basically minutes distribution as it is now with DeRozan taking JRich minutes and him taking THJ minutes. You sacrifice a bit of defense in the starting unit for big offensive boost and sacrifice shooting from bench for defensive boost. Shooting could still be brought in for less money. 

Post All-Star Powell is +5.3 with a .686 TS% and O/D-Ratings of 150/108.

Powell had a couple of excellent games. But I just don't see him live up to his 10 mil contract. I think Mavs have to start optimizing cap structure to become contender and there is no place for overpaid players. Despite recent nice games I have a hard time seeing Powell as a serious contributor in extensive minutes. As long as he is just KP back up, 10 mil per year is too much.

[dirkfansince1998]

Come on now.  

Post All-Star Powell is +5.3 with a .686 TS% and O/D-Ratings of 150/108.  Convert his 14 minute/game to Per 36 and he's 12.8 points and 9 boards.  We all expected him to improve the further away from his injury that he got and he's doing exactly that.

211 total minutes. I know a guy with even better per36 numbers and similar on/off impact. Played 209 total minutes and is sitting on the Mavs bench. 20pts/17rebs per 36. He is also not getting more minutes for a reason...just like Powell.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Powell had a couple of excellent games. But I just don't see him live up to his 10 mil contract. I think Mavs have to start optimizing cap structure to become contender and there is no place for overpaid players. Despite recent nice games I have a hard time seeing Powell as a serious contributor in extensive minutes. As long as he is just KP back up, 10 mil per year is too much.

And my response would be “so...”

They aren’t going to S/W him and his salary makes him untradeable for at least another year.  But, that doesn’t make him a “3rd string center”.  Also, if KP is playing big minutes, there isn’t a “serious contributor in extensive minutes” role to be had.  

Bottom line, we can complain about Powell’s salary, but it isn’t going to change anything.  Or, we can realize he’s become quite productive in the limited role he has and move on.  Unless someone has a magic wand I don’t know about, I don’t see the benefit of using the words “trade Powell” together in a sentence as the least bit helpful to off-season strategy discussions.  Very little of that was directed at you BTW.

[HAguiar95]

And my response would be “so...”

They aren’t going to S/W him and his salary makes him untradeable for at least another year.  But, that doesn’t make him a “3rd string center”.  Also, if KP is playing big minutes, there isn’t a “serious contributor in extensive minutes” role to be had.  

Bottom line, we can complain about Powell’s salary, but it isn’t going to change anything.  Or, we can realize he’s become quite productive in the limited role he has and move on.  Unless someone has a magic wand I don’t know about, I don’t see the benefit of using the words “trade Powell” together in a sentence as the least bit helpful to off-season strategy discussions.  Very little of that was directed at you BTW.

Love what I'm seeing from DP post All-star. Has his limitations on interior defense and defensive rebounding, but the energy and efficiency on offense is absolutely noticeable. KP, Maxi, Melli, DP gives us some interesting skillsets going forward.

DP is our biggest salary filler at the moment (not counting improbable S&T situations) and his value is increasing game-by-game to a point where he'll actually be a neutral contract by next year's TDL. If DEN could fetch AG for 1.5 years of Harris, a 1st and Hampton, I wonder if Dallas could fetch the same type of player (starter caliber) with DP, Green and a 1st. Maybe worth keeping him around for matching contracts.

[StepBackJay]

Or, does Josh Green pick up some of those wing defender minutes next season?  

The issue with DD is he's neither a shooter nor a defender.  So, what do you prioritize next to him?  You need both.  Also, are we slotting DeRozan at SF?  Who sits, Maxi or Finney?  If Maxi sits, you need a shooter.  If Finney sits you need a defender.  And, it isn't just any defender.  They need to be able to take the other team's primary creator.

J Green has to learn how to play offense. He might be a multi-year project.