04-10-2021, 05:51 PM
2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived
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04-10-2021, 05:58 PM
(04-10-2021, 05:30 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: This board and their hopeless dreams. A THT, Holmes super team is only months away! The only fit Demar would make is the current Brunson role. Except Brunson can stretch the floor and we know can play with Luka. I question if Demar can. Seems like he needs the ball in his hands to be of value. Plus is 32 and going to be expensive. Makes no sense unless they are going to trade Brunson. If we are going to go after a big money older UFA would much rather go after Conley.
04-10-2021, 06:15 PM
I would rather have Conley but I think his preference would be to stay if the money works out. It's really down to how much LT the Jazz can stomach.
I think DR is not mutually exclusive with JB. In fact without two 30 mpg guys you would be upgrading JB to a 30 mpg guy. I think you would try to win with the best offense. DFS, Maxi, KP and even Luka can play defense so I think you can live with DR on D.
04-10-2021, 06:42 PM
My list is:
Spend big money (25M - 30M): Guard - Lonzo (NOP), Wing - DeRozan (SAS) Big - Collins (ATL) MLE money (5M-10M): Guard - McConnell (IND), Brown (HOU) Wing - McDermott (IND), Bazemore (GSW) Big - Olynyk (HOU), Theis (BOS)
04-10-2021, 10:45 PM
(04-10-2021, 06:15 PM)StepBackJay Wrote: I would rather have Conley but I think his preference would be to stay if the money works out. It's really down to how much LT the Jazz can stomach. When was the last time "win with the best offense" took the title? I don't think a team has won a title in the last 20 years without being a top 10 defense. It can't be ignored. There is diminishing returns with offense. Both Luka and DR are at their best when they have the ball, and any combination of those three is going to be bad defensively. Seems like the best reason to get DR is that he is "gettable".
04-10-2021, 10:59 PM
(04-10-2021, 06:42 PM)HAguiar95 Wrote: My list is: Two RFAs that will cost significant assets in a trade (or an extreme overpay offer sheet in Lonzo's case) or an older, overpriced poor fit UFA. This is a strong argument for operating over the cap if at all possible.
04-10-2021, 11:22 PM
Derozan would be an atrocious fit with Luka. How many times do we have to try this non-shooting guard thing next to him.
04-10-2021, 11:44 PM
Could the JJ Reddick move be a chess move in the grand scheme, now hear me out. We know Reddick wants to go to Brooklyn so does this give the Mavericks the ability to pull something like this off in the offseason,
Dallas Receives Spencer Dinwiddie Brooklyn Receives JJ Reddick (Sign and Trade) Willie Cauley-Stein Future Pick (Protections)...this is probably too much tho. Brooklyn is over the gap and will need to build out depth so that accomplishes adding another shooter while also not taking on a lot of long term salary.
04-11-2021, 04:17 AM
(04-10-2021, 03:36 PM)mvossman Wrote: The trade off is THJ+JRich+Melli+MLE vs 34 mil. Can you get more value out of 34 mil than those 4 slots. I think that will be tough to do. Free agency is not known for its bargains. If you look at that free agency two years ago, how many Seth Curry value contracts were signed? Most of them turned out closer to Delon Wright value. There may be a couple this time, but a lot of buyers in the MLE market. You would have to get it just right to be worth it. I don't think it is that simple, you have to take a bit longer outlook. Let's assume this team as they currently are, is not at contender level and they need a talent upgrade. Let's assume the ceiling of this team is relatively low. This means you will have to upgrade at some point and there are basically two ways to do it. FA (in 2021) or trades from there on. I will neglect draft as a serious option as our picks are relatively rare and most likely won't be very high to count on serious talent upgrade this way. Realistically best we can hope for are rotation players. In the FA scenario you lose some of the floor (THJ, JRich) we have. I won't mention Melli, Boban or WCS because I think they are vet min guys and you can always sign those, no matter the scenario. However, the FA scenario gives you the option to raise the ceiling of the team by adding some high level talent. There are of course risks associated with this scenario - will you actually be able to convince the talent to come, will moves actually work and will (if you bring young players) they actually develop. This scenario might also leave you draft assets to play with in the future. In the trade scenario you keep the team and aim to improve with trade, using your floor guys and assets to trade for higher floor and ceiling guys. There are of course risks associated with this too. Mavs were not able to cash on Lee expiring at last TDL, made just a minor trade in the offseason and again wasn't able to pull anything special at this TDL. Even if the trade happens there are also risks if it will actually work. Not everyone is convinced JRich-Curry trade was a good decision. Myself not being one of them. Trade scenario will also cost draft assets of course, limiting options for cheap (good) rotation players. I hope playoffs will show us a better picture how high ceiling this team actually has. Regular season so far has been littered with disturbances (injuries, Covid,...) that make the picture blurry. Based on that Mavs might be able to decide what makes more sense - let go of a couple of guys to raise a ceiling of the team with talent or go for continuation with current core with just slight moves around the edges. Before than, I am open to all possibilities.
04-11-2021, 08:16 AM
04-11-2021, 08:28 AM
(04-10-2021, 11:22 PM)Branduil Wrote: Derozan would be an atrocious fit with Luka. How many times do we have to try this non-shooting guard thing next to him. I have only seen Demar play when he plays the Mavs and he always appears to be really good. I know the advanced metrics isn't good for him, he is not a good three point shooter, and you have to account for the bump from playing in San Antonio's system. Although I think the appeal of Demar is not to be a three point marksman. It is another guy who can create, get to the line and take some scoring punch (especially if KP is out). I am in favor of changing our offensive approach some. Not to get another guy who waits to shoot an open three, but a another guy who creates pressure on the defense. So for all times you would have two of Luka, Brunson and Derozan on the floor and fill around them with defense and shooting. Am I ready to say Demar is my number one choice.....Not yet. But am I intrigued with adding more juice to our team....yes.
04-11-2021, 08:37 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2021, 08:37 AM by StepBackJay.)
(04-10-2021, 11:22 PM)Branduil Wrote: Derozan would be an atrocious fit with Luka. How many times do we have to try this non-shooting guard thing next to him. Calling DeRozan a non-shooting guard is not accurate. He doesn't shoot 3's but he shoots efficiently as a mid-range guy, gets to the line a ton and still drops a lot of assists as well. DeRozan is a great offensive player that would take up gravity, especially when he has the ball and give Luka some more off-ball opportunities. Does J Rich shooting 31.8% really give you much spacing without the ball? With the ball he isn't bothering the defense much at all versus DR who causes the defense to collapse on him, similar to Luka. Again I don't think it's a perfect fit but DR still plays at a very high level so I'd be willing to give it a chance. I certainly like him better than THJ. It's my opinion that availability-wise DR is one of the more available talented vets that are out there.
04-11-2021, 08:49 AM
(04-11-2021, 08:16 AM)HAguiar95 Wrote: We can't go out there and get another "3&D" player with questionable shot creation and playmaking. It would mean disaster come playoff time. The thing I like ab a Luka, KP, DR, Brunson core is that you have guys on paper that can take tough shots in the playoffs when games turn into a grind. This happens especially in the 4th quarter. We know what Luka can do but teams are going to increasingly trap/double him to get the ball out of his hands and live with a Josh Richardson open 3 pointer. KP for his warts is still an efficient offensive player who can get his own shot. Brunson is a guy that can score and get his own shot, altho we haven't seen a lot KP/Brunson action in the playoffs yet. I expect them to both be pretty good. I don't really like having to trust THJ, J Rich, DFS and Maxi to hit 3's in order to win the game. They will need to hit some for sure but Mavs need more than that. Having that third big offensive weapon would be great. DR can score at will whenever he wants to. Honestly games could end with him and Luka just taking turns. I hope it could help KP's offense turn into easier baskets than doing post-ups with him too often (they should do it a few times to keep him engaged). During the regular season I like having a third "star" (DR 4-time all-star) on the team also means you are going to field a good team out there even when KP or Luka are sitting. There is a good chance you have at least 2 out of the 3 for most games. That will help your regular season record as well.
04-11-2021, 09:03 AM
Out on DeRozan. Walking net negative. Only one season in his entire career with positive on/off numbers. This year the Spurs defense is 9.9 points better when he is on the bench. I would probably take him in the Brunson/THJ role. Offense of the bench and closing some games but he probably still wants to start. Not to mention that he wants starter money.
04-11-2021, 09:05 AM
(04-10-2021, 10:45 PM)mvossman Wrote: When was the last time "win with the best offense" took the title? I don't think a team has won a title in the last 20 years without being a top 10 defense. It can't be ignored. There is diminishing returns with offense. Both Luka and DR are at their best when they have the ball, and any combination of those three is going to be bad defensively. Seems like the best reason to get DR is that he is "gettable". I am willing to give it a go. I think DR would be good asset management as well. I don't see a player or package of players that's going to give the Mavs a top defense anyway. If like Kawhi was available then great let's go get him, problem solved. But if it's like THJ + JR + MLE or DR + mini-MLE, give me the latter. I also think dependent on the contract you might be able to do DR + some other piece (JR even?) + mini-MLE. I am not a fan of JR in particular bc his inefficient offense and bad outside shooting but if he's on a 1-yr maybe that's okay. Mavs might go down the RFA route but that will probably cost some assets if it works, and I am not sure there is a deal to be made. Regarding DR I have been against trading for him for years for some of the same reasons brought up now, but that was also when you would be giving up assets like a pick and/or Brunson to get DR. Now you can get him for just cap dollars and that changes the equation.
04-11-2021, 09:19 AM
Count me in on Talen Horton-Tucker. In 4 games for the month of April, when giving a chance to play, he's averaging 16 points 5 assists 4 rebounds and an impressive 3 steals in 27 minutes per game. He's shooting 43% from the field, 50% from 3, and 83% from the FT line. He's 20 years old. He's 6'4" with an incredible 7'1" wingspan. He fits our timeline. The question is how much are you willing to spend if you're Dallas? He's restricted so the Lakers in theory could match. Refresh my memory, but are the Lakers limited in how much they can offer him?
On a side note, can we hire someone from the Lakers scouting department? They're very good in drafting players. Some of them are All Stars for other teams as well as good role players.
04-11-2021, 09:50 AM
(04-11-2021, 09:03 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Out on DeRozan. Walking net negative. Only one season in his entire career with positive on/off numbers. This year the Spurs defense is 9.9 points better when he is on the bench. I would probably take him in the Brunson/THJ role. Offense of the bench and closing some games but he probably still wants to start. Not to mention that he wants starter money. Was just about to post the on/off stat. He was 22 that one season when he was positive. It is kind of shocking considering how good he’s been over the years at WS and VORP. I think you have to look at the UFA guards together as a group if you assume Dallas would be interested in one. Here, I’m mainly talking about DeRozan, Fournier and N. Powell. All are similar in terms of Usage (mid-20’s). DeRozan and Fournier have Assist %’s in the 30’s and a 2/1 Assist % to TO% ratio. Powell is not a distributor, but he is a GREAT three point shooter. Powell hasn’t been anything special in terms of On/Off, but Fournier has been positive most seasons. You wouldn’t call any of them a defender. The average DWS’s and DBPM’s for each for their career’s are: Fournier (1.13, -0.8), DeRozan (1.73, -0.8) and Powell (1.35, 0.1). For reference, JRich is 2.0 and 0.4. Someone who really is a great defender, like Marcus Smart is 2.37 and 1.2. 20 year old THT is 1.7 and 1.4...did I mention he was only 20? He has an Assist % of 19 (but TO’s are high) and as of now shoots 3’s worse than DeRozan (though he shows signs of being able to post a good TS% like DeRozan does). I personally think Fournier is the better fit among Powell, DeRozan and Fournier. Recall that we tried to trade for both Fournier and Powell and might have had Fournier if not for the Boston TPE. Fournier isn’t starting in Boston, so I’m not sure his Bird rights mean much there. Fournier is basically Hardaway with handles, something we could use. But, I suspect you have to start him to get him and to justify the money he will command. If you start him in place of JRich, you’ve solved two issues (3’s and playmaking) and created another (point of attack D). But, to get that, you have to look at RFA’s like Lonzo and THT. Rock meet hard place.
04-11-2021, 09:53 AM
(04-11-2021, 09:19 AM)Mavs03 Wrote: Count me in on Talen Horton-Tucker. In 4 games for the month of April, when giving a chance to play, he's averaging 16 points 5 assists 4 rebounds and an impressive 3 steals in 27 minutes per game. He's shooting 43% from the field, 50% from 3, and 83% from the FT line. He's 20 years old. He's 6'4" with an incredible 7'1" wingspan. He fits our timeline. The question is how much are you willing to spend if you're Dallas? He's restricted so the Lakers in theory could match. Refresh my memory, but are the Lakers limited in how much they can offer him? @"cow" ...another victim! ![]()
04-11-2021, 09:54 AM
(04-11-2021, 09:05 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: I am willing to give it a go. I think DR would be good asset management as well. I don't see a player or package of players that's going to give the Mavs a top defense anyway. If like Kawhi was available then great let's go get him, problem solved. But if it's like THJ + JR + MLE or DR + mini-MLE, give me the latter. We don't need to be a top defense, we just need to be good. Since the all-star break, after we mostly recovered from the Covid disaster, I believe we have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense. We are already good. Putting DR in the starting lineup will reverse all the work they did to make this a better defensive team. There was a reason they inserted Maxi into the starting lineup and traded for JRich.
04-11-2021, 10:12 AM
(04-11-2021, 09:54 AM)mvossman Wrote: We don't need to be a top defense, we just need to be good. Since the all-star break, after we mostly recovered from the Covid disaster, I believe we have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense. We are already good. Putting DR in the starting lineup will reverse all the work they did to make this a better defensive team. There was a reason they inserted Maxi into the starting lineup and traded for JRich. I am willing to see what this looks like in the playoffs. I just worry ab relying on any of these guys to hit important shots in a tough playoff game. I trust Luka of course and I can live with KP. After that it's hard to depend on Maxi, Rich, DFS for a lot of offense. Again there are so many options/directions the Mavs could go. I think ab DeRozan sort of like I thought of Monta Ellis (who ended up being much cheaper that whatever DR will demand). Every time I watched the Mavs play Ellis he was such a handful. He was not a great fit either at the time bc he was too small and could not hit 3's. That being said the best Mavs team up until the Luka era was that Ellis/Dirk team that took the Spurs to 7 games. Ellis was just a really good basketball player. |
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