2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think this is the case. They have actually clearly said they will not let him walk for nothing in free agency. 

Imho, the path to Collins is a SnT in the summer. Atlanta will demand a kings ransom at TDL because they want to make the playoffs. But as you said, they are not really willing to pay him max contract (but still they don't want to let him walk for nothing). So perhaps their asking price in the summer will be lower. Good thing is Collins needs to play along in the SnT - so his agent could make a difference here. Everything could actually be agreed at this point. Dallas saying we will offer Collins near max, Collins saying he likes Dallas only which decreases Atlanta negotiating power and Atlanta saying "ok we will let him walk for XXX price" - their only alternative is to match the offer.

I agree that Atlanta wants to be paid for Collins.  No way he walks for nothing even if they have to match a big offer and trade him later.

I agree that Atlanta wants to make the playoffs and needs to replace Collins if traded at the TDL without hurting their chances.  But, there are big advantages to Dallas getting Collins now and using his relatively small cap hold to do other things this summer.  Dallas has a history of this (trading for Noel before he became RFA and trying to do it with Kemba in order to have his Bird rights).  They have Schwartz as the agent here to help smooth the way.  He or his firm were involved in both the Noel and Walker deals.

Atlanta doesn't have to have a PF back.  Lineups with Hunter at PF have been quite good and you still have Gallo and Solomon Hill who can take minutes.  Moving Hunter to PF frees up more time at the 2/3 for Bogdanovic, Huerter and Reddish backed by Snell.  They are a little weak at backup PG and C right now.  Point is, if the other compensation is satisfactory, I think you can make a deal for Collins now and Atlanta can still contend for the playoffs.  The benefit would be certainty for both teams.  As we saw with Parsons, there are ways to design RFA offers that make it unappealing for the current team to match...especially if their intent is to match and later trade.

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NYK has their sights set much higher. They want Dipo or some other bigger name. They are finally a decent basketball team. They aren't going to settle for Dwight Powell.

Take it up with Bobby Marks.  There is still plenty of room for Dipo this summer after a Powell trade.  They are getting an improved asset(s) for their trouble, so it isn't just settling for Powell.

[omahen]

I agree that Atlanta wants to be paid for Collins.  No way he walks for nothing even if they have to match a big offer and trade him later.

I agree that Atlanta wants to make the playoffs and needs to replace Collins if traded at the TDL without hurting their chances.  But, there are big advantages to Dallas getting Collins now and using his relatively small cap hold to do other things this summer.  Dallas has a history of this (trading for Noel before he became RFA and trying to do it with Kemba in order to have his Bird rights).  They have Schwartz as the agent here to help smooth the way.  He or his firm were involved in both the Noel and Walker deals.

Atlanta doesn't have to have a PF back.  Lineups with Hunter at PF have been quite good and you still have Gallo and Solomon Hill who can take minutes.  Moving Hunter to PF frees up more time at the 2/3 for Bogdanovic, Huerter and Reddish backed by Snell.  They are a little weak at backup PG and C right now.  Point is, if the other compensation is satisfactory, I think you can make a deal for Collins now and Atlanta can still contend for the playoffs.  The benefit would be certainty for both teams.  As we saw with Parsons, there are ways to design RFA offers that make it unappealing for the current team to match...especially if their intent is to match and later trade.

I agree with all of this. But I also think a gentleman agreement between the three parties (Atlanta, Dallas and Collins) could be beneficial for everyone involved. 

Problem with dealing now - which good players at PG and C would you give to Atlanta to move the needle? Brunson and WCS are basically best we can do. Unless we include a third team.

[Chicagojk]

Stupid question and not a route I am endorsing, but lets say for argument we let Hardaway and Richardson go in FA.   And used our cap room to sign Lowry and Derozan.   Would we still have the MLE for someone like Holmes (SAC)?

Is Lowry and Derozan an upgrade from Hardaway and Richardson?  Lowry, despite being older, is just a dog.   Maybe his play will slip, but having two of Lowry, Brunson and Luka on the floor all the time really keeps two playmakers always on the floor.  Derozan has a chip on his shoulder and wants a championship bad.   He is also someone who can create off the dribble.   

Luka Brunson Burke/Terry
Lowry Brunson Green
Derozan DFS
Holmes Maxi
KP  Holmes

Solid 8 man rotation.   You have areas for our young players to grow into and could also use minimums to fill deep bench.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree with all of this. But I also think a gentleman agreement between the three parties (Atlanta, Dallas and Collins) could be beneficial for everyone involved. 

Problem with dealing now - which good players at PG and C would you give to Atlanta to move the needle? Brunson and WCS are basically best we can do. Unless we include a third team.

We'd already be dealing with NY in a hypothetical where Powell freed up the 2025 first.  So, I suppose someone could come from there to Atlanta to fill a ST need.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Stupid question and not a route I am endorsing, but lets say for argument we let Hardaway and Richardson go in FA.   And used our cap room to sign Lowry and Derozan.   Would we still have the MLE for someone like Holmes (SAC)?

Is Lowry and Derozan an upgrade from Hardaway and Richardson?  Lowry, despite being older, is just a dog.   Maybe his play will slip, but having two of Lowry, Brunson and Luka on the floor all the time really keeps two playmakers always on the floor.  Derozan has a chip on his shoulder and wants a championship bad.   He is also someone who can create off the dribble.   

Luka Brunson Burke/Terry
Lowry Brunson Green
Derozan DFS
Holmes Maxi
KP  Holmes

Solid 8 man rotation.   You have areas for our young players to grow into and could also use minimums to fill deep bench.

In that scenario you'd only have the Room MLE as you'd be operating under the cap.

F Gump made a good point earlier.  If you have determined JRich and THJ are expendable, why not trade them now.  If you can pull that off for the players you are targeting, then you could operate over the cap and have the full MLE.  I'd have a hard time seeing both of those happen in-season, but maybe one of them (I'd prefer Lowry).

[StepBackJay]

Stupid question and not a route I am endorsing, but lets say for argument we let Hardaway and Richardson go in FA.   And used our cap room to sign Lowry and Derozan.   Would we still have the MLE for someone like Holmes (SAC)?

Is Lowry and Derozan an upgrade from Hardaway and Richardson?  Lowry, despite being older, is just a dog.   Maybe his play will slip, but having two of Lowry, Brunson and Luka on the floor all the time really keeps two playmakers always on the floor.  Derozan has a chip on his shoulder and wants a championship bad.   He is also someone who can create off the dribble.   

Luka Brunson Burke/Terry
Lowry Brunson Green
Derozan DFS
Holmes Maxi
KP  Holmes

Solid 8 man rotation.   You have areas for our young players to grow into and could also use minimums to fill deep bench.

The chances of signing both Derozan and Lowry are slim. They should demand good money even if it's on short term deals.

[SleepingHero]

Signing 2 all-star caliber players in replacement for inconsistent 3rd/4th guys would be an astronomical improvement. 

But because DeRozan and Lowry are that good, the chances of signing both are slim to none. Heck the chance of even getting one I'd put our odds at extremely low.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

The Fisher article detailed how Gordon was almost traded before his high ankle sprain to the TWolves for Rubio and draft capital.    That would indicate...

a)  The Magic do value a potential floor general point guard. 

b)   They're not asking for some crazy king's ransom for Gordon.  The TWolves don't have a lot of draft capital to throw around.  They owe the Warriors a 1st round pick .. either this year's 2021 Top 3 protected or 2022 unprotected.    Rubio this year has been ... not good  ... and is due $18 million next year.    So I don't know where people are getting this idea  that Gordon costs 2-3 first round picks.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The Fisher article detailed how Gordon was almost traded before his high ankle sprain to the TWolves for Rubio and draft capital.    That would indicate...

a)  The Magic do value a potential floor general point guard. 

b)   They're not asking for some crazy king's ransom for Gordon.  The TWolves don't have a lot of draft capital to throw around.  They owe the Warriors a 1st round pick .. either this year's 2021 Top 3 protected or 2022 unprotected.    Rubio this year has been ... not good  ... and is due $18 million next year.    So I don't know where people are getting this idea  that Gordon costs 2-3 first round picks.

From today's Trade Deadline Big Board article at The Athletic as it relates to Gordon:

Given that the team has time before it has to make a decision, it would likely take a real haul for the Magic to give up Gordon now. Would a first-round pick and intriguing young player get it done? It likely depends on how good the prospect is, but this might be the time to cash in on Gordon while he’s at the peak of his value, given that he still has two playoff runs left on his deal.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

Right, seems to be a rather large disparity from what Fisher reports on Gordon and what people "think" Gordon is worth.    Fisher also reported that the Nets were trying to get Gordon before the draft for one of Dimwiddie/LaVert + a draft pick.  The Nets dealt their 1st round pick for Shamet, so maybe that deal was already in place and they unsuccessfully tried  to secure another 1st round pick for a potential Gordon trade.  


I thought the Athletic article brought up a good point regarding Fournier on how close the Magic already are to the luxury tax next year without resigning Fournier.    They've already got $118 tied up for next year.   Aside from paying Vuc high end talent money, they're paying premium for a lot of high middle class players like Isaac ($17.5), Fultz ($16.5), Gordon ($16.5) and Ross ($12.5).    Then just sunk cost money on nearly unplayable guys like Aminu and Bamba (~18 million combined).    I suspect they'll want to resign Khem Birch, as they consider him a breakout player to build on going forward.   So I do think there is some imperative for them to move some salary either at the trade deadline or the summer.

[LukTheShadow]

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/maveri...-deadline/

“Unless it’s a game-changer star, I don’t see us doing anything at all,” owner Mark Cuban said this week on the Mavs Step Back podcast.

[Kammrath]

“Unless it’s a game-changer star, I don’t see us doing anything at all,” owner Mark Cuban

[cow]

I don't think this is the case. They have actually clearly said they will not let him walk for nothing in free agency. 

Imho, the path to Collins is a SnT in the summer. Atlanta will demand a kings ransom at TDL because they want to make the playoffs. But as you said, they are not really willing to pay him max contract (but still they don't want to let him walk for nothing). So perhaps their asking price in the summer will be lower. Good thing is Collins needs to play along in the SnT - so his agent could make a difference here. Everything could actually be agreed at this point. Dallas saying we will offer Collins near max, Collins saying he likes Dallas only which decreases Atlanta negotiating power and Atlanta saying "ok we will let him walk for XXX price" - their only alternative is to match the offer.

My wording was poor.  I should have said that they don't see Collins in their long term plans.  I could see giving up a future first, but multiples really ties our hands.

[ClutchDirk]

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/maveri...-deadline/

“Unless it’s a game-changer star, I don’t see us doing anything at all,” owner Mark Cuban said this week on the Mavs Step Back podcast.

https://media.giphy.com/media/gb8a9ZBOlU6k0/giphy.gif

[SleepingHero]

So I don't know where people are getting this idea  that Gordon costs 2-3 first round picks.

It was from the failed trade on draft night, where the Magic turned down the Blazers offer of 2 FRP and Ariza for Gordon. 

Portland eventually did the same exact deal for Covington instead. Since the Magic turned down 2 FRP for Gordon, many assumed that's what the Magic are still looking for.

Given the new rumors though, it seems like they're more motivated to move him now more than ever.

[Mavs2021]

Maybe we can send Dwight Powell and an advanced stats excelsheet to the Knicks for Julius Randle. Okay my last joke on that matter. Just too bored to repeat how much I hate the Gordon idea,unless it's straight up for Powell.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1372226649413054472

[F Gump]

Three notes about the above
1 The Mavs have no choice looming with Brunson. He has another year (2021-22) on his deal. There is no option.
2 If JRich opts in, that 11.6M is all he gets in 2021-22. Maybe that's enough. Maybe it's not.
3 If you sign and trade for a player using cap room (also known as an under-cap trade), or if you simply sign a player using your cap room, the amount of salary you can offer is exactly the same either way. Cap charges for empty roster slots cause that, and work identically in both instances.

I'll try this again. Some of you want to argue, but the above items are all accurate. If you want to think otherwise, you can, but then you would be wrong.

1 Brunson has no option and CANNOT be made a Mavs' RFA this summer. While his salary for 2021-22 is indeed non-guaranteed, that is not the same as an option. To remove the 2021-22 year salary, he would have to be waived, which means (a) all rights and ties are lost, (b) some other team could claim him off waivers, and undoubtedly would, and © if no one claimed him, he would be a UFA with no "prior team." 
2 Yes, JRich could both opt in and extend but (for practical purposes) it would be two separate and technically independent transactions, with the option accepted before his deadline and the extension happening after August 1. There is precedent for the Mavs doing this - they did exactly that with Powell. 
3 Dan, I'm not sure I followed your explanation of the mechanics of charges for empty roster slots, to know what your bottom line was. But the max amount a team with cap space can offer a FA via SNT that uses all their cap space with no players outgoing, vs a signing, is exactly the same either way. It's as simple as that.
(The mechanics of the cap charges aren't different at all in the 2 situations. I'll leave it at that, since I think I can be best understood by noting how to eat the sausage, not how it's made.)

[cow]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1372226649413054472

Considering our assets, that's not really a bold prediction.

[StepBackJay]

1 Brunson has no option and CANNOT be made a Mavs' RFA this summer. While his salary for 2021-22 is indeed non-guaranteed, that is not the same as an option. To remove the 2021-22 year salary, he would have to be waived, which means (a) all rights and ties are lost, (b) some other team could claim him off waivers, and undoubtedly would, and © if no one claimed him, he would be a UFA with no "prior team." 

That seems like a weird contract then to give a 2nd round pick bc aren't most 2nd round picks RFA's when their rookie contracts run out? https://hoopshype.com/player/jalen-brunson/salary/ reports that last year as a team option but https://www.basketball-reference.com/ says non-guaranteed.