2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[Mavs2021]

We are not getting Lavine anymore, unless he wants to play for the Mavs and nobody else. Then you can enforce a "cheap" trade or sign him as an UFA.

46 points on 68% shooting, 64% from three, +20. The whole game Bledsoe/Ball and all the other Pelicans knew where the ball was going on offense. LaVine is shooting over 50% against tight/very tightly contested shots, 70% at the rim, 40% on pull-up dribble threes. If he was just an average defender, he´d be the best player in the league.

That´s the MBT in a nutshell. Ten years of max money every summer (slightly exaggerated) and the big money signings they managed to complete were Parsons, Barnes, Matthews and DAJ. That is truly awful.

[Mavs2021]

Atlanta has 100 mil committed to 11 players in 2021. Add Collins at 27 and they are still comfortably under the tax. Gallo last year is not guaranteed. So he comes off the books in 2022 when Young max extension kicks in. Since Rondo and Dunn are off the books than too, Atlanta is still comfortably under the tax. 

I will just repeat. Collins will certainly get a max offer (unless everyone is sure Atlanta will match anything, so no one will even bother). If Atlanta is not willing to pay the max, they are trading him this TDL. I bet Atlanta takes the gamble, hopes they can resign him for less, but if not, they will pay him max. They can always trade him.

Exactly. Nobody will overpay for him at the TDL. He´ll go shopping in the summer and the Hawks will just match the offer, unless there has been some sort of silent agreement coming out of the whole Young situation.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

Atlanta has 100 mil committed to 11 players in 2021. Add Collins at 27 and they are still comfortably under the tax. Gallo last year is not guaranteed. So he comes off the books in 2022 when Young max extension kicks in. Since Rondo and Dunn are off the books than too, Atlanta is still comfortably under the tax. 

I will just repeat. Collins will certainly get a max offer (unless everyone is sure Atlanta will match anything, so no one will even bother). If Atlanta is not willing to pay the max, they are trading him this TDL. I bet Atlanta takes the gamble, hopes they can resign him for less, but if not, they will pay him max. They can always trade him.

Right.  Regardless of their current Atlanta roster construction or where else they've allocated money or draft picks, the bottomline is that Collins is a premium asset and you don't let a premium asset slip through your fingers unless getting an equivalent (or better) premium asset in return.   Same thing with Lavine.  

Even if the KP trade doesn't work out as well as we would hope, I still think that trade has spoiled us as to the realities of the league.    Most NBA Franchises are run by smart front offices now.  The Knicks are/were excpetionally poorly run, but even they might be better run under their new management.   Look at the huge hauls that teams are getting for good players.   Even non All NBA players like Jrue Holiday demand a king's ransom.   Teams expect to be compensated properly for assets.   I think the Mavs possible upgrades are going to have to come through free agency in the summmer, by finding people who could possibly overplay their contract ... either take a chance on an aging player that they might play longer at a premium level than anticipated, or take a chance on youth that they might grow into a better player that the market currently values them.   Unfortunately, this is a hard game to play.

[Mavs2021]

Right.  Regardless of their current Atlanta roster construction or where else they've allocated money or draft picks, the bottomline is that Collins is a premium asset and you don't let a premium asset slip through your fingers unless getting an equivalent (or better) premium asset in return.   Same thing with Lavine.  

Difference being Lavine is an UFA, while Collins is a RFA.

[RDB]

Atlanta has 100 mil committed to 11 players in 2021. Add Collins at 27 and they are still comfortably under the tax. Gallo last year is not guaranteed. So he comes off the books in 2022 when Young max extension kicks in. Since Rondo and Dunn are off the books than too, Atlanta is still comfortably under the tax. 

I will just repeat. Collins will certainly get a max offer (unless everyone is sure Atlanta will match anything, so no one will even bother). If Atlanta is not willing to pay the max, they are trading him this TDL. I bet Atlanta takes the gamble, hopes they can resign him for less, but if not, they will pay him max. They can always trade him.

My bad...I was doing it off of memory and I said 9 when it was 11.

Also, no need to repeat, I’m not arguing with you.  I will copy your post to the Atlanta boards...they will be relieved 

He is obviously my pet cat and I probably spend as much time on their board as here.  I realize boards are not insiders but they are much closer to the team than I.  I believe their big decision is where to allocate their dollars and is Collins a max player.  We probably value him more than their boards do because the sample we see (Collins v. Dallas) is the best Collins.  I will also add that a large % of their posters do not think he is a max player.

And your right, they can always sign him to the max and trade him later but there is risk in that...how many potential trade partners view him as a max, have the need, and what are they willing to part with.  I believe both Collins and Atl. placed a bet.  Collins - I will prove my value...Atl. - you aren’t worth it and if you want to take the risk, fine, we will sign you to a lower value next year.  My prediction is if he makes it past the TDL (which I think he will), they will gamble that they can get him on a contract they like and if not, sign and trade.   I don’t think they will sign him to the max if they don’t intend to keep him.

If I were Donnie and he makes it past the TDL, I would have his agent on speed dial.  As soon as FA begins, I try to get him locked down to an offer and either make Atl. match or do a S&T with us.  Risky...sure.  Likely to work...won’t know until you try.  If you are going to take a shot, this is the off-season to try.

[ClutchDirk]

https://sports.yahoo.com/bradley-beal-is...33548.html

Trade incoming...

[RDB]

My bad...I was doing it off of memory and I said 9 when it was 11.

Also, no need to repeat, I’m not arguing with you.  I will copy your post to the Atlanta boards...they will be relieved 

He is obviously my pet cat and I probably spend as much time on their board as here.  I realize boards are not insiders but they are much closer to the team than I.  I believe their big decision is where to allocate their dollars and is Collins a max player.  We probably value him more than their boards do because the sample we see (Collins v. Dallas) is the best Collins.  I will also add that a large % of their posters do not think he is a max player.

And your right, they can always sign him to the max and trade him later but there is risk in that...how many potential trade partners view him as a max, have the need, and what are they willing to part with.  I believe both Collins and Atl. placed a bet.  Collins - I will prove my value...Atl. - you aren’t worth it and if you want to take the risk, fine, we will sign you to a lower value next year.  My prediction is if he makes it past the TDL (which I think he will), they will gamble that they can get him on a contract they like and if not, sign and trade.   I don’t think they will sign him to the max if they don’t intend to keep him.

If I were Donnie and he makes it past the TDL, I would have his agent on speed dial.  As soon as FA begins, I try to get him locked down to an offer and either make Atl. match or do a S&T with us.  Risky...sure.  Likely to work...won’t know until you try.  If you are going to take a shot, this is the off-season to try.

Come-on KL...where you at?  Don’t make me die on this hill alone.  Surely I have at least one valid argument.  We gotta keep hope alive.

Throw me a bone and I will join the KP non-fan club 

[KillerLeft]

It's certainly a long shot to acquire Collins via restricted free agency. No argument there. 

Having said that, he IS a perfect fit, he COULD be available soon (in one way or another) and the same, definitive "they're not letting him get away" stuff is being said about Collins that I had to read non-stop last offseason about Bogdanovic. Now, obviously, Boganovic isn't nearly the player Collins is, but still - he was an asset. I'm keeping a hope for Collins in a Mavs uniform until it's not possible any longer. 

He's not the ONLY guy I'm hoping for, but he's one of the best options, likely or not.

[RDB]

It's certainly a long shot to acquire Collins via restricted free agency. No argument there. 

Having said that, he IS a perfect fit, he COULD be available soon (in one way or another) and the same, definitive "they're not letting him get away" stuff is being said about Collins that I had to read non-stop last offseason about Bogdanovic. Now, obviously, Boganovic isn't nearly the player Collins is, but still - he was an asset. I'm keeping a hope for Collins in a Mavs uniform until it's not possible any longer. 

He's not the ONLY guy I'm hoping for, but he's one of the best options, likely or not.

Not as positive as I would have liked but I’ll take it.

KP non-fan club
  1.  KL
  2.  RDB

[SleepingHero]

Any trade scenario involving KP is akin to the Mavs trying to trade Nash in 2002. It isn't happening.

[Jason Terry]

A trade for Collins would be something like Green, Brunson and 2025 plus 2027 FRP’s(after removing protections with NYK)

Are we really ready to mortgage the entire future on KP and a guy that just got popped for PED usage? 

Trying to get him in RFA would be insane IMO. Boom, Hardaway and Richardson are gone for nothing and that’s BEFORE we even know if it’s possible. ATL matches and we are screwed for years

Our only chance was if he had a terrible season up to this point and we swoop in and take a chance on him at a discount. It makes no sense why ATL would not keep him when a dozen teams would gladly take Gallinari into cap space this summer

We already made our bed with KP and we will need to lay in it. Collins is reaching way too high. A lesser version(backup quality/expiring/buyout) is about the most we should hope for

[KillerLeft]

Any trade scenario involving KP is akin to the Mavs trying to trade Nash in 2002. It isn't happening.

I agree that's it's not happening, but the real reason is that only a few teams are even in a position to want KP, and none of them would even consider giving anything in return for him with the way he's playing and with the contract he signed.

[SleepingHero]

but the real reason is that only a few teams are even in a position to want KP,

I would argue that the real reason is because the Mavs see KP as a foundational piece like Luka and they wouldn't want to move on from that for what is most likely a worst player. 

Collins is close to KP value wise. If the Mavs were exploring a trade he'd be the type of guy I'd be after. But I just can't see them moving on from KP after he had a slow start. Especially because he had a great 2nd half of the season and playoffs after his slow start last year.

[omahen]

Having said that, he IS a perfect fit, he COULD be available soon (in one way or another) and the same, definitive "they're not letting him get away" stuff is being said about Collins that I had to read non-stop last offseason about Bogdanovic. Now, obviously, Boganovic isn't nearly the player Collins is, but still - he was an asset. I'm keeping a hope for Collins in a Mavs uniform until it's not possible any longer. 

You are wrong about Bogdanovic. Sacramento just changed management. Should have traded Bogi at TDL, since it was obvious the team construction and cap can't survive with Bogi and Hield. But old management did many strange things. New management tried to SnT Bogi, which ended in Milwaukee fiasco. After that it was Bogi who said, he is not interested in any SnT stuff (probably knew the offer Atlanta will make). Player has to agree to a SnT to happen! Atlanta was not interested in any SnT negotiations - I guess they took the gamble.

The new management of Sacramento was given the freedom to decide. "Cap hell" with both Hield and Bogi under long term contracts and all the potential inteam fights about roles or start fresh. They chose the latter.

Collins situations is completely different. Atlanta has to take into account the possibility that Collins will get max offer. If that is too much for them, the only logical possibility for them is to trade him at TDL. Waiting for summer they lose the leverage, as both the player and partner team have to agree to SnT. If they are ok to pay the max, than they can wait till summer, match max offer if it ever comes or negotiate for less if it doesn't. It would be above stupid thing to let near all star RFA just walk.

From Dallas perspective. If Collins makes it to offseason they have to assume Atlanta is willing to match the max. The cost for Dallas to offer max is JRich and THJ. That cost is high in any case, even if they would have guarantee they are able to sign him. Of course they can try negotiating SnT, but I would not expect the price to be any lower than at TDL. That's why I find it very unlikely for Dallas to offer max.

[omahen]

A trade for Collins would be something like Green, Brunson and 2025 plus 2027 FRP’s(after removing protections with NYK)

I think you made great point, I just think the price of Collins would be much different. If Atlanta is trading, it would be for players who can contribute, not youngsters and picks. Then it all depends how much they like certain players. But my guess would be - if they are trading him it would be for a true all star, not a bunch of rotation players. 

But as you said - the way Collins is playing, it would make much more sense for them to trade Gallo or Okongwu. Or perhaps they can be a bit patient and see how their team works once everyone is healthy.

[KillerLeft]

You are wrong about Bogdanovic.

Am I? What I said was that Bogdanovic changed teams via restricted free agency. Did he not?

[omahen]

Am I? What I said was that Bogdanovic changed teams via restricted free agency. Did he not?

Ok, you are correct about that. But the situations are no where near comparable. And Sacramento would have actually traded him, if it wasn't for "once in a lifetime" stupid blunder.

[RDB]

A trade for Collins would be something like Green, Brunson and 2025 plus 2027 FRP’s(after removing protections with NYK)

Are we really ready to mortgage the entire future on KP and a guy that just got popped for PED usage? 

Trying to get him in RFA would be insane IMO. Boom, Hardaway and Richardson are gone for nothing and that’s BEFORE we even know if it’s possible. ATL matches and we are screwed for years

Our only chance was if he had a terrible season up to this point and we swoop in and take a chance on him at a discount. It makes no sense why ATL would not keep him when a dozen teams would gladly take Gallinari into cap space this summer

We already made our bed with KP and we will need to lay in it. Collins is reaching way too high. A lesser version(backup quality/expiring/buyout) is about the most we should hope for

You make a great point on Hardaway and Richardson...though I think Hardaway wants to be here.

I also partially agree with your Atl. keeping him statement, though you assume that’s their desired direction for future growth.  Before the season through recently, I would have bet the farm that they wouldn’t keep him at the max.  Two things have changed that may impact their decision (in my opinion):

  1.  Continued consistency (if prove it again, Collins #’s are basically same as last year)
  2.  De’Andre’s knee injury

Based on De’Andre Hunters improvement from year 1 to 2, the belief that he can guard 3-4 positions, and can play the 2, 3, and small ball 4, many of the Atl. posters and writers have speculated that he will their future 3rd star.

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2021/01/29/...rnerstone/

I’m not saying mortgage the future on one thing and I agree that the odds are not in our favor.  What I am saying is that Donnie should do his due diligence.  I personally am not willing to write off the possibility because we THINK we know what they will do.  Especially when what we think is the minority view among posters on the Atl. board and some writers at Soaring Down South.

[KillerLeft]

Ok, you are correct about that. But the situations are no where near comparable. And Sacramento would have actually traded him, if it wasn't for "once in a lifetime" stupid blunder.

Oh, I understand, trust me. I know that this is an unlikely scenario that you can't "plan" for, if you're a smart team. But, for my point (that unexpected things happen with RFA's from time to time) to be valid, I don't really require the situations to be comparable. 

And, none of this changes what rings true to me regarding Atlanta and Collins.

1. They failed to reach an agreement on an extension.
   
2. They signed a high-profile, high-dollar FA who plays his position.
   
3. They drafted a guy with a high pick who plays his position (I read this the same way I read the Mavs zeroing in on Green - they're hoping he will make it easier to move either THJ or Richardson). 
   

Now, NONE of that means Collins won't be a Hawk, and it seems like he and the team are happier with the relationship now than they were a year ago. But, it did all happen. Collins is more gettable than Giannis, Tatum or a scad of other 4's who would help this team. He's not as getable as some others, probably. That's true. 

You can bully me or others all you want, but I'm watching the situation until he has signed his name on a new Atlanta contract, personally. I won't be shocked or disappointed if/when he does - I'm simply interested in the outcome, and hopefully that somehow, someway, the Mavs can find a way to weasel in on the situation. There are many other situations we talk about daily that are just as unlikely. We're fans. I do NOT think this one is so unlikely as to be deemed not discussion-worthy. You are free to disagree, of course.

[RDB]

Oh, I understand, trust me. I know that this is an unlikely scenario that you can't "plan" for, if you're a smart team. But, for my point (that unexpected things happen with RFA's from time to time) to be valid, I don't really require the situations to be comparable. 

And, none of this changes what rings true to me regarding Atlanta and Collins.

1. They failed to reach an agreement on an extension.
   
2. They signed a high-profile, high-dollar FA who plays his position.
   
3. They drafted a guy with a high pick who plays his position (I read this the same way I read the Mavs zeroing in on Green - they're hoping he will make it easier to move either THJ or Richardson). 
   

Now, NONE of that means Collins won't be a Hawk, and it seems like he and the team are happier with the relationship now than they were a year ago. But, it did all happen. Collins is more gettable than Giannis, Tatum or a scad of other 4's who would help this team. He's not as getable as some others, probably. That's true. 

You can bully me or others all you want, but I'm watching the situation until he has signed his name on a new Atlanta contract, personally. I won't be shocked or disappointed if/when he does - I'm simply interested in the outcome, and hopefully that somehow, someway, the Mavs can find a way to weasel in on the situation. There are many other situations we talk about daily that are just as unlikely. We're fans. I do NOT think this one is so unlikely as to be deemed not discussion-worthy. You are free to disagree, of course.

Official non-KP fan club:
  1.  KL
  2.  RDB

Official KL fan club:
  1.  RDB
  2. RDB