2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[Mavs2019]

I´d start working the Nets hard. Let them know through backchannels that the big Jarrett Allen offer is coming. They have $150M in salaries committed for 2021/2022. I don´t care how rich an owner is, there is no f´d way they can pay Jarrett Allen $20M a year. With all the tax implications that is probably a contract worth $50M per year. 

Start negotiating from a position of strength.

I´d start with Powell + Brunson + two 2nd round picks for Dinwiddie + Allen. It´s talent downgrade, but it keeps their future costs steady. I guess the Nets would ask for Kleber rather than Powell. Unless they want to reduce salary, then THJ comes into play.

I´ll just assume the worse case for the Mavs, that I don´t think the Nets could turn down, as it saves them long-term money at a smallish talent loss.

Kleber + Brunson + two 2nd round picks for Dinwiddie + Allen.

The case for Allen is obvious. At 22 years old he can grow old with Luka. He can play C in case Porzingis goes down. He is super-durable. Not sure he missed a game in the first three years of his career. He is a Tyson Chandler clone. Exactly what Carlisle is looking for in a big. He´s also mobile enough to play alongside Porzingis defensively. He can defend the perimeter. 

Around Powell + Dinwiddie + asset you can probably build a package for Oladipo or another disgruntled star. That seems more than enough compensation for the level expiring Oladipo is currently at.


You got a top 7 rotation of: Doncic, Oladipo, Richardson, Allen, Porzingis, THJ and DFS, including a young big three. You add veteran ring chasers through exceptions.

I´d feel a lot better with DeRozan instead of Oladipo, but not sure whether we have the assets to pull it off. Still feels a little light with the 3rd scorer.

[michaeltex]

I expect the same, and wouldn’t be upset with an extension. 

Having said that, your point seems to pre-assume that losing him in free agency or overpaying a good version of him are terrible outcomes. To me, the single worst outcome is to commit long term dollars to a player and then decide AFTERWARDS that he doesn’t fit. 

One thing we can all agree about, I hope, is that the Mavs’ current culture is good. It seems like everyone around the league who gets asked notes how close the team is and how much they support each other on the court. My hypothesis is that players will WANT to re-sign here. Luka might be a bit young to attract the Giannis/Kawhi types, and I’m not suggesting that the Richardson and THJ types are going to accept huge discounts just to stay, but I’ve never felt like the Mavs were in danger of losing them IF they want them back.

So, to me, there’s value in delaying these extensions or new contracts, keeping the OPTION of using the expiring deals at the deadline alive. I see no compelling argument to commit prior to the trade deadline at all.

I think you can use KP as an example. Used a ton of assets to swing the deal when he was due for an new contract, but wasn't initially committed to DAL. By the time summer came around, there was no problem getting him to sign. I know he may (probably?) not have gotten a big deal anywhere else, but DAL made him feel wanted. 

As you say, neither will take big discounts to stay, but it won't be because they don't like playing here. 

My question is why isn't this environment attractive to more FAs? Cuban pays well for performance and the culture is a winning one (again).

[Mavs2019]

I think you can use KP as an example. Used a ton of assets to swing the deal when he was due for an new contract, but wasn't initially committed to DAL. By the time summer came around, there was no problem getting him to sign. I know he may (probably?) not have gotten a big deal anywhere else, but DAL made him feel wanted. 

As you say, neither will take big discounts to stay, but it won't be because they don't like playing here. 

My question is why isn't this environment attractive to more FAs? Cuban pays well for performance and the culture is a winning one (again).

There are only three teams left with significant capspace that are a destination: Miami (who´ll have plenty of their own to pay), Toronto and Dallas. If we consider the current Knicks, Cavs and Hornets FA competition, we might as well quit.

There are plenty of ways to let the Bulls or Nets know how much we are willing to throw at them. Then it´s up to them to enter possible trade deadline discussion to get an asset back. Would you rather lose Markkanen for nothing or get Jalen Brunson and a 2nd round pick back. And for us that means we get a lower caphold and can target another player in free agency. I think that is the way to go. You just have to pick the right RFA that will be worth the money.

[omahen]

Toronto

They are out of this group since they extended OG. They only have around 10 mil left if they let everybody walk. Unless Powell walks.

I don't understand why would we want an expensive back up center or why would Allen think playing behind KP is better than playing behind Jordan. In any case, Nets will very very likely trade Allen before TDL and couldn't care less about Mavs FA threats. There are plenty of teams looking for a young starting center. Boston, Toronto or Charlotte to name a couple of examples.

As for free agency - I think you are not really up to date. I am 99 % sure Mavs will operate as an over the cap team.

[Mavs2019]

They are out of this group since they extended OG. They only have around 10 mil left if they let everybody walk. Unless Powell walks.

I don't understand why would we want an expensive back up center or why would Allen think playing behind KP is better than playing behind Jordan. In any case, Nets will very very likely trade Allen before TDL and couldn't care less about Mavs FA threats. There are plenty of teams looking for a young starting center. Boston, Toronto or Charlotte to name a couple of examples.

As for free agency - I think you are not really up to date. I am 99 % sure Mavs will operate as an over the cap team.

Only matters what they can do, not what they will do. To pose a believable threat to the Bulls or Nets in RFA trade discussions (or Oladipo/DeRozan for that matter), you need easy access to maximum capspace. 

Why would Allen play behind Porzingis? Allen is the long-term Tyson replacement. Did Dirk not play with Tyson? So why would Porzingis (or Kleber) not be able to play with Allen. This whole idea of small ball was squashed by Davis/Dwight. Next season the Lakers will play combinations of Davis/Gasol/Harrell together.

Furthermore Allen would be a high-end injury insurance for Porzingis and a very sufficient rest replacement. Even if people try to ignore the elephant in the room, the injury threat is still there. Allen was fantastic in the bubble.

The only problem is to get rid of the now useless Dwight Powell.

I can hardly think of better 96 minutes at PF/C in the whole league than Porzingis/Allen/Kleber.

Of course the Mavs need to sell this scenario to Allen, but damn the master shark should be able to sell a Lukaborghini and Porschingis with a $20M briefcase riding shotgun. The minutes are there.

[fifteenth]

This whole idea of small ball was squashed by Davis/Dwight.

I don't think so. Dwight and McGee played a good bit in the regular season, and some in the playoffs, but iir the Lakers went away from Dwight and McGee when playoff series got more difficult. Dwight was only 9th on the team in mpg for the playoffs.

[ItsGoTime]

You got a top 7 rotation of: Doncic, Oladipo, Richardson, Allen, Porzingis, THJ and DFS, including a young big three. You add veteran ring chasers through exceptions.

So THIS is a rotation I can get behind with THJ still being on the roster. 2 out of 7 players being lesser or even defenders with the rest being +. I wouldn't even care if THJ started in this instance (which in this case it would be hard to sit VO since we would have just traded FOR him or Allen for the same reason. I can't see JRich sitting after the preseason he had with Luka, however, plenty of basketball to be played this season) cause we'd have at least 3 + defenders with him and Luka and then bring in 2 more good defenders from the bench.

I've been a sell high on THJ proponent since he showed a bit of something on our team. If he does just as well as last year, I might change my tune on him with our FO focus on acquiring better defenders. That has always been my gripe essentially anyway.

[Kammrath]

if the Mavs aren´t sold on THJ as a fit in the lineup.

That is my intuitive read on this situation. 

I think the Mavs aren't convinced about THJ the way they were convinced about DP before his injury. 

RC & Cuban have both been talking about lineup data this past fall quite a bit. If they are looking at that stuff, then I think there are legit concerns about THJ's longterm fit. If JRich is the guard next to Luka then the Mavs need to accumulate more data with THJ as the 3 and see how it works before committing.

[SleepingHero]

Brunson is the new whipping boy around here, maybe as much as Powell? I really like Brunson but this is an important year. He hadn't really earned regular rotation minutes until the second half of last season. I do think he has some ball hogging tendencies but I like his overall game. On the one hand, backup PGs are not too hard to find, on the other we are talking about Rick Carlisle. Finding PG's that Rick trusts is really hard.

I mean lets give him a chance this season before we write him off... lol?

True Brunson last year left a feeling that he didn't really improve much. He had some great moments, but overall it wasn't a big step forward and before we knew it he was out for the season from a shoulder injury. But before we say he "ain't shit" and he's the new whipping boy, lets actually see how he performs the first 10-15 games of the season.

If he looks more of the same, then I'll agree with you that we should sell high since he looks to be a solid 2nd stringer at best, but maybe he actually takes a big step forward and we found a good playmaking guard that can start next to Luka.

[cow]

I just don't see THJ here long term. I know he wants to be here, but I'm thinking Josh Richardson is going to get a contract in line with the contract THJ is currently on. I think THJ is going to want a similar contract and I can't imagine paying them both ~18m per year.

[dirkfansince1998]

I just don't see THJ here long term.  I know he wants to be here, but I'm thinking Josh Richardson is going to get a contract in line with the contract THJ is currently on.  I think THJ is going to want a similar contract and I can't imagine paying them both ~18m per year.

I think JRich gets at least 20+m. THJ should be happy if he gets a contract in the Kennard range. Anything between 12-15m seems reasonable.

[cow]

I think JRich gets at least 20+m. THJ should be happy if he gets a contract in the Kennard range. Anything between 12-15m seems reasonable.

I wouldn't mind THJ starting at 12m but that's a massive hair cut.  I know he loves it here but I think he could do better in free agency.

[KillerLeft]

Setting aside whether he’s a long term fit in Dallas or not, if THJ shoots 40% on a high volume of 3pt attempts again, he’s going to get a RAISE, not a pay decrease.

Big if, which is why I’m ok with them not negotiating now.

[StepBackJay]

How bow Powell + Johnson for Al Horford, who says no?

Mavs love veteran leadership, Horford brings that. His contract is actually not that bad bc the last year isn't fully guaranteed. He is an infinitely better defender than Powell and can shoot outside. I feel like his leadership could do for the Mavs what he did for a the Celtics when he was there.

[Mavs2019]

Setting aside whether he’s a long term fit in Dallas or not, if THJ shoots 40% on a high volume of 3pt attempts again, he’s going to get a RAISE, not a pay decrease.

Big if, which is why I’m ok with them not negotiating now.

Who in the world is paying THJ 20M a year?

The teams with that much capspace are:

Cleveland
Charlotte
Chicago
Detroit
New York
San Antonio
Oklahoma City
Miami
Toronto
Dallas

Available guards (as far as I am aware):

DeRozan
Oladipo
Conley
Lowry
Richardson
Fournier
Schroeder
THJ
Rose
Ball
Monk
Hart
Mykhailuk
Trent Jr.
Nunn
Horton-Tucker

I´m completely setting aside the question whether THJ wants to play there.

Who out of those team says: yeah gimme some of that for 20 mil?

I think, if Dallas offers $14M, THJ happily takes it.

There is not much of a market for THJ imho.

[Scott41theMavs]

Brunson is the new whipping boy around here, maybe as much as Powell? I really like Brunson but this is an important year. He hadn't really earned regular rotation minutes until the second half of last season. I do think he has some ball hogging tendencies but I like his overall game. On the one hand, backup PGs are not too hard to find, on the other we are talking about Rick Carlisle. Finding PG's that Rick trusts is really hard.

I mean lets give him a chance this season before we write him off... lol?

True Brunson last year left a feeling that he didn't really improve much. He had some great moments, but overall it wasn't a big step forward and before we knew it he was out for the season from a shoulder injury. But before we say he "ain't shit" and he's the new whipping boy, lets actually see how he performs the first 10-15 games of the season.

If he looks more of the same, then I'll agree with you that we should sell high since he looks to be a solid 2nd stringer at best, but maybe he actually takes a big step forward and we found a good playmaking guard that can start next to Luka.

Rick needs to work really hard on Brunson, watching film with him and showing him his tendencies toward tunnel vision. It's not like he's Monta Ellis and can justify that crap. He needs to become a creator, or he's going to end up a wasted asset.

I actually like the Rozier idea earlier in this thread. I don't think there's any problem targeting a starter-level PG. We need another creator next to Luka. Luka would still be the main PG, but you generally don't want him guarding PGs anyway, so a PG-JRich-Luka-DFS-KP lineup is a pretty good idea. Even better if you can get a replacement for DFS who's a little more rangy.

[BigDirk41]

I agree IF THJ shoots 40% from 3 again on similar volume, he won't be taking a pay cut. I'll be glad if he signs for less, but I think he would need to have a poor year shooting the ball to reduce his pay.

[Scott41theMavs]

Setting aside whether he’s a long term fit in Dallas or not, if THJ shoots 40% on a high volume of 3pt attempts again, he’s going to get a RAISE, not a pay decrease.

Big if, which is why I’m ok with them not negotiating now.

Who in the world is paying THJ 20M a year?

The teams with that much capspace are:

Cleveland
Charlotte
Chicago
Detroit
New York
San Antonio
Oklahoma City
Miami
Toronto
Dallas

Available guards (as far as I am aware):

DeRozan
Oladipo
Conley
Lowry
Richardson
Fournier
Schroeder
THJ
Rose
Ball
Monk
Hart
Mykhailuk
Trent Jr.
Nunn
Horton-Tucker

I´m completely setting aside the question whether THJ wants to play there.

Who out of those team says: yeah gimme some of that for 20 mil?

I think, if Dallas offers $14M, THJ happily takes it.

There is not much of a market for THJ imho.

The main refutation of your argument is the Mavs' tendency to bid against themselves.

[Mavs2019]

I agree IF THJ shoots 40% from 3 again on similar volume, he won't be taking a pay cut.

He can´t force teams to pay him and contenders will look at DeRozan, Oladipo, Lowry, Conley, Fournier, Richardson and Schroeder ahead of him imho. Rebuilding teams will look at Ball, Trent Jr., Graham, Hart, Mykhailuk and maybe even some other reclamation projects.

THJ is a roleplayer on a contender.

---

The main refutation of your argument is the Mavs' tendency to bid against themselves.

That´s true. I can´t dispute that, but they´ll be busy to retain Richardson and maybe forget overpaying THJ, if he´s still here.

[SleepingHero]

I actually like the Rozier idea earlier in this thread

*Barf*

Are we seriously trying to talk ourselves into Scary Terry? Look I get it. Roizer goes to a crap team and puts up somewhat reasonable numbers in big minutes. But Roizer isn't getting 15 shots a game here. He isn't running the offense. He's going back to his role in Boston at best, and in that role he's averaged 7ppg on 38/35/77. That's worse than what Brunson is giving us right now. 

Add on top Roizer's 19mil he's due this year and 18 mil next, I'm puzzled why we would entertain a Roizer for Brunson swap. 

I'm more interested in flipping THJ and using Brunson as the sweetener. My B U D D Y keys are actually broken on my keyboard from how much I've typed it over the summer, but Buddy seems to me the best singular upgrade. 

Kings also have Corey Joesph as a good vet that has played under Pop for many years who would most likely thrive under Carlisle's system coming off the bench. The money would make it tricky.

The Mavs could easily trade THJ+Brunson for Buddy and call it a day, but if we want Joesph we'd need to add at least an outgoing salary of 5 mil. When you start adding more salaries to a trade, the less likely it'll actually work out. The only realistic one I could muster was

Holmes+Joesph+Buddy for THJ+Powell+Brunson works on paper, but I doubt the Kings would be interested in that at all.