DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[SleepingHero]

There are better players in the world than THJ, but the fascination with moving him, especially given that he fits an important role here, fits the locker room, wants to be here, is on an expiring deal and actually played really well last season is weird to me. 

I wouldn't say I have a fascination of moving on from THJ. But I am trying to read the tea leaves. By all accounts, THJ had an outlier year last season. He overperformed in almost all of his advanced stats across the board.  

We saw tangible evidence that his season last year was truly an outlier, not a brand new THJ. In the bubble, including playoffs, THJ went 38/112 from 3 (33.9%). That is almost exactly his career 3pt percentage. Last year he shot nearly 4 points over his career number. We have to ask ourselves is that really sustainable? And if not, why shouldn't the Mavs go and try to fix that before THJ loses his 40% luster when the next season starts??

Again, I wouldn't really care if the Mavs keep THJ and rock this roster. I'm excited for what's in store. But I also wouldn't be surprised if THJ takes a massive step back.

[StepBackJay]

Just bring in all the guys we plan on signing. Stay over the cap and re-sign them all. Keep the MLE

Ya that's what I'd like to do. Honestly I think Giannis signs the Supermax and puts us out of our misery. I would rather that happen then get jerked around for a year only to see him stay or head to the Raptors.

[omahen]

Would I rather have a 20% at Giannis or grab Anunoby and retain Richardson?  I might take the latter.

This is why I am so affraid of 2021 free agency. Will those guys really wait for Giannis decision or take their 20 per offers somewhere else, while they are still on the table.

[StepBackJay]

There are better players in the world than THJ, but the fascination with moving him, especially given that he fits an important role here, fits the locker room, wants to be here, is on an expiring deal and actually played really well last season is weird to me. 

I wouldn't say I have a fascination of moving on from THJ. But I am trying to read the tea leaves. By all accounts, THJ had an outlier year last season. He overperformed in almost all of his advanced stats across the board.  

We saw tangible evidence that his season last year was truly an outlier, not a brand new THJ. In the bubble, including playoffs, THJ went 38/112 from 3 (33.9%). That is almost exactly his career 3pt percentage. Last year he shot nearly 6 points over his career number. We have to ask ourselves is that really sustainable? And if not, why shouldn't the Mavs go and try to fix that before THJ loses his 40% luster when the next season starts??

Again, I wouldn't really care if the Mavs keep THJ and rock this roster. I'm excited for what's in store. But I also wouldn't be surprised if THJ takes a massive step back.

Nah I don't think THJ had an outlier year, I expect him to do well again, maybe even better. That's bc the outlier is playing with an all-time great in Luka Doncic. I would expect to see him have the same effect on J Rich. But that's also why I don't overrate THJ. I really like THJ and his fit on this team as @"KillerLeft" was alluding to. That being said, if I could upgrade him into Hield who wants to be here I would do so. I would expect Hield to play even better next to Luka just bc that's the Luka effect. I think he guy he plays next to basically gets a letter grade bump. It's part Luka, part Rick but we are going to see this happen over and over again.

I think that effect allowed us to sell high on Curry and buy lower on J Rich who to me has a higher upside.

[SleepingHero]

Nah I don't think THJ had an outlier year, I expect him to do well again, maybe even better. That's bc the outlier is playing with an all-time great in Luka Doncic.

You say that, but then why didn't THJ play like his 40% 3pt new version self over 14 games in the bubble? 

Now again, don't get me wrong, I like THJ. I think he is a valued scorer and he has the ability to get scorching hot. The ultimate heat check. But it's a bit disconcerting seeing THJ already take a step back when it mattered most in the playoffs and everyone thinks that THAT is the outlier and not the efficient shooting he had. 

I agree with you though that Luka's gravity does play into affect here. And that effect would be even more pronounced for a more lethal shooter like Buddy. Again, I'm excited for this upcoming season, but I don't think thinking THJ reverting back to his old self is an unreasonable take, given that it already happened.

[Mavs2019]

What nearly six months are you speaking about? He had operation on 9th of October, which makes 9th of January 3 months after the surgery. So if he is back in January, he misses less than 4 months. They also said on the same podcast, that this injury was not wear/tear related, so no need for heavy load management once he is totally healed.

If we was ready for training Dec. 1st would you allow me to say: Hey but what if his conventional healing hadn´t been successful? Then he would have needed surgery in October, so therefore I´ll just pretend he is really out until mid January. That makes no sense.

The time you are out with an injury, starts the day you get injured and ends the day you step back on the court.

[omahen]

The time you are out with an injury, starts the day you get injured and ends the day you step back on the court.

Not true. Rehabilitation after the operation of the meniscus tear lasts 3 months. The operation was on October 9th

[Mavs2019]

The was -58 in the play-offs series against the Clippers. THJ was -84.

If you exclude the game five blowout:

The team was -13. THJ was -61. Didn´t have a positive +/- in any game.

Last season he averaged 5.9 (added up rebounds/assists/blocks/assists) per game. He had a little higher assist numbers in NYC, but even as the virtual #1 option he never topped 2.7 APG. Outside of his 3pt shooting he contributes very little to the Mavs all-around and we have consistently heard they are looking for a second play-maker.

For comparison:

Demar Derozan 11.4
Zach Lavine 9.0
Buddy Hield 8.7
Bogdan Bogdanovic 8.0
Evan Fournier 7.1
Wes Matthews 4.6

Imho the Mavs aren´t nearly as attached to THJ (the player) as people here seem to think. You never badmouth your own players, because that hurts their trade value. You always big them up, especially when THJ is the main "contract matching"-asset to acquire somebody like a Hield.

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The time you are out with an injury, starts the day you get injured and ends the day you step back on the court.

Not true. Rehabilitation after the operation of the meniscus tear lasts 3 months. The operation was on October 9th

So he wasn´t injured in games 5+6 of the Clippers series?

I hope Luka doesn´t find out that Carlisle gave Porzingis two DNPs - Rest.

[omahen]

I have read Q&A with Sacramento beat writer at The Athletic and opinion is that they will go into another rebuild, because the core they have is just not good enough. But, they will only trade Buddy for a good offer.

[Tyler]

https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status...62979?s=20

"...someone who knows Giannis well told me..."

LOL. If that isn't the most obvious agent leak of the day I don't know what is. Doing his job well, though.

[omahen]

So he wasn´t injured in games 5+6 of the Clippers series?

Is it really that difficult? Rehabilitation starts after operation.

[DallasMaverick]

So...

This board seemed pretty happy about trading Seth Curry for Josh Richardson. Yes, we give up a little shooting, but we gain significantly on the defensive end.

But when it comes to Buddy Hield, suddenly we're trying to get back Seth. Gain some shooting at the expense of a little better defense by THJ.

Not consistent.

Maybe it's just that Hield is the shiny new toy...

[omahen]

But when it comes to Buddy Hield, suddenly we're trying to get back Seth.  Gain some shooting at the expense of a little better defense by THJ.

I would say Hield is approximately same level defensively, but much better offensively. We remain same defense, improve offense - that is the idea. If of course Sacramento would take THJ and a couple of second rounders for Hield.

[dirkfansince1998]

So...

This board seemed pretty happy about trading Seth Curry for Josh Richardson.  Yes, we give up a little shooting, but we gain significantly on the defensive end.

But when it comes to Buddy Hield, suddenly we're trying to get back Seth.  Gain some shooting at the expense of a little better defense by THJ.

Not consistent.

Maybe it's just that Hield is the shiny new toy...

THJ is a liability on defense. Just as Hield or Curry. He might be a little bit better on the ball but he is the worst team defender on the current Mavs roster.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

well said @"Mavs2019"

THJ provides a whole lot of nothing other than volume 3pt shooting and last year was BY FAR his best year.  Maybe he continues it.  Maybe he doesnt.

Mavs are always complimentary of their players.  But they were shopping Brunson if you believe the above report.  If they keep THJ long term, I think it'll be because they strike out on someone better, not because they love him that much.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So...

This board seemed pretty happy about trading Seth Curry for Josh Richardson.  Yes, we give up a little shooting, but we gain significantly on the defensive end.

But when it comes to Buddy Hield, suddenly we're trying to get back Seth.  Gain some shooting at the expense of a little better defense by THJ.

Not consistent.

Maybe it's just that Hield is the shiny new toy...

Not this small portion of "the board".  Ten foot pole.  No interest in Buddy.

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The was -58 in the play-offs series against the Clippers. THJ was -84.

If you exclude the game five blowout:

The team was -13. THJ was -61. Didn´t have a positive +/- in any game.

Last season he averaged 5.9 (added up rebounds/assists/blocks/assists) per game. He had a little higher assist numbers in NYC, but even as the virtual #1 option he never topped 2.7 APG. Outside of his 3pt shooting he contributes very little to the Mavs all-around and we have consistently heard they are looking for a second play-maker.

Super small sample size while the team was ravaged with injuries.  I'd have to go back to Popcorn Machine, but I recall THJ playing a lot of minutes when Luka sat trying to be the starter who held the bench together offensively.  There is a big difference between his ability to do that and what he looks like as a 4th option.

BTW, for the full season the O was 3.2 pp100 better when he played and the D was 0.6 pp100 worse for a net of 2.6 to the good.

[Mavs2019]

So he wasn´t injured in games 5+6 of the Clippers series?

Is it really that difficult?

Apparently.

I have literally, and that was LITERALLY until about an hour ago, never heard anyone argue that you are not injured from the moment you start missing time with an injury. That the counter only starts with a surgery.

What if you miss the whole NBA play-offs with an high ankle sprain? What do you call that? An early paid summer vacation?

[fifteenth]

Not this small portion of "the board".  Ten foot pole.  No interest in Buddy.

Why the low interest in Buddy? Not "two-way" enough for the price tag? Not significant enough of an improvement for the price tag over what we have? Messes with continuity? We'd have to send out to make it work? Takes us out of the running for better options that could come with some patience? All the above? Other things?

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So he wasn´t injured in games 5+6 of the Clippers series?

Is it really that difficult?

Apparently.

I have literally, and that was LITERALLY until about an hour ago, never heard anyone argue that you are not injured from the moment you start missing time with an injury. That the counter only starts with a surgery.

What if you miss the whole NBA play-offs with an high ankle sprain? What do you call that? An early paid summer vacation?

Probably a bad idea to try to help, but, I it's pretty clear that you guys are talking about two different things.

[SleepingHero]

  Gain some shooting at the expense of a little better defense by THJ.

Gain some shooting is probably the biggest downplay of Hields talents. The gap between Hield's shooting ability and THJ's shooting ability is akin to comparing Ray Allen to Kevin Martin. 

I feel like I'm a broken record. Hield's accuracy and volume is only surpassed by Steph Curry so far in their respective careers. Here are just some fun facts I posted a couple pages ago really detailing how good of a shooter Hield is.  

-Buddy has made more 3's in the last 2 years than Seth Curry has made in his entire career (549 to 446).
-Buddy's worst year as a pro (his rookie year) saw him average 39% from 3, and made 148 threes total. Good for 29th in the league. Seth Curry last year made the most 3's he's ever made as a pro with 145.
-Buddy has 873 made 3's in his career. He's made the most 3's in the shortest amount of time in NBA history. He beat Steph Curry by 8 games.
-THJ has 944 made threes in his entire 7 year career. This means Buddy is 71 threes off from THJ. He'll surpass him next season, which means he got to THJ's career mark 3 years faster than him.

[fifteenth]

Super small sample size while the team was ravaged with injuries.  I'd have to go back to Popcorn Machine, but I recall THJ playing a lot of minutes when Luka sat trying to be the starter who held the bench together offensively.  There is a big difference between his ability to do that and what he looks like as a 4th option.

BTW, for the full season the O was 3.2 pp100 better when he played and the D was 0.6 pp100 worse for a net of 2.6 to the good.

Well said @"DanSchwartzman" :-)