2026 NBA draft thread

[Scott41theMavs]

I decided to take up the challenge presented by dirkfan's comment to FGump that the team as is didn't have a lot of talent. Back in the golden years when we had Dirk and then Luka, I used to evaluate players we had on the basis of what their role would be on a championship team at that point, to pinpoint what our quantitative needs were in terms of talent quotient. So here's how I look at the roster at the close of the season (presuming a healthy Kyrie and a putatively healthy Lively at the beginning of next season) in order of the talent value of the player (which is not the same as the trade value or longevity issue):

Cooper: Right now, I'd say he rates as a very low level Robin. However, simply looking at the gargantuan BBIQ-based Matrix-I-know-Kung-Fu growth over the course of his rookie season, his maturity, and the completeness of his game, I think that's a huge coronation of how fantastic he is already. Re: Coop vs. Luka's rookie year: Luka of course represents heliocentrism, whereas, this year, Coop (with one single other player, below) *was* the offense this year. Enormous difference. Let him play with some other guys who can score, and watch him explode. If he can get his NBA-range three consistent through hard work this summer (and this young man has the work ethic), he becomes a quite solid Robin. Given what his trajectory and work ethic have already shown us, I think it's clear that the only thing that could existentially prevent him from being a rock-solid Batman by the beginning of year 3 would be major injury problems in the second year. That's it.  

Kyrie: 3rd best player on a championship team if he's ready by opening night, which I certainly presume he will be. He was low-level Robin level pre-injury. I think it's pretty risible to assert the possibility of him returning at the same level given the injury and his age. 

Naji Marshall: 6th-man quality, if not 6th-man role. A much more reliable create-his-own-shot scorer than PJ, but a fair amount weaker on D. Obviously becomes reasonable contender-level starter if he somehow gets his 3 to 40%.

PJ: Prior to the Luka trade, I would have said 4th-best contender starter quality. With how poor he's played this year, I don't know what to say. I'd say 7th-best quality at this point, but perhaps he bounces back if the team's creation and collective defense improve.

Gafford: Depends on which Gafford we get. They ran lots of pick and rolls with him and Coop at the end of the year and he looked like his old self. Lots of folks saying, "Gaff is just useless here without Luka because he can't do what he's good at." Tell me you didn't watch the last 15 games without telling me you didn't watch the last 15 games. I seem to recall that Kyrie runs a pretty good pick and roll too. If they do that consistently next year, he's more than fine as at least a 20-24 minute center. 7th man level quality based on that. 

Lively: Anywhere from 5th-best on a contending team to no place on a contending team. We just don't know how reliable he's going to be next year.

Cisse: Given his motor and talent level, I think he's a fine backup center, even on a contending team. 9th man level.

I would argue that Christie, Bagley, and Middleton are all 10th-man level at this point. Perhaps Klay as well, though I'd prefer to look at him like '11 Peja - 11th man who can help you by playing a role extremely well in a pinch, but not reliably. Nembhard and Williams (due to no D) as 11th men. Powell as a 12th man/locker room presence. Poulakidas 12th man with a bullet. Martin far deep bench. Smith 2-way, Johnson not an NBA player.

In all, after looking at this, I'd have to agree with Dirkfan overall. This is at best a fringe playoff team next year without major moves, and a lot of that hinges on hitting a home run with our lottery pick. I think you need Kyrie around next year for the sake of Flagg and our draftee's (if he's worth caring about in that way) continued growth and maturity, but I could see some value in selling off Naji, PJ, and Gafford, as well as Klay if someone is dumb enough to give you anything for him. I would lean toward keeping Naji and even Gafford unless someone really wows you with value though. As for Lively, I want to see what the new medical staff (please be Casey and co.) says about him before putting him on the market.

[Chicagojk]

I am having trouble with Philon. I think he was awesome this year but I have liked other Alabama guards. I think the role he played as a freshman is probably closer to the role he will play as a pro. A sort of jack of all trades type. I just feel sort of lukewarm if the Mavs wind up with him at 9-10. I sort of view him as a JV SGA. Not as tall, athletic, or obviosly as good. He sort of has that same ability to just sneak to the rim. Very crafty.

https://youtu.be/T0n93BbcTPw?si=gljB6CBqqgRmQKrl


Btw Philon and Brown gets the award for changing their hair styles too much. Tough to keep track of him..

[Winter]

I am having trouble with Philon.  I think he was awesome this year but I have liked other Alabama guards.  I  think the role he played as a freshman is probably closer to the role he will play as a pro.  A sort of jack of all trades type.  I just feel sort of lukewarm if the Mavs wind up with him at 9-10.  I sort of view him as a JV SGA.  Not as tall, athletic, or obviosly as good.  He sort of has that same ability to just sneak to the rim.  Very crafty.

https://youtu.be/T0n93BbcTPw?si=gljB6CBqqgRmQKrl


Btw Philon and Brown gets the award for changing their hair styles too much.  Tough to keep track of him..

If I'm the Mavs at 9 or 10, I'm not sure any of the PGs in the first round make me excited. I'd rather try to get a veteran PG in a trade. I'm still undecided about the pick though. Burries maybe, but I might rather see about trying to move out of that slot.

[F Gump]

I decided to take up the challenge presented by dirkfan's comment to FGump that the team as is didn't have a lot of talent. Back in the golden years when we had Dirk and then Luka, I used to evaluate players we had on the basis of what their role would be on a championship team at that point, to pinpoint what our quantitative needs were in terms of talent quotient. So here's how I look at the roster at the close of the season (presuming a healthy Kyrie and a putatively healthy Lively at the beginning of next season) in order of the talent value of the player (which is not the same as the trade value or longevity issue):

Thanks for the detailed thoughts on each player. Good points. 

I think there are several other factors in play that are impossible to gauge, but that can make a significant difference in the overall team potential.
1 Health (or continuity) -- if the Mavs don't have game after game of "who's injured today" then they can better build what works and keep improving it
2 The ability of key players we don't know yet -- the Mavs will get a top 10 pick, and might get a good MLE player too, and perhaps might make a trade for someone who provides an upgrade. More talent helps. Adding "top talent" makes lesser talent play better, because they can perhaps match up against weaker players.
3 The synergy of inserting better players improves all 4 players alongside - The Mavs played with HUGE holes in the lineup all the time this past season, and it drains the impact of good players when they are not playing with other good players. To speak to one of your question marks, did PJ not look that good on defense because he has slipped, or because he was often playing with 2, 3, or 4 players who couldn't defend a 3rd grader? Maybe if he's in a lineup with good defenders everywhere, he returns to exactly what he always ways before. Synergy is a multiplier. Good enhances good.
....The point being, many of these players may look very different once you have 15 healthy players, and you've changed out some meh guys for perhaps 2-3 guys who will offer upgrades. Each plus change is a ripple effect.
4 We should probably also add that this team was not exactly trying to be a winner all season in 2025-26. Change the intent, and you also might see an invisible upgrade in what players look like.

Shopping list starts with Expert GM (Presti, please!). 
Then he acquires Expert Training/Medical Staff. 
Then he works the roster, with some of the most important moves being decisions on who to draft, who to chase with the MLE, who if anyone to swap (coming AND going), and which fringe players need to be removed from the mix.

Oh, and btw, if this is "only" a fringe playoff team next season, imo that is a GREAT year. Make the playoffs, and get Flagg's feet wet, that's a high bar from where this season ended, but it would also be a steppingstone to greater things in following years.

[Smitty]

@FOXSportsKnox
Tennessee forward Nate Ament’s representatives are split on whether he should stay in college or go to the NBA, per @KevinOConnor

Yahoo Sports senior NBA analyst Kevin O’Connor revealed his most recent mock draft on Wednesday, and provided new intel on #Vols forward Nate Ament.

“League front office executives tell me that his agency, LIFT Sports Management, is split on the decision because they believe that Ament could be the No. 1 pick in 2027,” wrote O’Connor.

“If Ament falls outside of the lottery, he’d be playing for less money this year and potentially hurting his future earnings.”

O’Connor slated Ament at No. 18 to the Charlotte Hornets in his updated mock.

“For financial reasons it may make sense to return, and more importantly, for his own development to get one more year to improve physically and progress his skills,” O’Connor continued.

The six-foot-10 forward averaged 16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 40% shooting in 35 games this season.

[Scott41theMavs]

Dybantsa apparently announced he will have "big news" tomorrow.

That tells me that one of two things is true:
1) he's returning to BYU for another season (man bites dog) and is a little bit of a drama queen.
2) he's officially declaring (dog bites man) and is a problematically annoying drama queen.

[Mavs2021]

Looks like the NBA has solved tanking without even realizing it haha. Paying college kids huge money basically makes it unattractive to leave college outside a certain draft range or in a certain draft class as a freshman. What a perverted system, but that will become a funny fight. Can´t think the NBA billionaires will be happy about this development.

[michaeltex]

I decided to take up the challenge presented by dirkfan's comment to FGump that the team as is didn't have a lot of talent. Back in the golden years when we had Dirk and then Luka, I used to evaluate players we had on the basis of what their role would be on a championship team at that point, to pinpoint what our quantitative needs were in terms of talent quotient. So here's how I look at the roster at the close of the season (presuming a healthy Kyrie and a putatively healthy Lively at the beginning of next season) in order of the talent value of the player (which is not the same as the trade value or longevity issue):

Cooper: Right now, I'd say he rates as a very low level Robin. However, simply looking at the gargantuan BBIQ-based Matrix-I-know-Kung-Fu growth over the course of his rookie season, his maturity, and the completeness of his game, I think that's a huge coronation of how fantastic he is already. Re: Coop vs. Luka's rookie year: Luka of course represents heliocentrism, whereas, this year, Coop (with one single other player, below) *was* the offense this year. Enormous difference. Let him play with some other guys who can score, and watch him explode. If he can get his NBA-range three consistent through hard work this summer (and this young man has the work ethic), he becomes a quite solid Robin. Given what his trajectory and work ethic have already shown us, I think it's clear that the only thing that could existentially prevent him from being a rock-solid Batman by the beginning of year 3 would be major injury problems in the second year. That's it.  

Kyrie: 3rd best player on a championship team if he's ready by opening night, which I certainly presume he will be. He was low-level Robin level pre-injury. I think it's pretty risible to assert the possibility of him returning at the same level given the injury and his age. 

Naji Marshall: 6th-man quality, if not 6th-man role. A much more reliable create-his-own-shot scorer than PJ, but a fair amount weaker on D. Obviously becomes reasonable contender-level starter if he somehow gets his 3 to 40%.

PJ: Prior to the Luka trade, I would have said 4th-best contender starter quality. With how poor he's played this year, I don't know what to say. I'd say 7th-best quality at this point, but perhaps he bounces back if the team's creation and collective defense improve.

Gafford: Depends on which Gafford we get. They ran lots of pick and rolls with him and Coop at the end of the year and he looked like his old self. Lots of folks saying, "Gaff is just useless here without Luka because he can't do what he's good at." Tell me you didn't watch the last 15 games without telling me you didn't watch the last 15 games. I seem to recall that Kyrie runs a pretty good pick and roll too. If they do that consistently next year, he's more than fine as at least a 20-24 minute center. 7th man level quality based on that. 

Lively: Anywhere from 5th-best on a contending team to no place on a contending team. We just don't know how reliable he's going to be next year.

Cisse: Given his motor and talent level, I think he's a fine backup center, even on a contending team. 9th man level.

I would argue that Christie, Bagley, and Middleton are all 10th-man level at this point. Perhaps Klay as well, though I'd prefer to look at him like '11 Peja - 11th man who can help you by playing a role extremely well in a pinch, but not reliably. Nembhard and Williams (due to no D) as 11th men. Powell as a 12th man/locker room presence. Poulakidas 12th man with a bullet. Martin far deep bench. Smith 2-way, Johnson not an NBA player.

In all, after looking at this, I'd have to agree with Dirkfan overall. This is at best a fringe playoff team next year without major moves, and a lot of that hinges on hitting a home run with our lottery pick. I think you need Kyrie around next year for the sake of Flagg and our draftee's (if he's worth caring about in that way) continued growth and maturity, but I could see some value in selling off Naji, PJ, and Gafford, as well as Klay if someone is dumb enough to give you anything for him. I would lean toward keeping Naji and even Gafford unless someone really wows you with value though. As for Lively, I want to see what the new medical staff (please be Casey and co.) says about him before putting him on the market.

Really love your analysis, but I was wondering who's #2? or is just that there is no #1? Is that a role the FRPs and/or FAs are supposed to fill?

[michaeltex]

Thanks for the detailed thoughts on each player. Good points. 

I think there are several other factors in play that are impossible to gauge, but that can make a significant difference in the overall team potential.
1 Health (or continuity) -- if the Mavs don't have game after game of "who's injured today" then they can better build what works and keep improving it
2 The ability of key players we don't know yet -- the Mavs will get a top 10 pick, and might get a good MLE player too, and perhaps might make a trade for someone who provides an upgrade. More talent helps. Adding "top talent" makes lesser talent play better, because they can perhaps match up against weaker players.
3 The synergy of inserting better players improves all 4 players alongside - The Mavs played with HUGE holes in the lineup all the time this past season, and it drains the impact of good players when they are not playing with other good players. To speak to one of your question marks, did PJ not look that good on defense because he has slipped, or because he was often playing with 2, 3, or 4 players who couldn't defend a 3rd grader? Maybe if he's in a lineup with good defenders everywhere, he returns to exactly what he always ways before. Synergy is a multiplier. Good enhances good.
....The point being, many of these players may look very different once you have 15 healthy players, and you've changed out some meh guys for perhaps 2-3 guys who will offer upgrades. Each plus change is a ripple effect.
4 We should probably also add that this team was not exactly trying to be a winner all season in 2025-26. Change the intent, and you also might see an invisible upgrade in what players look like.

Shopping list starts with Expert GM (Presti, please!). 
Then he acquires Expert Training/Medical Staff. 
Then he works the roster, with some of the most important moves being decisions on who to draft, who to chase with the MLE, who if anyone to swap (coming AND going), and which fringe players need to be removed from the mix.

Oh, and btw, if this is "only" a fringe playoff team next season, imo that is a GREAT year. Make the playoffs, and get Flagg's feet wet, that's a high bar from where this season ended, but it would also be a steppingstone to greater things in following years.

I agree with your #4 point. There wasn't a lot of "want to" from a lot of the veterans. Mostly they just wanted to get to the finish line without any injuries. I'd say that goes for the management as well. Nobody missing big time at the end of the season or needing some type of corrective surgery that prevents them from camping in September.

I'd say mission accomplished on that part. Lively doesn't count since he's still dealing with an issue from the previous season.

[Scott41theMavs]

Really love your analysis, but I was wondering who's #2? or is just that there is no #1? Is that a role the FRPs and/or FAs are supposed to fill?

So the idea of my analysis is to gauge how good a guy is based on what role he's good enough to play on a championship contender. I said that Flagg was a low-level Robin (#2 guy) right now. As I said, I think it's a safe bet he's a Batman (alpha leader on a championship contender) by year 3.

As for who our future Robin-role guy is, if we move up in the lottery, it's probably that guy, eventually. If not, it's whoever Presti wizards his way into over the next year or two. The first five years of the Flagg era essentially hinge largely on whether our ping pong balls are picked.

[Smitty]

Front office executives around the NBA increasingly believe Caleb Wilson could be the second player taken in June’s draft, per @KevinOConnor

[Smitty]

Duke Standout Isaiah Evans has declared for The NBA Draft sources tell @JordanRichardSC. Isaiah averaged 15 points this season and shot 38 3FG% in his career at Duke.

[Scott41theMavs]

Front office executives around the NBA increasingly believe Caleb Wilson could be the second player taken in June’s draft, per @KevinOConnor

Damn. Was hoping people would stay stupid in case we get the 4th pick.

[Chicagojk]

Declaring for draft but seems like he could also decide to wind up in college. 7’4 big.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DXcIQIODiU3/?img_index=2&igsh=MWl5YWtoNTd1Mnp3OQ==