Luka Dealt to Lakers: Nico Harrison is a Basketball Terrorist

[numnuts23]

Here are the numbers.
For reference Davis makes $63 million in 2027-28. 

Thanks! 
27-28 is a player option I believe.  He'll be 34 - interesting to see what he does  

So, appears it actually is more short term for AD...lovely

[Jym]

So, LA's ability to go five years with larger raises is meaningless.  I'm not saying Luka isn't likely to stay with LA.  But, it isn't guaranteed and they have almost no advantage over other teams.  That is why they were able to remove the 2031 pick from the deal.

Really would have been such a win-win for everyone involved if we just wanted until he was trade-eligible after signing the supermax (and got an appropriate package for him)

[Jym]

Here are the numbers.
For reference Davis makes $63 million in 2027-28. 

Ok actually twitter is giving these numbers. Cap must have increased more than the outdated numbers I found before  

[F Gump]

Well whatever merit the pro trade argument had just went out the window. This may be the least contentious issue in the history of Mavs talk. Didn’t take long to get a resolution. This is what you get trading for an older, injury prone player. It’s a risk even when you’re sending out a poopoo platter and picks. It’s lunacy when you’re sending out a young player on track to be top 3-5 all time on offense.

I noted early on, and it certainly remains true, that Nico negotiated based on the question marks that went with Luka, when he should have focused on (and made demands based on) the question marks of AD. He did Pelinka's work for him, by being on the same side of the table where both sides are weighing Luka's negatives, rather than taking a pro-Mavs-asset stance that will question the value of what the other side is offering.

Terrible negotiating. Even if AD becomes healthy, the 2031 and Knecht should have been readily available -and extracted - for a player like Luka, and it's the terrible return Nico was willing to take that is a major piece of why Mavs fandom is so upset. Everyone (except maybe stupid Nico) knows Pelinka would have paid that price, if Nico knew how to negotiate.

The deal was
AD-Christie-Knecht-picks (with the MINIMUM being 2029 and 2031)
Luka-Maxi

That doesn't get you below the tax line, but you mess with the payroll in a different deal. It doesn't leave you room for Grimes-Martin, but you can figure that out a different way, or do something else with Grimes. You have to get full value for Luka, with blinders on, and he stupidly did not.

[numnuts23]

If Luka got his 35% max cap deal in the summer, he’d have started 2026 on his new deal. That would’ve put him at an estimated starting salary of 55 mil and a total contract of around 315 million for 5 years. 

Now again, these are estimated numbers, but today the estimated cap numbers for next year is 154,647,000. The luxury tax is 187,895,000, the 1st apron is 195,945,000 and the 2nd apron is 207,824,000

Let’s assume the Mavs will do everything in their power to stay below the 2nd apron, and really the 1st apron as well so they can sign MLE guys, make SnT’s and just be free from restrictive rules. That means they are operating on a hard cap of 195,945,000.

Depending on what Kyrie’s extension is, and again, I’m going to assume a modest pay increase, the teams total salary BEFORE Luka’s supermax deal is at 159,942,426. This is with Kyrie on a deal that starts him at 44 mil. 

Add in Luka’s deal, and the teams salary balloons to 214,068,806. Over the 2nd apron and would have to lose roughly 7 mil to get below it.

But want to know the real sick twist with this? The Mavs are still currently in this position because AD is on a 35% max deal right now. The same exact number Luka would’ve started at next year is what AD is going to be paid. So this team is going to be a 2nd apron team regardless of Luka getting his max deal.

This trade was never about avoiding the tax or anything. It was solely because they did not like Luka.

Nice breakdown...thanks.  

26-27 is year it probably all hits the fan.  PJ/Gaff deal is up, Kyrie likely on a new deal and AD costing $58 million. 

With that in mind, there really isn't a reason not to go all in next season.  I know a potential title would not be near as poetic as Dirk's..nor as sweet without Luka.  However, given the cap situation and no Luka - it seems like a all or nothing year.  

Have Kyrie accept the player option (He'd have to go along with it in order to get KD here...like I assume Nico is planning with old NIKE crew) 

If they could figure out a 3 team deal that allows them to keep PJ, sending out Klay/Gafford/Naji/Powell....you'd have something along the lines of 

Kyrie/Hardy
Max/Martin
KD/PJ
AD/Omax
Lively/Vet FA - combo of AD and Lively when PJ is playing 4 

Then you'd be left in 26-27 with 

Hardy
Max
PJ on new deal
AD/Omax
Lively 

Obviously cap would be in a much better place but team wouldn't be great.

[F Gump]

Here's a question:

Cuban is saying all the right things right now, a little off the radar, and without overtly bashing his new partners too much, but he has found little ways of making it clear he wouldn't have done this. Did he see this coming? Is that one of the reasons he sold?

Think about the news that the Celtics were potentially to be sold coming out like a week after they won the Finals. That was about looking forward to this 2nd apron Hell, realizing they'd have to tear down a championship team, and not wanting to be the most hated men in Boston, if you believe most people's interpretation of that news (though I admit I haven't followed the story much since this season started).

Did Cuban just not want to be the guy who A) traded Luka to avoid giving him the super max or B) couldn't build a decent team around a super max'd Luka due to those 2nd apron problems (or even just a lack of funds in general)?

Serious question.

I don't think Cuban (if still the owner) would have traded Luka, because (a) Luka sells tickets, and (b) Cuban is a major jock-sniffer.

I feel Cuban was not a good GM, so I don't value his feedback. And let's remember that when it came to negotiating, Cuban was one of the worst. Nor do I trust Cuban to be objective - he's taking shots because he thinks he knew it all, and they don't care to hear what he has to say.

[mvossman]

Nice breakdown...thanks.  

26-27 is year it probably all hits the fan.  PJ/Gaff deal is up, Kyrie likely on a new deal and AD costing $58 million. 

With that in mind, there really isn't a reason not to go all in next season.  I know a potential title would not be near as poetic as Dirk's..nor as sweet without Luka.  However, given the cap situation and no Luka - it seems like a all or nothing year.  

Have Kyrie accept the player option (He'd have to go along with it in order to get KD here...like I assume Nico is planning with old NIKE crew) 

If they could figure out a 3 team deal that allows them to keep PJ, sending out Klay/Gafford/Naji/Powell....you'd have something along the lines of 

Kyrie/Hardy
Max/Martin
KD/PJ
AD/Omax
Lively/Vet FA - combo of AD and Lively when PJ is playing 4 

Then you'd be left in 26-27 with 

Hardy
Max
PJ on new deal
AD/Omax
Lively 

Obviously cap would be in a much better place but team wouldn't be great.

This has you going all in on the one year we still have control of our pick, and then lottery team for the foreseeable future when we don't have control of our picks.  You are probably kicking in the 31 and Lakers 29 to make this happen.  That is a one year window that we watched fail at Brooklyn and Pheonix, and then many, many years of pain.

[numnuts23]

This has you going all in on the one year we still have control of our pick, and then lottery team for the foreseeable future when we don't have control of our picks.  You are probably kicking in the 31 and Lakers 29 to make this happen.  That is a one year window that we watched fail at Brooklyn and Pheonix, and then many, many years of pain.

100% agree, but I'm just trying to see what 26-27 would look like with extensions that would be needed and where that would put them 

I'm not sure which is worse...

[KillerLeft]

Yeah assuming Davis is any good still, he'll be making $60+ mil a year himself on that next contract

You don’t hold any hope out that Davis will be amenable to a team friendly extension this summer, similar to what we just saw Kyrie Irving sign?

[F Gump]

This trade was never about avoiding the tax or anything. It was solely because they did not like Luka.

This point needs to be emphasized before we get too deep in the weeds with the numbers. The AD and Luka (on a supermax) salaries are essentially the same, except for 2025-26 season when AD is already getting 35% and Luka is not. It's not a lack of willingness to pay, but rather to pay Luka so much that they would tie their future to him for the next decade.

The Mavs FO did not trust Luka, did not trust his work ethic and commitment to his job, so they didn't want to be "forced" to pay HIM the 35%. They figured based on past history that it was only going to get worse not better. 

(To be fair, there's human nature evidence for that being true. It's what happens with any addict - if I get away with it now, and I'm okay, why should I change? Luka is so talented that he can play great without having to work all out off the court, so why should he change? Why not just enjoy himself off the court, because what's the point?) 

There's also plenty of evidence that the FO had tried to get Luka to change, and he just did what he felt like. We as fans also were frustrated at his lack of progress in certain areas that hampered his ability, and I didn't understand why progress never seemed to happen from year to year.

I am in the minority, but my biggest complaint by far is the return, and the horrendous negotiating in just about every way, but not so much the fact that he was traded. If he was perhaps intractable, at some point you have to move on, and at some point there's going to be that point. I get it.

[hakeemfaan]

I noted early on, and it certainly remains true, that Nico negotiated based on the question marks that went with Luka, when he should have focused on (and made demands based on) the question marks of AD. He did Pelinka's work for him, by being on the same side of the table where both sides are weighing Luka's negatives, rather than taking a pro-Mavs-asset stance that will question the value of what the other side is offering.

Terrible negotiating. Even if AD becomes healthy, the 2031 and Knecht should have been readily available -and extracted - for a player like Luka, and it's the terrible return Nico was willing to take that is a major piece of why Mavs fandom is so upset. Everyone (except maybe stupid Nico) knows Pelinka would have paid that price, if Nico knew how to negotiate.

The deal was
AD-Christie-Knecht-picks (with the MINIMUM being 2029 and 2031)
Luka-Maxi

That doesn't get you below the tax line, but you mess with the payroll in a different deal. It doesn't leave you room for Grimes-Martin, but you can figure that out a different way, or do something else with Grimes. You have to get full value for Luka, with blinders on, and he stupidly did not.

All this assumes Nico was negotiating in good faith and doing his fiduciary duty to the Mavs. I was never into conspiracy theories but Nico having strong ties to Pelinka’s, Klutch and saying he felt comfortable with Pelinka to keep a secret and acting like Luka was a deprecated asset while AD who was older, had an injury history, and is a lesser player than Luka right now, was highly coveted…it doesn’t make any sense.  The other explanation is Nico wanted to prove a point to Luka so bad that he let his emotions override common sense. 

I don’t believe for a second that Nico is stupid or dumb.  That’s why this whole thing is so puzzling.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I don't think Cuban (if still the owner) would have traded Luka, because (a) Luka sells tickets, and (b) Cuban is a major jock-sniffer.

I feel Cuban was not a good GM, so I don't value his feedback. And let's remember that when it came to negotiating, Cuban was one of the worst. Nor do I trust Cuban to be objective - he's taking shots because he thinks he knew it all, and they don't care to hear what he has to say.

F Gump, you're shuttin it down. Your last three posts were pure fire.

[Berknip]

I noted early on, and it certainly remains true, that Nico negotiated based on the question marks that went with Luka, when he should have focused on (and made demands based on) the question marks of AD. He did Pelinka's work for him, by being on the same side of the table where both sides are weighing Luka's negatives, rather than taking a pro-Mavs-asset stance that will question the value of what the other side is offering.

Terrible negotiating. Even if AD becomes healthy, the 2031 and Knecht should have been readily available -and extracted - for a player like Luka, and it's the terrible return Nico was willing to take that is a major piece of why Mavs fandom is so upset. Everyone (except maybe stupid Nico) knows Pelinka would have paid that price, if Nico knew how to negotiate.

The deal was
AD-Christie-Knecht-picks (with the MINIMUM being 2029 and 2031)
Luka-Maxi

That doesn't get you below the tax line, but you mess with the payroll in a different deal. It doesn't leave you room for Grimes-Martin, but you can figure that out a different way, or do something else with Grimes. You have to get full value for Luka, with blinders on, and he stupidly did not.

This is 100% where I land and the source of my ire. SPOT-FREAKING-ON.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

What is clear is that Doncic will have a say. And it wasn't lost on James' camp, sources said, that Pelinka prioritized Doncic's involvement upon his arrival and immediately engaged in the Williams trade that he'd asked for, when James had for years wanted the team to trade its picks to improve its roster.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I don't think Cuban (if still the owner) would have traded Luka, because (a) Luka sells tickets, and (b) Cuban is a major jock-sniffer.

If the GIFs bother people, let me know, and I'll stop.

[SleepingHero]

If the GIFs bother people, let me know, and I'll stop.

GIFs will never be a problem as long as I’m around .

They’re my favorite.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think Cuban (if still the owner) would have traded Luka, because (a) Luka sells tickets, and (b) Cuban is a major jock-sniffer.

I feel Cuban was not a good GM, so I don't value his feedback. And let's remember that when it came to negotiating, Cuban was one of the worst. Nor do I trust Cuban to be objective - he's taking shots because he thinks he knew it all, and they don't care to hear what he has to say.

Yeah, I totally agree with all this. 

Just reminded today that he had gotten pretty cheap over the last decade, and I'm wondering if the idea of super maxing Luka and then being forced to pay through the nose to field a competitive team around him afterwards was something he saw coming and didn't want any part of (or possibly even couldn't afford to do, no regardless of whether he wanted to). Wondering if that was an even bigger part of his motivation to sell than we originally realized - to avoid becoming the villain.

I probably didn't word the first post clearly enough. I totally, 100% agree that he sucked and the new owners GM probably couldn't start ignoring him fast enough.

[KillerLeft]

But, I also wonder if there's a chance AD's '27-'28 salary ends up being less than the 35% it's projected to be right now. I think (hope) they can extend him at a more team friendly rate this summer, with the idea being that he wants to lock in a longer deal. Might be wishful thinking on my part.

Forgive me if this incorrect info, but I read that he was eligible for extension this summer, which I assume means he'd have to opt out in advance on that 27-28 year, and the new extension would kick in for THAT season. Someone please correct me if this is wrong.

Even if this is 100% wrong, then I totally agree that Harrison would rather pay Davis that 35% of the cap than Doncic. That much is crystal clear.

[Jym]

You don’t hold any hope out that Davis will be amenable to a team friendly extension this summer, similar to what we just saw Kyrie Irving sign?

I don't 
And I don't think Kyrie will do that again this summer

[KillerLeft]

I don't 
And I don't think Kyrie will do that again this summer

Interesting. Why not with Kyrie? 

You don't think he'll be as willing to make room for AD as he was with Luka? You might be right about that, but, idk...I can kind of imagine he'll like playing with AD much MORE, honestly. I obviously have no idea whether or not that's true, it just wouldn't surprise me. Not sure what's changed in terms of Kyrie's desire to help the FO put a competitive roster together. I get why FANS might feel that's hopeless, but I doubt Kyrie feels that way. To him, a top 10 guy went out and another one came in. He might even be thrilled at the idea of touching the ball more, nay?