FA: Mavs Extend Hardy! | 3yrs/18mil

[ballsrchr]

I hope you and the others are proven right. I'm unable to get there because I keep failing to see signs that he is progressing in areas that he badly needs to improve.

Hey...that's fine.  I hope we are proven right as well.  Differences of opinions and analyzing the results are how we all learn things.  I really like the things you post.  Keep it up!

[Knutsen]

I‘m right in the middle of your opinions about Hardy for 3 years and 18 million being a good or bad deal.

Why?

I‘m pretty sure it‘s a deal Hardy can easily outperform - but I‘m not sure the Mavs in win-now-mode and with their top 2 players being far better on offense than on defense are the right team to allow him to do so.

Can you see where I‘m coming from?

[SkenfromLMF]

I‘m right in the middle of your opinions about Hardy for 3 years and 18 million being a good or bad deal.

Why?

I‘m pretty sure it‘s a deal Hardy can easily outperform - but I‘m not sure the Mavs in win-now-mode and with their top 2 players being far better on offense than on defense are the right team to allow him to do so.

Can you see where I‘m coming from?

Yeah, this is where I come down as well. It isn't a gross overpay and yet I am not sure I like Hardy to outperform the contract on THIS squad. Of course, another injury to the backcourt starts to slant the data toward this potentially being a VERY good signing.
As long as Kyrie is around, this is a deal that we hope turns into positive value for trade.

[KillerLeft]

I totally agree with the notion that neither Hardy's off-ball shooting or ability to impact the game on the defensive end are good enough, currently, and that at least one of those areas must improve for him to be a viable rotation player on a good team.

I think where I differ from some on him, and always have, is that his on-ball game, particularly in the midrange, is about 2-3 years more advanced in terms of being polished and full of counters than most players his age (according to my opinion, at least). That, by itself, isn't a reason to assume he's going to "make it," but I totally get why NBA players talked about him as a prospect with as much respect as they did, initially, and I feel it earns him the best shot possible at finding a niche (which, again, isn't a guaranteed success story). He's the third best 1-on-1 player on the team, and that's just because his team has Luka and Kyrie. On many teams he'd be 2nd. Yes, he absolutely needs to find another way to contribute to find a toehold on a role, but that initial elite skill is often what affords young players enough chances to learn, grow and stick.

I'm still hopeful about Hardy's future, and was really worried they were about to give up on him. This deal seems (to me) like both sides wanted to extend the orientation period a bit without it hurting too much, and I think that's wise. More wise than what I expected from a Klutch client, frankly.

[The Jom]

I only know it can’t possibly be a horrible deal. We’ve seen what those look like. JaVale most recently. Certainly it aligns all interests for the kid to break out now. Fingers crossed he does.

[michaeltex]

Guys, $6M is going to almost be a rounding error in a few years.

Putting on my, very amateur, salary cap propellor beanie...

In round numbers, the cap is at $141M this season, but is expected to increase at about 10% annually through the end of the decade, which means it will be at ~$171M in two years and ~$206M two years after that.

And that's just the salary cap, in two years the 1st apron moves up to ~$215M and the second up to ~$228M.

I don't think MBT is sweating whether Hardy's getting overpaid in his extension.

Based my calculations on a Forbes article from last summer. Interesting how the cap growth will devalue even supermax contracts over time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantopore...tructures/

[The Jom]

Guys, $6M is going to almost be a rounding error in a few years.

Putting on my, very amateur, salary cap propellor beanie...

In round numbers, the cap is at $141M this season, but is expected to increase at about 10% annually through the end of the decade, which means it will be at ~$171M in two years and ~$206M two years after that.

And that's just the salary cap, in two years the 1st apron moves up to ~$215M and the second up to ~$228M.

I don't think MBT is sweating whether Hardy's getting overpaid in his extension.

Based my calculations on a Forbes article from last summer. Interesting how the cap growth will devalue even supermax contracts over time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantopore...tructures/

Yep. Michael Jordan got paid peanuts.

[F Gump]

Guys, $6M is going to almost be a rounding error in a few years.

Putting on my, very amateur, salary cap propellor beanie...

In round numbers, the cap is at $141M this season, but is expected to increase at about 10% annually through the end of the decade, which means it will be at ~$171M in two years and ~$206M two years after that.

And that's just the salary cap, in two years the 1st apron moves up to ~$215M and the second up to ~$228M.

I don't think MBT is sweating whether Hardy's getting overpaid in his extension.

Based my calculations on a Forbes article from last summer. Interesting how the cap growth will devalue even supermax contracts over time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantopore...tructures/

I've heard this claim made on all kinds of questionable deals, and respectfully, I think it's erroneous.

The Mavs will NOT be bestowed with spending room that will make overpays irrelevant. Instead, the looming increase in cap will be eaten up by increases in all contracts. The cap crunch of hard caps will be there. Every max and MLE contract will rise with the cap. Every overpay will hurt. 

I accept the idea this is perhaps calculated risk-reward, with the possible reward being the TO year. But I don't buy that there will be so much cap room it won't matter. 

The 1st year of this deal will be one in which Mavs must negotiates MANY new deals. They all want more money. What is done at the edge will matterr. Imo.

[DallasMaverick]

I've heard this claim made on all kinds of questionable deals, and respectfully, I think it's erroneous.

The Mavs will NOT be bestowed with spending room that will make overpays irrelevant. Instead, the looming increase in cap will be eaten up by increases in all contracts. The cap crunch of hard caps will be there. Every max and MLE contract will rise with the cap. Every overpay will hurt. 

I accept the idea this is perhaps calculated risk-reward, with the possible reward being the TO year. But I don't buy that there will be so much cap room it won't matter. 

The 1st year of this deal will be one in which Mavs must negotiates MANY new deals. They all want more money. What is done at the edge will matterr. Imo.

Yes. 

It’s been fascinating to watch the overreaction, on both sides, to Javale’s $6m contract. And Dwight Powell’s $4m contract.

On the one hand, they’re minor contracts. Not even MLE.

On the other hand, every million can really hurt when you’re trying to figure out how to pay that one remaining free agent you wish to sign.

[Scott41theMavs]

Yes. 

It’s been fascinating to watch the overreaction, on both sides, to Javale’s $6m contract. And Dwight Powell’s $4m contract.

On the one hand, they’re minor contracts. Not even MLE.

On the other hand, every million can really hurt when you’re trying to figure out how to pay that one remaining free agent you wish to sign.

I failed to observe one single overreaction to the McGee contract, so I must have missed something. Of course, on the other hand, the reason that's the case is that I believe it was existentially impossible to overreact to how abominable that contract was.

[Jym]

I failed to observe one single overreaction to the McGee contract, so I must have missed something. Of course, on the other hand, the reason that's the case is that I believe it was existentially impossible to overreact to how abominable that contract was.

If anything we underreacted

[KillerLeft]

I failed to observe one single overreaction to the McGee contract, so I must have missed something. Of course, on the other hand, the reason that's the case is that I believe it was existentially impossible to overreact to how abominable that contract was.

There were no overreactions to how bad that contract was, given that he spent most of his one year here completely out of the rotation and then they freaking STRETCH-WAIVED it the very next summer. It doesn't get much worse than that, but kudos to them for admitting it.

[LukaMVP]

6m/yr for hardy is a bargain, that's only about half the price for josh green.

[ThisIStheYear]

This contract is like a robbery. I feel bad for Hardy. But he’ll develop and get a bag with the next one. He’ll still be a young man.

[Scott41theMavs]

6m/yr for hardy is a bargain, that's only about half the price for josh green.

For one night at least, it looks like the Mavs got a steal. If he can build on tonight's performance, great things to look forward to.

[OBX Maverick]

For one night at least, it looks like the Mavs got a steal. If he can build on tonight's performance, great things to look forward to.

And guess who’s already injured again….Josh Green DNP last with an achilles injury he suffered in preseason.  I always was partial to JG, but i don’t miss the injuries….

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Hardy had a couple passes tonight I didn’t think he had in his skill set.

[F Gump]

In the 1st half, Hardy imo had the best game he's played as a Mav. He hustled, played within team ball, and defended vigorously, and he played well WITHOUT the ball -- all of the bullet points he's been missing. In the 4th quarter we mostly saw the Hardy I've come to hate - featuring shot-hunting, and no D - but for a half this is the first time he has played for a stretch where he's seemed to get it.

Overall that makes me more positive. If you do it once, you can do it again, and build on that.

[Knutsen]

In the 1st half, Hardy imo had the best game he's played as a Mav. He hustled, played within team ball, and defended vigorously, and he played well WITHOUT the ball -- all of the bullet points he's been missing. In the 4th quarter we mostly saw the Hardy I've come to hate - featuring shot-hunting, and no D - but for a half  this is the first time he has played for a stretch where he's seemed to get it.

Overall that makes me more positive. If you do it once, you can do it again, and build on that.

100% - I really liked his aggressiveness on defense, let’s hope he keeps building on that. Was expecting this performance from Grimes, but Hardy delivered it!

[YaBoyAplus]

In no shape or form could 6mill be an overpayment for your back-up PG who actually contributes with the ability to go for 15+ ppg on any given night. His play making and decision making has improved tremendously. Great signing