FA: Mavs Extend Hardy! | 3yrs/18mil

[SleepingHero]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
Dallas Mavericks guard Jaden Hardy has agreed to a three-year, $18 million rookie contract extension, sources tell ESPN. Hardy, 22, has averaged 7.9 points during his two seasons in Dallas.

[SleepingHero]

I think this is a relative steal for Hardy. Am I crazy that I think the Mavs made out like bandits?? He'll be making around 5mil next season. If he takes a step this season or the next the Mavs could've locked up their 6th man for 1/3rd of what most rotation role players are getting paid today.

The last year of his deal is a team option too.

[SleepingHero]

Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon)
The final season of Jaden Hardy’s three-year, $18M extension is a team option, sources told ESPN.

[Jym]

when can we extend Nico?

[F Gump]

This is not a bargain, based on Hardy's track record to date. He's still a 3rd stringer. He was mediocre as a rookie and his shooting numbers regressed last year (he also was used fewer mpg in yr 2 than as a rookie, which is informative). He is allergic to playing defense. He has a few good moments that are offset by a whole lot of mediocre ones. 

Those are the sort of things that get you somewhere between minimum and twice that amount.

The contract tells the truth. Both sides saw it as a bit of an overpay, which the Mavs were willing to offer in exchange for an agreement by Hardy to have a TO (because an overpay to some degree is how a TO gets done). But it also tells us that neither the Mavs nor JH must see some sort of breakout about to happen, and if that's the case, why are they wasting 5.5-6M a year on a player who isn't good enough to get into the rotation?.

[Mavs2021]

This is not a bargain, based on Hardy's track record to date. He's still a 3rd stringer. He was mediocre as a rookie and his shooting numbers regressed last year (he also was used fewer mpg in yr 2 than as a rookie, which is informative). He is allergic to playing defense. He has a few good moments that are offset by a whole lot of mediocre ones. 

Those are the sort of things that get you somewhere between minimum and twice that amount.

The contract tells the truth. Both sides saw it as a bit of an overpay, which the Mavs were willing to offer in exchange for an agreement by Hardy to have a TO (because an overpay to some degree is how a TO gets done). But it also tells us that neither the Mavs nor JH must see some sort of breakout about to happen, and if that's the case, why are they wasting 5.5-6M a year on a player who isn't good enough to get into the rotation?.

It´s amazing how great you are with the CBA, but how poorly you can translate it to the value of players and forward projections.

Here is a fun fact for you.

Year 2:

14 MPG
5.6 PPG
4.0 RPG
1.2 APG
49/29/63 shooting

Signed a 150/5 extension after year 3.

Hardy just completed year 2. He´s clearly the 4th guard with Exum out, maybe even the 3rd guard in the rotation given how awful Dinwiddie has looked and will see minutes accordingly. Furthermore we all know Luka and Kyrie will miss games. More minutes will likely translate to THJ numbers for Hardy. THJ earned 17M a year, which he signed against a much lower salary cap. 6M is a massive steal. It´s impossible for Hardy to underperform it, but in two months it could easily be one of the biggest value contracts in the league. It´s a great trade chip, too.

[DL2RimRocker]

Whether it a good deal or not remains to be seen but it is a contract that should be relatively easy to move.
Even if he doesnt crack the rotation he is playing behind two superstar PGs and two vets so he'll have value based on potential alone throughout most of the contract.

I like the deal for both sides.

[JamesConway912]

Very small contract, plenty rookie scale deals will be in that range financially over the next years. I can’t say I’m overly euphoric about Hardy as a prospect but it’s hard to complain value-wise. Hardy is still only 22, even if things don’t work out here he’ll get a few more chances elsewhere I’d imagine.

The extension should provide very limited downside but if he pans out they would have a rotation guy locked up for essentially four more years. Smart move Imo.

It’s a bit unfortunate that they weren’t able to get a deal for Grimes. Timing-wise (coming off a rough season with of injuries) that might have been a decent chance to lock him up to a team-friendly longterm deal but it wasn’t in the cards. Hopefully they’ll be able to use his RFA status next summer to their advantage.

[mvossman]

It´s amazing how great you are with the CBA, but how poorly you can translate it to the value of players and forward projections.

Here is a fun fact for you.

Year 2:

14 MPG
5.6 PPG
4.0 RPG
1.2 APG
49/29/63 shooting

Signed a 150/5 extension after year 3.

Hardy just completed year 2. He´s clearly the 4th guard with Exum out, maybe even the 3rd guard in the rotation given how awful Dinwiddie has looked and will see minutes accordingly. Furthermore we all know Luka and Kyrie will miss games. More minutes will likely translate to THJ numbers for Hardy. THJ earned 17M a year, which he signed against a much lower salary cap. 6M is a massive steal. It´s impossible for Hardy to underperform it, but in two months it could easily be one of the biggest value contracts in the league. It´s a great trade chip, too.

I'm not sure you should be throwing shade at other posters while continually comparing Hardy to better players.  When it comes to player future projections, you seem to be the board optimist and Forrest is the pessimist.  

I like the deal, especially with the team option, but it is possible for him to underperform it.  If he continues to regress shooting, give up too many turnovers and play bad defense he could be a near unplayable negative on the court.  I don't think that is going to happen, but it could.  We have seen teams pay assets to get out from under contracts smaller than this with the new harsher CBA.

[mvossman]

This is not a bargain, based on Hardy's track record to date. He's still a 3rd stringer. He was mediocre as a rookie and his shooting numbers regressed last year (he also was used fewer mpg in yr 2 than as a rookie, which is informative). He is allergic to playing defense. He has a few good moments that are offset by a whole lot of mediocre ones. 

Those are the sort of things that get you somewhere between minimum and twice that amount.

The contract tells the truth. Both sides saw it as a bit of an overpay, which the Mavs were willing to offer in exchange for an agreement by Hardy to have a TO (because an overpay to some degree is how a TO gets done). But it also tells us that neither the Mavs nor JH must see some sort of breakout about to happen, and if that's the case, why are they wasting 5.5-6M a year on a player who isn't good enough to get into the rotation?.

This is an interesting take.  They agreed on a reasonable deal so neither side thinks he has huge upside so what was the point of signing him to begin with?  Are you happy with any signing they make?  It seems like you only want to pay guys in their early 20s for what they have done.  I'm curious where you came down on the Brunson extension discussion a year before he walked.

[Mavs2021]

I'm not sure you should be throwing shade at other posters while continually comparing Hardy to better players.  When it comes to player future projections, you seem to be the board optimist and Forrest is the pessimist.  

I like the deal, especially with the team option, but it is possible for him to underperform it.  If he continues to regress shooting, give up too many turnovers and play bad defense he could be a near unplayable negative on the court.  I don't think that is going to happen, but it could.  We have seen teams pay assets to get out from under contracts smaller than this with the new harsher CBA.

I was on the Jalen Johnson train before it had wheels, but the facts that he regressed from Year 1 to Year 2 as Forrest likes to point out, though the sample size for either player is ridiculously small anyway. It´s much easier (at age 22) to turn from a $6M into a $30M player with opportunity than a negative trade value. Hardy will get his opportunity this season.

Interestingly basketball reference has a 2024/2025 projection tool.

For Hardy assuming 24 MPG (which is slightly less than THJ) he comes out at 13.3 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.6 APG shooting 43/38/80. I´d say that is pretty fair considering his production so far and the fact that his minutes should increase.

This is not a Javale McGee situation.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

What a sweetheart deal for the Mavs. For Hardy, he has his bag and opportunity to outperform the contract.

[F Gump]

I'm curious where you came down on the Brunson extension discussion a year before he walked.

The summer before, I thought he would be available but it would take most or all of the MLE to sign JB.

I based that number on good regular seasons and progress as an NBA playmaker but questions about his playoff potential, especially whether he could be a long-term fit next to Luka, and what number would leave him as a trade asset if he didn't improve. Once the season started and he showed a bit more, I was hoping for them to lock him up asap. I would assume that the Mavs, seeing more behind the scenes than we get to see, would have had enough data to know to lock him up while MLE deal was still available.

From the Mavs POV, I think they were wanting to keep him as a trade chip to use that season, and small salary would add to the value, perhaps. Ultimately he proved too valuable to trade.

If you think I am unrealistic with how I look at these things, that's fine, but fwiw I pretty much nailed the Green number at or below the MLE (at a time when the discussions here were seeing 17M/yr and 20M/yr and some even higher) based on the same issues I see with Hardy -- which is, you shouldn't assume that signing a player is going to make him develop on a much better trajectory than he's already showing. There's a clamor to pay him based on what we hope we will be, not on what he is, and I think that's bad negotiating.

I have slightly more positivity about Hardy's chance to grow than I did with JG, based solely on the fact JG had 3 years and JH has only had 2. But neither showed any real progress in the year immediately prior to the signing, which is concerning.

[ballsrchr]

I'm also in the "this is a steal" club for Hardy. I think he'll make a lot of improvement and impact this year. I'm gonna hide and watch...

[mvossman]

The summer before, I thought he would be available but it would take most or all of the MLE to sign JB.

I based that number on good regular seasons and progress as an NBA playmaker but questions about his playoff potential, especially whether he could be a long-term fit next to Luka, and what number would leave him as a trade asset if he didn't improve. Once the season started and he showed a bit more, I was hoping for them to lock him up asap. I would assume that the Mavs, seeing more behind the scenes than we get to see, would have had enough data to know to lock him up while MLE deal was still available.

From the Mavs POV, I think they were wanting to keep him as a trade chip to use that season, and small salary would add to the value, perhaps. Ultimately he proved too valuable to trade.

If you think I am unrealistic with how I look at these things, that's fine, but fwiw I pretty much nailed the Green number at or below the MLE (at a time when the discussions here were seeing 17M/yr and 20M/yr and some even higher) based on the same issues I see with Hardy -- which is, you shouldn't assume that signing a player is going to make him develop on a much better trajectory than he's already showing. There's a clamor to pay him based on what we hope we will be, not on what he is, and I think that's bad negotiating.

I have slightly more positivity about Hardy's chance to grow than I did with JG, based solely on the fact JG had 3 years and JH has only had 2. But neither showed any real progress in the year immediately prior to the signing, which is concerning.

My recollection on Josh Green is that there was a group of folks that had some crazy high numbers, there was a group of folks that liked him around MLE (including me) and I though your take was that he was not worth the MLE.  Maybe I am remembering this wrong, but I thought you were one of the few folks that did not like that extension?

I don't think you are unrealistic, just pessimistic, especially when it comes to young players.

[F Gump]

I'm also in the "this is a steal" club for Hardy.  I think he'll make a lot of improvement and impact this year.  I'm gonna hide and watch...

I hope you and the others are proven right. I'm unable to get there because I keep failing to see signs that he is progressing in areas that he badly needs to improve.

[omahen]

I am fine with the deal. Hardy is young and Mavs get two or three more seasons to watch his development as well as a smaller sized contract that could come handy if Mavs will want to make a trade at TDL or later.

As for Hardy as a player. One-dimensional not terribly efficient scorers with bad defense have low value in the league currently. He needs to either become an elite shooter or drastically improve on defense or he will be a vet min guy at best in the long run. Role for scorers with iffy defense is reserved for stars who can really score or in some cases for 6th man types. Rest of the guys need to play good defense to support the stars.

[mvossman]

I was on the Jalen Johnson train before it had wheels, but the facts that he regressed from Year 1 to Year 2 as Forrest likes to point out, though the sample size for either player is ridiculously small anyway. It´s much easier (at age 22) to turn from a $6M into a $30M player with opportunity than a negative trade value. Hardy will get his opportunity this season.

Interestingly basketball reference has a 2024/2025 projection tool.

For Hardy assuming 24 MPG (which is slightly less than THJ) he comes out at 13.3 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.6 APG shooting 43/38/80. I´d say that is pretty fair considering his production so far and the fact that his minutes should increase.

This is not a Javale McGee situation.

I think you are underestimating how rare it is for 22 year old second round pick to turn into 30M player.  My guess is 6M players are more likely to flame out than hit that mark.

I'm not sure why we are assuming 24 MPG for Hardy?  Timmy's primary replacement is going to be Klay.  Even with Exum out minutes are going to be tight, and there will be a premium on defense coming off the bench, which does not play in his favor.

Not surprising you use an extreme example (straw man) to make your point.  I hated that signing (like everyone else) while liking this one.  Does not mean this one is guaranteed to pan out.

[F Gump]

My recollection on Josh Green is that there was a group of folks that had some crazy high numbers, there was a group of folks that liked him around MLE (including me) and I though your take was that he was not worth the MLE.  Maybe I am remembering this wrong, but I thought you were one of the few folks that did not like that extension?

I don't think you are unrealistic, just pessimistic, especially when it comes to young players.

My belief was that I was on an island in a conservative value for JG. Perhaps not, I guess. One man's pessimism is another's realism.

In relation to the clamor here, I was certainly glad to see JG signed where he was (starting salary a sliver below the 12.822M MLE, vs 17M or 20M or whatever). I thought he would land not far from the MLE (a bit higher or lower, but not by much either way) and thought his value at 90%-100% of the MLE (11.5-13.0) with hopes for the smaller end of that range. So I saw his 12.65 as a modest overpay, but "okay" and a better alternative than no deal at all. In hindsight, I think he did turn out to be a slight overpay, because he still didn't get any better in the areas he needed to get better. And I think he was a trade filler (neutral value) more than a trade asset, in the KT deal.

I'm still about where I was on JG. He's a good athlete and runs fast, but his defense isn't good enough to offset his aversion to scoring. His good attitude and hustle, without any pressure to win, should make him a good fit in CHA.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I think you are underestimating how rare it is for 22 year old second round pick to turn into 30M player.  My guess is 6M players are more likely to flame out than hit that mark.

I'm not sure why we are assuming 24 MPG for Hardy?  Timmy's primary replacement is going to be Klay.  Even with Exum out minutes are going to be tight, and there will be a premium on defense coming off the bench, which does not play in his favor.

Not surprising you use an extreme example (straw man) to make your point.  I hated that signing (like everyone else) while liking this one.  Does not mean this one is guaranteed to pan out.

IMO for Hardy to be successful this year, his total minutes need to be at least 1,200 (20mins 60 games).