(02-06-2023, 12:44 AM)The Jom Wrote: [ -> ]Hafta think Cubes will stretch waive Bertans now to get under the tax line THIS year.
Early, but good thinking for the possible road ahead
1 S-W can't be done for 2022-23 season (and it wouldn't be nearly enough anyhow -- they are ~24M over the tax line now)
2 Can be done in summer for 2023-24 season, but assuming they re-sign Kyrie, it still won't be nearly enough to get them under the tax line (and if they don't, they will be under tax line already)
3 But assuming they re-sign Kyrie, Cuban does save a lot by doing it
(02-06-2023, 12:58 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Wait, what? You comment on what I say. But you don't want me to comment back? C'mon man.
I don't even get it.
And it's not like I'm saying something here that isn't what you are saying bluntly -- you derided SD almost daily, and now you say "SD and DFS were two of the Mavs most desirable players."
I find it funny, don't you?!
This is what a meltdown looks like.
Luka and Kyrie are going to be unstoppable. I think our defense can hold opponents to under 150 points per game. So we should now win 70%+ of our games going forward.
How are teams going to double and triple Luka now? Luka might start averaging 80 points a game.
or Kyrie might average 50.
(02-06-2023, 12:50 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]What does a stretch waive do to the final year of his deal?
He’s got 2 years after this at 17 million and then 5 million (plus non-guaranteed money that doesn’t matter). I believe that means 22 million (17 + 5) gets stretched out over twice as many years +1 (2 x 2 + 1 = 5), making the cap hit 4.4 million (22/5 = 4.4) per year for the next 5.
(02-06-2023, 01:05 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Early, but good thinking for the possible road ahead
1 S-W can't be done for 2022-23 season (and it wouldn't be nearly enough anyhow -- they are ~24M over the tax line now)
2 Can be done in summer for 2023-24 season, but assuming they re-sign Kyrie, it still won't be nearly enough to get them under the tax line (and if they don't, they will be under tax line already)
3 But assuming they re-sign Kyrie, Cuban does save a lot by doing it
Who cares if Cuban has to pay a lot in taxes? After the mediocrity he has put fans through with his penny pinching, I hope he has to pay $300M+ a year in taxes in perpetuity.
Say what you want about how terrible a football GM Jerry Jones is, but if Jerry could buy every all-pro in the league and have to pay $500M in taxes every year he would. He actually likes to win, unlike Cuban, who would prefer to shill NFTs or whatever they next cool scamalicious technological gadget is.
(02-06-2023, 01:05 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Early, but good thinking for the possible road ahead
1 S-W can't be done for 2022-23 season (and it wouldn't be nearly enough anyhow -- they are ~24M over the tax line now)
2 Can be done in summer for 2023-24 season, but assuming they re-sign Kyrie, it still won't be nearly enough to get them under the tax line (and if they don't, they will be under tax line already)
3 But assuming they re-sign Kyrie, Cuban does save a lot by doing it
Hm, I thought waiving him (which can be done any time) would take his $ off the tax calculations. I guess that must be wrong?
(02-06-2023, 01:10 AM)The Jom Wrote: [ -> ]He’s got 2 years after this at 17 million and then 5 million (plus non-guaranteed money that doesn’t matter). I believe that means 22 million (17 + 5) gets stretched out over twice as many years +1 (2 x 2 + 1 = 5), making the cap hit 4.4 million (22/5 = 4.4) per year for the next 5.
I thought the stretch waive was just for a straight 3 years.
(02-06-2023, 01:10 AM)The Jom Wrote: [ -> ]He’s got 2 years after this at 17 million and then 5 million (plus non-guaranteed money that doesn’t matter). I believe that means 22 million (17 + 5) gets stretched out over twice as many years +1 (2 x 2 + 1 = 5), making the cap hit 4.4 million (22/5 = 4.4) per year for the next 5.
I guess I was more curious if a stretch waive fully guarantees the final year.
Also, I'm going to need @"Kammrath" and @"F Gump" to get along. Don't make me kick your asses.
Would a buyout change things and can we do that now?
I would think McGee is the more likely stretch waive candidate than Bertans
(02-06-2023, 01:17 AM)sterlingmallory Wrote: [ -> ]I would think McGee is the more likely stretch waive candidate than Bertans
Did McGee refuse to actually make an effort this year?
(02-06-2023, 12:17 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I changed it. That was a total mistype in the moment, I started saying Stein said (such and such) and then switched it to what I think it means.
I THINK it is a "likely" outcome that Kyrie is not in DAL longterm. Stein did not say that, he said it was a potential reality and MacMahon is saying the same thing with max caproom this summer being the fall back.
Fair enough. Thanks for the clarification!
I do think you are reading "worst case scenario" into "likely scenario" because of your personal pov on the way Mavs do things. But heck,
that's not unreasonable at all in view of Cuban's history.
You know I don't think Cuban is all that smart when it comes to roster-building and the kinds of things involved in the Kyrie move -- evaluation of what he and the other assets are worth, determining what is needed to build out the roster, and negotiations (trade and contract, both of which are vital to the outcome here). I see lots of ways this can go in the ditch. But I am not as pessimistic on whether they can get a contract as you -- my wariness is about how they build out the roster, whether they have a good read on what they get with Kyrie WHEN they pay him 200M, and whether Cuban is able and willing to pay the freight going forward for a roster deeply buried in tax bills. I think they are 1000% all-in, and whatever you might hear to the contrary will be just noise.
Should the Mavs choose to offer Kyrie a contract, and make no mistake that is everyone's goal, I think they'll just offer him the full max. Being creative with the contract language, years or dollar amounts is just going to start you down the same road that the Nets found themselves in.
(02-06-2023, 01:02 AM)BoredAssistant Wrote: [ -> ]I hear you but after TC and JB walking I will have a hard time believing he's signing (admitting I didn't care for Nash or Jet but not hating lol). .
That's fair.
What I am seeing is them paying a huge price in assets, KNOWING just about exactly what it will cost to keep Kyrie. They didn't get rid of the crap contracts, gave up very good players, and gave up a valuable pick. But if they don't write the check, it's all for just 2 months? I just don't see it.
To me, this is another KP-like swing. The Mavs knew the cost in that case as well. Back then, there were similar "what if he walks" questions, and "will the Mavs really offer him a max deal" and so on. And there was also consternation over giving up an unprotected pick (!) and another one on top!
But the contract was no biggie at all, when it came down to it. (Nor was the pick. After all the hand-wring, it ended up being a pick in the 20s iirc.)
KP big swing didn't work for other reasons, of course. (It was because KP mostly was NOT the player he was cracked up to be, plus the injuries. He had skills, to be sure, but a center who likes to play and shoot 30 feet from the basket creates a ton of issues, and the Mavs couldn't solve the puzzle.)
Hopefully this one works out better.
(02-06-2023, 01:27 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Should the Mavs choose to offer Kyrie a contract, and make no mistake that is everyone's goal, I think they'll just offer him the full max. Being creative with the contract language is just going to start you down the same road that the Nets found themselves in.
certainly KP'd ourselves. Only option now is to give him the full 200 million and see what happens
(02-06-2023, 01:35 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]That's fair.
What I am seeing is them paying a huge price in assets, KNOWING just about exactly what it will cost to keep Kyrie. They didn't get rid of the crap contracts, gave up very good players, and gave up a valuable pick. But if they don't write the check, it's all for just 2 months? I just don't see it.
To me, this is another KP-like swing. The Mavs knew the cost in that case as well. Back then, there were similar "what if he walks" questions, and "will the Mavs really offer him a max deal" and so on. And there was also consternation over giving up an unprotected pick (!) and another one on top!
But the contract was no biggie at all, when it came down to it. (Nor was the pick. After all the hand-wring, it ended up being a pick in the 20s iirc.)
KP big swing didn't work for other reasons, of course. (It was because KP mostly was NOT the player he was cracked up to be, plus the injuries. He had skills, to be sure, but a center who likes to play and shoot 30 feet from the basket creates a ton of issues, and the Mavs couldn't solve the puzzle.)
Hopefully this one works out better.
I remember everyone sweating if KP would sign or not and like you said, he did. I can't imagine the Kyrie situation will be much different. He wants his money and we are in the cat bird seat. The fit is also better. Kyrie is in a different league of talent and ability than KP and he's played off ball willingly and successfully with the likes of LeBron and Harden.
I'm wouldn't worry much about Kyrie this year when he signs his deal, I wouldn't worry about him the first year. Beyond that, there is cause for concern is valid. Dude has never been able to keep his basketball Zen.
(02-06-2023, 12:30 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]That, to me, is a matter of when, not if. We have 6 straight years of evidence, each one worse than the previous one, until this season, a contract year.
I DO think he'll ball out down the stretch this season. There's very little doubt in my mind that this will energize the team, short-term. People are going to pay attention to them again for a while, that's for sure. It's probably going to help Luka's MVP campaign, for those who care, just out of the sheer increase in attention the team gets.
I don't think the season will be as successful as last year, ultimately, because these trade deadline deals usually don't get until the following season. But, he's talented enough to make me say it's much more possible they get deep into the playoffs than it was yesterday.
However, if there's a single thought about Irving being "misunderstood" and possibly not causing problems here (or anywhere else) during his next deal, that's just willful ignorance. I took a deep dive on this guy a couple of times over the past year or so, and he has been THE reason all of those situations blew up. Trust me when I say that the happiest team in the NBA tonight is the Brooklyn Nets. As long as KD is willing to give it all another try (not a given, I suppose) their hellish nightmare might finally be over.
I think a perfect way to play this, from here, might be to ride the "contract year" stretch run wave from Irving and then sign-and-trade him. You'll take an asset loss, for sure, but the franchise can keep flowing FORWARD that way.
But, I think @"F Gump" has the right of it. I said this the other day, actually, and stand by it: They decided they were ready to bite the bullet and pay the dude BEFORE making this offer, and probably have some type of assurance, at least a superficial, flimsy one, that he's amenable to signing. I think, as Gump has said, that they see him as Luka's costar and are "all in" on him. That certainly seems to be plan A.
I don't imagine it lasts very long. But, he IS talented.
Nailed it. This is pretty much my thought on it as well. Kyrie is stupid talented. He and Luka can and likely will work together very similar to Kyrie and LeBron in Cleveland. Kyrie will probably be motivated for a little bit before the cracks show. But, let's not pretend that Kyrie is stable. lol.
Thankfully, Kidd seems to be good with handling egos. Hopefully he's good with crazy also.
They need more moves before the deadline. Not big ones. Just a couple of minor moves for 3&D type wings. Morris will be a good add. I like his intensity in the Paint. A little thug now and then is what this team needs.
Losing DFS will hurt defensively. But, the offense needed a boost and Kyrie will definitely do that. That and more. He is a walking bucket and the best ball handler the league has likely ever seen.
All that said, this is exactly the kind of move that they needed to make. They played like they knew they had a ceiling and it wasn't a title. They need a shakeup of the roster. More than anything else it also shows Luka that they will go out and make it happen to get pieces around him.
I didn't like the trade to acquire KP. But, I do like this one. It may bomb but it was a move they needed to make. When you have a guy like Luka you have to take risks. I'm just glad the Mavs seem to have a great psychiatric staff.
(02-06-2023, 12:05 AM)BoredAssistant Wrote: [ -> ]Dammit!
Not that I am disagreeing with F Gump but Mavs CBA had the numbers wrong. The trade window is 125% of the salary and Westbrook DOES fit a quick-flip scenario.
MavsCBA was basing 120% for the received salary TPE.
No the Mavs are ALL-IN. The ONLY reason I could see moving off of this position is IF the Mavs insisted on an extension and KI's team refused to do so until the end of the season and the MBT had a flashback causing them to hit the sell button. Even then I doubt 3 days is enough.
My fear is that Dallas is in need of 1 more move to do this right, and there simply are no longer assets that can make it happen.
(02-06-2023, 03:03 AM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]Westbrook DOES fit a quick-flip scenario.
Thanks for the information. Though it likely wont happen it adds a little drama (for me) until the trade deadline.
(02-06-2023, 03:03 AM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]My fear is that Dallas is in need of 1 more move to do this right, and there simply are no longer assets that can make it happen.
They have Wood, THJ, Green, and Bullock as guys that should carry some value.
Apparently Wood is harder to move than most. THJ has had some inquiries. I don't think its out of the realm here that the Mavs can find a way to take 3 of those guys and turn them into at least 1 more good player.